Search Results (151)

In the digital communication ecosystem, micro-influencers have influenced public response during crises, especially in complex geopolitical contexts. This paper introduces the micro-influencer impact model (MIIM), a framework for analyzing the impact of micro-influencers on crisis communication. The MIIM integrates four components (micro-influencer characteristics, message framing and delivery, audience factors, and crisis context) offering a comprehensive approach to understanding micro-influencer dynamics during crises. Cross-conflict analysis spanning Ukraine–Russia, Sudan–Ethiopia, Armenia–Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Syria, and India–Pakistan tensions demonstrates the MIIM’s broad applicability across diverse geopolitical crises, showing how factors like perceived authenticity, niche expertise, narrative personalization, and audience digital literacy consistently shape public opinion and crisis response. The MIIM synthesizes crisis communication theories, social influence models, and digital media research, providing a sophisticated framework for studying the dissemination of information and public engagement during crises. The paper proposes theoretically grounded propositions on the impact of micro-influencers, encompassing perceived authenticity, narrative framing, and influence over time, thereby laying the groundwork for future empirical research. Implications for communication scholars, crisis managers, policymakers, and social media platforms are discussed, emphasizing the MIIM’s relevance to theory and practice in crisis communication. Full article

In 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely impacted the EU’s energy supply chain, and the EU’s natural gas import pattern has begun to reconstruct, and exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas trade and its driving factors is the basis for improving the resilience of its supply chain and ensuring the stable supply of energy resources. This paper summarizes the law of the change of its import volume by using the complex network method, constructs a multi-dimensional index system such as demand, economy, and security, and uses the geographic detector model to mine the driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas imports in EU countries and propose different sustainable development paths. The results show that from 2000 to 2023, Europe’s natural gas imports generally show an upward trend, and the import structure has undergone great changes, from pipeline gas dominance to LNG diversification. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the number of import source countries has increased, the market network has become looser, France has become the core hub of the EU natural gas market, the importance of Russia has declined rapidly, and the status of countries in the United States, North Africa, and the Middle East has increased rapidly; natural gas consumption is the leading factor in the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas imports, and the influence of import distance and geopolitical risk is gradually expanding, and the proportion of energy consumption is significantly higher than that of other factors in the interaction with other factors. Combined with the driving factors, three different evolutionary directions of natural gas imports in EU countries are identified, and energy security paths such as improving supply chain control capabilities, ensuring export stability, and using location advantages to become hub nodes are proposed for different development trends. Full article

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the global geopolitical landscape. Owing to its geographical proximity, the conflict has had a considerable impact on Europe. Marked by the professionalisation and democratisation of technology, it has underscored the growing significance of hybrid warfare, in which disinformation and propaganda serve as additional instruments of war. Within this context, the aim of this article is to examine the characteristics of false information related to the war between Russia and Ukraine in four European countries between 2022 and 2023. To this end, a content analysis of 297 hoaxes was conducted across eight fact-checking platforms, complemented by ten in-depth interviews with specialised professionals. The findings indicate that disinformation is characterised by viral audiovisual hoaxes, particularly on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), with a notable surge in disinformation flows at the onset of the invasion. In the early months, misleading content predominantly consisted of decontextualised images of the conflict, whereas a year later, the focus shifted to narratives concerning international support and alliances. The primary objective of this disinformation is to polarise public opinion against a perceived common enemy. The conclusions provide a broader and more nuanced understanding of wartime disinformation within the European context. Full article

Global supply chains face unprecedented challenges from geopolitical conflicts, climate change, economic volatility, and technological disruptions, highlighting the critical role of supply chain resilience as a core strategy for firms to maintain stability and competitive advantage. Grounded in the resource-based view and dynamic capability theory, this study examines how supply chain capability—that is, entrepreneurial leadership, collaborative capability, and digital transformation—enhances resilience, which mediates its impact on performance. Using structural equation modeling on survey data from Chinese firms, we find that resilience, comprising absorptive, reactive, and recovery capability, significantly mediates the relationship between supply chain capability and performance. Environmental uncertainty moderates this relationship, particularly in highly uncertain contexts, where resilience becomes a key driver of competitive advantage. Theoretically, this study extends dynamic capability theory by disaggregating resilience and exploring its mediating role. Practically, it emphasizes strengthening entrepreneurial leadership, collaborative capability, and digital transformation to improve resilience and performance in uncertain environments. Full article

Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility during crises, particularly COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prompting questions about how regional markets respond to such shocks. Previous research highlights the influence of crises on stock market volatility, focusing on individual events or global markets, but less is known about the comparative dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Our study investigated volatility and asymmetric behavior within GCC stock markets during both crises. Furthermore, the econometric model E-GARCH(1,1) was applied to the daily frequency data of financial stock market returns from 11 March 2020 to 31 July 2023. This study examined volatility fluctuation patterns and provides a comparative assessment of GCC stock markets’ behavior during crises. Our findings reveal varying degrees of market volatility across the region during the COVID-19 crisis, with Qatar and the UAE exhibiting the highest levels of volatility persistence. In contrast, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a distinct effect on GCC markets, with Oman exhibiting the highest volatility persistence and Kuwait having the lowest volatility persistence. This study provides significant insights for policymakers and investors in managing risk and enhancing market resilience during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Full article

Emergency displacement has become an increasingly salient global phenomenon, precipitated by the intensification of climate crises and persistent geopolitical conflicts. These events forcibly displace millions each year and generate complex social, political, and institutional challenges. While the literature on displacement is expanding, much of it centers on individual and household experiences, often overlooking the collective dimensions of displacement. This article addresses this gap by critically examining the concept of the displaced community, a term used to describe collectivities formed in host societies comprising individuals who have been forcibly uprooted. The article undertakes a conceptual investigation of displaced communities, seeking to define their constitutive features while accounting for their internal heterogeneity and contextual variability. To sharpen analytical clarity, the study contrasts displaced communities with healthy communities, thereby situating two polar ends of a continuum. Based on these two types of community, the question arises, “can displaced communities be healthy communities?” The article advances a conceptual model of a healthy displaced community, positing that such a construct extends conventional understandings of resilience by foregrounding the processual dynamics of recovery and adaptation. Specifically, it is argued that community health in contexts of forced displacement must be understood as the outcome of iterative processes intentionally involving community-based intervention, empowerment, and long-term sustainability. Drawing on published case studies and empirical accounts of work with displaced populations, the article demonstrates how these three pillars—community intervention, empowerment, and sustainability—are implemented in practice. It concludes with policy and practice recommendations designed to prevent further deterioration and promote the development of health and well-being within displaced communities. Full article

This study explores the role of religion as a state-promoted tool for political assimilation in Pakistan’s border provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. The study is based on five phases of fieldwork (2016–2024) combined with a thematic literature review. The research explores how religious strategies were deployed to forge a unified national identity in these regions. The findings reveal significant disparities in the effectiveness of these strategies. In KP, historical factors, cultural alignment, and geopolitical influences—particularly the Afghan conflict—largely facilitated the integration of Pashtun identity into Pakistan’s broader Islamic-national framework. Tools such as madrassa networks, education reforms, religious slogans, and state-backed Islamist parties effectively promoted religious nationalism. In contrast, religious assimilation efforts in Balochistan largely failed due to entrenched ethnic nationalism, economic exclusion, and political marginalization. Attempts to expand madrassas, delegitimize nationalist leaders as “anti-Islamic,” and support religious movements have been met with resistance, deepening distrust between the Baloch population and the state. The study found that religion alone cannot sustain national cohesion, particularly in regions with longstanding grievances and systemic inequalities. This research emphasizes the limitations of top-down, coercive assimilationist policies and underscores the necessity for more inclusive approaches, such as addressing economic disparities, recognizing regional identities, and promoting political participation as essential components for building a sustainable and unified nation. The study provides critical insights for policymakers, advocating for a shift from religious assimilation to strategies that prioritize justice, equity, and cultural accommodation, particularly in KPK and Balochistan. Full article

This study examines how the Russia–Ukraine conflict has affected the robustness of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade network—an essential component of the global energy transition. As environmental concerns intensify worldwide, LNG is gaining strategic importance due to its cleaner emissions and greater flexibility compared to traditional fossil fuels. However, the global LNG trade network remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, particularly due to its concentrated structure. In this context, we construct the LNG trade network from 2020 to 2023 and employ complex network analysis to explore its structural characteristics. We assess network robustness under various attack strategies, budget constraints, and phases of the conflict. Furthermore, we utilize the difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the conflict’s impact on network robustness. Our findings reveal that the global LNG trade network exhibits a distinct center–periphery structure and regional clustering. Although the network scale has continuously expanded, its connectivity still requires improvement. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has significantly weakened network robustness, with negative impacts intensifying across attack phases and under greater budget constraints. The optimal attack strategy causes the most severe degradation, followed by high-importance attacks, while random and low-importance attacks exert limited influence. Our DID-based analysis further confirms the conflict’s significant negative impact. To strengthen its resilience, the global LNG trade network should diversify its partnerships and invest in infrastructure enhancements. Full article

In the context of the globalization process, the interplay between geopolitical dynamics and international trade fluctuations has had significant effects on global economic and business stability. Recent crises, such as the US–China trade war, the invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted how changes in the structure of international trade can amplify the risks of business failure and reshape global competitiveness. This study aims to analyze in depth the transmission of business failure risk within the global trade network by assessing the sensitivity of industrial sectors in different countries to disruptive/critical/significant events. Through the integration of data from sources such as the World Trade Organization, national customs, and international relations research centers, a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach based on graph theory, random forest, multivariate regression models, and neural networks is developed. This quantitative system makes it possible to identify patterns of risk propagation and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of each country according to its commercial and financial structure. The mechanisms that relate geopolitical factors, such as trade sanctions and international conflicts, with the oscillations in the global market are analyzed. This study not only contributes to our understanding of how the macroeconomic environment influences business survival, but also provides analytical tools for strategic decision making. By providing an empirical and theoretical framework for early risk identification, it brings a novel perspective to academia and business, facilitating better adaptation to an increasingly volatile and uncertain business environment. Full article

The escalation of international geopolitical conflicts has triggered shocks in the global energy supply and demand pattern. The importance of increasing the resilience of energy systems to risk has become increasingly prominent. At the same time, energy demand has shown substantial growth, driven by the continuous expansion of economic scales. Improving utilization efficiency to enhance energy resilience while achieving coordinated development between economic growth and environmental protection has become a critical priority. This study takes pilot zones for green finance reform and innovations as a quasi-natural experiment and selects panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022 as the research sample. The empirical analysis constructs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to investigate the impact of pilot zones for green finance reform and innovations on energy resilience, while exploring their heterogeneity and mechanism of action. The research shows that: ① The policy of pilot zones for green finance reform and innovations has significantly enhanced China’s energy resilience capacity. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. ② Mechanism analysis shows that the pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation policy enhance energy resilience by elevating green innovation capacity and optimizing industrial structure. ③ Heterogeneity analysis reveals that policy effects exhibit significant regional disparities. The enhancement effect of pilot zones for green finance reform and innovation policy on energy resilience is more pronounced in the eastern region compared to the central and western regions. This research provides empirical evidence and theoretical support for local governments to refine green finance policy systems and explore novel pathways for optimizing energy resilience. Full article

Navigating the complexity of petroleum futures markets—marked by extreme volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and macroeconomic shocks—demands adaptive and risk-sensitive strategies. This paper explores an Adaptive Risk-sensitive Transformer-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (ART-DRL) framework to improve portfolio optimization in commodity futures trading. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been applied in equities and forex, its use in commodities remains underexplored. We evaluate DRL models, including Deep Q-Networks (DQN), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C), and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), integrating dynamic reward functions and asset-specific optimization. Empirical results show improvements in risk-adjusted performance, with an annualized return of 1.353, a Sharpe Ratio of 4.340, and a Sortino Ratio of 57.766. Although the return is below DQN (1.476), the proposed model achieves better stability and risk control. Notably, the models demonstrate resilience by learning from historical periods of extreme volatility, including the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) and geopolitical shocks such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022), despite testing commencing in January 2023. This research offers a practical, data-driven framework for risk-sensitive decision-making in commodities, showing how machine learning can support portfolio management under volatile market conditions. Full article

Using the OLS model with different quantiles of GPR, we aim to examine the impact of GPR, EPU, and VIX on monthly international crude oil prices, including WTI, BRENT, and DUBAI prices, while differentiating the impact on different levels of risks. Afterwards, we use the GARCH and MGARCH models to assess the impact of these metrics on the volatility of oil prices, and the spillover effects between oil prices with these three metrics as exogenous shocks. Our result indicates (i) global oil price is negatively affected by GPRT at a moderate level of risks in longer time intervals; (ii) GPR, EPU, and VIX affect oil price’s volatility, and (iii) there exists a stronger long-persistent spillover effect between BRENT and DUBAI, with these metrics as exogenous shocks, while WTI is not affected. Full article

In today’s environment of increased uncertainty, firms face new challenges in aligning sustainability orientation (SO) with financial performance (FP). In this non-ergodic world, past trends offer limited insight into the future due to economic instability, geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, environmental and social disasters, sustainability policy and commitment reversals, etc. To investigate this, we conducted a systematic literature review and topic modelling with a latent Dirichlet allocation of 117 English peer-reviewed articles in management, business, economics, and finance related to SO and FP *. These articles, obtained from Scopus and Web of Science, were open-access and had reached the final publication stage. By integrating resource-based, institutional, and stakeholder theories, we aim to identify the current understanding of the SO concept and the mechanisms linking it to FP. Our findings show that sustainability-oriented firms are better equipped to achieve financial success in a non-ergodic world. However, outcomes vary widely based on context and duration, with existing literature revealing positive and negative relationships or no impact. Topic modelling identified 17 themes, such as stakeholder engagement, business performance, sustainability-oriented innovation and corporate sustainability. We propose five theoretical propositions and forward-looking research directions based on these findings. As a result, our study contributes to the existing academic literature by providing an integrated resource-based, institutional, and stakeholder theory view of the relationship between SO and FP for organisational resilience and outlining future research directions for managing this relationship in a non-ergodic world. Full article

This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation along the politically sensitive Iraq–Turkey border within the Duhok Governorate between 2015 and 2024. Utilizing paired remote sensing (RS) and high-end machine learning (ML) methods, forest dynamics were simulated from Sentinel-2 imagery, climate datasets, and topographic variables. Seven ML models were evaluated, and XGBoost consistently outperformed the others, yielding predictive accuracies (R²) of 0.903 (2015), 0.910 (2019), and 0.950 (2024), and a low RMSE (≤0.035). Model interpretability was further improved through the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to estimate variable contributions and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to elucidate complex nonlinear interactions. The results showed distinct temporal shifts; climatic factors (rainfall and temperature) primarily influenced vegetation cover in 2015, whereas anthropogenic drivers such as forest fires (NBR), road construction (RI), and soil exposure (BSI) intensified by 2024, accounting for up to 12% of the observed forest loss. Forest canopy cover decreased significantly, from approximately 630 km² in 2015 to 577 km² in 2024, mainly due to illegal deforestation, road network expansion, and conflict-induced fires. This study highlights the effectiveness of an ML-driven RS analysis for geoinformation needs in geopolitically complex and data-scarce regions. These findings underscore the urgent need for robust, evidence-based conservation policies and demonstrate the utility of interpretable ML techniques for forest management policy optimization, providing a reproducible methodological blueprint for future ecological assessment. Full article

Background: The global space economy has grown remarkably, witnessing a 10-fold increase in active satellites during the last 15 years. This growth was accompanied by both the increase in geopolitical tensions feeding huge investments (the New Space Race), on the one hand, and the transformation, shifting from a domain historically dominated by government-led programs to one partially energized by commercial players and innovative business models (“New Space”), on the other hand. Objective: To assess the space economy’s current state and future prospects by considering its economic and social dimensions. Methods: Over 120 scholarly articles and “grey” literature positions (e.g., industry reports) were reviewed. The review was structured by a modified Structure–Conduct–Performance framework originally developed by industrial organization (IO) scholars. Findings: Outer space creates extremely harsh conditions for placing and operating objects in orbits, which results in high launching costs, steep reliability standards, capital intensity, and risks that are unmatched in most terrestrial industries. One of the main motivations to venture into this harsh domain was, and still is, the desire to dominate or the fear of being subjugated by others. This “original sin”, born of geopolitical rivalries, continues to cast a shadow over the space economy, channeling the majority of public space budgets into military-related programs. Moreover, many space technologies have a dual-use feature. Not surprisingly, governments are still the major source of demand, dominating midstream in the space value chain. This triad—harsh physics, great power rivalry, and a state-centric midstream—produces a specificity of the sector. In the recent two decades, new entrants (called “New Space”) have begun altering market structure, resulting in new conduct patterns focused on pursuits towards serial production, reusability, and lowering costs. Performance outcomes are mixed. While some efficiency gains are unprecedented, some doubts about market power and negative externalities arise. The assessment of the space economy’s performance is a challenge, as such, due to the blurred boundary between political objectives (supplying public goods, mitigating negative externalities) and economic optimization. Such trade-offs are becoming even more complicated considering the potential conflict between national and global perspectives. The paper offers a preliminary, descriptive study of the space economy through the lens of the modified S-C-P framework, laying basic foundations for the future, possibly more rigorous research of the increasingly important space economy. Full article