Search Results (204)

In the current context, where sustainability has become a global imperative, emerging markets have increasingly incorporated green finance as a strategic pillar to foster long-term growth and stability. This study examines the evolution, trends, and key challenges of sustainable investment in emerging economies, with a particular focus on the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. A systematic literature review was conducted using Scopus and Web of Science, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol, based on a sample of 399 articles published over the past decade. The findings reveal a significant expansion in academic output on ESG investments in emerging markets, with an average annual growth rate of 14.06% and an international co-authorship rate of 37.34%. China, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and the United States emerge as leading contributors, particularly since 2020. However, critical gaps persist, including inconsistencies in ESG ratings and the limited adaptation of ESG frameworks to local socioeconomic and institutional conditions. Future research should focus on strengthening public policy frameworks, designing effective fiscal incentives, assessing the distributive implications of green finance, and leveraging technologies such as fintech, blockchain, and artificial intelligence to enhance ESG rating consistency, transparency, risk measurement, and the overall efficiency of sustainable investments. Full article

This article examines whether Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) help Chinese cities absorb local economic shocks or increase urban vulnerability. Focusing on consumption-side risk sharing, it defines urban resilience as the extent to which household consumption is insulated from city-specific output shocks, rather than as employment recovery, production rebound, or long-term adaptation. Using panel data for 283 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2019, we test whether LGFV issuance weakens the transmission of idiosyncratic output fluctuations to local consumption. The results show that higher LGFV issuance is associated with a looser output–consumption linkage, suggesting a consumption-smoothing effect of debt-financed local intervention. Mechanism tests indicate that this effect operates mainly through wage growth, credit expansion, local output growth, and FDI growth, rather than direct welfare transfers. The relationship is stronger in cities with higher marketisation, lower policy uncertainty, and stronger fiscal capacity, while western cities display a distinct pattern. LGFVs appear more stabilising during relative growth slowdowns, but not under all weak growth conditions. Full article

This study investigates whether government spending stimulates economic growth by applying the Keynesian theoretical framework across varying economic conditions. The analysis uses annual data from 1980 to 2024 to explore how fiscal dynamics change over time and across regimes. It employs the NARDL model to evaluate asymmetric effects, the STAR model to capture regime dependence, and threshold Granger causality tests to assess causal relationships across spending regimes. These approaches enable a detailed examination of asymmetry, structural breaks, and nonlinear adjustment in the spending–growth relationship. The results show that Keynesian effects remain present across economic regimes but operate only in the short run without generating sustained long-term output gains. The absence of long-run cointegration is consistent with the presence of short-run dynamic multipliers, because these multipliers reflect temporary adjustments rather than permanent effects. The findings indicate that increases and decreases in government spending have proportionate effects on output, confirming a symmetrical Keynesian response. Government debt demonstrates a consistently negative and statistically robust influence on short-run growth. Corruption, measured using an index capturing governance quality, heightens policy ineffectiveness during periods of high public expenditure. Threshold causality tests reveal that government spending Granger causes economic growth in both low and high spending regimes, confirming the short-run stimulative potential of fiscal policy. Consequently, the study supports countercyclical fiscal interventions while emphasising the importance of prudent debt management and governance reforms to reduce fiscal risks. Full article

The rapid expansion of housing financialization (REF) has profoundly reshaped China’s subnational fiscal landscape, yet the dynamic nature of this relationship remains under-explored. This study investigates how the impact of REF on fiscal deficits (DB) evolves over time and identifies the specific transmission channels mediating this influence. First, we construct a multidimensional REF index by integrating enterprise, household, market, financial, and industry indicators via the fuzzy-TOPSIS method. A Markov Regime Switching model identifies three distinct volatility regimes, revealing that REF dynamics are highly sensitive to policy shifts and exhibit significant path dependency. Second, using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression model, we find that REF initially functioned as a fiscal stabilizer providing short-term revenue relief; however, as financialization deepened, REF transformed into a procyclical driver of deficit expansion. Third, we further decompose this mechanism, demonstrating that land finance (LAND) and local government debt (UID) amplify systemic fiscal fragility as dynamic mediating channels. Finally, due to the unsustainability of the current “real estate-land-debt” model, we propose policy interventions including the institutionalization of fiscal-debt firewalls, the formation of counter-cyclical fiscal risk reserve funds, and an accelerated transition toward a stable, tax-oriented revenue structure to mitigate systemic risks. Full article

In the context of long-term fiscal sustainability challenges and a persistently uncertain geopolitical environment, the developmental role of public finances is gaining increasing prominence. A reallocation in the structure of government spending constitutes a key instrument for strengthening the developmental role of public finances and advancing the sustainable development goals. This study introduces a measurable indicator of the developmental role of public finances and examines the validity of Wagner’s law. Based on a sample of euro area countries, Granger causality panel vector error correction model estimates indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship between general government expenditure and GDP per capita in the short-run, while the validity of Wagner’s law cannot be confirmed in the long-run. Productive government expenditure results suggest a weak indication of causality from productive government expenditure to GDP per capita. Effective fiscal policy should consider stabilisation needs, structural dynamics, and an appropriate institutional framework, while carefully managing the composition and sustainability of public spending and addressing developmental roles. Full article

Geopolitical shocks affect small open economies through multiple, correlated channels, yet applied CGE analyses typically impose the timing and persistence of those shocks by assumption. This paper develops a two-stage SVAR–CGE framework that links econometrically identified shock dynamics to general-equilibrium welfare evaluation for Thailand. First, a seven-variable narrative SVAR estimated on monthly data for 2000–2025, identified using the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, is used to recover the persistence of five transmission channels: oil prices, shipping costs, exchange rates, tourism demand, and private investment. Second, these estimated persistence parameters discipline the shock paths in a 22-sector recursive comparative-static CGE model calibrated to Thailand’s 2025 Social Accounting Matrix and simulated over three annual periods using a present-value integral transformation. Under the baseline shock bundle, GDP declines by 3.18% and CPI increases by 5.49%, with welfare losses exhibiting a bimodal distributional pattern—largest for Q1 through consumption-share exposure and for Q4 through tradeable-sector intensity—departing from the monotonically regressive pattern in single-channel analyses. Policy simulations show that targeted transfers calibrated to income rank dominate a universal fuel subsidy on fiscal efficiency, welfare effectiveness (welfare multiplier 1.377 vs. 0.334), and progressivity (1.00 vs. 0.94), at half the fiscal cost (1.48% vs. 2.97% of baseline GDP). An additional bimodal-targeting scenario (S4) at identical fiscal cost underperforms income-rank targeting on all metrics, confirming the latter as the robust second-best instrument under LES preferences with strong MPC heterogeneity. These rankings are supported by the central calibration of a 9-point sensitivity grid, with partial corroboration at off-baseline configurations. The paper contributes by showing that empirically disciplining inter-annual shock dynamics in CGE analysis can materially alter policy conclusions under correlated multi-channel external shocks, shifting the preferred response from sector-specific price subsidies toward demand-side household transfers. Full article

Public procurement systems are prone to risks such as collusion, contractual concentration, and irregular subcontracting, which undermine transparency and accountability. Traditional fiscal oversight approaches remain largely retrospective, limiting their ability to anticipate irregularities and prevent potential losses. Addressing the gap between theoretical machine learning models and real-world institutional deployment, this study introduces an applied system innovation that integrates two complementary approaches at a national scale: a Contractual Network Model (Mallas Contractuales) and a Predictive Risk Model for Contractors. The first component uses graph-based analytics, employing an Entity–Link–Property schema to represent relationships among entities, contractors, and contracts, thereby enabling the detection of structural patterns associated with collusive or anomalous behavior. The second component implements supervised machine learning models, trained on more than 16 million contracts and 2.6 million contractors from sources such as SECOP, RUES, DIAN, and national sanction registries. Models, including Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, were optimized via cross-validated hyperparameter search and evaluated on a separate hold-out set using ROC AUC and Gini metrics, achieving strong discriminatory performance under the available retrospective validation setting while maintaining operational interpretability. Both approaches were deployed in a modular architecture that integrated Databricks, i2 Analyst’s Notebook, and Power BI dashboards, providing interactive visualizations and risk scores at multiple levels. Together, these systems demonstrate how the convergence of graph analytics and predictive modeling enables proactive fiscal auditing, strengthens institutional capacity, and offers a replicable framework for public sector accountability. Full article

This paper is an investigation into the degree to which regulatory quality and economic policy uncertainty influence loan performance in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. The data for the study were drawn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, covering the period 2008Q1–2024Q4. Using quarterly panel data, we employ a Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) with the addition of a Quantile ARDL (QARDL) approach to account for non-homogeneous effects of different levels of non-performing loans. Empirical feedback reveals that sound and effective regulatory quality substantially reduces non-performing loans, most especially in fragile financial regimes. Also, it was established that monetary and fiscal and economic policy uncertainty always enhances non-performing loans, especially during stress conditions, and this is an indication of the asymmetric state-dependent nature of the policy risk in the weak banking systems. The study concludes that increasing the quality of the regulatory system should be a key objective of financial sector reforms in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). In addition, there is a need for regional coordination, such as regulatory harmonization and policy signalling, between countries in SSA, to reduce cross-border spillover effects and increase financial stability in a more interdependent financial system. Full article

Despite accounting for less than 0.03% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) face existential threats to their environment, livelihoods, and regional stability due to their heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels and disproportionate climate vulnerability. To address this “Justice Paradox,” this study utilises a Nexus Mapping framework to qualitatively synthesise the non-linear causal pathways between climate stressors and energy system vulnerabilities. Through an integrative thematic synthesis of literature and regional policy documents, the research identifies systemic bottlenecks, including the “fiscal trap” of post-disaster reconstruction, the “demand-utility paradox” of rising temperatures, and the logistical premiums of archipelagic energy distribution. The analysis suggests that energy decarbonisation represents a strategic opportunity to strengthen climate security across four dimensions: human, national, international, and ecological. To facilitate a secure transition, the study proposes a comprehensive “policy mix” of regulatory standards (sticks), economic de-risking through mechanisms such as Sovereign Green Bonds (carrots), and the institutionalisation of local technical sovereignty (sermons). This research offers an interpretive analytical framework for Pacific policymakers, arguing that decentralised, modular renewables may serve as a strategic shield against climatic instability and support the preservation of regional statehood. Full article

National risks constitute an important but still underexplored dimension of sustainable development, particularly in countries exposed to institutional fragility, demographic decline, and geopolitical uncertainty. This study identifies and prioritizes the ten most significant risks facing Bulgaria’s development over the next decade, with particular attention to their fiscal and macro-financial transmission channels. The analysis is based on a structured expert survey conducted among 82 specialists from academia, business, research institutions, civil society, and public practice. Respondents assessed 32 potential risks according to likelihood and impact using a five-point scale. A combined priority index was constructed as the product of mean likelihood and mean impact scores. The results show that the most significant risks are concentrated around institutional and systemic vulnerabilities, especially distrust in the rule of law, ineffective healthcare, disinformation, corruption, crisis of statehood, demographic decline, and deterioration in education and infrastructure. The findings indicate that these risks affect Bulgaria’s long-term development through five main fiscal and macro-financial channels: higher sovereign risk premia, expenditure pressure, weaker revenue capacity and investment efficiency, labor market deterioration, and broader financial fragility. The study contributes to the literature on sustainability governance, sovereign resilience, and fiscal sustainability by showing that national resilience depends not only on the management of external shocks, but also on the institutional capacity of the state to absorb long-term structural pressures. The practical applicability of the study lies in the possibility and necessity of conducting a content analysis of the main strategic documents for the country’s development in order to establish the extent to which the identified main risks are reflected in them, as conclusions about the situation and as countermeasure policies. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between energy indicators and human development in South Africa over the period 1980–2023, employing a quantitative research design. Using secondary annual time-series data, the study examines the effects of electricity generation, per capita energy consumption, Oil-related fiscal revenue share as a share of total government revenue, and total energy consumption on the Human Development Index. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed to assess long-run and short-run relationships, complemented by Error Correction Models (ECM) to capture dynamic adjustments. Unit root and stability tests, including CUSUM and CUSUMSQ, ensure the robustness of the estimations, while Granger causality tests explore predictive linkages among variables. The findings reveal a positive long-run relationship between electricity generation and total energy consumption with human development, highlighting the importance of reliable and broad-based energy utilisation for enhancing welfare outcomes. In contrast, per capita energy consumption and Oil-related fiscal revenue share exhibit negative long-run effects, suggesting inefficiencies in energy use and the fiscal risks associated with reliance on oil-related government revenue. Short-run dynamics indicate that temporary adjustments, such as infrastructure expansion and transitional fiscal spending, can produce immediate but contrasting effects on human development. Granger causality analysis identifies unidirectional predictive relationships from electricity generation and Oil-related fiscal revenue share to human development, while total energy consumption exhibits weak bidirectional causality. Diagnostic tests confirm the model’s reliability and parameter stability over the study period. The results imply that energy policies in South Africa should prioritise efficient and inclusive energy use, ensure effective allocation of energy-related fiscal resources, and complement energy system improvements with broader socio-economic interventions. This study contributes to the understanding of the energy–development nexus in emerging economies, offering evidence-based insights for policymakers seeking sustainable human development. Future research could extend the analysis to provincial or sectoral levels, consider emerging energy technologies, and explore alternative development proxies to capture more nuanced socio-economic dynamics. Full article

Although Non-Wood Forest Products can offer interesting economic opportunities for rural communities, little is known about their commercial harvesters. Our work aims to shed light on the labour profiles, their accessibility to new entrants, and attractiveness for future green jobs. Through in-depth interviews, we explored the five-capitals profile of commercial resin, cork, mastic foliage, chestnut, pine nut, and wild mushroom harvesters in Spain. We found either freelance harvesters or entrepreneurs with a small gang. Our data show a typical male collector, who started the activity through his social networks (Social Capital), and whose origin depends on the product and Spanish region. Some commercial female harvesters were found in mushroom, chestnut and resin harvesting. Social constructs around the masculinization of these activities may explain their limited attractiveness for women. The ratio of non-Spanish commercial harvesters correlates with the weight of migrants in the analysed regions. Only a subgroup of resin harvesters devotes most of their year to this single activity. The rest complement NWFP income with a main forestry (cork and pinenut) or non-forestry occupation (mushroom, chestnut and mastic). For the latter products, access to Natural Capital was found to be crucial for job progress, as non-landowners require administrative and/or negotiation capacities to secure harvesting permits. Human Capital differs across NWFPs, from simpler skills such as recognising marketable produce and handling easy tools (mushroom, chestnuts, pine nut ground gathering and mastic), to complex abilities needed to balance efficiency with minimising tree damage (in resin tapping, pinenut shaking, and cork extraction). Such specialised tools and machinery (Built Capital) typically act as a barrier to entry and advancement. These profiles are expected to help decision-makers to design instruments promoting and regulating commercial harvesting, and tackle their risks: local landowners in allocating harvesting rights to external collectors; regional policymakers as competent authorities in forest legislation; and state-level administration concerning cultural, fiscal and labour-permit aspects. Full article

This study investigates the impact of fiscal contractions on investment dynamics, with a particular focus on the risk of “investment collapses.” Using an unbalanced panel of 107 countries over the period 1960–2023, we construct an investment-collapse indicator based on extreme declines in investment share and identify fiscal contraction shocks based on movements in government spending relative to its historical floor. This study uses a distributed lag framework with Driscoll–Kraay robust standard errors to account for spatial and temporal dependencies while controlling for human capital, institutional quality, and output growth. We find evidence of intertemporal trade-offs, whereby fiscal contractions are associated with an increased likelihood of sharp declines in investment in the impact year. This collapse is followed by a reversal in the subsequent year, suggesting a stabilizing effect that prevents the persistence of extreme downside risk. The results are robust to conditional fixed-effects-based logit specifications and when subjected to stricter shock thresholds. Full article

Variations in government effectiveness across EU Member States are reflected in significant differences in socio-economic, fiscal and migration outcomes, which are rarely analysed within a single integrated framework. The analysis combines a structured bibliometric review with an empirical investigation based on EU-27 panel data covering the period 2015–2024, using co-occurrence and co-citation networks generated with VOSviewer to anchor the analytical framework in the literature. Government effectiveness, as measured by the Worldwide Governance Indicators, is analysed in relation to the risk of poverty and social exclusion (AROPE), GDP per capita, employment, social expenditure and migration dynamics. The results show that higher levels of institutional effectiveness are consistently associated with reduced social vulnerability, improved labour market performance and higher income levels in Member States. In contrast, the relationship with migration appears weaker and less robust across different econometric specifications. The interaction between government effectiveness and social spending also suggests that higher institutional quality can enhance the effectiveness of social policies in reducing vulnerability. Overall, the findings highlight the role of institutional quality as a conditioning factor of socio-economic outcomes, while indicating that the estimated relationships should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than strict causal effects. Full article

This paper examines how monetary policy actions, bank liquidity positions, and institutional heterogeneity shape interbank pricing in Rwanda. Using a bank–month panel dataset constructed from transaction-level records on the Rwanda Integrated Payment Processing System (RIPPS) for monthly data from 2018 to 2022, we estimate a dynamic fixed effects model of the interbank spread, defined as the difference between a bank’s volume-weighted borrowing rate and the Central Bank Rate (CBR). The findings show that policy rate changes are transmitted to the interbank market but with incomplete and gradual adjustment. Liquidity buffers lower funding costs in normal times, yet their stabilizing role weakens during system-wide stress, particularly evident during the COVID-19 shock, which generated a broad-based and persistent widening of spreads. Despite holding the bulk of system liquidity, domestically systemic banks do not receive preferential pricing once liquidity positions are controlled for. Robustness checks using a Basel-aligned liquidity risk index confirm that liquidity risk is consistently priced over time. These results suggest that strengthening liquidity forecasting, enhancing fine-tuning operations, improving coordination with fiscal cash-flow cycles, and adjusting corridor design to the policy stance would reinforce interbank market stability and improve the effectiveness of Rwanda’s price-based monetary policy framework. Full article