Search Results (113)

With rising environmental awareness, numerous firms are transitioning to green investment, such as low-carbon production. However, the consumer adoption of low-carbon products remains low due to transparency concerns. Many firms are leveraging blockchain to address information asymmetry in the supply chain, thereby building consumer confidence in low-carbon products. The purpose of this work is to provide decision support for business firms by analyzing the strategic choices regarding the manufacturer’s green investment and the e-retailer’s adoption of blockchain technology. Three strategy combinations are considered, including the baseline strategy combination without green investment and blockchain technology (NN), the strategy combination with only green investment (LN), and the strategy combination with both green investment and blockchain technology (LB). The optimal pricing and green level decisions are derived, and the conditions under which green investment and blockchain technology are beneficial to the supply chain members are examined. The findings suggest that the e-retailer can obtain the highest profit without adopting blockchain technology if it holds a substantial or extremely low market share, if the consumers’ low-carbon preference is at a low to medium level, or if the consumer green trust coefficient is high when the manufacturer implements the green investment strategy. When consumers exhibit a weak preference for low-carbon products, the strategy combination NN is optimal for the supply chain members. The strategy combination LB becomes optimal if the consumer green trust coefficient is near or below the moderate threshold, if the market share of a channel is neither extremely high nor low, or if consumers exhibit a strong preference for low-carbon products. Full article

In recent years, online retailing platforms (ORPs) have increasingly introduced private brand (PB) products as a new profit source, reshaping market dynamics and affecting their commission revenues. This shift creates a strategic trade-off for the platform: maximizing PB product profits while maintaining commission income from national brand (NB) retailers. This paper examines the platform’s pricing and quality strategies for PB products, as well as its incentives to introduce them. We develop a game-theoretic model featuring a platform and a retailer, and derive results through equilibrium analysis and comparative statics. Special attention is given to the platform’s strategy when market power is asymmetric and the PB product is homogeneous. The analysis yields three key findings. Firstly, the platform is always incentivized to introduce a PB product, regardless of its brand value. Even when direct profit is limited, the platform can leverage the PB product to increase competitive pressure on the retailer and boost commission revenue. Secondly, when the PB product has low brand value, the platform adopts a cost-saving strategy with low quality for extremely low brand value, and a function-enhancing strategy with high quality for moderately low brand value. Thirdly, when the PB product has high brand value, the platform consistently prefers a function-enhancing strategy. This study contributes to the literature by systematically characterizing the platform’s strategic trade-offs in introducing PB products, highlighting its varied pricing and quality strategies across categories, and revealing the critical role of brand value in supply chain competition. Full article

To address the challenges in forecasting crude oil and hot-rolled coil futures prices, the aim is to transcend the constraints of conventional approaches. This involves effectively predicting short-term price fluctuations, developing quantitative trading strategies, and modeling time series data. The goal is to enhance prediction accuracy and stability, thereby supporting decision-making and risk management in financial markets. A novel approach, the multi-dimensional fusion feature-enhanced (MDFFE) prediction method has been devised. Additionally, a data augmentation framework leveraging multi-dimensional feature engineering has been established. The technical indicators, volatility indicators, time features, and cross-variety linkage features are integrated to build a prediction system, and the lag feature design is used to prevent data leakage. In addition, a deep fusion model is constructed, which combines the temporal feature extraction ability of the convolution neural network with the nonlinear mapping advantage of an extreme gradient boosting tree. With the help of a three-layer convolution neural network structure and adaptive weight fusion strategy, an end-to-end prediction framework is constructed. Experimental results demonstrate that the MDFFE model excels in various metrics, including mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination, and sum of squared errors. The mean absolute error reaches as low as 0.0068, while the coefficient of determination can be as high as 0.9970. In addition, the significance and stability of the model performance were verified by statistical methods such as a paired t-test and ANOVA analysis of variance. This MDFFE algorithm offers a robust and practical approach for predicting commodity futures prices. It holds significant theoretical and practical value in financial market forecasting, enhancing prediction accuracy and mitigating forecast volatility. Full article

Green data centers (GDCs) are increasingly deployed worldwide to power digital infrastructure sustainably. These centers integrate renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, to reduce dependence on grid electricity and lower operational costs. When distributed geographically, GDCs face considerable challenges due to spatial variations in renewable energy availability, electricity pricing, and bandwidth costs. This paper addresses the joint optimization of operational cost and service quality for delay-sensitive applications scheduled across distributed green data centers (GDDCs). We formulate a multi-objective optimization problem that minimizes total operational costs while reducing the Average Task Loss Probability (ATLP), a key Quality of Service (QoS) metric. To solve this, we propose an Adaptive Firefly-Based Bi-Objective Optimization (AFBO) algorithm that introduces multiple adaptive mechanisms to improve convergence and diversity. The minimum Manhattan distance method is adopted to select a representative knee solution from each algorithm’s Pareto front, determining optimal task service rates and ISP task splits into each time slot. AFBO is evaluated using real-world trace-driven simulations and compared against benchmark multi-objective algorithms, including multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), simulated annealing-based bi-objective differential evolution (SBDE), and the baseline Multi-Objective Firefly Algorithm (MOFA). The results show that AFBO achieves up to 64-fold reductions in operational cost and produces an extremely low ATLP value ($1.875\times {10}^{-7}$) that is nearly two orders of magnitude lower than SBDE and MOFA and several orders better than MOPSO. These findings confirm AFBO’s superior capability to balance energy cost savings and Quality of Service (QoS), outperforming existing methods in both solution quality and convergence speed. Full article

Wholesale market prices of agricultural products, being essential to the daily lives of consumers, are closely tied to living standards and the overall stability of the agricultural market. The use of a single model to predict nonlinear and dynamic agricultural price time series often results in low accuracy due to suboptimal use of available information. To address this issue, this paper proposes a combined residual correction-based prediction method. Initially, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is used to optimize the penalty factors and kernel parameters of support vector regression (SVR) and the input weights and hidden layer biases of the extreme learning machine (ELM), thereby improving the convergence rate and predictive accuracy of these models. Subsequently, the induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator is applied to determine the weight vectors for the SSA-SVR and SSA-ELM models, reducing the fluctuating prediction accuracies of individual models at different times. Finally, the residuals of the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model are forecasted using a combined residual correction method that integrates SSA-SVR and SSA-ELM based on the IOWA operator, refining the GRNN’s forecast outcomes. An empirical analysis was performed by comparing the results of nine individual forecasting models on monthly pork prices in Beijing. The findings indicate that the SSA-SVR, SSA-GRNN, and SSA-ELM models outperformed the SVR, GRNN, and ELM models in terms of forecasting accuracy, respectively. This improvement is attributed to the parameter optimization of the SVR, GRNN, and ELM models through the SSA. The proposed model also showed superior forecasting accuracy compared to the nine individual models. The results confirm that the proposed model is an effective tool for predicting agricultural product prices and can be applied to forecast prices of other agricultural products with similar characteristics. Full article

The penetration of renewable energy, especially solar and wind, is increasing globally to promote a sustainable environment. However, in the Middle East, this momentum is slower compared to other regions, primarily due to abundant local fossil fuel reserves and historically low energy prices. This trend is shifting, with several countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), setting ambitious goals. Specifically, KSA’s Vision 2030 aims to generate 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Due to favorable conditions for solar and wind, various mega-projects have either been completed or are underway in KSA. This study analyzes the potential and reliability impact of these projects on the power system through a three-step process. In the first step, all major projects are identified, and data related to these projects, such as global horizontal irradiance, wind speed, temperature, and other relevant parameters, are collected. In the second step, these data are used to estimate the solar and wind potential at various sites, along with annual averages and seasonal averages for different extreme seasons, such as winter and summer. Finally, in the third step, a reliability assessment of power generation is conducted to evaluate the adequacy of renewable projects within the national power grid. This study addresses a gap in the literature by providing a region-specific reliability analysis using actual project data from KSA, which remains underexplored in existing research. Sequential Monte Carlo simulations are employed, and various reliability indices, including Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE), Loss of Load Frequency (LOLF), Energy Not Supplied per Interruption (ENSINT), and Demand Not Supplied per Interruption (DNSINT) are analyzed. The analysis shows that integrating renewable energy into KSA’s power grid significantly enhances its reliability. The analysis shows that integrating renewable energy into KSA’s power grid significantly enhances its reliability, with improvements observed across all reliability indices, demonstrating the viability of meeting Vision 2030 targets. Full article

This article is motivated by the challenge of the increasing power of e-commerce compared to traditional commerce. An online retail platform can provide both agency selling and reselling schemes, while the supplier can adopt one scheme or both. For a case study of Gree, we formulate four cases based on the channel structures to investigate the adoption strategies of platform schemes and their impacts on a traditional distributor, Jinghai. Firstly, we discuss the impacts of the slotting fee, the revenue-sharing proportion earned by the supplier, and the market competition intensity on the profits and decisions of members. A more intense market and a higher revenue-sharing proportion for the supplier will lead to a lower price in the traditional distribution channel. Secondly, we study how a supplier should employ the platform schemes with a traditional distributor. Particularly, the extremely low extra market demand driven by the online platform and the sufficiently low market intensity may not lead to a motivation for suppliers to adopt the agency scheme. Finally, Gree’s introduction of an agency scheme does not always spell disaster for traditional distributors, and it may not be such a bad thing for Jinghai to agree to Gree adding the online reselling scheme. Full article

This study explores integrating Bitcoin mining with lignocellulosic biorefineries to create an additional revenue stream. Profits from mining can help offset internal costs, reduce business expenses, or lower consumer prices. Using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, this study identifies key profitability drivers, such as electricity costs, hardware expenses, starting year, and operational time. Time emerged as an extremely sensitive factor and showed that delaying mining operations significantly raised production costs and the probability of profitable outcomes. In contrast, longer mining durations had a smaller yet sizable impact. Hardware costs, computational efficiency, and electricity prices also strongly influenced the outcomes. The majority of simulated events showed a loss. Moreover, the model showed that the marginal profitability of mining decreases over time. Nonetheless, the model demonstrated that under favourable conditions, it is possible to integrate Bitcoin mining into biorefineries and other productive ventures, thereby allowing for cost recovery using Bitcoin profits. For a biorefinery to mine Bitcoin and maximise cost recovery, it must start early, access low electricity prices, and preserve hardware capital characterised by low expenditure and high revenues. Finally, a discussion about the opportunities, risks, and regulations is highlighted. Full article

The accurate and stable prediction of crude oil prices holds significant value, providing insightful guidance for investors and decision-makers. The intricate interplay of factors influencing oil prices and the pronounced fluctuations present significant obstacles within the realm of oil price forecasting. This study introduces a novel hybrid model framework, distinct from the conventional methods, that integrates influencing factors for oil price prediction. First, using Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) extract mode components from crude oil prices. Second, using the Adaptive Copula-based Feature Selection (ACBFS), rooted in Copula theory, facilitates the integration of the influencing factors; ACBFS enhances both accuracy and stability in feature selection, thereby amplifying predictive performance and interpretability. Third, low-frequency modes are predicted through an Attention Mechanism-based Long and Short-Term Memory Neural Network (AM-LSTM), optimized using Bayesian Optimization and Hyperband (BOHB). Conversely, high-frequency modes are forecasted using Extreme Gradient Boosting Models (XGboost). Finally, the error correction mechanism further enhances the predictive accuracy. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the proposed hybrid prediction framework are the lowest compared to the benchmark model, at 0.7333 and 1.1069, respectively, which proves that the designed prediction structure has better efficiency and higher accuracy and stability. Full article

Climate change has emerged as a significant driver of the increasing frequency and severity of power outages. Rising global temperatures place additional stress on electrical grids that must meet substantial electricity demands, while extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires frequently damage vulnerable electrical infrastructure. Ensuring the resilient operation of distribution systems under these conditions poses a major challenge. This paper presents a comprehensive two-stage techno-economic strategy to enhance the resilience of modern distribution systems. The approach optimizes the scheduling of distributed energy resources—including distributed generation (DG), wind turbines (WTs), battery energy storage systems (BESSs), and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations—along with the strategic placement of remotely controlled switches. Key objectives include preventing damage propagation through the isolation of affected areas, maintaining power supply via islanding, and implementing prioritized load shedding during emergencies. Since improving resilience incurs additional costs, it is essential to strike a balance between resilience and economic factors. The performance of our two-stage multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming approach, which accounts for uncertainties in vulnerability modeling based on thresholds for line damage, market prices, and renewable energy sources, was evaluated using the IEEE 33-bus test system. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, highlighting its ability to improve resilience by enhancing system robustness, enabling faster recovery, and optimizing operational costs in response to high-impact low-probability (HILP) natural events. Full article

As a pillar industry of China’s economy, the real estate sector has been challenged by the increasing prevalence of housing vacancies, which negatively impacts market stability. Traditional vacancy rate estimation methods, relying on labor-intensive surveys and lacking official statistical support, are limited in accuracy and scalability. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel framework for assessing residential community-level housing vacancy rates through the integration of multi-source data. Its core is based on night-time lighting data, supplemented by other multi-source big data, for housing vacancy rate (HVR) estimation and practical validation. In the case study of Longquanyi District in Chengdu City, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) with low data resolution, the model estimates a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.14, which is highly accurate; (2) the average housing vacancy rate (HVR) of houses in Longquanyi District’s residential community is 46%; (3) the HVR rises progressively with the increase in the distance from the city center; (4) the correlation between the HVR of Longquanyi District and the house prices of the area is not obvious; (5) the correlation between the HVR of Longquanyi District and the time of completion of the communities in the region is not obvious, but the newly built communities have extremely high HVR. Compared to the existing literature, this study innovatively leverages multi-source big data to provide a scalable and accurate solution for HVR estimation. The framework enhances understanding of urban real estate dynamics and supports sustainable city development. Full article

In this work, Functional Data Analysis (FDA) is used to detect behavioral patterns in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) in reaction to the global crises caused by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. The oil price fluctuation curve is considered a covariate. The FDA’s distinctive ability is to represent stock values as smooth curves that evolve over time and provide new insights into the dynamics of the BVC. The methodology makes use of functional multivariate techniques applied to the smoothed curves of the closing prices of the main stocks of the BVC. The results show that the correlations of the oil curve with the average market curve change from almost null or low in the global period to extremely significant in time windows immediately after the beginnings of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, respectively. On the other hand, the velocity curves, which are used to evaluate the stock market volatility, show a pattern of synchronization of companies in the crisis periods. Furthermore, in these crisis periods, the companies in BVC showed a high synchronization with the Brent crude oil price. In conclusion, this work shows the usefulness of the FDA as a complement to time series analysis in the study of stock markets. The results of this research could be of interest to academic researchers, financial analysts, or institutions. Full article

Order execution is an extremely important problem in the financial domain, and recently, more and more researchers have tried to employ reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to solve this challenging problem. There are a lot of difficulties for conventional RL methods to tackle the order execution problem, such as the large action space including price and quantity, and the long-horizon property. As naturally order execution is composed of a low-frequency volume scheduling stage and a high-frequency order placement stage, most existing RL-based order execution methods treat these stages as two distinct tasks and offer a partial solution by addressing either one individually. However, the current literature fails to model the non-negligible mutual influence between these two tasks, leading to impractical order execution solutions. To address these limitations, we propose a novel automatic order execution approach based on the hierarchical RL framework (OEHRL), which jointly learns the policies for volume scheduling and order placement. OEHRL first extracts the state embeddings at both the macro and micro levels with a sequential variational auto-encoder model. Based on the effective embeddings, OEHRL generates a hindsight expert dataset, which is used to train a hierarchical order execution policy. In the hierarchical structure, the high-level policy is in charge of the target volume and the low-level learns to determine the prices for a series of the allocated sub-orders from the high level. These two levels collaborate seamlessly and contribute to the optimal order execution policy. Extensive experiment results on 200 stocks across the US and China A-share markets validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Full article

Gastrodia elata rhizomes have been applied as traditional medicinal materials for thousands of years. In China, G. elata f. elata (red flower and stem, Ge), G. elata f. viridis (green, Gv), and G. elata f. glauca (black, Gg) represent the primary cultivars in artificial cultivation. Although the annual output of G. elata amounts to 150,000 tons, only 20% is Gg. The long production period, low yield, and high quality of Gg led to its extremely high market prices. However, an effective method to identify this crude drug based solely on its morphological or chemical characteristics is lacking. In this study, the complete chloroplast genomes of three G. elata variants were sequenced using the Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. Another 21 chloroplast genomes from Gastrodia species, which have published in previous reports, were combined and analyzed together. Our results showed that larger genomic sizes, fewer long tandem repeats, and more simple sequence repeats were the major features of the Gg chloroplast genomes. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Gg samples were separately clustered in a subclade. Moreover, an accession-specific marker was successfully developed and validated for distinguishing additional rhizome samples. Our study provides investigations of the taxonomic relationships of Gastrodia species. The molecular marker will be useful for differentiating Gastrodia products on the market. Full article

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) is vital for participants in energy markets, particularly in regions with high integration of renewable energy sources (RESs), where price volatility poses significant challenges. The accurate forecasting of high and low electricity prices is particularly essential, as market participants seek to optimize their strategies by selling electricity when prices are high and purchasing when prices are low to maximize profits and minimize costs. In Japan, the increasing integration of RES has caused day-ahead electricity prices to frequently fall to almost zero JPY/kWh during periods of high RES output, creating significant profitability challenges for electricity retailers. This paper introduces novel custom loss functions and metrics specifically designed to improve the forecasting accuracy of extreme prices (high and low prices) in DAEPF, with a focus on the Japanese wholesale electricity market, addressing the unique challenges posed by the volatility of RES. To implement this, we integrate these custom loss functions into a Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) model, augmented by an ensemble learning approach and multimodal features. The proposed custom loss functions and metrics were rigorously validated, demonstrating their effectiveness in accurately predicting high and low electricity prices, thereby indicating their practical application in enhancing the economic strategies of market participants. Full article