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Search Results (2,182)

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Keywords = extreme climatic condition

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28 pages, 11045 KiB  
Article
Evaluating the Microclimatic Performance of Elevated Open Spaces for Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Cold Climate Zones
by Xuan Ma, Qian Luo, Fangxi Yan, Yibo Lei, Yuyang Lu, Haoyang Chen, Yuhuan Yang, Han Feng, Mengyuan Zhou, Hua Ding and Jingyuan Zhao
Buildings 2025, 15(15), 2777; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15152777 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
Improving outdoor thermal comfort is a critical objective in urban design, particularly in densely built urban environments. Elevated semi-open spaces—outdoor areas located beneath raised building structures—have been recognized for enhancing pedestrian comfort by improving airflow and shading. However, previous studies primarily focused on [...] Read more.
Improving outdoor thermal comfort is a critical objective in urban design, particularly in densely built urban environments. Elevated semi-open spaces—outdoor areas located beneath raised building structures—have been recognized for enhancing pedestrian comfort by improving airflow and shading. However, previous studies primarily focused on warm or temperate climates, leaving a significant research gap regarding their thermal performance in cold climate zones characterized by extreme seasonal variations. Specifically, few studies have investigated how these spaces perform under conditions typical of northern Chinese cities like Xi’an, which is explicitly classified within the Cold Climate Zone according to China’s national standard GB 50176-2016 and experiences both severe summer heat and cold winter conditions. To address this gap, we conducted field measurements and numerical simulations using the ENVI-met model (v5.0) to systematically evaluate the microclimatic performance of elevated ground-floor spaces in Xi’an. Key microclimatic parameters—including air temperature, mean radiant temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity—were assessed during representative summer and winter conditions. Our findings indicate that the height of the elevated structure significantly affects outdoor thermal comfort, identifying an optimal elevated height range of 3.6–4.3 m to effectively balance summer cooling and winter sheltering needs. These results provide valuable design guidance for architects and planners aiming to enhance outdoor thermal environments in cold climate regions facing distinct seasonal extremes. Full article
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11 pages, 1392 KiB  
Article
Microalgae Scenedesmus sp. as a Potential Inoculum in a CO2 Capture Device Against Changes in Environmental Temperature
by Yolanda Garrido, Joaquín Quesada-Medina, José David Sánchez, Ana Sánchez-Zurano, Eduardo Iniesta-López, Adrián Hernández-Fernández, Antonia Pérez de los Ríos and Francisco José Hernández-Fernández
Processes 2025, 13(8), 2479; https://doi.org/10.3390/pr13082479 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
This study investigates the viability of a native Scenedesmus sp. strain for use in a 50 L bubble column photobioreactor designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under simulated spring, extreme summer, and winter conditions. The experiments were conducted by placing the reactor in [...] Read more.
This study investigates the viability of a native Scenedesmus sp. strain for use in a 50 L bubble column photobioreactor designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under simulated spring, extreme summer, and winter conditions. The experiments were conducted by placing the reactor in a controlled climatic chamber, which allowed us to regulate the temperature, light intensity, and day–night cycles throughout the entire experiment. The results showed that under simulated spring conditions (a maximum temperature of 22 °C), the algal culture grew continuously for 61 days. Under extreme summer conditions (a maximum temperature of 39 °C), an initial drop in cell density was followed by recovery and continued growth over 75 days, although biomass production was 35% lower. Under winter conditions (a maximum temperature of 10 °C), the culture failed, indicating the need to prevent temperatures below 10 °C. In terms of biomass production, the culture densities achieved were 1.04 g L−1 and 0.68 g L−1 in the spring and summer trials, respectively. The Scenedesmus sp. strain demonstrated high carbon capture efficiency, tolerance to extreme heat, and sustained growth without the need for fresh medium or pH adjustments for over 60 days during spring and extreme summer conditions, confirming its potential for outdoor applications. Full article
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15 pages, 1337 KiB  
Article
Application of Prefabricated Public Buildings in Rural Areas with Extreme Hot–Humid Climate: A Case Study of the Yongtai County Digital Industrial Park, Fuzhou, China
by Xin Wu, Jiaying Wang, Ruitao Zhang, Qianru Bi and Jinghan Pan
Buildings 2025, 15(15), 2767; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15152767 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
Accomplishing China’s national targets of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality necessitates proactive solutions, hinging critically on fundamentally transforming rural construction models. Current construction practices in rural areas are characterized by inefficiency, high resource consumption, and reliance on imported materials. These shortcomings not only [...] Read more.
Accomplishing China’s national targets of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality necessitates proactive solutions, hinging critically on fundamentally transforming rural construction models. Current construction practices in rural areas are characterized by inefficiency, high resource consumption, and reliance on imported materials. These shortcomings not only jeopardize the attainment of climate objectives, but also hinder equitable development between urban and rural regions. Using the Digital Industrial Park in Yongtai County, Fuzhou City, as a case study, this study focuses on prefabricated public buildings in regions with extreme hot–humid climate, and innovatively integrates BIM (Building Information Modeling)-driven carbon modeling with the Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (G2SFCA) method for spatial accessibility assessment to investigate the carbon emissions and economic benefits of prefabricated buildings during the embodied stage, and analyzes the spatial accessibility of prefabricated building material suppliers in Fuzhou City and identifies associated bottlenecks, seeking pathways to promote sustainable rural revitalization. Compared with traditional cast-in-situ buildings, embodied carbon emissions of prefabricated during their materialization phase significantly reduced. This dual-perspective approach ensures that the proposed solutions possess both technical rigor and logistical feasibility. Promoting this model across rural areas sharing similar climatic conditions would advance the construction industry’s progress towards the dual carbon goals. Full article
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17 pages, 8464 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Aridity Index in Central Kazakhstan
by Sanim Bissenbayeva, Dana Shokparova, Jilili Abuduwaili, Alim Samat, Long Ma and Yongxiao Ge
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 7089; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157089 - 5 Aug 2025
Abstract
This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index [...] Read more.
This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air, Climate Change and Sustainability)
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12 pages, 562 KiB  
Review
Potential of the Use of Biostimulants in Lettuce Production
by Talys Moratti Lemos de Oliveira, Janyne Soares Braga Pires, Vinicius de Souza Oliveira, Ana Júlia Câmara Jeveaux Machado, Adriano Alves Fernandes, Lúcio de Oliveira Arantes and Sara Dousseau-Arantes
Plants 2025, 14(15), 2416; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14152416 - 4 Aug 2025
Viewed by 161
Abstract
Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) is one of the main leafy vegetables in the world, being present in several countries. Due to its composition, which includes a substance with antioxidant action and beneficial effects on health, it is consumed constantly. However, due to [...] Read more.
Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) is one of the main leafy vegetables in the world, being present in several countries. Due to its composition, which includes a substance with antioxidant action and beneficial effects on health, it is consumed constantly. However, due to ongoing climate change that has had global effects, the crop has been suffering a reduction in productivity and quality. Thus, technologies aiming to mitigate the effects of climate extremes have been developed. In lettuce production, biostimulants make it possible to improve the growth and sustainable development of plants. This is due to their ability to activate physiological and biochemical processes in plants, resulting in an increase in the production of bioactive compounds such as vitamins, amino acids, and antioxidants. In addition, biostimulants contribute to improving the nutritional quality of lettuces, making them more resistant and adapted to different environmental conditions, resulting in a more sustainable development for the crop. This review aims to compile and discuss the available scientific evidence on the use of biostimulants in lettuce cultivation, addressing their mechanisms of action, the types of substances used, the results obtained in different cultivation systems, and their potential to promote more efficient and adaptable agriculture in the face of environmental changes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Biostimulant Use on Horticultural Crops)
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18 pages, 1256 KiB  
Article
Algae Extracts and Zeolite Modulate Plant Growth and Enhance the Yield of Tomato Solanum lycopersicum L. Under Suboptimum and Deficient Soil Water Content
by José Antonio Miranda-Rojas, Aurelio Pedroza-Sandoval, Isaac Gramillo-Ávila, Ricardo Trejo-Calzada, Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen and Luis Gerardo Yáñez-Chávez
Horticulturae 2025, 11(8), 902; https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae11080902 (registering DOI) - 3 Aug 2025
Viewed by 354
Abstract
Drought and water scarcity are some of the most important challenges facing agricultural producers in dry environments. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of algae extract and zeolite in terms of their biostimulant action on water stress tolerance to obtain better growth [...] Read more.
Drought and water scarcity are some of the most important challenges facing agricultural producers in dry environments. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of algae extract and zeolite in terms of their biostimulant action on water stress tolerance to obtain better growth and production of tomato Lycopersicum esculentum L. grown in an open field under suboptimum and deficient soil moisture content. Large plots had a suboptimum soil moisture content (SSMC) of 25% ± 2 [28% below field capacity (FC)] and deficient soil moisture content (DSMC) of 20% ± 2 [11% above permanent wilting point (PWP)]; both soil moisture ranges were based on field capacity FC (32%) and PWP (18%). Small plots had four treatments: algae extract (AE) 50 L ha−1 and zeolite (Z) 20 t ha−1, a combination of both products (AE + Z) 25 L ha−1 and 10 t h−1, and a control (without application of either product). By applying AE, Z, and AE + Z, plant height, plant vigor, and chlorophyll index were significantly higher compared to the control by 20.3%, 10.5%, and 22.3%, respectively. The effect on relative water content was moderate—only 2.6% higher than the control applying AE, while the best treatment for the photosynthesis variable was applying Z, with a value of 20.9 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1, which was 18% higher than the control. Consequently, tomato yield was also higher compared to the control by 333% and 425% when applying AE and Z, respectively, with suboptimum soil moisture content. The application of the biostimulants did not show any mitigating effect on water stress under soil water deficit conditions close to permanent wilting. These findings are relevant to water-scarce agricultural areas, where more efficient irrigation water use is imperative. Plant biostimulation through organic and inorganic extracts plays an important role in mitigating environmental stresses such as those caused by water shortages, leading to improved production in vulnerable agricultural areas with extreme climates. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optimized Irrigation and Water Management in Horticultural Production)
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23 pages, 5566 KiB  
Article
Response Mechanisms of Vegetation Productivity to Water Variability in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas of China: A Decoupling Analysis of Soil Moisture and Precipitation
by Zijian Liu, Hao Lin, Hongrui Li, Mengyang Li, Peng Zhou, Ziyu Wang and Jiqiang Niu
Atmosphere 2025, 16(8), 933; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16080933 (registering DOI) - 3 Aug 2025
Viewed by 147
Abstract
Arid and semi-arid areas serve a critical regulatory function within the global carbon cycle. Understanding the response mechanisms of vegetation productivity to variations in moisture availability represents a fundamental scientific challenge in elucidating terrestrial carbon dynamics. This study systematically disentangled the respective influences [...] Read more.
Arid and semi-arid areas serve a critical regulatory function within the global carbon cycle. Understanding the response mechanisms of vegetation productivity to variations in moisture availability represents a fundamental scientific challenge in elucidating terrestrial carbon dynamics. This study systematically disentangled the respective influences of summer surface soil moisture (RSM) and precipitation (PRE) on gross primary productivity (GPP) across arid and semi-arid regions of China from 2000 to 2022. Utilizing GPP datasets alongside correlation analysis, ridge regression, and data binning techniques, the investigation yielded several key findings: (1) Both GPP and RSM exhibited significant upward trends within the study area, whereas precipitation showed no statistically significant trend; notably, GPP demonstrated the highest rate of increase at 0.455 Cg m−2 a−1. (2) Decoupling analysis indicated a coupled relationship between RSM and PRE; however, their individual effects on GPP were not merely a consequence of this coupling. Controlling for evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture interference, the analysis revealed that under conditions of elevated RSM, the average increase in summer–autumn GPP (SAGPP) was 0.249, significantly surpassing the increase observed under high-PRE conditions (−0.088). Areas dominated by RSM accounted for 62.13% of the total study region. Furthermore, examination of the aridity gradient demonstrated that the predominance of RSM intensified with increasing aridity, reaching its peak influence in extremely arid zones. This research provides a quantitative assessment of the differential impacts of RSM and PRE on vegetation productivity in China’s arid and semi-arid areas, thereby offering a vital theoretical foundation for improving predictions of terrestrial carbon sink dynamics under future climate change scenarios. Full article
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25 pages, 2786 KiB  
Article
Xylem Functional Anatomy of Pure-Species and Interspecific Hybrid Clones of Eucalyptus Differing in Drought Resistance
by José Gándara, Matías Nión, Silvia Ross, Jaime González-Tálice, Paolo Tabeira and María Elena Fernández
Forests 2025, 16(8), 1267; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081267 - 2 Aug 2025
Viewed by 214
Abstract
Climate extremes threaten the resilience of Eucalyptus plantations, yet hybridization with drought-tolerant species may enhance stress tolerance. This study analyzed xylem anatomical and functional drought responses in commercial Eucalyptus grandis (GG) clones and hybrids: E. grandis × camaldulensis (GC), E. grandis × tereticornis [...] Read more.
Climate extremes threaten the resilience of Eucalyptus plantations, yet hybridization with drought-tolerant species may enhance stress tolerance. This study analyzed xylem anatomical and functional drought responses in commercial Eucalyptus grandis (GG) clones and hybrids: E. grandis × camaldulensis (GC), E. grandis × tereticornis (GT), and E. grandis × urophylla (GU1, GU2). We evaluated vessel traits (water transport), fibers (mechanical support), and wood density (D) in stems and branches. Theoretical stem hydraulic conductivity (kStheo), vessel lumen fraction (F), vessel composition (S), and associations with previous hydraulic and growth data were assessed. While general drought responses occurred, GC had the most distinct xylem profile. This may explain it having the highest performance in different irrigation conditions. Red gum hybrids (GC, GT) maintained kStheo under drought, with stable F and a narrower vessel size, especially in branches. Conversely, GG and GU2 reduced F and S; and stem kStheo declined for a similar F in these clones, indicating vascular reconfiguration aligning the stem with the branch xylem. Almost all clones increased D under drought in any organ, with the highest increase in red gum hybrids. These results reveal diverse anatomical adjustments to drought among clones, partially explaining their growth responses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecophysiology and Biology)
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9 pages, 3035 KiB  
Commentary
A Lens on Fire Risk Drivers: The Role of Climate and Vegetation Index Anomalies in the May 2025 Manitoba Wildfires
by Afshin Amiri, Silvio Gumiere and Hossein Bonakdari
Earth 2025, 6(3), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030088 (registering DOI) - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 88
Abstract
In early May 2025, extreme wildfires swept across Manitoba, Canada, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures, prolonged drought, and stressed vegetation. We explore how multi-source satellite indicators—such as anomalies in snow cover, precipitation, temperature, vegetation indices, and soil moisture in April–May—jointly signal landscape preconditioning [...] Read more.
In early May 2025, extreme wildfires swept across Manitoba, Canada, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures, prolonged drought, and stressed vegetation. We explore how multi-source satellite indicators—such as anomalies in snow cover, precipitation, temperature, vegetation indices, and soil moisture in April–May—jointly signal landscape preconditioning for fire, highlighting the potential of these compound anomalies to inform fire risk awareness in boreal regions. Results indicate that rainfall deficits and diminished snowpack significantly reduced soil moisture, which subsequently decreased vegetative greenness and created a flammable environment prior to ignition. This concept captures how multiple moderate anomalies, when occurring simultaneously, can converge to create high-impact fire conditions that would not be flagged by individual thresholds alone. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring to enhance preparedness in boreal regions under accelerating climate change. Full article
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20 pages, 16348 KiB  
Article
The Recent Extinction of the Carihuairazo Volcano Glacier in the Ecuadorian Andes Using Multivariate Analysis Techniques
by Pedro Vicente Vaca-Cárdenas, Eduardo Antonio Muñoz-Jácome, Maritza Lucia Vaca-Cárdenas, Diego Francisco Cushquicullma-Colcha and José Guerrero-Casado
Earth 2025, 6(3), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030086 (registering DOI) - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 465
Abstract
Climate change has accelerated the retreat of Andean glaciers, with significant recent losses in the tropical Andes. This study evaluates the extinction of the Carihuairazo volcano glacier (Ecuador), quantifying its area from 1312.5 m2 in September 2023 to 101.2 m2 in [...] Read more.
Climate change has accelerated the retreat of Andean glaciers, with significant recent losses in the tropical Andes. This study evaluates the extinction of the Carihuairazo volcano glacier (Ecuador), quantifying its area from 1312.5 m2 in September 2023 to 101.2 m2 in January 2024, its thickness (from 2.5 m to 0.71 m), and its volume (from 2638.85 m3 to 457.18 m3), before its complete deglaciation in February 2024; this rapid melting and its small size classify it as a glacierette. Multivariate analyses (PCA and biclustering) were performed to correlate climatic variables (temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind) with glacier surface and thickness. The PCA explained 70.26% of the total variance, with Axis 1 (28.01%) associated with extreme thermal conditions (temperatures up to 8.18 °C and radiation up to 16.14 kJ m−2 day−1), which probably drove its disappearance. Likewise, Axis 2 (21.56%) was related to favorable hydric conditions (precipitation between 39 and 94 mm) during the initial phase of glacier monitoring. Biclustering identified three groups of variables: Group 1 (temperature, solar radiation, and vapor pressure) contributed most to deglaciation; Group 2 (precipitation, humidity) apparently benefited initial stability; and Group 3 (wind) played a secondary role. These results, validated through in situ measurements, provide scientific evidence of the disappearance of the Carihuairazo volcano glacier by February 2024. They also corroborate earlier projections that anticipated its extinction by the middle of this decade. The early disappearance of this glacier highlights the vulnerability of small tropical Andean glaciers and underscores the urgent need for water security strategies focused on management, adaptation, and resilience. Full article
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23 pages, 1447 KiB  
Article
Heat Risk Perception and Vulnerability in Puerto Rico: Insights for Climate Adaptation in the Caribbean
by Brenda Guzman-Colon, Zack Guido, Claudia P. Amaya-Ardila, Laura T. Cabrera-Rivera and Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2025, 22(8), 1197; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22081197 - 31 Jul 2025
Viewed by 236
Abstract
Extreme heat poses growing health risks in tropical regions, yet public perception of this threat remains understudied in the Caribbean. This study examines how residents in Puerto Rico perceived heat-related health risks and how these perceptions relate to vulnerability and protective behaviors during [...] Read more.
Extreme heat poses growing health risks in tropical regions, yet public perception of this threat remains understudied in the Caribbean. This study examines how residents in Puerto Rico perceived heat-related health risks and how these perceptions relate to vulnerability and protective behaviors during the extreme heat events of the summer of 2020. We conducted a cross-sectional telephone survey of 500 adults across metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Puerto Rico, using stratified probability sampling. The questionnaire assessed heat risk perception, sociodemographic characteristics, health status, prior heat exposure, and heat-related behaviors. While most participants expressed concern about climate change and high temperatures, fewer than half perceived heat as a high level of personal health risk. Higher levels of risk perception were significantly associated with being male, aged 50–64, unemployed, and in fair health, having multiple chronic conditions, and prior experience with heat-related symptoms. Those with symptoms were nearly five times more likely to report high levels of risk perception (OR = 4.94, 95% CI: 2.93–8.34). In contrast, older adults (65+), despite their higher level of vulnerability, reported lower levels of risk perception and fewer symptoms. Nighttime heat exposure was widespread and strongly associated with heat-related symptoms. Common coping strategies included the use of fans and air conditioning, though economic constraints and infrastructure instability limited access. The findings highlight the disparity between actual and perceived vulnerability, particularly among older adults. Public health strategies should focus on risk communication tailored to vulnerable groups and address barriers to heat adaptation. Strengthening heat resilience in Puerto Rico requires improved infrastructure, equitable access to cooling, and targeted outreach. Full article
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26 pages, 3711 KiB  
Article
Probability Characteristics of High and Low Flows in Slovakia: A Comprehensive Hydrological Assessment
by Pavla Pekárová, Veronika Bačová Mitková and Dana Halmová
Hydrology 2025, 12(8), 199; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080199 - 31 Jul 2025
Viewed by 259
Abstract
Frequency analysis is essential for designing hydraulic structures and managing water resources, as it helps assess hydrological extremes. However, changes in river basins can impact their accuracy, complicating the link between discharge and return periods. This study aims to comprehensively assess the probability [...] Read more.
Frequency analysis is essential for designing hydraulic structures and managing water resources, as it helps assess hydrological extremes. However, changes in river basins can impact their accuracy, complicating the link between discharge and return periods. This study aims to comprehensively assess the probability characteristics of long-term M-day maximum/minimum discharges in the Carpathian region of Slovakia. We analyze the long-term data from 26 gauging stations covering 90 years of observation. Slovak rivers show considerable intra-annual variability, especially between the summer–autumn (SA) and winter–spring (WS) seasons. To allow consistent comparisons, we apply a uniform methodology to estimate T-year daily maximum and minimum specific discharges over durations of 1 and 7 days for both seasons. Our findings indicate that 1-day maximum specific discharges are generally higher during the SA season compared to the WS season. The 7-day minimum specific discharges are lower during the WS season compared to the SA season. Slovakia’s diverse orographic and climatic conditions cause significant spatial variability in extreme discharges. However, the estimated T-year 7-day minimum and 1-day maximum specific discharges, based on the mean specific discharge and the altitude of the water gauge, exhibit certain nonlinear dependences. These relationships could support the indirect estimation of T-year M-day discharges in regions with similar runoff characteristics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources and Risk Management)
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32 pages, 17155 KiB  
Article
Machine Learning Ensemble Methods for Co-Seismic Landslide Susceptibility: Insights from the 2015 Nepal Earthquake
by Tulasi Ram Bhattarai and Netra Prakash Bhandary
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(15), 8477; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15158477 (registering DOI) - 30 Jul 2025
Viewed by 224
Abstract
The Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake of 25 April 2015 triggered over 25,000 landslides across central Nepal, with 4775 events concentrated in Gorkha District alone. Despite substantial advances in landslide susceptibility mapping, existing studies often overlook the compound role of post-seismic rainfall and lack [...] Read more.
The Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake of 25 April 2015 triggered over 25,000 landslides across central Nepal, with 4775 events concentrated in Gorkha District alone. Despite substantial advances in landslide susceptibility mapping, existing studies often overlook the compound role of post-seismic rainfall and lack robust spatial validation. To address this gap, we validated an ensemble machine learning framework for co-seismic landslide susceptibility modeling by integrating seismic, geomorphological, hydrological, and anthropogenic variables, including cumulative post-seismic rainfall. Using a balanced dataset of 4775 landslide and non-landslide instances, we evaluated the performance of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models through spatial cross-validation, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) explainability, and ablation analysis. The RF model outperformed all others, achieving an accuracy of 87.9% and a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.94, while XGBoost closely followed (AUC = 0.93). Ensemble models collectively classified over 95% of observed landslides into High and Very High susceptibility zones, demonstrating strong spatial reliability. SHAP analysis identified elevation, proximity to fault, peak ground acceleration (PGA), slope, and rainfall as dominant predictors. Notably, the inclusion of post-seismic rainfall substantially improved recall and F1 scores in ablation experiments. Spatial cross-validation revealed the superior generalizability of ensemble models under heterogeneous terrain conditions. The findings underscore the value of integrating post-seismic hydrometeorological factors and spatial validation into susceptibility assessments. We recommend adopting ensemble models, particularly RF, for operational hazard mapping in earthquake-prone mountainous regions. Future research should explore the integration of dynamic rainfall thresholds and physics-informed frameworks to enhance early warning systems and climate resilience. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Earth Sciences)
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28 pages, 6962 KiB  
Article
Mapping Drought Incidents in the Mediterranean Region with Remote Sensing: A Step Toward Climate Adaptation
by Aikaterini Stamou, Aikaterini Bakousi, Anna Dosiou, Zoi-Eirini Tsifodimou, Eleni Karachaliou, Ioannis Tavantzis and Efstratios Stylianidis
Land 2025, 14(8), 1564; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081564 - 30 Jul 2025
Viewed by 482
Abstract
The Mediterranean region, identified by scientists as a ‘climate hot spot’, is experiencing warmer and drier conditions, along with an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. One such extreme phenomena is droughts. The recent wildfires in this region are [...] Read more.
The Mediterranean region, identified by scientists as a ‘climate hot spot’, is experiencing warmer and drier conditions, along with an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. One such extreme phenomena is droughts. The recent wildfires in this region are a concerning consequence of this phenomenon, causing severe environmental damage and transforming natural landscapes. However, droughts involve a two-way interaction: On the one hand, climate change and various human activities, such as urbanization and deforestation, influence the development and severity of droughts. On the other hand, droughts have a significant impact on various sectors, including ecology, agriculture, and the local economy. This study investigates drought dynamics in four Mediterranean countries, Greece, France, Italy, and Spain, each of which has experienced severe wildfire events in recent years. Using satellite-based Earth observation data, we monitored drought conditions across these regions over a five-year period that includes the dates of major wildfires. To support this analysis, we derived and assessed key indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI). High-resolution satellite imagery processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform enabled the spatial and temporal analysis of these indicators. Our findings reveal that, in all four study areas, peak drought conditions, as reflected in elevated NDDI values, were observed in the months leading up to wildfire outbreaks. This pattern underscores the potential of satellite-derived indices for identifying regional drought patterns and providing early signals of heightened fire risk. The application of GEE offered significant advantages, as it allows efficient handling of long-term and large-scale datasets and facilitates comprehensive spatial analysis. Our methodological framework contributes to a deeper understanding of regional drought variability and its links to extreme events; thus, it could be a valuable tool for supporting the development of adaptive management strategies. Ultimately, such approaches are vital for enhancing resilience, guiding water resource planning, and implementing early warning systems in fire-prone Mediterranean landscapes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Land and Drought: An Environmental Assessment Through Remote Sensing)
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24 pages, 1508 KiB  
Article
Genomic Prediction of Adaptation in Common Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) × Tepary Bean (P. acutifolius A. Gray) Hybrids
by Felipe López-Hernández, Diego F. Villanueva-Mejía, Adriana Patricia Tofiño-Rivera and Andrés J. Cortés
Int. J. Mol. Sci. 2025, 26(15), 7370; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms26157370 - 30 Jul 2025
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Abstract
Climate change is jeopardizing global food security, with at least 713 million people facing hunger. To face this challenge, legumes as common beans could offer a nature-based solution, sourcing nutrients and dietary fiber, especially for rural communities in Latin America and Africa. However, [...] Read more.
Climate change is jeopardizing global food security, with at least 713 million people facing hunger. To face this challenge, legumes as common beans could offer a nature-based solution, sourcing nutrients and dietary fiber, especially for rural communities in Latin America and Africa. However, since common beans are generally heat and drought susceptible, it is imperative to speed up their molecular introgressive adaptive breeding so that they can be cultivated in regions affected by extreme weather. Therefore, this study aimed to couple an advanced panel of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) × tolerant Tepary bean (P. acutifolius A. Gray) interspecific lines with Bayesian regression algorithms to forecast adaptation to the humid and dry sub-regions at the Caribbean coast of Colombia, where the common bean typically exhibits maladaptation to extreme heat waves. A total of 87 advanced lines with hybrid ancestries were successfully bred, surpassing the interspecific incompatibilities. This hybrid panel was genotyped by sequencing (GBS), leading to the discovery of 15,645 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Three yield components (yield per plant, and number of seeds and pods) and two biomass variables (vegetative and seed biomass) were recorded for each genotype and inputted in several Bayesian regression models to identify the top genotypes with the best genetic breeding values across three localities on the Colombian coast. We comparatively analyzed several regression approaches, and the model with the best performance for all traits and localities was BayesC. Also, we compared the utilization of all markers and only those determined as associated by a priori genome-wide association studies (GWAS) models. Better prediction ability with the complete SNP set was indicative of missing heritability as part of GWAS reconstructions. Furthermore, optimal SNP sets per trait and locality were determined as per the top 500 most explicative markers according to their β regression effects. These 500 SNPs, on average, overlapped in 5.24% across localities, which reinforced the locality-dependent nature of polygenic adaptation. Finally, we retrieved the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) and selected the top 10 genotypes for each trait and locality as part of a recommendation scheme targeting narrow adaption in the Caribbean. After validation in field conditions and for screening stability, candidate genotypes and SNPs may be used in further introgressive breeding cycles for adaptation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Breeding and Genetics: New Findings and Perspectives)
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