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Search Results (4,851)

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Keywords = evaluation of policy effects

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21 pages, 30397 KB  
Article
Machine Learning-Based Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Youth Marriage Decision
by Jinshuo Zhang, Chang Lu, Xiaofang Wang, Dongyang Guo, Chao Bi and Xingda Ju
Behav. Sci. 2025, 15(12), 1750; https://doi.org/10.3390/bs15121750 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
This study investigates the key factors that influence marriage decision among Chinese youth using machine learning techniques. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (2018–2020), we extracted 1700 samples and filtered 26 significant variables. Seven machine learning algorithms were evaluated, with CatBoost [...] Read more.
This study investigates the key factors that influence marriage decision among Chinese youth using machine learning techniques. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (2018–2020), we extracted 1700 samples and filtered 26 significant variables. Seven machine learning algorithms were evaluated, with CatBoost emerging as the most effective. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis revealed that work-related variables were the most strongly associated with predictions, accounting for 30% of the predictive power, followed by other factors such as demographic and education. Notably, we found that commute time and working hours exceeding 50 min/hours were negatively associated with marriage likelihood, while job satisfactions showed a non-linear relationship with marriage decision. The findings highlight the determinant of work–life balance in marriage decision and the complexity and nonlinear relationship in social decision-making. The objective of this study is to provide scientific data support for policy makers in an era of declining marriage rates in China. This study not only reveals the key factors affecting marriage decision but also provides critical evidence-based support for policymakers to prioritize resource allocation and formulate targeted policies amid declining marriage rates in China. Full article
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10 pages, 1033 KB  
Article
Work–Life Integration, Professional Stress, and Gender Disparities in the Urological Workforce: Findings from a Worldwide Cross-Sectional Study
by Antonio Minore, Loris Cacciatore, Luca Cindolo, Stavros Gravas, Jean de la Rosette, Maria Pilar Laguna, Zhenjie Wu, Troy Gianduzzo, Claudia Gonzalez Alfano, Helen O'Connell, Leticia Ruiz, Nikolaos Liakos, Carmen Gonzalez Enguita, Jose Ignacio Nolazco, Dean Elterman and Silvia Secco
Soc. Int. Urol. J. 2025, 6(6), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/siuj6060074 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Physician burnout and mental health issues are widespread, with over 50% experiencing burnout and nearly 25% suffering from depression, trends that have worsened since 2018. High-demand specialties like urology face additional stressors, including increasing workloads and technological changes. Gender disparities further exacerbate [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Physician burnout and mental health issues are widespread, with over 50% experiencing burnout and nearly 25% suffering from depression, trends that have worsened since 2018. High-demand specialties like urology face additional stressors, including increasing workloads and technological changes. Gender disparities further exacerbate these challenges, with female urologists reporting higher burnout and work–life balance struggles. To evaluate perceptions of work–life balance, career satisfaction, and workplace experiences among urologists worldwide, and to provide potential strategies to improve physician well-being, promote gender equity, and support the sustainability of urology. Methods: A web-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted from March to June 2025, involving urologists, residents, and fellows globally. The 30-item questionnaire covered demographics, working conditions, work–life balance, and gender-related workplace issues. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics stratified by gender, age, role, and region. Results: We received replies from 390 doctors in urology. Work-related stress was reported by 87.4% (340). A total of 17.7% (69) felt their career progression to be fully compatible with their personal life, while 42.3% (165) perceived a significant imbalance. Female urologists experienced higher perceptions of inequality in career and work–life opportunities. Over 50% expressed willingness to reduce workload for family reasons, highlighting systemic barriers. Burnout was most prevalent among younger urologists (<50 years), with persistent gender disparities across regions. Conclusions: Work–life imbalance and burnout remain major concerns for urologists globally, especially among female and early-career physicians. Addressing these issues requires institutional policies promoting flexibility, gender equity, and targeted support. Further research is needed to develop effective interventions to sustain a resilient urological workforce. Full article
36 pages, 1916 KB  
Article
Circularity and Climate Mitigation in the EU27: An Elasticity-Based Scenario Analysis to 2050
by Olena Pavlova, Oksana Liashenko, Kostiantyn Pavlov, Maryna Nagara, Kamil Wiktor, Agata Kutyba and Olha Panivska
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11375; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411375 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
This study quantifies the decarbonisation potential of enhanced material circularity in the EU27 over the 2015–2022 period by integrating material flow data with elasticity-based emissions modelling. Using panel regression and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition, we evaluate the influence of recycling rate [...] Read more.
This study quantifies the decarbonisation potential of enhanced material circularity in the EU27 over the 2015–2022 period by integrating material flow data with elasticity-based emissions modelling. Using panel regression and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition, we evaluate the influence of recycling rate acceleration and material intensity decline on material-embedded emissions over the 2015–2022 period. The findings indicate that although recycling rates increased by 42% during this time, virgin materials remain responsible for over 97% of emissions. Decomposition results reveal that intensity improvements—measured as a cumulative LMDI intensity effect of −0.867 log-change units, equivalent to approximately a 58% reduction in emissions—offset most of the upward pressure from growing material demand and shifting composition. Scenario projections to 2050, based on empirically derived elasticities, show that accelerated circular economy pathways—assuming 4% annual growth in recycling rates and a 3% decline in material intensity—can reduce emissions by over 90%. In contrast, baseline policies fall short of net-zero targets. Sensitivity analysis confirms that policy ambition dominates parameter uncertainty in shaping future emissions trajectories. The study highlights the critical role of combined demand-side and supply-side measures in aligning material consumption with climate goals. The study highlights the crucial role of combined demand-side and supply-side measures in aligning material consumption with climate goals and advancing progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Full article
23 pages, 742 KB  
Article
EMTReK Model for Advance Care Planning in Long-Term Care: Qualitative Findings from mySupport Study
by Irene Hartigan, Catherine Buckley, Nicola Cornally, Kevin Brazil, Julie Doherty, Catherine Walshe, Andrew J. E. Harding, Nancy Preston, Laura Bavelaar, Jenny T. van der Steen, Paola Di Giulio, Silvia Gonella, Sharon Kaasalainen, Tamara Sussman, Bianca Tétrault, Martin Loučka, Karolína Vlčková, Rene A. Gonzales and on behalf of the mySupport Study Group
Geriatrics 2025, 10(6), 171; https://doi.org/10.3390/geriatrics10060171 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Conversations about end-of-life care or advance care planning are often difficult and emotionally challenging to initiate. Tailoring messages to the specific audiences can make these sensitive discussions more manageable and effective. The Evidence-based Model for the Transfer and Exchange of Research Knowledge [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: Conversations about end-of-life care or advance care planning are often difficult and emotionally challenging to initiate. Tailoring messages to the specific audiences can make these sensitive discussions more manageable and effective. The Evidence-based Model for the Transfer and Exchange of Research Knowledge (EMTReK), compromising six core components (message, stakeholders, processes, context, facilitation, and evaluation) offers a structured framework for research dissemination and knowledge transfer in palliative and long-term care settings. Knowledge translation bridges research and practice, with its effectiveness depending on stakeholder engagement, tailored communication, and systematic application of evidence in policy and practice. This study explores stakeholder perspectives on a dementia care intervention, using EMTReK as an analytical framework to examine how knowledge transfer and exchange (KTE) actions were implemented across long-term care settings. Methods: A qualitative analysis was conducted on primary data comprising case narratives from multinational research groups involved in the “Caregiver Decision Support” (mySupport) study (2019–2023). Teams from Canada, the Czech Republic, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom evaluated the mySupport intervention through interviews, with analysis guided by components of the EMTReK model. Results: Facilitated Family Care Conferences were found to be effective mechanisms for supporting knowledge transfer and intervention uptake in dementia care across nursing homes in Europe and Canada. Despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Family Care Conferences adapted through stakeholder engagement, interactive learning, and innovative communication methods. Using EMTReK as an analytical framework, the research team identified key elements that contributed to successful implementation, including the importance of flexibility to accommodate local contexts. Conclusions: The transnational application of the EMTReK model for advance care planning in long-term dementia care highlights the importance of tailored, culturally relevant knowledge translation strategies, which, despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, were successfully implemented through local adaptations and diverse dissemination methods, emphasising the need for further research on their impact on resident and family outcomes. Full article
23 pages, 3492 KB  
Article
Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning for Virtual Impedance Scheduling in Grid-Forming Power Converters Under Nonlinear and Transient Loads
by Jianli Ma, Kaixiang Peng, Xin Qin and Zheng Xu
Energies 2025, 18(24), 6621; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18246621 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
Grid-forming power converters play a foundational role in modern microgrids and inverter-dominated distribution systems by establishing voltage and frequency references during islanded or low-inertia operation. However, when subjected to nonlinear or impulsive impact-type loads, these converters often suffer from severe harmonic distortion and [...] Read more.
Grid-forming power converters play a foundational role in modern microgrids and inverter-dominated distribution systems by establishing voltage and frequency references during islanded or low-inertia operation. However, when subjected to nonlinear or impulsive impact-type loads, these converters often suffer from severe harmonic distortion and transient current overshoot, leading to waveform degradation and protection-triggered failures. While virtual impedance control has been widely adopted to mitigate these issues, conventional implementations rely on fixed or rule-based tuning heuristics that lack adaptivity and robustness under dynamic, uncertain conditions. This paper proposes a novel reinforcement learning-based framework for real-time virtual impedance scheduling in grid-forming converters, enabling simultaneous optimization of harmonic suppression and impact load resilience. The core of the methodology is a Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) agent that continuously adjusts the converter’s virtual impedance tensor—comprising dynamically tunable resistive, inductive, and capacitive elements—based on real-time observations of voltage harmonics, current derivatives, and historical impedance states. A physics-informed simulation environment is constructed, including nonlinear load models with dominant low-order harmonics and stochastic impact events emulating asynchronous motor startups. The system dynamics are modeled through a high-order nonlinear framework with embedded constraints on impedance smoothness, stability margins, and THD compliance. Extensive training and evaluation demonstrate that the learned impedance policy effectively reduces output voltage total harmonic distortion from over 8% to below 3.5%, while simultaneously limiting current overshoot during impact events by more than 60% compared to baseline methods. The learned controller adapts continuously without requiring explicit load classification or mode switching, and achieves strong generalization across unseen operating conditions. Pareto analysis further reveals the multi-objective trade-offs learned by the agent between waveform quality and transient mitigation. Full article
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21 pages, 2701 KB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Shipping Service Industry Agglomeration and Port–City Synergy: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China
by Tong Zhang, Linan Du, Husong Xing, Jimeng Tang and Cunrui Ma
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11366; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411366 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
The shipping service industry plays a pivotal role in enhancing port competitiveness and fostering urban economic growth, yet limited studies systematically integrate its spatial temporal dynamics with the processes driving port–city synergy. This study constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing port operations, urban [...] Read more.
The shipping service industry plays a pivotal role in enhancing port competitiveness and fostering urban economic growth, yet limited studies systematically integrate its spatial temporal dynamics with the processes driving port–city synergy. This study constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing port operations, urban economic development, and shipping service industry agglomeration. Using data from 13 port cities in Jiangsu Province (2015–2023), we apply the entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, relative development model, and panel Tobit regression to evaluate interaction intensity, coordination patterns, and influencing factors. Results reveal a clear spatial gradient in coupling coordination, higher in southern Jiangsu and lower in the north, driven by disparities in economic foundations, port capacities, and service industry structures. In most cities, port operations and urban economies lag behind shipping service industry agglomeration, reflecting the predominance of low- and mid-end services. Port construction level, cargo and container throughput, economic development, openness, fixed asset investment, and population density significantly promote coordination, whereas R&D capacity shows no significant effect. The findings advance understanding of port–city service interlinkages and provide targeted policy recommendations for differentiated regional development, infrastructure enhancement, and upgrading toward high-end shipping services, with implications for maritime regions worldwide. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Studies in Sustainable Urban Planning and Urban Development)
21 pages, 282 KB  
Article
Bacterial Contaminants in Ambulances from a Tertiary Care Hospital as Potential Threats to Patients and Medical Staff in Al-Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia—Effect of Decontamination
by Ahmed E. Taha, Ahmad R. Alharbi, Omar N. Alharbi, Alaaeldin M. Komila, Abdullah Almushawwah, Solaiman Aldeghaim, Ahmed N. Algefary, Majed Allahim, Khalid Alzaben and Faisal M. Alharbi
Pathogens 2025, 14(12), 1301; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens14121301 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
Bacterial contaminants in ambulances could have a major impact on morbidities, mortalities, and healthcare resources, especially if these bacteria are antimicrobial-resistant. As far as we know, this is the first study in Al-Qassim region to evaluate the prevalence of bacterial contaminants in swab [...] Read more.
Bacterial contaminants in ambulances could have a major impact on morbidities, mortalities, and healthcare resources, especially if these bacteria are antimicrobial-resistant. As far as we know, this is the first study in Al-Qassim region to evaluate the prevalence of bacterial contaminants in swab samples obtained from ambulances from Alqwarah General Hospital, Al-Qassim region, Saudi Arabia as an indicator for evaluation of the implemented infection control measures, and screen the antibiotics profiles of the isolates against the most regularly used antimicrobials. In total, 204 samples were collected from the ambulances following patient transport. To evaluate the effect of vehicle decontamination, 204 swabs were collected from the same sites of the ambulances immediately after cleaning and disinfection. The isolates were identified using standard bacteriological and biochemical methods, as recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI). The antibiotic susceptibility patterns were assessed using the Kirby–Bauer disc diffusion method. The prevalence of bacterial contamination in the samples collected following patient transport was 46.08%. In total, 83.33%, 75.00%, and 66.66% of the samples collected from DC shock apparatuses, ceilings, and emergency personnel seats, respectively, were contaminated. Furthermore, ceilings, DC shock apparatuses, emergency personnel seats, cervical collars, and monitors were found to harbor 10.8%, 9.8%, 7.8%, 6.8%, and 6.8% of the 102 bacterial isolates, respectively. Gram-positive organisms represented 96.1% of all bacterial isolates. Bacillus spp. was the most common isolate, accounting for 60.8% of all bacterial isolates. Although Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Proteus spp. isolates were sensitive to all the tested antimicrobials, many Gram-positive bacterial isolates were resistant to some antibiotics in variable frequencies. After 48 h of aerobic incubation (with or without 5–10% CO2) on nutrient, blood, chocolate, and MacConkey agar plates at 37 °C, no bacterial growth was detected in the samples collected immediately following cleaning and disinfection. This is the second Saudi study to evaluate the prevalence of bacterial contaminants in Saudi Arabian ambulances, and it could help health policy makers in improving the implemented infection prevention and control measures in Saudi Arabian ambulances. The samples taken after patient transport revealed bacterial contaminants with varying rates of antimicrobial resistance. Policies ensuring the optimal cleaning and disinfection of ambulances can minimize the potential of bacterial infection for high-risk patients, their relatives, and healthcare providers. Full article
16 pages, 1960 KB  
Article
Gaps in Community-Based Screening for Non-Communicable Diseases in Saudi Arabia
by Ghadeer Al Ghareeb, Zaenab M. Alkhair, Zainab Alradwan, Hussain Alqaissoom, Horiah Ali Soumel, Khadijah R. Alsaffar, Fatema Muhaimeed, Burair Alsaihati, Mohammad N. Alkhrayef and Ibrahim Alradwan
Diseases 2025, 13(12), 407; https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases13120407 - 18 Dec 2025
Abstract
Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, obesity, and cancer are the leading cause of mortality globally and in Saudi Arabia, accounting for more than 70% of all deaths. Despite national initiatives offering free preventive services, screening uptake remains low. This [...] Read more.
Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, obesity, and cancer are the leading cause of mortality globally and in Saudi Arabia, accounting for more than 70% of all deaths. Despite national initiatives offering free preventive services, screening uptake remains low. This study aimed to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals participating in community-based NCD screening campaigns in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and to evaluate screening uptake, compliance, and diagnostic outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was conducted among 3106 adults screened at volunteer-driven community campaigns held between January 2023 and December 2024. Screening included anthropometric measurements, blood pressure assessment, and glucose testing, followed by eligibility evaluation for osteoporosis and cancer screening. Uptake and compliance were verified using electronic health records. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were applied. Results: Participants were 64% male and 36% female, with a mean age of 41.4 ± SD years. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were identified in 32%, 31%, and 12% of participants overall. Gender-stratified prevalence showed higher obesity among females at 36% (95% CI 32.3 to 38.1) and higher hypertension and diabetes among males at 36% (95% CI 34.0 to 38.2) and 14% (95% CI 12.1 to 15.2), respectively. Uptake among eligible individuals was 51% for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), 47% for fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), 43% for Pap smear, and 39% for mammography. Diagnostic findings demonstrated substantial undetected disease burden, including osteoporosis in 41% (95% CI 26.0 to 56.8) of DEXA scans, a FIT positivity rate of 5% (95% CI 1.5 to 10.3), abnormal Pap cytology in 3% (95% CI 1.1 to 7.5), and BI-RADS 0 mammograms in 19% (95% CI 11.9 to 29.5), reflecting incomplete assessments requiring further evaluation. Conclusions: Community-based campaigns can effectively resolve limited engagement in health promotional activities and detect substantial burdens of undiagnosed NCDs. However, improvements in referral tracking, follow-up systems, and culturally tailored health education are essential to enhance screening compliance and early detection outcomes. These results can be utilized to inform public policies by extending screening services to additional areas, increasing investment in preventive health campaigns, and enhancing the capacity of the health system. Full article
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17 pages, 1806 KB  
Article
Current Status of the Climate Change Impact Assessment System in Korea and Its Linkage with Urban Greenhouse Gas Observation for Sustainability: A Systematic Review and Case
by Sungwoon Jung and Jaewon Lee
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11339; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411339 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
In 2022, Korea became the first country to introduce a climate change impact assessment (CCIA) system that requires prior analysis and evaluation of climate impacts for major development projects, delivering a relevant analysis and management framework for such purposes. This study reviews Korea’s [...] Read more.
In 2022, Korea became the first country to introduce a climate change impact assessment (CCIA) system that requires prior analysis and evaluation of climate impacts for major development projects, delivering a relevant analysis and management framework for such purposes. This study reviews Korea’s CCIA system from a policy perspective, organizing its structural components, assessment procedures, and reporting methods according to the domains of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and climate crisis adaptation. The system’s characteristics and assessment procedures of this system are also analyzed via a case study review of urban development projects. In the GHG mitigation category, emissions and absorptions should be investigated at each project stage and quantitative reduction amounts and targets established based on scientific and statistical evidence. Regarding climate crisis adaptation, regional climate risks should be analyzed and adaptation strategies for priority management areas developed based on impact prediction results. CO2 concentrations recorded in Seoul’s central and background areas confirmed spatial differences in city-level GHG concentrations, proposing the CCIA’s potential practical use for enhancing future monitoring frameworks. To enhance the effectiveness of the CCIA and its consequences for future sustainability, the opinions of various stakeholders and linking the system with existing environmental impact (EIA) assessment frameworks are paramount. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air, Climate Change and Sustainability)
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21 pages, 2410 KB  
Article
Unveiling Drivers of Green Production in Forest-Grown Ginseng Farms in China: An Ordered Probit-LGBM Fusion Approach
by Xin-Bo Zhang, Yi-Jun Lou, Yu-Ning Jia, Jia-Fang Han, Yang Zhang and Cheng-Liang Wu
Forests 2025, 16(12), 1868; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121868 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
This study investigates the drivers of green production practices among forest-cultivated ginseng growers in Jilin Province, China, by integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework. Based on survey data from 369 households in the major production regions of [...] Read more.
This study investigates the drivers of green production practices among forest-cultivated ginseng growers in Jilin Province, China, by integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework. Based on survey data from 369 households in the major production regions of Tonghua, Baishan, and Yanbian areas, an Ordered Probit model and a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) algorithm are employed for cross-validation. The results indicate that growers’ cognitive traits (awareness of green production standards and ecological/quality safety) and willingness (acceptance of price premiums for green products) are the most stable and critical drivers. Policy incentives (e.g., certification subsidies and outreach) not only directly promote green practices but also exhibit synergistic effects through interactions with resource endowments and psychological cognition. Regional heterogeneity is evident: Tonghua shows policy–market co-drive, Baishan is dominated by ecological constraints and safeguard policies, while Yanbian relies more on education and individual resources. Accordingly, this study proposes a differentiated policy system based on diagnosis–intervention–evaluation to support the high-quality development of forest-cultivated ginseng industry and ecological-economic synergies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Economics, Policy, and Social Science)
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24 pages, 7002 KB  
Article
Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Transition in a Post-Mining City Based on the GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of Xuzhou, China
by Yongjun Yang, Xinxin Chen, Yiyan Zhang, Yuqing Cao and Dian Jin
Land 2025, 14(12), 2442; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14122442 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
Many cities worldwide face decline due to mineral-resource exhaustion, with mining-induced subsidence and land degradation posing urgent land use challenges. At the same time, carbon neutrality has become a global agenda, promoting ecological restoration, emissions reduction, and green transformation in resource-exhausted cities. However, [...] Read more.
Many cities worldwide face decline due to mineral-resource exhaustion, with mining-induced subsidence and land degradation posing urgent land use challenges. At the same time, carbon neutrality has become a global agenda, promoting ecological restoration, emissions reduction, and green transformation in resource-exhausted cities. However, empirical evidence on how carbon neutrality strategies drive land use transition remains scarce. Taking Xuzhou, China, as a case study, we integrate the GeoSOS–FLUS land use simulation model with a Markov chain model to project land use patterns in 2030 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), land recovery (LR), and carbon neutrality (CN). Using emission factors and a land use carbon inventory, we quantify spatial distributions and temporal shifts in carbon emission and sequestration. Results show that LR’s rigid recovery policies restrict broader transitions, while the CN scenario effectively reshapes land use by enhancing the competitiveness of low-carbon types such as forests and new-energy land. Under CN, built-up land expansion is curbed, forests and new-energy land are maximized, and emissions fall by 4.95% from 2020. Carbon neutrality offers opportunities for industrial renewal and ecological restoration in resource-exhausted cities, steering transformations toward approaches that balance ecological function and carbon benefits. Long-term monitoring is required to evaluate policy sustainability and effectiveness. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Use, Impact Assessment and Sustainability)
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16 pages, 1258 KB  
Article
Stagnation in U.S. Recycling Rates: Evaluating the Impact of Bottle Bills and Public Investments into Recycling Education
by Chanho B. Oh and Younsung Kim
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11335; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411335 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
The U.S. municipal solid waste recycling rate has remained near 32% for two decades, placing the country 30th globally. In response, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set a national goal of achieving a 50% recycling rate by 2030, yet concrete strategies [...] Read more.
The U.S. municipal solid waste recycling rate has remained near 32% for two decades, placing the country 30th globally. In response, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set a national goal of achieving a 50% recycling rate by 2030, yet concrete strategies for reaching this target remain limited. Persistent challenges—such as low public participation and inadequate dissemination of effective practices—highlight the potential importance of recycling education. This study has two aims. First, we assess federal investment in recycling education through the EPA’s Environmental Education Grants Program (1992–2023) using a large language model (LLM)-assisted text-mining approach to identify recycling-focused projects. Second, we examine the factors that shape state-level recycling rates, including policy, demographic, infrastructure, and education variables. Our results show that states with bottle bills—deposit–refund laws for beverage containers—and states with higher levels of educational attainment exhibit significantly higher recycling rates. By contrast, federal investments in recycling education, as measured through the grants program, were not statistically associated with state-level recycling performance. This study introduces a novel analytic approach for evaluating how policy and educational factors contribute to state-level recycling outcomes and to national recycling performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Waste and Recycling)
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36 pages, 4760 KB  
Article
A Bayesian Markov Switching Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters for Dynamic Economic Forecasting
by Syarifah Inayati, Nur Iriawan, Irhamah and Uha Isnaini
Forecasting 2025, 7(4), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7040079 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
This research tackles the challenge of forecasting nonlinear time series data with stochastic structural variations by proposing the Markov switching autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (MSAR-TVP). Although effective in modeling dynamic regime transitions, the Classical MSAR-TVP faces challenges with complex datasets. To address [...] Read more.
This research tackles the challenge of forecasting nonlinear time series data with stochastic structural variations by proposing the Markov switching autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (MSAR-TVP). Although effective in modeling dynamic regime transitions, the Classical MSAR-TVP faces challenges with complex datasets. To address these issues, a Bayesian MSAR-TVP framework was developed, incorporating flexible parameters that adapt dynamically across regimes. The model was tested on two periods of U.S. real GNP data: a historically stable segment (1952–1986) and a more complex, modern segment that includes more economic volatility (1947–2024). The Bayesian MSAR-TVP demonstrated superior performance in handling complex datasets, particularly in out-of-sample forecasting, outperforming the Bayesian AR-TVP, Classical MSAR-TVP, and Classical MSAR models, as evaluated by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE). For in-sample data, the Classical MSAR-TVP retained its stability advantage. These findings highlight the Bayesian MSAR-TVP’s ability to address parameter uncertainty and adapt to data fluctuations, making it highly effective for forecasting dynamic economic cycles. Additionally, the two-year forecast underscores its practical utility in predicting economic cycles, suggesting continued expansion. This reinforces the model’s significance for economic forecasting and strategic policy formulation. Full article
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24 pages, 555 KB  
Article
Green Finance, Local Government Competition, and Industrial Green Transformation: Evidence from China
by Hanzun Li, Yige Du and Shaohua Kong
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11304; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411304 - 17 Dec 2025
Abstract
Amid intensifying challenges of global climate change, China—as the world’s largest carbon emitter and a major manufacturing hub—occupies a pivotal position in the global industrial green transformation. Drawing on environmental federalism theory and China’s decentralized governance model, this study develops a framework of [...] Read more.
Amid intensifying challenges of global climate change, China—as the world’s largest carbon emitter and a major manufacturing hub—occupies a pivotal position in the global industrial green transformation. Drawing on environmental federalism theory and China’s decentralized governance model, this study develops a framework of “green finance–local government competition–industrial green transformation.” Using panel data from 283 cities in China, we employ spatial econometrics and mediation effect models to test the dual mechanisms by which green finance promotes industrial green transformation. The findings indicate that (1) green finance promotes industrial green transformation; (2) green finance advances industrial green transformation by dismantling China’s traditional local government competition–based development model and removing the institutional suppression arising from “race-to-the-bottom competition”; (3) the effect of green finance exhibits long-run characteristics and a “benchmark–imitation” pattern; (4) baseline environmental conditions strengthen the influence of green finance on industrial green transformation; (5) incorporating ecological civilization development into officials’ performance evaluations can effectively reshape policy incentives and amplify the positive role of green finance. Thus, we propose differentiated green finance policies, the construction of a governance mechanism that integrates fiscal–financial–ecological compensation, and the optimization of ecological civilization assessment indicators to curb campaign-style governance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability)
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17 pages, 329 KB  
Article
Sustainability and Competitiveness of Mexican Rose Production for Export: A Policy Analysis Matrix Approach Assessing Economic and Social Dimensions
by Ana Luisa Velázquez-Torres, Francisco Ernesto Martínez-Castañeda, Nicolás Callejas-Juárez, Nathaniel Alec Rogers-Montoya, Francisco Herrera-Tapia, Elein Hernandez and Humberto Thomé-Ortiz
Sustainability 2025, 17(24), 11289; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411289 - 16 Dec 2025
Abstract
The agricultural economic policy in Mexico has inadequately addressed the integrated sustainability needs of the rural sector. This study adopts a sustainability perspective to examine economic policy distortions and market failures in the export-oriented rose cultivation sector, and evaluates their effects on the [...] Read more.
The agricultural economic policy in Mexico has inadequately addressed the integrated sustainability needs of the rural sector. This study adopts a sustainability perspective to examine economic policy distortions and market failures in the export-oriented rose cultivation sector, and evaluates their effects on the economic and social sustainability of producers in Tenancingo and Villa Guerrero, Mexico. A Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) and CONEVAL poverty line metrics were used to evaluate private and social profitability as indicators of financial viability and resource use efficiency. Findings indicate that, despite being supported by distortionary policies, the rose export sector remains competitive and financially viable, constituting a key pillar of economic sustainability. Moreover, the social profitability of rose production exceeded its private profitability, suggesting a net positive socioeconomic benefit and a sustainable allocation of resources from a societal perspective. Furthermore, per capita income in the rose production unit (RPU) exceeded the poverty line established by CONEVAL, directly supporting social sustainability and strengthening livelihood resilience. The study concludes that current resource allocation mechanisms are inefficient for sustainability over the long term. It emphasizes the need for policy shifts toward greater innovation, more effective technology transfer, improved market access, and stronger human capital to strengthen the sustainability of the sector as a whole. Rose cultivation exhibited a significant positive multiplier effect on the regional economy, reinforcing its contribution to sustainable rural development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability)
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