Search Results (42)

Policy interventions are widely used to promote regional development and reshape economic structure, yet their broader transport, spatial, and environmental impacts have received limited attention. This study develops an integrated urban computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that combines CGE theory with a computable urban economics (CUE) framework, overcoming the limitations of conventional CGE models in representing intra-urban transportation dynamics and capturing spatial heterogeneity within urban areas. By incorporating transport sectors and endogenous transport mode substitution, the model captures the interaction between industrial activities and transport systems, enabling a more comprehensive assessment of the economic, equity, and transport-related environmental impacts induced by policy interventions. A case study of the Kofu metropolitan area in Japan shows that transport improvement policy generates broad welfare gains and industrial expansion but may induce modal shifts that reinforce road dependence and increase environmental burdens. In contrast, tax reduction and subsidy policies also stimulate significant industrial growth while reducing aggregate transport demand through spatial concentration and industrial structural adjustment, but tend to exacerbate interregional inequality. The findings highlight trade-offs among efficiency, equity, and environmental sustainability, while demonstrating the analytical value of incorporating a CUE framework and transport–industry interaction mechanisms into a CGE model for policy-relevant evaluation. Full article

Geopolitical shocks affect small open economies through multiple, correlated channels, yet applied CGE analyses typically impose the timing and persistence of those shocks by assumption. This paper develops a two-stage SVAR–CGE framework that links econometrically identified shock dynamics to general-equilibrium welfare evaluation for Thailand. First, a seven-variable narrative SVAR estimated on monthly data for 2000–2025, identified using the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, is used to recover the persistence of five transmission channels: oil prices, shipping costs, exchange rates, tourism demand, and private investment. Second, these estimated persistence parameters discipline the shock paths in a 22-sector recursive comparative-static CGE model calibrated to Thailand’s 2025 Social Accounting Matrix and simulated over three annual periods using a present-value integral transformation. Under the baseline shock bundle, GDP declines by 3.18% and CPI increases by 5.49%, with welfare losses exhibiting a bimodal distributional pattern—largest for Q1 through consumption-share exposure and for Q4 through tradeable-sector intensity—departing from the monotonically regressive pattern in single-channel analyses. Policy simulations show that targeted transfers calibrated to income rank dominate a universal fuel subsidy on fiscal efficiency, welfare effectiveness (welfare multiplier 1.377 vs. 0.334), and progressivity (1.00 vs. 0.94), at half the fiscal cost (1.48% vs. 2.97% of baseline GDP). An additional bimodal-targeting scenario (S4) at identical fiscal cost underperforms income-rank targeting on all metrics, confirming the latter as the robust second-best instrument under LES preferences with strong MPC heterogeneity. These rankings are supported by the central calibration of a 9-point sensitivity grid, with partial corroboration at off-baseline configurations. The paper contributes by showing that empirically disciplining inter-annual shock dynamics in CGE analysis can materially alter policy conclusions under correlated multi-channel external shocks, shifting the preferred response from sector-specific price subsidies toward demand-side household transfers. Full article

The Trump administration signalled a shift toward protectionism in U.S. trade policy, imposing tariffs on imports from both strategic partners and competitors, which generated renewed uncertainty in international trade relations and the future of existing frameworks such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). Earlier analysis has shown that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the United States can be trade-creating and lead to improved macroeconomic outcomes in SACU countries. However, these positive effects decline over time, with varying impacts across different industries, influenced by initial tariff levels and export orientation relative to the US. This paper examines whether there are economic and strategic incentives for SACU to negotiate a more beneficial agreement than a simple across-the-board elimination of ad valorem import tariffs. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the paper examines the outcomes if cereals, poultry, dairy products, red meat, and sugar products—often classified as sensitive due to their labour intensity, food security implications, and exposure to import competition—were to retain some level of protection under a SACU–US Free Trade Agreement. The results suggest that while the FTA boosts key macroeconomic indicators in the short run, gains taper off over time. Crucially, real wages and employment remain stagnant, and terms of trade deteriorate, raising questions about the inclusivity and sustainability of such a deal. Shielding vulnerable sectors initially enhances SACU’s exports and supports some industry growth, particularly in agriculture. However, without broader reforms and export diversification, long-term competitiveness remains weak. A nuanced FTA design, combined with structural support policies, is essential to unlock lasting and inclusive trade benefits. Full article

This study evaluates growth and income distribution targets needed to alleviate poverty and eradicate hunger, and assesses strategies to achieve these goals in rural areas in South Africa. Most development policy studies concentrate on growth, inequality, and poverty reduction, while explicit SDG-related applications receive less attention, especially in Africa. To fill this gap, we apply a framework that combines a recursive dynamic CGE model with a microeconomic simulation model in a top-down and bottom-up fashion. We explore two scenarios: a business-as-usual simulation and an agricultural growth simulation that tests investment, export enhancement, productivity improvements, and social assistance extension. The agriculture policy includes targeted social assistance. Halving poverty and eradicating extreme hunger requires 2.7% annual economic growth and 3.6% agricultural growth from 2018 to 2030. In the business-as-usual scenario, poverty is expected to rise from 55.2% in 2015 to 56.1% by 2030, with 24% still below the food poverty line. The agricultural growth scenario can advance hunger and poverty goals if individual consumption increases by 2.6% annually. Achieving SDG targets for hunger and poverty demands interventions beyond agricultural policy. South Africa can achieve its hunger and poverty SDG goals through a combination of agricultural investments, social assistance, and labour policies. Full article

This study explores how carbon pricing and electricity market liberalization jointly contribute to China’s sustainable energy transition. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (CEEEA2.0), we simulate three policy scenarios—business as usual, emissions trading scheme (ETS) with regulated electricity prices, and ETS with market-based pricing—under a unified emissions cap. The results demonstrate that electricity market liberalization enhances carbon pricing efficiency by eliminating price distortions, leading to a 0.06% increase in GDP and a 12% reduction in emission abatement costs. However, liberalization also raises electricity and consumer prices, disproportionately affecting rural and low-income households. These findings underscore the need to balance economic efficiency and social equity in sustainability-oriented energy reforms. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of designing inclusive and just transition policies to ensure that carbon mitigation efforts support long-term environmental, economic, and social sustainability goals. Full article

Accurately evaluating the effectiveness of the energy consumption “dual control” policy can effectively solve serious the current environmental pollution and promote ecological civilization. However, researchers have rarely considered the impacts on the regional “resource curse” of the energy consumption “dual control” policy. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was built to evaluate the impacts on the regional “resource curse” of the energy intensity control and total energy control policy. The results showed the following. (1) The energy consumption “dual control” policy changes the supply-and-demand relationship of factors and reduces the crowding-out effect of humans and capital. (2) The energy consumption “dual control” policy has restrained GDP growth, and the total output and total investment have declined. However, the impact in regions without the “resource curse” is remarkable. (3) The energy consumption “dual control” policy has a significant inhibitory effect on major pollutants and carbon emissions. (4) The energy consumption “dual control” policy has played a positive role in breaking the regional “resource curse”. The areas with a high and low “resource curse” have become smaller, and the areas without the “resource curse” have increased significantly. The following suggestions are made: (1) increase the flexibility of the “dual control” policy of energy consumption, (2) establish an energy consumption budget management system, and (3) accelerate the establishment of a carbon footprint management system. Full article

An ambitious per capita GDP target has been envisioned by the Chinese government since 2020 to project its sustainable economic growth rate by 2035. Can China fully achieve its goal? This is a question worth investigating. By inserting relevant TABLO modules of the final goods trade, the intermediate goods trade, and factor-strengthening technology spillovers, along with technology absorption thresholds effects of the global value chain, this study builds a global recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model on the basis of GTAP-RD. This approach enables us to consider total factor productivity (TFP) development through the “dual circulation” system, which was pointed out by the Chinese government as the only way for further growth. We simulate China’s technological progress under eight scenarios and use the latest GTAP Version 11 production and trade data (released in April 2023) for 141 countries and regions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) If China maintains its trade opening policy, the 2035 vision goal can be achieved, with external circulation being more important than internal circulation. (2) The economic growth impacts of external and internal circulation function relatively independently. FDI offers a somewhat stronger synergistic effect on intermediate goods trade compared to final goods trade and consumption. (3) We find that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is the most important strategic partner for China. (4) FDI is not an effective way to lift the productive services sector’s TFP, and it is more realistic for China to open up the productive services market more widely. (5) China–US decoupling has an enormous global impact, and the United States is always the country that loses the most, with Europe being the group of countries that benefits when there is a large increase in TFP in the US. This study is entirely original in terms of its model structure, simulations, scenarios, and shocks. It aims to fill the gap of extending the application of the CGE model to specific issues, thereby making contributions and supplements to the three theories discussed in the article too. The limitation of this paper lies in the CGE linear description feature, which is concise and elegant and has the characteristics of extrapolation and long-term absorption of disturbances. However, it tends to overlook the randomness, non-convergence, and significant structural disturbances that may occur in future reality. Full article

With the increasing “resource curse” phenomena relating to energy resources in China, research concerning energy substitution policies has become more meaningful. In this paper, a dynamic CGE model was built to evaluate the impacts of energy substitution policies on regional growth and the “resource curse”. The results show the following: (1) Compared to other regions, an energy substitution policy exerts a more considerable influence on economic growth in regions with high “resource curse”. (2) The changes in carbon emissions in regions with no or low “resource curse” are modest. The primary factor contributing to the rapid decline might be energy structure adjustments. As the intensity of substitution varies, the regional disparities in marginal emission reduction costs are expected to increase. (3) Energy substitution policies reduce the severity of high “resource curse” regions. As the intensity of energy substitution increases, the extent of “resource curse” regions decreases accordingly. Some suggestions are given as follows: (1) Further promote energy substitution and speed up the transformation of energy production and consumption modes in China. (2) Accelerate the energy transformation in “resource curse” regions to promote regional sustainable development. (3) Improve energy substitution policies in transportation, industry and other fields. Full article

Public debt plays a major role in financing projects that support economic growth and sustainable development. As governments may choose between domestic and external borrowing, a comprehensive assessment of their effects would support this choice. Our study provides an integrative view of economic and social outcomes and compares, through externalities, the impacts of external and domestic public debt as methods of financing development, with a focus on the Cameroonian economy. Utilizing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation analysis, we find that domestic debt has more advantages for Cameroon compared to external debt, as it increases the large-scale economic impact by improving household welfare, boosting GDP growth, and progressively reducing poverty and inequality. It is therefore recommended that the Cameroonian government focus on increasing the use of domestic debt as a method of financing development by implementing policies that support domestic saving and promote the development of domestic debt markets. Full article

The carbon emissions of the power industry account for over 50% of China’s total carbon emissions, so achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the power sector is crucial. This study aims to simulate the impacts of three energy policies—carbon constraints, the development of a high proportion of renewable energy, and carbon trading—on China’s energy transition, economic development, and the power sector’s energy mix. Through the construction of a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and its integration with the SWITCH-China electricity model, the impact of diverse energy policies on China’s energy transition, economic progress, and the power mix within the electricity industry has been simulated. The integration of the SWITCH-China model can address the limitations of the CGE model in providing a detailed understanding of the specific intricacies of the electricity sector. The results indicate that increasing the stringency of carbon restrictions compels a reduction in fossil energy use, controlling the output of coal-fired power units, and thereby reducing carbon emissions. The development of a high proportion of renewable energy enhances the cleanliness of the power sector’s generation structure, further promoting the national energy transition. Implementing a carbon trading policy, where the entire industry shares the burden of carbon reduction costs, can effectively mitigate the economic losses of the power sector. Finally, the policies to further enhance the implementation of carbon trading policies, strengthen effective governmental regulation, and escalate the deployment of renewable energy sources are recommended. Full article

Lipid metabolism dysregulation can lead to dyslipidemia and obesity, which are major causes of cardiovascular disease and associated mortality worldwide. The purpose of the study was to obtain and characterize six plant extracts (ACE—Allii cepae extractum; RSE—Rosmarini extractum; CHE—Cichorii extractum; CE—Cynarae extractum; AGE—Apii graveolentis extractum; CGE—Crataegi extractum) as promising adjuvant therapies for the prevention and treatment of dyslipidemia and its related metabolic diseases. Phytochemical screening revealed that RSE was the richest extract in total polyphenols (39.62 ± 13.16 g tannic acid/100 g dry extract) and phenolcarboxylic acids (22.05 ± 1.31 g chlorogenic acid/100 g dry extract). Moreover, the spectrophotometric chemical profile highlighted a significant concentration of flavones for CGE (5.32 ± 0.26 g rutoside/100 g dry extract), in contrast to the other extracts. UHPLC-MS quantification detected considerable amounts of phenolic constituents, especially chlorogenic acid in CGE (187.435 ± 1.96 mg/g extract) and rosmarinic acid in RSE (317.100 ± 2.70 mg/g extract). Rosemary and hawthorn extracts showed significantly stronger free radical scavenging activity compared to the other plant extracts (p < 0.05). Pearson correlation analysis and the heatmap correlation matrix indicated significant correlations between phytochemical contents and in vitro antioxidant activities. Computational studies were performed to investigate the potential anti-obesity mechanism of the studied extracts using target prediction, homology modeling, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics approaches. Our study revealed that rosmarinic acid (RA) and chlorogenic acid (CGA) can form stable complexes with the active site of carbonic anhydrase 5A by either interacting with the zinc-bound catalytic water molecule or by directly binding Zn²⁺. Further studies are warranted to experimentally validate the predicted CA5A inhibitory activities of RA and CGA and to investigate the hypolipidemic and antioxidant activities of the proposed plant extracts in animal models of dyslipidemia and obesity. Full article

Demand for high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky has been increasing for decades. Concurrently, Kentucky is witnessing ecological shifts in the historically white oak-dominated forests, mirroring the structural changes in oak forests in the eastern US. This demand–supply dissonance presents a growing concern among stakeholders on the sustainability of white oak and its associated economic implications. In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the potential economic impacts of the projected white oak timber supply following an overall increased supply of white oak sawlogs but reduced supply of high-quality white oak sawlogs in Kentucky. Results generated from a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model indicate a cumulative present-value GDP reduction of USD 3.66 billion, a USD 0.71 billion decline in consumer welfare, and other sectoral contractions over 40 years (2018–2058). These results can be used to advocate for more proactive forest management practices to stabilize a sustained supply of high-quality white oak timber in Kentucky and beyond. Full article

This study formulates a mathematical dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model within a rational expectations framework, adhering to neo-classical principles. It emphasizes the significant role of agents’ expectations in determining the broader economic trajectory over time. The model combines microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives by merging the concept of intertemporal choice with savings behavior. Its mathematical foundations are derived and calibrated using data from a social accounting matrix to enhance its simulation capabilities. The paper presents a practical simulation investigating the economic implications of a strategic investment impact within an specific European region, Madrid as the case of study. Such demand shock affects sectors such as electronics, food, pharmaceuticals, and education. The study models the long-term effects of heightened investment and persistent demand-side shocks. The research demonstrates the CGE model’s ability to forecast economic shifts toward a new equilibrium after an investment shock, proving its utility for assessing the impacts of extensive environmental policies within a European context. The work’s originality lies in its detailed mathematical formulation, contributing to theoretical discourse and practical application in business analytics. Full article

This study examines the effects of carbon emission trading on renewable energy consumption in China. The research applies the CEEEA2.0 model to simulate the economic, energy, and environmental impacts of carbon trading from 2018 to 2030. The CEEEA2.0 model is a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that incorporates multiple households, sectors, and an energy and environment module. Four scenarios are considered: the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)-benchmark scenario, and the ETS-strengthened and ETS-enhanced scenarios. The findings reveal that carbon emission trading positively influences electricity consumption, resulting in a higher preference for renewable energy due to reduced price disparities between renewable sources and fossil fuels. Consequently, electricity generation from renewable sources increases in all scenarios compared to the BaU scenario. However, the share of renewable energy is not substantially affected by carbon emission trading due to the complex interplay of factors, including substitution and income effects. The study further highlights that carbon trading significantly reduces coal usage and partially increases the overall proportion of renewable energy. These results underscore the significance of establishing ambitious carbon reduction targets and continual efforts to shift towards clean energy sources. Full article

Proper fixation techniques are crucial in orthopedic surgery for the treatment of various medical conditions. Fractures of the distal humerus can occur due to either high-energy trauma with skin rupture or low-energy trauma in osteoporotic bone. The recommended surgical approach for treating these extra-articular distal humerus fractures involves performing an open reduction and internal fixation procedure using plate implants. This surgical intervention plays a crucial role in enhancing patient recovery and minimizing soft tissue complications. Dynamic Compression Plates (DCPs) and Locking Compression Plates (LCPs) are commonly used for bone fixation, with LCP extra-articular distal humerus plates being the preferred choice for extra-articular fractures. These fixation systems have anatomically shaped designs that provide angular stability to the bone. However, depending on the shape and position of the bone fracture, additional plate bending may be required during surgery. This can pose challenges such as increased surgery time and the risk of incorrect plate shaping. To enhance the accuracy of plate placement, the study introduces the Method of Anatomical Features (MAF) in conjunction with the Characteristic Product Features methodology (CPF). The utilization of the MAF enables the development of a parametric model for the contact surface between the plate and the humerus. This model is created using specialized Referential Geometrical Entities (RGEs), Constitutive Geometrical Entities (CGEs), and Regions of Interest (ROI) that are specific to the human humerus bone. By utilizing this anatomically tailored contact surface model, the standard plate model can be customized (bent) to precisely conform to the distinct shape of the patient’s humerus bone during the pre-operative planning phase. Alternatively, the newly designed model can be fabricated using a specific manufacturing technology. This approach aims to improve geometrical accuracy of plate fixation, thus optimizing surgical outcomes and patient recovery. Full article