Search Results (154)

This study investigates the effects of key atmospheric features on mineral dust emissions and transport in the Sahara–Sahel region, focusing on the Bodélé Depression, during June 2006 and 2011. We use a combination of high-resolution atmospheric simulations (AROME model), satellite observations (MODIS), and reanalysis data (ERA5, ECMWF) to examine the roles of the low-level jet (LLJ), Saharan heat low (SHL), Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD), and African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in modulating dust activity. Our results reveal significant interannual variability in aerosol optical depth (AOD) between the two periods, with a marked decrease in June 2011 compared to June 2006. The LLJ emerges as a dominant factor in dust uplift over Bodélé, with its intensity strongly influenced by local topography, particularly the Tibesti Massif. The position and intensity of the SHL also play crucial roles, affecting the configuration of monsoon flow and Harmattan winds. Analysis of wind patterns shows a strong negative correlation between AOD and meridional wind in the Bodélé region, while zonal wind analysis emphasizes the importance of the AEJ and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in dust transport. Surprisingly, we observe no significant correlation between ITD position and AOD measurements, highlighting the complexity of dust emission processes. This study is the first to combine climatological context and case studies to demonstrate the effects of African monsoon variability on dust uplift at intra-seasonal timescales, associated with the modulation of ITD latitude position, SHL, LLJ, and AEJ. Our findings contribute to understanding the complex relationships between large-scale atmospheric features and dust dynamics in this key source region, with implications for improving dust forecasting and climate modeling efforts. Full article

Air quality forecasts play a crucial role in informing the public about atmospheric pollutant levels that pose risks to human health and the environment. The accuracy of these forecasts strongly depends on the quality and resolution of the input data used in the modelling process. At HungaroMet, the Hungarian Meteorological Service, the CHIMERE chemical transport model is used to provide two-day air quality forecasts for the territory of Hungary. This study compares two configurations of the CHIMERE model: the current operational setup, which uses climatological averages from the LMDz-INCA database for boundary conditions, and a test configuration that incorporates real-time boundary conditions from the CAMS global forecast. The primary objective of this work was to assess how the use of real-time versus climatological boundary conditions affects modelled concentrations of key pollutants, including NO₂, O₃, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5. The model results were evaluated against observational data from the Hungarian Air Quality Monitoring Network using a range of statistical metrics. The results indicate that the use of real-time boundary conditions, particularly for aerosol-type pollutants, improves the accuracy of PM₁₀ forecasts. This improvement is most significant under meteorological conditions that favour the long-range transport of particulate matter, such as during Saharan dust or wildfire episodes. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating dynamic, up-to-date boundary data, especially for particulate matter forecasting—given the increasing frequency of transboundary dust events. Full article

Environmental comfort and air pollution are among the most important indicators for assessing the population’s quality of life in urban agglomerations. This study aims to explore long-term memory in air pollution time series by analyzing the dynamics of the Hurst exponent and evaluating the predictability index. This type of statistical pre-forecast analysis is essential for developing accurate forecasting models for such time series. The effectiveness of air quality monitoring systems largely depends on the precision of these forecasts. The Ekibastuz coal-mining center, which houses one of the largest coal-fired power stations in Kazakhstan and the world, with a capacity of about 4000 MW, was chosen as an example for the study. Data for the period from 1 March 2023 to 31 December 2024 were collected and analyzed at the Ekibastuz coal-fired power station. During the specified period, 14 indicators (67,527 observations) were collected at 10 min intervals, including mass concentrations of CO, NO, NO₂, SO₂, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀, as well as current mass consumption of CO, NO, NO₂, SO₂, dust, and NO_x. The detrended fluctuation analysis of a time series of air pollution indicators was used to calculate the Hurst exponent and identify long-term memory. Changes in the Hurst exponent in regards to dynamics were also investigated, and a predictability index was calculated to monitor emissions of pollutants in the air. Long-term memory is recorded in the structure of all the time series of air pollution indicators. Dynamic analysis of the Hurst exponent confirmed persistent time series characteristics, with an average Hurst exponent of about 0.7. Identifying the time series plots for which the Hurst exponent is falling (analysis of the indicator of dynamics), along with the predictability index, is a sign of an increase in the influence of random factors on the time series. This is a sign of changes in the dynamics of the pollutant release concentrations and may indicate possible excess emissions that need to be controlled. Calculating the dynamic changes in the Hurst exponent for the emission time series made it possible to identify two distinct clusters corresponding to periods of persistence and randomness in the operation of the coal-fired power station. The study shows that evaluating the predictability index helps fine-tune the parameters of time series forecasting models, which is crucial for developing reliable air pollution monitoring systems. The results obtained in this study allow us to conclude that the method of trended fluctuation analysis can be the basis for creating an indicator of the level of air pollution, which allows us to quickly respond to possible deviations from the established standards. Environmental services can use the results to build reliable monitoring systems for air pollution from coal combustion emissions, especially near populated areas. Full article

Accurately identifying the sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is crucial for pollution control and public health protection. Taking the PM_2.5 pollution event that occurred in Suzhou in June 2023 as a typical case, this study analyzed the characteristics and components of PM_2.5, and quantified the contributions of meteorological conditions, regional transport, and local emissions to the summertime PM_2.5 surge in a typical Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city. Chemical composition analysis highlighted a sharp increase in nitrate ions (NO₃⁻, contributing up to 49% during peak pollution), with calcium ion (Ca²⁺) and sulfate ion (SO₄²⁻) concentrations rising to 2 times and 7.5 times those of clean periods, respectively. Results from the random forest model demonstrated that emission sources (74%) dominated this pollution episode, significantly surpassing the meteorological contribution (26%). The Weather Research and Forecasting model combined with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (WRF–CMAQ) further revealed that local emissions contributed the most to PM_2.5 concentrations in Suzhou (46.3%), while external transport primarily originated from upwind cities such as Shanghai and Jiaxing. The findings indicate synergistic effects from dust sources, industrial emissions, and mobile sources. Validation using electricity consumption and key enterprise emission data confirmed that intensive local industrial activities exacerbated PM_2.5 accumulation. Recommendations include strengthening regulations on local industrial and mobile source emissions, and enhancing regional joint prevention and control mechanisms to mitigate cross-boundary transport impacts. Full article

Accurate short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation is vital for the operational stability of isolated energy systems, especially in regions with increasing renewable energy penetration. This study presents a novel AI-based forecasting framework applied to the island of Cyprus. Using machine learning methods, particularly regression trees, the proposed approach evaluates the impact of key environmental variables on PV performance, with an emphasis on atmospheric dust transport and air composition variability. A distinguishing feature of this work is the integration of cross-continental dust events and diverse atmospheric parameters into a structured forecasting model. A new clustering methodology is introduced to classify these inputs and analyze their correlation with PV output, enabling improved feature selection for model training. Importantly, all input parameters are sourced from publicly accessible, internet-based platforms, facilitating wide reproducibility and operational application. The obtained results demonstrate that incorporating dust deposition and air composition features significantly enhances forecasting accuracy, particularly during severe dust episodes. This research not only fills a notable gap in the PV forecasting literature but also provides a scalable model for other dust-prone regions transitioning to high levels of solar energy integration. Full article

Parabolic trough collector (PTC) systems, often deployed in arid regions, are vulnerable to dust accumulation (soiling), which reduces mirror reflectivity and energy output. This study presents a physically based soiling forecast algorithm (SFA) designed to estimate soiling levels. The model was calibrated and validated using three meteorological data sources—numerical forecasts (YR), METAR observations, and on-site measurements—from a PTC facility in Limassol, Cyprus. Field campaigns covered dry, rainy, and red-rain conditions. The model demonstrated robust performance, particularly under dry summer conditions, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) below 1%. Sedimentation emerged as the dominant soiling mechanism, while the contributions of impaction and Brownian motion varied according to site-specific environmental conditions. Under dry deposition conditions, the reflectivity change rate during spring and autumn was approximately twice that of summer, indicating a need for more frequent cleaning during transitional seasons. A red-rain event resulted in a pronounced drop in reflectivity, showcasing the model’s ability to capture abrupt soiling dynamics associated with extreme weather episodes. The proposed SFA offers a practical, adaptable tool for reducing soiling-related losses and supporting seasonally adjusted maintenance strategies for solar thermal systems. Full article

Aerosols considerably reduce the upwelling radiance in the thermal infrared (IR) window; thus, it is worthwhile to understand the effects and challenges of assimilating aerosol-affected (i.e., hazy-sky) IR observations for all-sky data assimilation (DA). This study introduces an aerosol-aware DA framework for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) to exploit hazy-sky IR observations and investigate the impact of assimilating hazy-sky IR observations on analyses and subsequent forecasts. The DA framework consists of the detection of hazy-sky pixels and an observation error model as the function of the aerosol effect. Compared to the baseline experiment, the experiment utilized an aerosol-aware framework that reduces biases in the sea surface temperature in the tropical region, particularly over the areas affected by heavy dust plumes. There are no significant differences in the evaluation of the analyses and the 7-day forecasts between the experiments. To further improve the aerosol-aware framework, the enhancements in quality control (e.g., aerosol detection) and bias correction need to be addressed in the future. Full article

The performance of photovoltaic systems is highly dependent on environmental conditions, with soiling due to dust accumulation often being referred to as a predominant energy degradation factor, especially in dry and semi-arid environments. This paper introduces an AI-based robotic cleaning system that can independently forecast and schedule cleaning sessions from real-time sensor and environmental data. Methods: The system integrates sources of data like embedded sensors, weather stations, and DustIQ data to create an integrated dataset for predictive modeling. Machine learning models were employed to forecast soiling loss based on significant atmospheric parameters such as relative humidity, air pressure, ambient temperature, and wind speed. Dimensionality reduction through the principal component analysis and correlation-based feature selection enhanced the model performance as well as the interpretability. A comparative study of four conventional machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and support vector machine, was conducted to determine the most appropriate approach to classifying cleaning needs. Results: Performance, based on accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, demonstrated that logistic regression and SVM provided optimal classification performance with accuracy levels over 92%, and F1-scores over 0.90, demonstrating outstanding balance between recall and precision. The KNN and decision tree models, while slightly poorer in terms of accuracy (around 85–88%), had computational efficiency benefits, making them suitable for utilization in resource-constrained applications. Conclusions: The proposed system employs a dry-cleaning mechanism that requires no water, making it highly suitable for arid regions. It reduces unnecessary cleaning operations by approximately 30%, leading to decreased mechanical wear and lower maintenance costs. Additionally, by minimizing delays in necessary cleaning, the system can improve annual energy yield by 3–5% under high-soiling conditions. Overall, the intelligent cleaning schedule minimizes manual intervention, enhances sustainability, reduces operating costs, and improves system performance in challenging environments. Full article

This study aims to optimize daily forecasts of the PM2.5 concentrations in Dakar, Senegal using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. Particulate matter, aggravated by factors such as dust, traffic, and industrialization, poses a serious threat to public health, especially in developing countries. Existing models such as the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) have limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and complex dynamics in environmental data. Using four years of daily data collected at the Bel Air station, this study shows that the LSTM neural network model provides more accurate forecasts with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.2 μg/m³, whereas the RMSE for ARIMA is about 6.8 μg/m³. The LSTM model predicts reliably up to 7 days in advance, accurately reproducing extreme values, especially during dust event outbreaks and peak travel periods. Computational analysis shows that using Graphical Processing Unit and Tensor Processing Unit processors significantly reduce the execution time, improving the model efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Overall, these results highlight the usefulness of the LSTM network for air quality prediction and its potential for public health management in Dakar. Full article

Particulate matter is a mixture of fine dust and tiny droplets of liquid suspended in the air. PM₁₀ is a pollutant composed of particles smaller than 10 µm. These particles are harmful to the respiratory system. The air quality in the region and capital Lima in the Republic of Peru has been investigated in recent years. In this context, statistical analyses of PM₁₀ data with forecast models can contribute to planning actions that can improve air quality. The objective of this work is to perform a statistical analysis of the available PM₁₀ data and evaluate the quality of time series classical models and neural networks for short-term forecasting. This study demonstrates that classical time series models, particularly ARIMA and SSA, achieve lower average forecast errors than LSTM across stations SMP, CRB, and ATE. This finding suggests that for data with seasonal patterns and relatively short time series, traditional models may be more efficient and robust. Although neural networks have the potential to capture more complex relationships and long-term dependencies, their performance may be limited by hyperparameter settings and intrinsic data characteristics. Full article

PM₁₀ samples were collected at an urban site of Zhuozhou, the southern gateway of Beijing, from 28 December 2021 to 29 January 2022, in order to explore the chemical composition, sources and physical and chemical formation processes of prominent components. The results showed that five trace elements (Mn, Cu, As, Zn and Pb) had high enrichment in PM₁₀ and were closely related with anthropogenic combustion and vehicle emissions; organic and element carbon had a high correlation due to the same primary sources and similar evolution; nitrate dominated SNA (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium) and nitrate/sulfate ratios reached 2.35 on the polluted days owing to the significant contribution of motor vehicle emissions. Positive matrix factorization analysis indicated that secondary source, traffic, biomass burning, industry, coal combustion and crustal dust were the main sources of PM₁₀, contributing 32.5%, 20.9%, 15.0%, 13.9%, 9.4% and 8.3%, respectively; backward trajectories and potential source contribution function analysis showed that short-distance airflow was the dominant cluster and accounted for nearly 50% of total trajectories. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry, with integrated process rate analysis, showed that dominant gas-phase reactions (heterogeneous reaction) during daytime (nighttime) in presence of ammonia led to a significant enhancement of nitrate in Zhuozhou, contributing 12.6 μg/m³ in episode 1 and 22.9 μg/m³ in episode 2. Full article

PM_2.5 concentrations in major port cities in the Republic of Korea, such as Incheon and Busan, are as serious as those in land-based metropolises, such as Seoul, and fine dust generated in port cities is mainly emitted from ships. To identify the specific substances influencing local air quality, the occurrence and effects of high concentrations of PM_2.5 at the ports of Incheon and Busan were analyzed. To analyze the effects of improving air quality based on the Republic of Korea’s port and ship-related reduction measures, we calculated an emissions forecast for 2025 following the implementation/non-implementation of these measures and analyzed all impacts using the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modeling system. The ratio of ionic components constituting PM_2.5 at the ports of Incheon and Busan was generally high in nitrate composition; however, the ratio of sulfate was high on high PM_2.5 concentration days. When implementing measures to reduce emissions related to ports and ships, forecasted PM_2.5 and SO₂ emissions showed substantial decreases in port areas as well as nearby land and sea areas. The associated decrease in the PM_2.5 concentration was highly influential in reducing the concentration of sulfate. Full article

The northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the crucial affected area for dust originating from the Taklimakan Desert (TD). However, few studies have focused on the meteorological element responses to TD dust over different surface types near the TP. Satellite data and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to analyze the dust being transported from the TD to the TP and its effect from 30 July to 2 August 2016. In the TD, the middle-upper dust layer weakened the solar radiation reaching the lower dust layer, which reduced the temperature within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) during daytime. At night, the dust’s thermal preservation effect increased temperatures within the PBL and decreased temperatures at approximately 0.5 to 2.5 km above PBL. In the TP without snow cover, dust concentration was one-fifth of the TD, while the cooling layer intensity was comparable to the TD. However, within the PBL, the lower concentration and thickness of dust allowed dust to heat atmospheric continuously throughout the day. In the TP with snow cover, dust diminished planetary albedo, elevating temperatures above 6 km, hastening snow melting, which absorbed latent heat and increased the atmospheric water vapor content, consequently decreasing temperatures below 6 km. Surface meteorological element responses to dust varied significantly across different surface types. In the TD, 2 m temperature (T₂) decreased by 0.4 °C during daytime, with the opposite nighttime variation. In the TP without snow cover, T₂ was predominantly warming. In the snow-covered TP, T₂ decreased throughout the day, with a maximum cooling of 1.12 °C and decreased PBL height by up to 258 m. Additionally, a supplementary simulation of a dust event from 17 June to 19 June 2016 further validated our findings. The meteorological elements response to dust is significantly affected by the dust concentration, thickness, and surface type, with significant day–night differences, suggesting that surface types and dust distribution should be considered in dust effect studies to improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Full article

The response of low-level cloud properties to aerosol loading remains ambiguous, particularly due to the confounding influence of meteorological factors and water vapor availability. We utilize long-term data from Ka-band Zenith Radar, Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 to evaluate aerosol’s effects on low-level clouds under the constrains of meteorological conditions and liquid water path (LWP) over the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University during 2014–2019. To better constrain meteorological variability, we apply Principal Component Analysis to derive the first principal component (PC1), which strongly correlates with cloud properties, thereby enabling more accurate assessment of aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) under constrained meteorological conditions delineated by PC1. Analysis suggests that under favorable meteorological conditions for low-level cloud formation (low PC1) and moderate LWP levels (25–150 g/m²), ACI is characterized by a significantly negative ACI index, with the cloud effective radius (CER) increasing in response to rising aerosol concentrations. When constrained by both PC1 and LWP, the relationship between CER and the aerosol optical depth shows a distinct bifurcation into positive and negative correlations. Different aerosol types show contrasting effects: dust aerosols increase CER under favorable meteorological conditions, whereas sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols consistently decrease it, even under high-LWP conditions. Full article

Having good replication of the soil moisture evolution is desirable to properly simulate the dust emissions and atmospheric dust load because soil moisture increases the cohesive forces of soil particles, modulating the wind erosion threshold above which emissions occur. To reduce errors, one can use soil moisture retrievals from space-borne microwave radiometers. Here, we explore the potential of inserting soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to improve dust simulations. We focus our analysis on the contiguous U.S. due to the presence of important dust sources and good observational networks. Our analysis extends over the first year of SMAP retrievals (1 April 2015–31 March 2016) to cover the annual soil moisture variability and go beyond extreme events, such as dust storms, in order to provide a statistically robust characterization of the potential added value of the soil moisture retrievals. We focus on the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model from the Air Force Weather Agency (GOCART-AFWA) dust emission parameterization that represents soil moisture modulations of the wind erosion threshold with a parameterization developed by fitting observations. The dust emissions are overestimated by the GOCART-AFWA parameterization and result in an overestimation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD). Sensitivity experiments show that emissions reduced to 25% in the GOCART-AFWA simulations largely reduced the AOD bias over the Southwest and lead to better agreement with the standard WRF-Chem parameterization of dust emissions (GOCART) and with observations. Comparisons of GOCART-AFWA simulations with emissions reduced to 25% with and without SMAP soil moisture insertion show added value of the retrievals, albeit small, over the dust sources. These results highlight the importance of accurate dust emission parameterizations when evaluating the impact of remotely sensed soil moisture data on numerical weather prediction models. Full article