Search Results (2,802)

Rainfall, as the main driving force of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, has strong non-linear and abrupt characteristics, which makes it difficult to predict. As extreme weather events occur frequently in the Yellow River Basin, it is especially critical to reveal the physical mechanism of rainfall in the basin and integrate monthly scale meteorological data to achieve monthly rainfall prediction. In this paper, we propose a rainfall prediction model coupled with a physical mechanism and a temporal convolutional network (TCN) to achieve the prediction of monthly rainfall in the basin, aiming to reveal the physical mechanism between rainfall factors in the basin based on the transfer entropy and the multidimensional Copula function and based on the physical mechanism which is embedded into the TCN to construct a dual-driven prediction model with both physical knowledge and data, while the SHAP is used to analyze the interpretability of the prediction model. The results are as follows: (1) Temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation are key characteristic factors driving rainfall. (2) The physical mechanism features between temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation can be described by the three-dimensional Gumbel–Hougaard Copula function, with a more concentrated data distribution of their joint distribution probability. (3) The PHY-TCN model can accurately fit the extremes of the rainfall series, improving the model accuracy in the training set by 3.82%, 1.39%, and 9.82% compared to TCN, CNN, and LSTM, respectively, and in the test set by 6.04%, 2.55%, and 8.91%, respectively. (4) Embedding physical mechanisms enhances the contribution of individual feature variables in the PHY-TCN model and increases the persuasiveness of the model. This study provides a new research framework for rainfall prediction in the YRB and analyzes the physical relationship between the input data and output results of the deep learning model. It has important practical significance and strategic value for guiding the optimal scheduling of water resources, improving the risk management level of the basin, and promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the YRB. Full article

Springs fed by carbonate-fractured/karst aquifers support spring-dependent ecosystems and provide drinking water in the Italian Apennines, where complex hydro-meteorological environments are increasingly affected by prolonged droughts. The aim of this study was to investigate the hydrogeological behavior of two springs (Alzabove and Lupa) on the mountain ridge of Central Italy, using monthly reanalysis datasets to support sustainable water management. The Master Recession Curves based on the 1998–2023 recession periods highlighted a slightly higher average recession coefficient for Lupa (α = −0.0053 days⁻¹) than for Alzabove (α = −0.0020 days⁻¹). The hydrogeological settings of the Lupa recharge area led to a less resilient response to prolonged, extreme droughts as detected via the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) computed at different time scales using ERA-5 Land datasets. The SPEI computed at a 6-month scale (SPEI₆) showed the best correlation with monthly spring discharge, with a 1-month delay time. A parsimonious linear regression model was built using the antecedent monthly spring discharge values and SPEI₆ as independent variables. The best modeling performance was achieved for the Alzabove spring, with some overestimation of spring discharge during extremely dry conditions (e.g., 2002–2003 and 2012), especially for the Lupa spring. The findings are encouraging as they reflect the use of a simple tool developed to support decisions on the sustainable management of springs in mountain environments, although issues related to evapotranspiration underestimation during extreme droughts remain. Full article

Increasing global water scarcity has intensified the adoption of water reuse as a sustainable strategy, particularly in regions affected by drought and pressure on natural resources. This paper presents a systematic review of the application of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in water reuse projects, focusing on research trends, methodological approaches, and opportunities for improvement. A systematic search was conducted in Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2020 onwards using combinations of the keywords “life cycle assessment”, “LCA”, “water reuse”, “water recycling”, and “wastewater recycling”. Twelve studies were selected from 57 records identified, based on predefined eligibility criteria requiring quantitative LCA of water reuse systems. The results reveal a predominance of European research, reflecting regulatory advances and strong academic engagement in this field. The most frequently assessed impact categories were global warming, eutrophication, human toxicity and ecotoxicity, highlighting the environmental relevance of reuse systems. Energy consumption and water transport were identified as critical hotspots, especially in scenarios involving long distances and fossil-based energy sources. Nevertheless, most studies demonstrate that water reuse is environmentally viable, particularly when renewable energy and optimized logistics are applied. The review also emphasizes the need to better integrate economic and social dimensions and to adapt LCA methodologies to local conditions. Overall, the findings confirm LCA as a robust decision-support tool for sustainable planning and management of water reuse systems. Full article

Litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) is a pillar of the tropical agricultural economy in southern China, yet its production faces increasing instability due to climate change. Traditional agronomic models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear interactions between meteorological drivers and yield formation in perennial fruit trees. To address this challenge, the study constructed a yield prediction framework using an optimized Random Forest (RF) model integrated with interpretable machine learning (SHAP), based on a comprehensive dataset from 17 major production regions in Hainan Province (2000–2022). The model demonstrated robust predictive capability at the provincial scale (R² = 0.564, RMSE = 2.1 t/ha) and high consistency across regions (R² ranging from 0.51 to 0.94). Feature importance analysis revealed that heat accumulation (specifically growing degree days above 20 °C) is the dominant driver, explaining over 85% of yield variability. Crucially, scenario simulations uncovered asymmetric climate risks across phenological stages: while moderate warming generally enhances yield by promoting vegetative growth and ripening, it acts as a stressor during the Fruit Development stage, where temperatures exceeding 26 °C trigger yield decline. Furthermore, the yield penalty for drought during Flowering (−8.09%) far outweighed the marginal benefits of surplus rainfall, identifying this window as critically sensitive to water deficits. These findings underscore the necessity of phenology-aligned adaptation strategies—specifically, securing irrigation during flowering and deploying cooling interventions during fruit development—providing a data-driven basis for climate-smart management in tropical agriculture. Full article

Peatlands play a critical role in global and regional climate regulation by functioning as long-term carbon sinks, regulating hydrology, and modulating land–atmosphere energy exchange. Intact peat ecosystems store large amounts of organic carbon and stabilize local climate through high water retention and evapotranspiration, whereas peatland degradation disrupts these functions and can transform peatlands into significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions and climate extremes such as drought and fire. Indonesia contains approximately 13.6–40.5 Gt of carbon, around 40% of which is stored on the island of Sumatra. However, tropical peatlands in this region are highly vulnerable to climate anomalies and land-use change. This study investigates the impacts of major climate anomalies—specifically El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events in 1997/1998, 2015/2016, and 2019—on peatland cover change across South Sumatra, Jambi, Riau, and the Riau Islands. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor imagery were analyzed using a Random Forest machine learning classification approach. Climate anomaly periods were identified using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD indices from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. To enhance classification accuracy and detect vegetation and hydrological stress, spectral indices including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI) were integrated. The results show classification accuracies of 89–92%, with kappa values of 0.85–0.90. The 2015/2016 El Niño caused the most severe peatland degradation (>51%), followed by the 1997/1998 El Niño (23–38%), while impacts from the 2019 pIOD were comparatively limited. These findings emphasize the importance of peatlands in climate regulation and highlight the need for climate-informed monitoring and management strategies to mitigate peatland degradation and associated climate risks. Full article

This analysis examines long-term changes in water levels of the Mead and Glen Canyon reservoirs on the Colorado River. Both reservoirs display clear declining trends in water levels, particularly after 2003. The causes include a combination of climate change, megadrought, increased water consumption, and alterations in the hydrological regime. Lake Mead exhibits a stronger and more concerning decline than Lake Powell, including extreme drought conditions over the past three years. The Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) analysis identifies three statistically distinct subperiods, with an unambiguous decline in the most recent period. The day-to-day (DTD) method indicates reduced day-to-day water level variability in Lake Mead following the commissioning of the Powell reservoir, confirming its regulating influence. The Standardized Hydrological Index (SHI) indicates an accelerating intensification of drought conditions over the past 20 years. Regression analysis confirms a strong relationship between the water levels of the two reservoirs, along with significantly increased water losses in the more recent period. The literature suggests that climate projections are highly unfavorable, with further reductions in Colorado River discharge expected. The study underscores the urgent need to adapt water-management policies and align consumption with the new hydrological realities. Full article

Chinese fir [Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.] is a fast-growing species widely utilized in construction, industrial raw materials. Owing to its broad application scope, research on Chinese fir is fragmented across multiple disciplines, making it difficult to grasp the overall research context and trends. Following the PRISMA guidelines, we retrieved articles related to Chinese fir published between 1942 and 2024 from Chinese databases (i.e., CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP Chinese Journal Database) and the Web of Science Core Collection (WOSCC). After removing duplicate and irrelevant records, a total of 7174 valid records were retained, including 5862 from Chinese databases and 1312 from WOSCC. The PRISMA-screened literature was imported into CiteSpace V.6.2.R4 for bibliometric analysis. Through keyword clustering, burst detection, and timeline mapping, we focused on analyzing the domestic resource distribution, research hotspots, and evolutionary trends of Chinese fir research. The results showed that research publications on Chinese fir have increased year by year, and international research started earlier and is more in-depth, while Chinese research covers a wider scope. Both follow two stages (germination and growth). Chinese research focuses on basic application areas such as seedling cultivation and plantation management; international research emphasizes ecological functions and biomass development. Global research exhibits convergence in the field of eco-environmental interactions; specifically, both domestic and international studies investigate the impacts of climate change (e.g., drought and global warming) and nitrogen deposition on the growth and functional evolution of Chinese fir. This study provides references for researchers, forestry policymakers, and planters. Full article

This study addresses the issue of water losses in drinking water distribution networks, a problem exacerbated by climate change, drought, and aging infrastructure. The research was conducted in the operational area of Frýdek-Místek, managed by Severomoravské vodovody a kanalizace Ostrava a.s., covering 59 municipalities, 1024.4 km of pipeline, and more than 32,594 service connections. The objective was to evaluate the impact of implementing the “Leakage monitor” software system (ver. 19-11-2024), which focuses on continuous monitoring of minimum night flows (Q_min), on the reduction in Non-Revenue Water (NRW). The system, deployed since 2019, enables automated data collection, remote transmission, and analysis for timely leak detection and localization using acoustic and correlator methods within district metered areas. The results confirmed a reduction in NRW from 14.6% in 2019 to 11.5% in 2024. The implementation of a “Leak monitor” has proven to be an effective tool for improving operational efficiency and ensuring both economic and environmental sustainability of water supply systems. Full article

This study introduces the Hybrid Hydrological Forecast System (HHFS), a dual-stage, data-driven framework for monthly streamflow forecasting at the Santa Branca outlet in the upper Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Brazil. The system combines two nonlinear regressors, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), calibrated through a structured four-step evolutionary procedure in GA₁ (hydrological weighting, dual-regime Ridge fusion, rolling bias correction, and monthly mean–variance adjustment) and a hydro-adaptive probabilistic optimization in GA₂. SHAP-based analysis provides physical interpretability of the learned relations. The regressive stage (GA₁) generates a bias-corrected and climatologically consistent central forecast. After the full four-step optimization, GA₁ achieves robust generalization skill during the independent test period (2020–2023), yielding NSE = 0.77 ± 0.05, KGE = 0.85 ± 0.05, R² = 0.77 ± 0.05, and RMSE = 20.2 ± 3.1 m³ s⁻¹, representing a major improvement over raw MLP/XGB outputs (NSE ≈ 0.5). Time-series, scatter, and seasonal diagnostics confirm accurate reproduction of wet- and dry-season dynamics, absence of low-frequency drift, and preservation of seasonal variance. The probabilistic stage (GA₂) constructs a hydro-adaptive prediction interval whose width (max-min streamflow) and asymmetry evolve with seasonal hydrological regimes. The optimized configuration achieves comparative coverage COV = 0.86 ± 0.00, hit rate p = 0.96 ± 0.04, and relative width r = 2.40 ± 0.15, correctly expanding uncertainty during wet-season peaks and contracting during dry-season recessions. SHAP analysis reveals a coherent predictor hierarchy dominated by streamflow persistence, precipitation structure, temperature extremes, and evapotranspiration, jointly explaining most of the predictive variance. By combining regressive precision, probabilistic realism, and interpretability within a unified evolutionary architecture, the HHFS provides a transparent, physically grounded, and operationally robust tool for reservoir management, drought monitoring, and hydro-climatic early-warning systems in data-limited regions. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) refers to the total water vapor flux transported by vegetation and surface soil to the atmosphere. It is an important component of water and heat regulation, and has an impact on plant productivity and water resource management. As a water-shortage region, the Mongolian Plateau is characterized by drought and an uneven distribution of rainwater resources. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ET on the Mongolian Plateau is important for water resource regulation for climate change adaption and regional sustainable development. This study calculated the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the actual ET in the Mongolian Plateau based on the SFE-NP model and generated a surface ET dataset with a spatial resolution of 1 km and monthly temporal resolution from 2001 to 2020. Theil-Sen median and Mann–Kendall trend models were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the actual ET over the Mongolian Plateau. This dataset has been validated for accuracy against the commonly used authoritative ET datasets ERA5_Land and MOD16A2, demonstrating high precision and accuracy. This dataset can provide data support for research and applications such as surface water resource allocation and drought detection in the Mongolian Plateau. Full article

This study integrates 90 years of hydrometeorological observations (1930/31–2019/20) with end-century projections (2080–2099) to evaluate climate-driven changes in the water balance of the Nitra River basin (2094 km²), Slovakia. Despite a modest 2–3% increase in annual precipitation from 1930/31–1959/60 to 1990/91–2019/20, mean annual runoff declined from 229 mm to 201 mm (≈−12%), primarily due to enhanced evapotranspiration stemming from a +1.08 °C basin-wide temperature increase. An empirical regression from 90 hydrological years shows that +100 mm in precipitation boosts runoff by ≈41 mm, while +1 °C in temperature reduces it by ≈13 mm. The BILAN monthly water balance model was calibrated for 1930/31–2019/20 to decompose runoff components. Over the 90-year period, the modeled annual runoff averaged 222 mm, comprising a 112 mm baseflow (50.4%), a 91 mm interflow (41.0%), and a 19 mm direct runoff (8.6%), underscoring the key role of groundwater and subsurface flows in sustaining streamflow. In the second part of our study, the monthly water balance model BILAN was recalibrated for 1995–2014 to simulate future runoff under three CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Under the sustainability pathway SSP1-1.9 (+0.88 °C; +1.1% precipitation), annual runoff decreases by 8.9%. The middle-of-the-road scenario SSP2-4.5 (+2.6 °C; +3.1% precipitation) projects a 17.5% decline in annual runoff, with particularly severe reductions in autumn months (September −32.3%, October −35.8%, December −40.4%). The high-emission pathway SSP5-8.5 (+5.1 °C; +0.4% precipitation) yields the most dramatic impact with a 35.2% decrease in annual runoff and summer deficits exceeding 45%. These results underline the extreme sensitivity of a mid-sized Central European basin to temperature-driven evapotranspiration and the critical importance of emission mitigation, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies, including new storage infrastructure to address both winter floods and intensifying summer droughts. Full article

Wildfire regimes are undergoing rapid transformation under anthropogenic climate change, with major implications for biodiversity, carbon cycling, and ecosystem resilience. This systematic review synthesizes findings from 42 studies across global, continental, and regional scales to assess emerging patterns in fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality, and to identify climatic, ecological, and anthropogenic drivers shaping these changes. Across biomes, evidence shows increasingly fire-conducive conditions driven by rising temperatures, vapor-pressure deficit, and intensifying drought, with climate model projections indicating amplification of extreme fire weather this century. Boreal ecosystems show heightened fire danger and carbon-cycle vulnerability; Mediterranean and Iberian regions face extended fire seasons and faster spread rates; tropical forests, particularly the Amazon, are shifting toward more flammable states due to drought–fragmentation interactions; and savannas display divergent moisture- and fuel-limited dynamics influenced by climate and land use. These results highlight the emergence of biome-specific fire–climate–fuel feedback that may push certain ecosystems toward alternative stable states. The review underscores the need for improved attribution frameworks, integration of fire–vegetation–carbon feedback into Earth system models, and development of adaptive, regionally tailored fire-management strategies. Full article

Availability of irrigation water during growing seasons in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) remains a significant concern. Persistent droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns attributed to climate change, coupled with an increasing population, have exacerbated irrigation water scarcity. Globally, treated wastewater has been utilised as an irrigation water source; however, despite global advances in the usage of treated wastewater, its suitability for irrigation in RSA remains a contentious issue. Considering this uncertainty, this review article aims to unravel the South African scenario on the suitability of treated wastewater for irrigation purposes and highlights the potential environmental impacts and public health risks. The review synthesised literature in the last two decades (2000–present) using Web of Science, ScienceDirect, ResearchGate, and Google Scholar databases. Findings reveal that treated wastewater can serve as a viable irrigation source in the country, enhancing various soil parameters, including nutritional pool, organic carbon, and fertility status. However, elevated levels of salts, heavy metals, and microplastics in treated wastewater resulting from insufficient treatment of wastewater processes may present significant challenges. These contaminants might induce saline conditions and increase heavy metals and microplastics in soil systems and water bodies, thereby posing a threat to public health and potentially causing ecological risks. Based on the reviewed literature, irrigation with treated wastewater should be implemented on a localised and pilot basis. This review aims to influence policy-making decisions regarding wastewater treatment plant structure and management. Stricter monitoring and compliance policies, revision of irrigation water standards to include emerging contaminants such as microplastics, and intensive investment in wastewater treatment plants in the country are recommended. With improved policies, management, and treatment efficiency, treated wastewater can be a dependable, sustainable, and practical irrigation water source in the country with minimal public health risks. Full article

In the context of global climate change, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a robust proxy for gross primary productivity, is modulated by the coupled effects of soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). However, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in the SM–VPD–SIF interactions and their modulation by land use/cover change (LUCC) remain inadequately explored, particularly in transitional agricultural zones. This study utilized growing-season data (2001–2020) from Henan Province, China, and applied an integrated analytical framework combining Random Forest with GeoShapley analysis, alongside threshold detection and sensitivity modeling. The analysis was stratified by three dominant LUCC types: cropland, natural land, and built-up area. The key findings are as follows: (1) VPD and its geographic interaction terms (VPD × Longitude, VPD × Latitude) dominated the variability in SIF, exhibiting a combined contribution (Shapley value) over six times greater than that of SM and its geographic interactions. (2) LUCC-specific thresholds were identified: croplands exhibited the lowest SM threshold (approx. 0.231 m³/m³) and the highest sensitivity to VPD (−0.234 ± 0.018); natural lands displayed a shift from SM-dominated to VPD-dominated regulation at a VPD threshold of approximately 0.7 kPa; built-up areas showed weak environmental coupling. (3) The co-occurrence of high SM and high VPD induced significant SIF suppression in croplands, whereas natural lands demonstrated greater hydraulic resilience. This study provides a quantitative framework for understanding spatially explicit SM–VPD–SIF interactions and offers actionable thresholds (e.g., VPD of 0.7–0.8 kPa) to inform precision irrigation and drought risk management in transitional agricultural climates under future climate scenarios. Full article

Pan evaporation (PE) is widely used as an indicator of atmospheric evaporative demand and is relevant to irrigation demand and climate-related hydrological changes. Using daily records from 759 meteorological stations across China during 2002–2018, this study investigated the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and climatic controls of PE across seven major climate zones. Multiple decomposition techniques revealed a dominant annual cycle and a pronounced peak in 2018, while a decreasing interannual trend was observed nationwide. Spatial analyses showed a clear north–south contrast, with the strongest declines occurring in northern China. A random forest (RF) model was employed to quantify the contributions of climatic variables, achieving high predictive performance. RF results indicated that the dominant drivers of PE varied substantially across climate zones: sunshine duration (as a proxy for solar radiation) and air temperature mainly controlled PE in humid regions, while wind speed and relative humidity (RH) exerted stronger influences in arid and semi-arid regions. The widespread decline in northern China is consistent with concurrent changes in wind speed and sunshine duration, together with humidity conditions, which modulate evaporative demand at monthly scales. These findings highlight substantial spatial heterogeneity in PE responses to climate forcing and provide insights for drought assessment and water resource management in a warming climate. Full article