Search Results (213)

To address the challenges of strong volatility, pronounced non-stationarity, and the inability of single models to simultaneously capture local dynamics and global dependencies in photovoltaic (PV) power series under complex weather conditions, this study proposes a short-term PV power forecasting framework that integrates weather-based clustering, signal decomposition, parameter optimization, and hybrid neural networks. First, a density-based clustering algorithm, namely Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), is employed to partition historical samples into distinct weather regimes, thereby mitigating the impact of heterogeneous meteorological conditions on model stability. Second, to handle the strong non-stationarity of PV power series, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) is introduced to decompose the original signal into multiple intrinsic components. The Crested Porcupine Optimizer (CPO) is further utilized to adaptively optimize key VMD parameters, including the number of modes and the penalty factor, thereby improving decomposition quality. Finally, a hybrid LSTM–Transformer forecasting model is constructed to jointly capture local temporal dynamics and long-range dependencies. The Newton–Raphson-Based Optimizer (NRBO) is employed to optimize critical hyperparameters, including the learning rate, regularization coefficient, and the number of hidden units, thereby enhancing model performance. The proposed method is validated using real-world data from a PV power station in Alice Springs, Australia. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared with the LSTM–Transformer baseline, the proposed model achieves reductions in RMSE of 0.086, 0.082, and 0.097 kW, and reductions in MAE of 0.062, 0.082, and 0.081 kW under clear-sky, cloudy, and rainy/snowy conditions, respectively. The corresponding R² values reach 0.993, 0.968, and 0.958. These results indicate that the proposed framework exhibits strong predictive performance across different weather scenarios and provides a reliable reference for short-term PV power forecasting and grid dispatching decisions. Full article

The increasing electrification of urban transportation has formulated a tightly coupled energy-mobility nexus. Under extreme disaster events or grid faults, rapidly restoring power supply capacity and re-dispatching shared electric vehicle (EV) fleets are critical for enhancing system resilience. Existing co-optimization methods face the curse of dimensionality when dealing with high-dimensional discrete grid reconfigurations and continuous spatio-temporal EV queuing dynamics. While multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MADRL) offers real-time responsiveness, it inherently struggles to satisfy strict physical constraints, frequently generating infeasible and unsafe actions. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a heuristic-guided safe multi-agent reinforcement learning (Safe-MADRL) framework for the resilient dispatch of the energy-mobility nexus. Instead of relying solely on black-box neural networks, the framework structurally embeds physical models and heuristic solvers into the learning loop. A quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm acts as a heuristic action refiner to ensure that grid topology actions strictly comply with non-linear power flow and voltage constraints. Simultaneously, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model coupled with a single-queue multi-server (SQMS) model serves as a safety projection layer. This layer mathematically guarantees EV battery energy continuity and accurately quantifies spatio-temporal queuing delays at charging stations. Case studies on a coupled IEEE 33-node distribution system and a regional transportation network demonstrate that the proposed Safe-MADRL framework achieves zero physical violations during training and significantly outperforms traditional mathematical optimization and pure learning-based methods in computational efficiency, system power loss reduction, and overall operational economy. Full article

Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it directly influences generation scheduling, grid stability, and energy market operations. Forecast errors can lead to significant economic losses, including increased balancing costs, inefficient dispatch of backup generation, and penalties in electricity markets. However, wind behaviour is highly complex due to the influence of synoptic weather systems, terrain variability, and turbulence, which makes accurate prediction particularly challenging. This paper proposes a hybrid modelling framework that combines a linear regression mean model with Gaussian process (GP) residual modelling to improve forecast accuracy. Monitoring stations were grouped based on geographic coordinates and elevation, with cluster validation using the Hopkins statistic and silhouette analysis. The results show that for high-elevation inland stations (cluster 2), GP residual modelling improves forecast accuracy by up to 16.3%. In contrast, for low-elevation coastal stations (cluster 1), the GP approach does not yield improvements, indicating that its effectiveness depends strongly on the underlying wind regime. Full article

This article assesses the potential for intra-day redistribution of the electrical load of water intake systems under different electricity tariff models, using water supply systems in Belarus and China as case studies. It demonstrates how tariff policy influences the electrical load profile of a water intake system and quantitatively evaluates the economic effect of optimizing the operating modes of pumping equipment. The analysis is based on daily profiles of electric power and water supply. For the Belarusian water supply system, data for 2019 were considered, corresponding to the baseline operating mode without targeted load management, and data for 2023 were considered after the transition to dispatch-based control of well activation with account taken of tariff constraints (without automation tools). For the Chinese water intake system, hourly data for 2025 were used. The load redistribution potential was assessed on the basis of lagged correlation between power and water supply profiles. In addition, the F-index was applied as an aggregated diagnostic indicator intended for the comparative assessment of potential load transferability across technological stages, taking into account their share in total energy consumption. For the Chinese case, it was shown that the maximum correlation between water supply and electricity consumption across all technological stages is achieved near zero lag, which indicates a high adaptation of system operating modes to current demand; at the same time, the R values were 0.19 for reservoir intake, 0.86 for water treatment, and 0.51 for the pumping station. In the Belarusian case, for the first-lift stage, the maximum correlation is shifted by −6 h relative to zero lag, indicating a less rigid linkage of pump operation to current demand and a more inertial response of the system. A comparison of 2019 and 2023 for the Belarusian facility showed that targeted regulation of well activation and load redistribution across tariff zones reduced the total electricity cost by 1.58%, confirming the potential for further optimization of electricity consumption regimes. Full article

With the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), the deep integration of transportation and power grids has emerged as a significant trend. EV charging stations, acting as dynamic loads, present challenges to real-time power balance and economic dispatch in microgrids, while EVs serving as mobile energy storage units offer new opportunities for system flexibility. To address these issues, this paper proposes a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) co-design method for vehicle–grid-integrated microgrid energy management systems, covering the entire workflow from simulation to embedded deployment. This method resolves the core challenges of multi-objective optimization algorithm deployment on embedded platforms (i.e., high computational complexity, strict real-time constraints, and heterogeneous communication protocol integration) via deployability analysis, hybrid code generation, real-time task restructuring, and consistency validation. A prototype microgrid system integrating photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, diesel generators, an energy storage system, and EV charging loads was built on the RK3588 embedded platform. An improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm is employed to optimize operational costs. Experimental results verify the effectiveness of the proposed co-design method. Compared with traditional rule-based control strategies, the MOPSO algorithm reduces the total daily operating cost of the VGIM system by approximately 50%. After integrating vehicle-to-grid (V2G) scheduling, the operating cost is further reduced. In addition, this method ensures the consistency of algorithm functionality and performance during the migration from HIL simulation to embedded deployment, and the RK3588-based embedded system can complete a single optimization iteration within 60 s, which fully satisfies the real-time requirements of industrial applications. This work provides a feasible technical pathway for the reliable deployment of vehicle–grid-integrated microgrids in practical industrial scenarios. Full article

Under fault conditions, Photovoltaic-Storage-Charging Integrated Stations (PSCISs) are regarded as a key resource for enhancing distribution network resilience. However, traditional centralized optimization fails to account for conflicts of interest between the distribution network and PSCISs and neglects the actual response behavior of EV users. To address these issues, a coordinated emergency operation strategy for distribution networks and PSCISs based on the master–slave game is proposed. Firstly, a bilevel optimization framework based on the master–slave game is constructed, where the upper level performs system-level coordination and the lower level handles autonomous decision-making. For the upper level, the minimization of distribution network operation cost is set as the optimization objective by the dispatching center to determine power purchase prices and load shedding rates, which serve as guidance signals for lower-level PSCISs. In terms of the lower level, a dual-factor S-shaped response curve is introduced into the lower-level model to precisely characterize EV users’ nonlinear response behavior to price incentives. Furthermore, based on the signals received from the upper level, the maximization of each PSCIS’s profit is set as the optimization objective to determine the PV output, storage dispatch, and V2G incentive prices. Subsequently, Model Predictive Control (MPC) is employed to implement rolling optimization during the fault period, addressing the source-load uncertainties. Finally, an improved IEEE 33-node distribution network is used for case analysis and validation of the proposed operation strategy. The results indicate that the proposed strategy can effectively coordinate the interests of multiple parties, achieving synergistic improvements in both the economy and reliability of the distribution network. Full article

Train track occupancy detection is essential for railway operation safety and dispatching, yet GNSS-based positioning and track matching can degrade or fail in turnouts and station yards due to multipath, interference, and dense track layouts. This paper presents an IMU-only method to discriminate track-switching events during turnout passage by exploiting the transient change in heading angular velocity. The Z-axis gyroscope measurement (approximately aligned with the track-plane normal) is used as a heading-rate proxy, and a lightweight indicator is constructed from the difference between a short-window moving average and the full-run mean. The full-run mean further serves as an in situ approximation of the gyroscope zero bias, alleviating the need for pre-calibration and improving robustness to systematic drift. A fixed discrimination threshold is determined from stationary gyroscope noise statistics, and the minimum effective operating speed is derived by combining gyro noise characteristics with the kinematic relationship among train speed, turnout curvature radius, and heading rate. Field experiments conducted from January to April 2025 on three railway sections covering 27 turnouts (300 turnout-passage events) show that, using a constant threshold $T_0=0.002\mathrm{rad}/\mathrm{s}$, the proposed method achieves 100% track-switching discrimination accuracy within 5–40 km/h, without requiring track maps, GNSS, or prior databases. Full article

The large-scale integration of renewable energy necessitates enhanced flexibility in power grids. As aggregators, electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs) can provide potential grid services via vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology. Against the challenge from the intertwined uncertainties of transmission system operation and renewable energy output limit, the private ownership of EVCSs limit their practical implementation. To exploit the flexibility of EVCSs to cope with the system operational uncertainties, this paper proposes a novel multi-stage coordination framework for EVCS flexibility utilization, based on a demand response incentive mechanism. The framework explicitly incorporates the operational constraints and charging/discharging strategies of EVCSs into the demand response clearing and dispatch mechanism. Specifically, adaptive robust optimization (ARO) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) are employed to model the heterogeneous uncertainties of transmission operational requirements and renewable energy output, respectively. The model is solved in a distributed manner using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), with a tailored column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm developed to solve the regional problems. Simulation results confirm that the proposed method improves both economic efficiency and renewable energy accommodation. Full article

In electric vehicle logistics, limited range and charging station capacity pose critical challenges to route planning, with direct implications for the sustainability of transportation systems. Conventional electric vehicle routing problem (EVRP) models that account for charger capacity typically rely on discrete-time approximations or fixed charging rules, failing to capture continuous-time waiting behavior or flexible charging decisions. These limitations may lead to additional vehicle dispatch, resulting in energy waste and increased carbon emissions. This study develops a novel EVRP model that simultaneously incorporates constraints on both station and battery capacity, and proposes a tailored genetic-algorithm-based heuristic to address computational challenges. The model innovatively employs a set of linear constraints to precisely represent limited chargers in continuous time, clearly distinguishing vehicle charging from waiting. Moreover, it enables vehicles to autonomously determine optimal charging amounts based on route and battery state, rather than following preset rules. Numerical results on an eight-customer instance show that the proposed model reduces total task completion time from 98.9 units to 60.4 units, a 38.9% improvement, compared to the conventional vehicle-count-based capacity constraint. On a 20-customer instance, the proposed heuristic obtains an objective value of 101.99 within 15 s, whereas Gurobi requires 205 s to achieve a marginally better value of 99.00. For a 60-customer network, the proposed GA converges within 30 s, and sensitivity analysis on charger availability further validates the model’s effectiveness. These results validate the model’s capability under limited charging resources and the algorithm’s scalability for time-sensitive logistics scheduling. Full article

Background/Objectives: Survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is strongly influenced by the no-flow interval—the time between cardiac arrest and initiation of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR)—with the probability of good neurological outcome decreasing by 13% per minute without circulation. Rapid mobilization of all available responders is therefore critical. Fire services, due to their widespread local presence, can shorten response times, but turnout times—particularly in departments staffed with volunteers—may limit their benefit. In sparsely populated regions, dual dispatch of emergency medical service (EMS) and fire services may help reduce arrival times and thus improve outcomes. Methods: Response times to 1000 hypothetical OHCAs in Lower Austria (19,000 km², 1.73 million population) were modelled. Travel times were calculated from 121 EMS stations and 1590 fire stations using the fastest route. Turnout times were set at two minutes for EMS and five minutes for fire services, with a sensitivity analysis for eight minutes for fire services. For each event, the shortest travel time was compared for both single EMS and dual EMS and fire service dispatch. Results: Mean response time was 10.6 min (SD 4.7) for EMS alone vs. 7.2 min (SD 2.2) with dual dispatch (p < 0.0001). At the 90th percentile, times were 16.8 vs. 9.7 min. Within 10 min, 49.0% of cases were reached by EMS alone vs. 92.6% with dual dispatch; fire services arrived first in 62.7% of all simulations. With an 8 min turnout, mean dual-dispatch arrival increased to 8.8 min (SD 2.9), with 68.2% of all patients reached within 10 min and firefighters arriving first in 42.9%. Conclusions: Dual dispatch of fire services and EMS significantly reduced response times, particularly in areas with a low population density. Using a dual dispatch strategy, response times were below 10 min in nearly all of the patients. Full article

Does where an incident happens affect how quickly first responders arrive? Timely emergency responses are important to urban safety. However, the combined influence of street-level environments, operational conditions, and neighborhood contexts on dispatch performance remains unclear. We examined such geographical complexity by modeling geographic predictors for whether emergency vehicles successfully arrived at incidents in the city of Dallas within the city’s eight-minute benchmark. Using 250,647 incidents and 56 million GPS points along emergency dispatch routes in 2016, we compiled fourteen spatial and operational variables for every incident to train a Bayesian-optimized random forest classifier. The fourteen variables characterized street network topology, roadway attributes, land use, and socioeconomic status, and the model achieved an accuracy of 77.26% in predicting whether emergency response arrived at an incident within eight minutes. A longer distance to dispatch stations, dispatching from non-nearest stations, and low street–network integration were the strongest predictors of unsuccessful responses. Higher-income areas showed slightly elevated unsuccessful rates linked to frequent construction-related disruptions. These findings highlight emergency response as a coupled spatial–operational–temporal process and underscore the need for context-sensitive dispatch strategies and coordinated urban planning. Full article

Hydropower plays a key regulating role in new-type power systems, and both forecasting accuracy and interpretability are critical for power dispatch. However, cascade hydropower forecasting is constrained by strong spatiotemporal coupling among multi-dimensional features, flow propagation delays, as well as the limited transparency of deep learning models. To tackle these issues, this paper develops a hybrid framework integrating Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC), the Long- and Short-term Time-series Network (LSTNet), and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretability method. First, an MIC-based nonlinear screening mechanism is employed to remove redundant noise and construct a high-quality input space. Second, an LSTNet model is developed to deeply extract spatiotemporal coupling features among cascade stations and flow evolution patterns, achieving high-accuracy forecasting of both system-level and station-level outputs. Finally, SHAP is used for global and local interpretability analysis to perform physics-consistency verification with respect to the model’s decision-making rationale. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach achieves low errors in total output forecasting, reducing error levels by approximately 57–88% compared with Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Informer. Moreover, SHAP feature-dependence analysis reveals a nonlinear response change of station D around 7.8 MW, providing evidence for the physical consistency of the model outputs and improving model interpretability. Full article

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distribution networks face elevated risks of power disruptions, which call for rapid and flexible emergency response mechanisms. There are not enough traditional emergency generator vehicles, and they are not highly adaptable when it comes to operations, which makes it hard to meet changing dispatching needs. Electric vehicles (EVs), on the other hand, can be used as distributed emergency resources that can be dispatched through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) interaction. Electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs), on the other hand, are integrated energy storage units that use existing charging infrastructure to provide on-site grid support. To address this gap, this study proposes a comprehensive V2G-powered pre- and post-disaster coordination framework for enhancing distribution network resilience, with three core novelties: first, a refined individual EV model considering dual power and energy constraints is developed, and the Minkowski summation method is applied to accurately quantify the real-time aggregate regulation potential of EVCSs for the first time; second, a two-stage robust optimization model is formulated for pre-event strategic planning, which jointly optimizes EVCS participant selection and distribution network topology to address photo-voltaic (PV) power generation uncertainties; third, a multi-source collaborative dynamic scheduling model is constructed for post-disaster recovery, which explicitly incorporates the spatiotemporal dynamics of EVs and coordinates EVCSs, gas turbine generators (GTGs) and other resources for the first time. We carried out simulations on a modified IEEE 33-bus system with a 10 h extreme fault scenario. The results show that the proposed strategy raises the average critical load recovery ratio to 97.7% (2% higher than traditional deterministic optimization), lowers the total load shedding power by 0.2 MW and the load reduction cost by 19,797.63 CNY, and gives a net V2G power output of 3.42 MW (86.9% higher than the comparison strategy). The proposed V2G-enabled coordinated pre- and post-disaster fault recovery strategy significantly improves the resilience of distribution networks compared to traditional methods. This makes it easier and faster to recover from extreme disaster scenarios, with the overall load recovery rate reaching 91.8% and the critical load restoration rate staying above 85% throughout the recovery process. Full article

This paper addresses the critical challenges of multi-stakeholder interest coordination and low-carbon operation in modern power systems, specifically focusing on the interaction among an Integrated Energy System (IES), Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (EVCS), and Load Aggregators (LA). To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel data-model driven optimization framework. A bi-level model is established, where the upper-level IES acts as the leader, and the lower-level EVCS and LA serve as followers. At the core of our approach is an integrated dynamic pricing mechanism that synergistically combines EVCS operational schedules, carbon emission signals, and load demand response. This mechanism, enhanced by predictive insights from historical data, effectively guides lower-level entities to participate in the upper-level IES’s optimization, thereby aligning individual benefits with system-wide low-carbon goals. The resulting bi-level problem is solved iteratively using CPLEX, with the optimal equilibrium selected via a joint optimality formula. The proposed methodology is validated on a multi-stakeholder case study. Results demonstrate that our AI-enhanced dynamic pricing and dispatch model not only effectively balances the interests of all parties but also significantly improves the system’s low-carbon economic performance, showcasing the potential of integrating physical models with data-driven insights for future energy system management. Full article

With the acceleration of urbanization, public transit systems face prominent challenges, including insufficient passenger flow prediction accuracy and low scheduling efficiency. This study analyzes passenger flow variation patterns from both spatial and temporal dimensions, constructs spatiotemporal matrices, and employs matrix dimensionality reduction methods to extract key features. We propose a passenger flow prediction model based on GCN-AM-LSTM and a dynamic real-time intelligent scheduling strategy. For passenger flow prediction, the model first utilizes Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) to extract spatial features of the transit network, then employs Attention Mechanism-enhanced Long Short-Term Memory networks (AM-LSTM) to perform weighted extraction of temporal features, and finally integrates external factors such as weather conditions to generate prediction outputs. For scheduling optimization, a dynamic real-time scheduling mode is adopted: the foundational framework optimizes dynamic departure timetables using a multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm, which is then combined with real-time passenger flow data to adjust departure intervals at the route level and implement stop-skipping strategies at the station level. Validation was conducted using Xiamen BRT Line 1 as a case study. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed GCN-AM-LSTM prediction model reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 14% and 22% compared to CNN and LSTM models, respectively, achieving significantly improved prediction accuracy. Regarding scheduling optimization, the number of departures decreased by 15.24%, passenger waiting time costs were reduced by 3.7%, and transit operating costs decreased by 3.19%, effectively balancing service quality and operational efficiency. Full article