Search Results (250)

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

Ice wedges, which are ubiquitous in permafrost areas, play a significant role in the evolution of permafrost landscapes, influencing the topography and hydrology of these regions. In this paper, we combine a detailed multi-generational, interdisciplinary, and international literature review along with our own field experiences to explore the development of low-centered ice-wedge polygons and their orthogonal networks. Low-centered polygons, a type of ice-wedge polygonal ground characterized by elevated rims and lowered wet central basins, are critical indicators of permafrost conditions. The formation of these features has been subject to numerous inconsistencies and debates since their initial description in the 1800s. The development of elevated rims is attributed to different processes, such as soil bulging due to ice-wedge growth, differential frost heave, and the accumulation of vegetation and peat. The transition of low-centered polygons to flat-centered, driven by processes like peat accumulation, aggradational ice formation, and frost heave in polygon centers, has been generally overlooked. Low-centered polygons occur in deltas, on floodplains, and in drained-lake basins. There, they are often arranged in orthogonal networks that comprise a complex system. The prevailing explanation of their formation does not match with several field studies that practically remain unnoticed or ignored. By analyzing controversial subjects, such as the degradational or aggradational nature of low-centered polygons and the formation of orthogonal ice-wedge networks, this paper aims to clarify misconceptions and present a cohesive overview of lowland terrain ice-wedge dynamics. The findings emphasize the critical role of ice wedges in shaping Arctic permafrost landscapes and their vulnerability to ongoing climatic and landscape changes. Full article

Tropical peatlands store approximately 105 gigatons of carbon (GtC), serving as vital long-term carbon sinks, yet remain critically underrepresented in climate policy. Indonesia peatlands contain 57GtC—the largest tropical peatland carbon stock in the Asia–Pacific. However, decades of drainage, fires, and lax enforcement practices have degraded vast peatland areas, turning them from carbon sinks into emission sources—as evidenced by the 1997 and 2015 peatland fires which emitted 2.57 Gt CO₂eq and 1.75 Gt CO₂eq, respectively. Using system theory validated against historical data (1997–2023), we develop a causal loop model revealing three interconnected feedback loops driving irreversible collapse: (1) drainage–desiccation–oxidation, where water table below −40 cm triggers peat oxidation (2–5 cm subsistence) and fires; (2) fire–climate–permafrost, wherein emissions intensify radiative forcing, destabilizing monsoons and accelerating Arctic permafrost thaw (+15% since 2000); and (2) economy–governance failure, perpetuated by palm oil’s economic dominance and slack regulatory oversight. To break these vicious cycles, we propose a precautionary framework featuring IoT-enforced water table (≤40 cm), reducing emissions by 34%, legally protected “Global Climate Stabilization Zones” for peat domes (>3 m depth), safeguarding 57 GtC, and ASEAN transboundary enforcement funded by a 1–3% palm oil levy. Without intervention, annual emissions may reach 2.869 GtCO₂e by 2030 (Nationally Determined Contribution’s business-as-usual scenario). Conversely, rewetting 590 km²/year aligns with Indonesia’s FOLU Net Sink 2030 target (−140 Mt CO₂e) and mitigates 1.4–1.6 MtCO₂ annually. We conclude that integrating peatlands as irreplaceable climate infrastructure into global policy is essential for achieving Paris Agreement goals and SDGs 13–15. Full article

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) plays a significant role in monitoring permafrost deformation. However, owing to environmental constraints in permafrost regions, some regions exhibit temporal incoherence, which results in deformation with fewer measurement points and difficulties with deformation automatic detection. In this study, a full-coverage deformation rate map of the 10 km buffer of the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) was generated by combining nine driving factors and the deformation rate of the 5 km buffer along the QTEC based on three machine learning methods. The importance of the factors contributing to ground deformation was explored. The experimental results show that support vector regression (SVR) yielded the best performance (R2 = 0.98, RMSE = 0.76 mm/year, MAE = 0.74 mm/year). The 10 km buffer of deformation data obtained not only preserved the original deformation data well, but it also filled the blank areas in the deformation map. Subsequently, we trained the Faster R-CNN model on the deformation rate map simulated by SVR and used it for the automatic detection of permafrost thaw settlement areas. The results showed that the Faster R-CNN could identify the permafrost thawing slump quickly and accurately. More than 300 deformation areas along the QTEC were detected through our proposed method, with some of these areas located near thaw slump and thermokarst lake regions. This study confirms the significant potential of combining InSAR and deep learning techniques for permafrost degradation monitoring applications. Full article

Analyses of thermokarst hazard risk are becoming increasingly crucial in the context of global warming. A significant aspect of thermokarst research is the mapping of landscapes based on their vulnerability to thermokarst processes. The exponential growth of remote sensing data and the advent of novel techniques have paved the way for the creation of sophisticated techniques for the study of natural disasters, including thermokarst phenomena. This study applies machine learning techniques to assess the vulnerability of tundra landscapes to thermokarst by integrating supervised classification using random forest with morphometric analysis based on the Topography Position Index. We recognized that the thermokarst landscape with the greatest potential for future permafrost thawing occupies 20% of the study region. The thermokarst-affected terrains and water bodies located in the undegraded uplands account for 13% of the total area, while those in depressions and valleys account for 44%. A small part (6%) of the study region represents areas with stable terrains within depressions and valleys that underwent topographic alterations and are likely to maintain stability in the future. This approach enables big geodata-driven predictive modeling of permafrost hazards, improving thermokarst risk assessment. It highlights machine learning and Google Earth Engine’s potential for forecasting landscape transformations in vulnerable Arctic regions. Full article

The degradation of subarctic peatland ecosystems under climate change impacts surrounding landscapes, carbon balance, and biogeochemical cycles. To assess these ecosystems’ responses to climate change, it is essential to consider not only the active-layer thickness but also its thermo-hydraulic conditions. Ground-penetrating radar is one of the leading methods for studying the active layer, and this paper proposes systematically investigating its potential to determine the thermal properties of the active layer. Collected experimental data confirm temperature hysteresis in peat linked to changes in water and ice content, which GPR may detect. Using palsa mires of the Kola Peninsula (NW Russia) as a case study, we analyze relationships between peat parameters in the active layer and search for thermal gradient responses in GPR signal attributes. The results reveal that frequency-dependent GPR attributes can delineate thermal intervals of ±1 °C through disperse waveguides. However, further verification is needed to clarify the conditions under which GPR can reliably detect temperature variations in peat, considering factors such as moisture content and peat structure. In conclusion, our study discusses the potential of GPR for remotely monitoring freeze–thaw processes and moisture distribution in frozen peatlands and its role as a valuable tool for studying peat thermal properties in terms of permafrost stability prediction. Full article

Mountain watersheds play a crucial role in sustaining freshwater resources, yet they are highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we investigated the summer water temperature of 35 alpine springs in the highest part of the Retezat Mountains, Southern Carpathians, between 2020 and 2023. During the four-year monitoring period, water temperatures across all springs ranged from 1.2 °C to 10.5 °C. Springs emerging from rock glaciers had the lowest average temperature (2.37 °C), while those on cirque and valley floors were the warmest (6.20 °C), followed closely by springs from meadow-covered slopes (6.20 °C) and those from scree and talus slopes (4.70 °C). However, only four springs recorded summer temperatures below 2 °C, suggesting a direct interaction with ground ice. The majority of springs exhibited temperatures between 2 and 4 °C, exceeding conventional thresholds for permafrost presence. This challenges the applicability of traditional thermal indicators in marginal periglacial environments, where reduced ground ice content within rock glaciers and talus slopes can lead to spring water temperatures ranging from 2 °C to 4 °C during summer. Additionally, cold springs emerging from rock glaciers displayed minimal daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations, highlighting their thermal stability and decoupling from atmospheric conditions. These findings underscore the critical role of rock glaciers in maintaining alpine spring temperatures and acting as refugia for cold-adapted organisms. As climate change accelerates permafrost degradation, these ecosystems face increasing threats, with potential consequences for biodiversity and hydrological stability. This study emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring and expanded investigations into water chemistry and discharge dynamics to improve our understanding of high-altitude hydrological systems. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights for the sustainable management of water resources in Retezat National Park, advocating for conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology and biodiversity. Full article

Influenced by a warm and humid climate, the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is undergoing significant degradation, leading to the occurrence of extensive thermokarst landforms. Among the most typical landforms in permafrost areas is thaw slump. This study, based on three periods of data from keyhole images of 1968–1970, the fractional images of 2006–2009 and the Gaofen (GF) images of 2018–2019, combined with field surveys for validation, investigates the distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal variation trends of thaw slumps in the Hoh Xil area and evaluates the susceptibility to thaw slumping in this area. The results from 1968 to 2019 indicate a threefold increase in the number and a twofold increase in total area of thaw slumps. Approximately 70% of the thaw slumps had areas less than 2 × 10⁴ m². When divided into a grid of 3 km × 3 km, about 1.3% (128 grids) of the Hoh Xil region experienced thaw slumping from 1968 to 1970, while 4.4% (420 grids) showed such occurrences from 2018 to 2019. According to the simulation results obtained using the informativeness method, the area classified as very highly susceptible to thaw slumping covers approximately 26% of the Hoh Xil area, while the highly susceptible area covers about 36%. In the Hoh Xil, 61% of the thaw slump areas had an annual warming rate ranging from 0.18 to 0.25 °C/10a, with 70% of the thaw slump areas experiencing a precipitation increase rate exceeding 12 mm/10a. Future assessments of thaw slump development suggest a possible minimum of 41 and a maximum of 405 thaw slumps occurrences annually in the Hoh Xil region. Under rapidly changing climatic conditions, apart from environmental risks, there also exist substantial potential risks associated with thaw slumping, such as the triggering of large-scale landslides and debris flows. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct simulated assessments of thaw slumping throughout the entire plateau to address regional risks in the future. Full article

Climate warming is accelerating the degradation of permafrost, particularly in mid- to low-latitude regions, resulting in the widespread formation of thermokarst landscapes, including retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs). These landforms, which are predominantly formed by the thawing of ice-rich permafrost, have been shown to impact topography, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. However, spatiotemporal changes in RTS distribution and development in mid- to low-latitude permafrost regions are not well understood. This study investigates RTS spatiotemporal dynamics in the Heshenling area of the western Qilian Mountains using multi-temporal PlanetScope and Google Earth imagery, along with Sentinel-1 InSAR data acquired from 2014 to 2023. The results reveal 20 RTSs, averaging 3.7 ha in area, primarily distributed on slopes of 7–23° and at elevations of 3455–3651 m a.s.l. The deformation rates of RTSs ranged from −54 to 27 mm/year. Three developmental stages—active, stable, and mature—were identified through analysis of surface deformation and geometric variations. Active RTSs exhibited accelerated headscarp retreat and debris tongue expansion, with some slumps expanding by up to 35%. This study highlights high temperatures and rainfall as potential factors contributing to the accelerated development of RTS in arid alpine environments, and suggests that RTS activity is likely to accelerate with continued climate change. Full article

Accurately understanding flood evolution and its attribution is crucial for watershed water resource management as well as disaster prevention and mitigation. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) has experienced several severe floods over the past few decades, but the driving factor influencing flood volume variation in the SRYR remains unclear. In this study, the Budyko framework was used to quantify the effects of climate change, vegetation growth, and permafrost degradation on flood volume variation in six basins of the SRYR. The results showed that the flood volume decreased before 2000 and increased after 2000, but the average value after 2000 remained lower than that before 2000. Flood volume is most sensitive to changes in precipitation, followed by changes in landscape in all basins. The decrease in flood volume was primarily influenced by changes in active layer thickness in permafrost-dominated basins, while it was mainly controlled by other landscape changes in non-permafrost-dominated basins. Meanwhile, the contributions of changes in potential evapotranspiration and water storage changes to the reduced flood volume were negative in all basins. Furthermore, the impact of vegetation growth on flood volume variation cannot be neglected due to its regulating role in the hydrological cycle. These findings can provide new insights into the evolution mechanism of floods in cryospheric basins and contribute to the development of strategies for flood control, disaster mitigation, and water resource management under a changing climate. Full article

Ground temperature conditions are key factors affecting the stability of cast-in-place pile foundations for transmission towers in permafrost regions. With global climate warming, the ground temperature environment in permafrost regions has undergone significant changes, leading to an increasing risk of disasters for these pile foundations. However, research on the prevention and control of pile foundation diseases caused by permafrost degradation is relatively limited, and engineering practices are insufficient. To address this, this study proposes embedding a two-phase closed thermosyphon (TPCT) inside a concrete pile foundation to create a composite structural system with both load-bearing and cooling functions. A mathematical model is developed to focus on the cooling performance and temperature control efficiency of the composite structure. The results indicate that: (1) The TPCT can alleviate, to some extent, the downward shift of the permafrost table around the transmission tower foundation due to climate warming. The cooling effect of the TPCT slows the rate of permafrost degradation, but its control effect on the permafrost table is limited. (2) The performance of the cast-in-place piles with an embedded TPCT is closely related to temperature, with an effective operational period from early October to late March each year. (3) This device effectively mitigates the impact of permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly lowering the risk of foundation-related issues in transmission towers. The findings of this study are crucial for maintaining ground temperature stability in cast-in-place pile foundations for transmission projects in high-latitude permafrost areas, as well as enhancing the theoretical framework for pile foundation design. Full article

As the climate continues to warm, the thawing of ice-rich permafrost leads to changes in the polygonal patterned ground (PPG) landscape, exhibiting an array of spatial heterogeneity in trough patterns, governing permafrost stability and hydrological and ecosystem dynamics. Developing accurate methods for detecting trough areas will allow us to better understand where the degradation of PPG occurs. The Geomorphon approach is proven to be a computationally efficient method that utilizes digital elevation models (DEMs) for terrain classification across multiple scales. In this study, we firstly evaluate the appliance of the Geomorphon algorithm in trough mapping in Prudhoe Bay (PB) in Alaska and the Wudaoliang region (WDL) on the central Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. We used the optimized DEM resolution, flatness threshold (t), and search radius (L) as input parameters for Geomorphon. The accuracy of trough recognition was evaluated against that of hand-digitized troughs and field measurements, using the mean intersection over union (mIOU) and the F1 Score. By setting a classification threshold, the troughs were detected where the Geomorphon values were larger than 6. The results show that (i) the lowest t value (0°) captured the microtopograhy of the troughs, while the larger L values paired with a DEM resolution of 50 cm diminished the impact of minor noise, improving the accuracy of trough detection; (ii) the optimized Geomorphon model produced trough maps with a high accuracy, achieving mIOU and F1 Scores of 0.89 and 0.90 in PB and 0.84 and 0.87 in WDL, respectively; and (iii) compared with the polygonal boundaries, the trough maps can derive the heterogeneous features to quantify the degradation of PPG. By comparing with the traditional terrain indices for trough classification, Geomorphon provides a direct classification of troughs, thus advancing the scientific reproducibility of comparisons in PB and WDL. This work provides a valuable method that may propel future pan-Arctic studies of trough mapping. Full article

The Sanjiangyuan region, known as the “Chinese Water Tower”, serves as a crucial ecological zone that is highly sensitive to climate change. In recent years, rising temperatures and increased precipitation have led to permafrost melt and frequent occurrences of thermokarst landslides, exacerbating soil erosion issues. Although studies have explored the impact of freeze–thaw action (FTA) on soil properties, research on this phenomenon within the unique geomorphological unit of thermokarst landslides, formed from degrading permafrost, remains sparse. This study, set against the backdrop of temperature-induced soil landslides, combines field investigations and controlled laboratory experiments on typical thermokarst landslide bodies within the permafrost region of Sanjiangyuan to systematically investigate the effects of FTA on the properties of soils within thermokarst landslides. Furthermore, this study employs the EPIC model to establish an empirical formula for the soil erodibility (SE) factor before and after freeze–thaw cycles (FTCs). The results indicate that: (1) FTCs significantly alter soil particle composition, reducing the content of clay particles in the surface soil while increasing the content of sand particles and the median particle size, thus compromising soil structure and enhancing erodibility. (2) FTA initially significantly increases soil organic matter content (OMC); however, as the number of FTCs increases, the magnitude of these changes diminishes. The initial moisture content of the soil significantly influences the effects of FTA, with more pronounced changes in particle composition and OMC in soils with higher moisture content. (3) With an increasing number of FTCs, the SE K-value first significantly increases and then tends to stabilize, showing significant differences across the cycles (1 to 15) (p < 0.05). This study reveals that FTCs, by altering the physicochemical properties of the soil, significantly increase SE, providing a scientific basis for soil erosion control and ecological environmental protection in the Sanjiangyuan area. Full article

To control settlement deformation in permafrost regions, new piles are constructed for remediation. However, the construction of new piles inevitably causes thermal disturbance to the existing pile foundations. A three-dimensional quarter-model of a rectangularly arranged pile group was established to analyze temperature field changes under construction time in odd-numbered months. In addition, a refreezing rate formula based on the effective freezing temperature was developed to examine the annual changes. The results indicate that the thermal disturbance from the new pile foundation construction gradually weakens over time but does not subside within a year, which significantly affects 75% of the existing pile length, and that the refreezing rate continues to increase after construction in November, i.e., the initial month of the cold season, and is maximized in approximately 60 days. This result suggests that November is the optimal time for such construction activities. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for pile engineering practices to mitigate issues caused by permafrost degradation. Full article

In the context of global climate change, understanding cryosphere degradation and its impact on water resources in alpine regions is crucial for sustainable development. This study investigates the relationship between permafrost degradation and runoff variations in the Source Region of the Yangtze River (SRYR), a critical water tower for sustainable water supply in Asia. We propose a novel method for assessing permafrost sensitivity, which establishes the correlation between cryosphere changes and hydrological responses, contributing to sustainable water resource management. Our research quantifies key uncertainties in runoff change attribution, providing essential data for sustainable decision making. Results show that changes in watershed characteristics account for up to 20% of runoff variation, with permafrost degradation (−0.02 sensitivity) demonstrating a greater influence than NDVI variations. The findings offer critical insights for the development of sustainable adaptation strategies, particularly in maintaining ecosystem services and ensuring long-term water security under changing climate conditions. This study offers a scientific basis for climate-resilient water management policies in high-altitude regions. Full article