Search Results (196)

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variations in salinity in the Jarahi River and its traditional channels using field measurements and numerical simulations. The primary objective is to assess the effectiveness of different management strategies for salinity reduction under minimum-discharge conditions. Salinity dynamics were analyzed through electrical conductivity (EC) measurements collected over a one-year period and simulated using the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model. Model performance was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed EC values at key monitoring stations. The results indicate that maximum salinity levels occur during March and April in both the main river and traditional channels, while the highest temporal variability in EC was observed in October. The comparison between observed and simulated data showed a relative error of less than 10%, confirming the reliability of the model simulations. Four management scenarios were evaluated: (1) preventing inflow from the Motbeg drainage, (2) blocking non-centralized drainage inputs, (3) removing all inlet drains, and (4) increasing discharge releases from the Ramshir Dam. The first and third scenarios led to the highest salinity reductions, reaching up to 39% (approximately 1266 µS/cm) in the Gorgor channel, while reductions of up to 53% were observed in traditional streams such as Mansuri and Omal-Sakher under the third scenario. Increasing dam releases resulted in a maximum reduction of 23% (724 µS/cm) at the Gorgor station. Finally, the proposed management strategies significantly reduced salinity levels along the river system, particularly at the entrance of the Jahangiri traditional stream, providing practical insights for salinity control and river basin management. Full article

Predicting dam inflow is critical for human life safety, water resource management, and hydroelectric power generation. While machine learning (ML) models address complex, nonlinear hydrological problems, quantum machine learning (QML) offers greater potential to overcome classical computational limits. This study compares a hybrid quantum neural network (HQNN) with the following two classical models: bidirectional CNN-LSTM and support vector regression (SVR). These models were evaluated to predict monthly inflow to the Mile Mughan Dam, a transboundary hydroelectric and irrigation dam located on the Aras River between Azerbaijan and Iran, using a 14-year dataset (2010–2023) under two scenarios. In total, 70% of data was used for training and 30% for testing. The first scenario encompassed meteorological variables plus three months of inflow lags, and the second included inflow lags only. Model performance was assessed using Coefficient of Determination (R²), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and graphical plots. HQNN showed superior performance across all metrics. In Scenario 1, HQNN achieved R² = 0.915, RMSE = 37.318 MCM, NSE = 0.908, MAPE = 8.343%; CNN-BiLSTM had R² = 0.867, RMSE = 46.506 MCM, NSE = 0.858, MAPE = 10.795%; SVR had R² = 0.846, RMSE = 52.372 MCM, NSE = 0.821, MAPE = 12.772%. In Scenario 2, HQNN maintained strong performance (R² = 0.855, RMSE = 48.56 MCM, NSE = 0.845, MAPE = 9.979%) and outperformed CNN-BiLSTM (R² = 0.810, RMSE = 56.126 MCM, NSE = 0.793, MAPE = 11.456%) and SVR (R² = 0.801, RMSE = 60.336 MCM, NSE = 0.761, MAPE = 12.901%). In Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, HQNN increased the prediction accuracy by 19.76% and 13.47%, respectively, compared to the CNN-BiLSTM model. These results confirm HQNN’s reliability in both multivariate and univariate modeling. Full article

According to statistics, between 1954 and 2021, China experienced 3558 dam failures in reservoirs, with flood overtopping accounting for 51.04% of these incidents. Once an earth-rock dam fails, it not only directly threatens the lives and property of surrounding residents and disrupts normal living order, but also damages infrastructure such as farmland, transportation, and power systems, resulting in enormous economic losses. To investigate the mechanisms of overtopping failure and breach evolution in homogeneous earthen embankments during flood seasons, this study conducted seven sets of laboratory model tests with the Changkai Embankment in Fuzhou City, Jiangxi Province, as a prototype. The tests considered various operational conditions, including different crest widths, embankment heights, channel water depths, and river flow velocities. The test results are as follows: Overtopping failure of earth embankments can be categorised into three distinct stages. The breach formation process can be categorised into three stages: vertical erosion (stage I), breach expansion (stage II) and breach stabilisation (stage III). River water levels and inflow rates were identified as pivotal factors influencing the final morphology of the breach and the flow velocity within it. Conversely, the height of the dike was found to have little influence on the shape of the breach and the flow velocity. The breach width ranges from 6 cm to 12 cm. An increase in water depth, corresponding to a greater difference in water levels on both sides of the river, has been observed to result in a deeper breach and faster widening rate. Elevated water levels have been shown to increase the potential energy of the water, which is subsequently converted into greater kinetic energy during breach formation. This, in turn, increases the flow velocity at the breach. However, a negative correlation has been observed between inflow velocity and flow at the breach. This paper combines the material properties of the embankment to discuss the overtopping failure mechanism and the breach evolution law of homogeneous earth embankments. This provides a basis for preventing and controlling embankment failure disasters. Full article

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards, causing widespread damage to lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable river basins. The Cagayan River Basin (CRB), the largest and most flood-prone basin in the Philippines, remains a significant challenge for disaster risk management. This study developed an event-based hydrologic–hydraulic modeling framework by coupling HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff simulations with HEC-RAS 2D unsteady flow routing to produce validated flood hazard maps. Inputs included rainfall from 41 gauge stations and observed inflows from the Magat Dam, processed in HEC-DSS. Validation utilized 137 surveyed flood marks collected from post-flood surveys, community reports, government archives, and household RTK measurements, with a concentration in Tuguegarao City. The coupled model reproduced key hydrograph peaks with moderate accuracy (R² = 0.56, Bias = +0.32 m, RMSE = 1.61 m, MAE = 1.43 m), although NSE (−2.30) reflected the limits of daily rainfall inputs. Simulated hazard maps identified 767.97 km² of inundated area (approximately 2.77% of CRB), concentrated along the floodplain and at the Magat confluence. Unlike previous scenario-based or localized efforts, this study delivers the first basin-wide, event-validated flood hazard maps for the CRB using integrated depth and depth–velocity criteria. The resulting hazard layers provide a scientific basis for strengthening evacuation planning, guiding land-use and infrastructure decisions, and supporting long-term resilience strategies in one of the Philippines’ most flood-prone rivers. Full article

Effective reservoir operation demands a careful balance between flood risk mitigation, water supply reliability, and operational stability, particularly under evolving hydrological conditions. This study applies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) models—Deep Q-Network (DQN), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG)—to optimize reservoir operations at the Soyang River Dam, South Korea, using 30 years of daily hydrometeorological data (1993–2022). The DRL framework integrates observed and remotely sensed variables such as precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture to guide adaptive storage decisions. Discharge is computed via mass balance, preserving inflow while optimizing system responses. Performance is evaluated using cumulative reward, action stability, and counts of total capacity and flood control violations. PPO achieved the highest cumulative reward and the most stable actions but incurred six flood control violations; DQN recorded one flood control violation, reflecting larger buffers and strong flood control compliance; DDPG provided smooth, intermediate responses with one violation. No model exceeded the total storage capacity. Analyses show a consistent pattern: retain on the rise, moderate the crest, and release on the recession to keep Flood Risk (FR) < 0. During high-inflow days, DRL optimization outperformed observed operation by increasing storage buffers and typically reducing peak discharge, thereby mitigating flood risk. Full article

Reliable inflow forecasting represents a challenging and representative problem in long-horizon time series forecasting. Although long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) algorithms have shown strong performance in other domains, their applicability to hydrological inflow prediction has not yet been systematically assessed. Therefore, this study examined two LTSF linear models for inflow forecasting: NLinear and DLinear. LTSF models were trained with a 24 h input window and evaluated for 24 h lead times at eight major dams in South Korea. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were employed as a conventional AI model. LSTM consistently achieved the highest coefficient of determination (R²) and the lowest normalized root mean square error, DLinear minimized normalized mean square error, and NLinear delivered superior hydrological consistency as measured by Kling–Gupta efficiency. XGBoost showed comparatively larger variability across sites. Spatial heterogeneity was evident; sites were grouped into high-performing, transition, and vulnerable groups. Peak-flow analysis revealed amplitude attenuation and phase lag at longer horizons. Full article

Reservoir operation serves as a critical non-structural measure for real-time flood management, aimed to minimize downstream flood damage while ensuring dam safety. This study develops and evaluates a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)-based reservoir operation model with data integration (DI) to enhance flood management capabilities. Optimal reservoir outflows are first determined for historical flood events using the Interior Point Optimizer (IPOPT), a deterministic optimization model designed to minimize peak outflows. The optimized hydrographs are compared with observed outflows to assess the benefits of improved operational strategies. GRU models are then trained and validated using inflow hydrographs and resulting optimal reservoir storage and release data. Various input configurations are tested, incorporating DI of lagged observations and forecasted values to evaluate their influence on model accuracy. The study also examines multiple hyperparameter settings to identify the optimal configuration. The methodology is applied to the Namgang Dam in South Korea, simulating hourly operations during flood events. Results indicate that historical reservoir inflow and storage are the most influential inputs, while adding precipitation (historical or forecasted) and/or forecasted inflows does not improve model performance. The GRU model with DI successfully replicates optimized reservoir operations, demonstrating its reliability and efficiency in flood management. This framework supports timely and informed decision-making and offers a promising approach for enhancing flood risk mitigation through improved reservoir operations. Full article

In semi-arid regions, flood events are often characterized by rapid runoff and high hydrological variability, posing significant challenges for infrastructure safety and flood risk assessment. Traditional flood frequency analysis methods, typically based on univariate models using annual flood peak, may fail to capture the full complexity of such events. This study investigates the limitations of the univariate approach through the analysis of the 2004 flood event in the Jaguaribe River basin (Brazil), which caused the Castanhão Reservoir to receive a discharge of more than 5 hm³ and fill from 4.5% to over 70% of its capacity in just 55 days. Although the peak discharge in 2004 was not an exceptional record, the combination of high flood volume and short duration revealed a much rarer event than suggested by peak flow alone. To improve compound flood risk assessment, a bivariate frequency analysis based on copula functions was applied to jointly model flood peak and average flood intensity. The latter is a variable newly proposed in this study to better capture the short-duration but high-volume flood until peak that can strongly influence dam safety. Specifically, for the 2004 event, the univariate return period of flood peak was only 35 years, whereas the joint return period incorporating both peak flow and average flood intensity reached 995 years—underscoring a potential underestimation of flood hazard when relying solely on peak flow metrics. Our bivariate return periods and the average flood intensity metric provide actionable information for climate adaptation, supporting adaptive rule curves and risk screening during initial impoundment and high-inflow events in semi-arid reservoirs. Collectively, the proposed methodology offers a more robust framework for assessing extreme floods in intermittent river systems and offers practical insights for dam safety planning in climatically variable regions such as the Brazilian Semi-Arid. Full article

Hydrothermal conditions are a key indicator influencing the evolution of aquatic ecosystems, closely affecting the physical, chemical, and biological properties of water bodies. The construction of cascaded dams on the main stem of the Yangtze River has altered the natural water temperature regime, impacting the hydrothermal status of the water. Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data from Google Earth Engine to invert river surface water temperatures, a parameter-optimized CNN-LSTM-Attention hybrid interpretable water temperature prediction model was constructed. The model demonstrated credible accuracy. Based on the inversion results, the study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water temperature in the main stem of the Yangtze River before and after cascaded dam construction in the lower Jinsha River region and the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The results found that after the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, the annual average water temperature increased significantly by 0.813 °C. The “cold water stagnation effect” induced by cascaded development caused the water temperature amplitude to increase from 8.96 °C to 10.6 °C. Furthermore, the regulating effect of tributary confluence exhibited significant differences. For instance, colder tributaries like the Yalong River reduced the main stem water temperature, while warmer tributaries like the Jialing River, conversely, increased the main stem temperature. The construction of cascaded dams led to distinct variation characteristics in the areas downstream of the dams within the reservoir regions, where tributary inflows caused corresponding changes in the main stem water temperature. This study elucidates the long-term spatiotemporal variation characteristics of water temperature in the main stem of the Yangtze River. The model prediction results can assist in constructing an early warning indicator system for water temperature changes, providing reliable data support for promoting water environment sustainability and ecological civilization construction in the river basin. Full article

Seasonal design floods and operational water levels are critical for high-efficient water resource utilization. In this study, statistical and rational analyses methods were applied to divide the flood season based on seasonal rainfall patterns. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen analysis were used to detect trend changes in the observed flow series. Both stationary and nonstationary flood frequency analysis methods were conducted to estimate seasonal design floods. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in the Yangtze River, China, was selected as the case study. Results show that the TGR flood season could be divided into four periods: the reservoir drawdown period (1 May–20 June), the Meiyu flood period (21 June–31 July), the transition period (1 August–10 September), and the Autumn Rain refill period (11 September–31 October). Trend analyses indicate that the flow series at the TGR dam site exhibited a decreasing trend in recent decades. Upstream reservoir regulation has significantly reduced inflow discharges of TGR, and the nonstationary seasonal 1000-year design floods in the transition period are decreased by about 20%, and the flood control water level could rise from 145 m to 157 m, which can generate 2.288 billion kW h more hydropower (16.57% increase) while maintaining unchanged flood prevention standards. This study provides valuable insights into the TGR operational water level in the flood season and highlights the necessity of considering the regulation impact of upstream reservoirs for design floods and reservoir operational water levels. Full article

Hydrological prediction under climate change requires representative data selection and adaptable model architecture. This study proposes a two-part methodology to improve deep learning performance in hydrological prediction. The first component, the representative hydrograph extraction technique (RHET), identifies representative inflow patterns from historical records using dynamic time warping (DTW) and K-medoids clustering. Inflow data are segmented by year, annual DTW distances are calculated, and central events are selected. Representative hydrographs serve as training input. The second component is the auto-setting artificial neural network (AS-ANN). The AS-ANN automatically determines its structural parameters by performing pre-training to evaluate performance across different configurations. The proposed approach was applied to the Daecheong Dam basin in South Korea and compared against an artificial neural network (ANN). Results show that the proposed model reduced the minimum root mean squared error (Min RMSE) by approximately 267.51 m³/day in the validation results and by approximately 53.04 m³/day in the prediction results compared to the ANN. Furthermore, the proposed model reduced the root mean square error by 57.28% and improved peak inflow prediction accuracy by 54.00%. The proposed RHET-based AS-ANN is expected to show good performance in learning and predicting hydrological data, including the data used in this study, by replacing existing ANNs. Full article

The uMlazi River receives effluents from wastewater work before feeding the Shongweni Dam. However, local communities are consuming fish from this dam for protein supplements. This study was undertaken to investigate the metal concentrations in the water and sediment, the general health of Coptodon rendalli and Oreochromis mossambicus, and metal bioaccumulation. Sampling was conducted during the dry (July–August) and wet seasons (November and December) in 2021. Water was sampled using acid-pre-treated sampling bottles, whereas sediment was collected using the Van Veen grab at the inflow, middle, and dam wall. Fish were collected, and their tissues were digested using aqua regia. Metal concentrations were measured using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). This data manuscript reports the physical parameters of the water and concentrations of antimony, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, selenium, and strontium in the water and sediment from the Shongweni Dam. Moreover, the fish morphometric data and metal concentrations observed in the muscle are also presented. This data could be used as baseline information on metal concentrations in the Shongweni Dam. Moreover, it provides insight into the potential impact of wastewater effluents on metal increases in freshwater bodies. Full article

This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario were used to assess the uncertainties across these models. The findings indicate that RWU in Republic of Korea (ROK) is closely linked to temperature changes, with significant increases projected in the distant future (F3), especially during summer. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, RWU is expected to increase by up to 10.3% by the late 21st century (2081–2100) compared to the historical baseline. The model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11,400 m³/month, demonstrating reliable predictive performance. Unlike conventional deep learning models, the BNN provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty bounds, enhancing its suitability for climate-sensitive resource planning. This study also projects inflows to the Paldang Dam, revealing an overall increase in future water availability. However, winter water security may decline due to decreased inflow and minimal changes in RWU. This study suggests enhancing summer precipitation storage while considering downstream flood risks. Demand management strategies are recommended for addressing future winter water security challenges. This research highlights the importance of projecting RWU under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for strategic water resource management in ROK. Full article

Rainfall–runoff processes and flood propagation were quantified to clarify floodwater dynamics in the upper Tenryu River basin. The basin is characterized by contrasting runoff behaviors between its left- and right-bank subbasins and large upstream river storage created by gorge topography. Radar rainfall and dam inflow data were analyzed to determine the runoff characteristics, on which the rainfall–runoff simulation was based. A higher storage capacity was observed in the left-bank subbasins, while an exceptionally large specific discharge was observed in one of the right-bank subbasins after several hours of intense rainfall. Based on these findings, the basin-scale storage was quantitatively evaluated. Water level peaks in the main channel appeared earlier at downstream locations, indicating that tributary inflows strongly affect the flood peak timing. A two-dimensional unsteady model successfully reproduced this behavior and captured the delay in the flood wave speed due to the complex morphology of the Tenryu River. The average α value, representing the ratio of flood wave speed to flow velocity, was 1.38 over the 70 km study reach. This analysis enabled quantification of river channel storage and clarified its relative relationship to basin storage, showing that river channel storage is approximately 12% of basin storage. Full article

The construction of a dam significantly alters downstream flow characteristics, often analyzed through changes in flow–duration curves before and after construction. Typically, post-dam flow–duration curves exhibit increased probabilities in low-flow zones and decreased probabilities in high-flow zones, primarily influenced by reservoir operation methods (ROMs). This study introduces a Bayesian framework to replace ROM simulations for predicting downstream flow–duration curve changes after dam construction, mainly during the flood season. Within this framework, inflow data are treated as random variables, and the ROM is analogized to a likelihood function in Bayesian analysis. The key challenge lies in deriving a likelihood function that mimics the given ROM. The Rigid ROM, a hybrid of constant rate and constant magnitude ROMs commonly used in the Republic of Korea, is targeted in this study. Using hourly inflow data from the Republic of Korea’s Andong Dam (2010–2019), the proposed Bayesian method produces flow–duration curves closely matching simulation-based results, validating its accuracy. Furthermore, the method’s ability to seamlessly handle multi-dam systems in a series highlights its practical advantage, attributed to the iterative nature of Bayesian updates. This study underscores the Bayesian approach’s potential for efficient and robust flow–duration curve modeling in complex hydrological systems. Full article