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Extreme Hydrological Events Under Climate Change

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 January 2026 | Viewed by 1638

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania
Interests: climate change’s impact on water bodies; anthropogenic impact on hydrological processes; hydrological extremes; thermal regime of water bodies

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania
Interests: river runoff modeling according to climate scenarios, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes; anthropogenic impact on water bodies; water balance; hydroenergy

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Global climate change is one of the most significant and pressing challenges facing modern society today. By altering precipitation patterns and increasing the instability of the hydrological cycle, climate change significantly affects river discharge dynamics, leading to more frequent and intense floods and droughts. The most comprehensive analysis of climate change, presented in the sixth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warns that further global warming will lead to increasingly frequent extreme events, the likes of which have never been recorded in history. There is a growing need to understand these extreme weather-induced hydrological phenomena and their potential impacts in order to reduce or mitigate the threats they pose.

This Special Issue will explore the broad topic of extreme hydrological events. We invite you to publish and share research that contributes to a better understanding of

  • River runoff responses to climate variability;
  • River flood processes;
  • Hydrological droughts;
  • The monitoring, modeling, and forecasting of extreme hydrological events in a changing environment;
  • The sustainable use of water resources;
  • Flood and drought risk management solutions, etc.

Dr. Diana Šarauskienė
Dr. Darius Jakimavičius
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • climate change
  • extreme hydrological phenomena
  • floods
  • droughts
  • hydrological variability
  • river runoff
  • hydrological cycle
  • water resources
  • mitigation strategies

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 3032 KB  
Article
A Bivariate Return Period Copula Application of Flood Peaks and Volumes for Climate Adaptation in Semi-Arid Regions
by T. M. C. Studart, J. D. Pontes Filho, G. R. Gomez, M. M. Portela and F. A. Sousa Filho
Water 2025, 17(20), 2963; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202963 - 15 Oct 2025
Viewed by 259
Abstract
In semi-arid regions, flood events are often characterized by rapid runoff and high hydrological variability, posing significant challenges for infrastructure safety and flood risk assessment. Traditional flood frequency analysis methods, typically based on univariate models using annual flood peak, may fail to capture [...] Read more.
In semi-arid regions, flood events are often characterized by rapid runoff and high hydrological variability, posing significant challenges for infrastructure safety and flood risk assessment. Traditional flood frequency analysis methods, typically based on univariate models using annual flood peak, may fail to capture the full complexity of such events. This study investigates the limitations of the univariate approach through the analysis of the 2004 flood event in the Jaguaribe River basin (Brazil), which caused the Castanhão Reservoir to receive a discharge of more than 5 hm3 and fill from 4.5% to over 70% of its capacity in just 55 days. Although the peak discharge in 2004 was not an exceptional record, the combination of high flood volume and short duration revealed a much rarer event than suggested by peak flow alone. To improve compound flood risk assessment, a bivariate frequency analysis based on copula functions was applied to jointly model flood peak and average flood intensity. The latter is a variable newly proposed in this study to better capture the short-duration but high-volume flood until peak that can strongly influence dam safety. Specifically, for the 2004 event, the univariate return period of flood peak was only 35 years, whereas the joint return period incorporating both peak flow and average flood intensity reached 995 years—underscoring a potential underestimation of flood hazard when relying solely on peak flow metrics. Our bivariate return periods and the average flood intensity metric provide actionable information for climate adaptation, supporting adaptive rule curves and risk screening during initial impoundment and high-inflow events in semi-arid reservoirs. Collectively, the proposed methodology offers a more robust framework for assessing extreme floods in intermittent river systems and offers practical insights for dam safety planning in climatically variable regions such as the Brazilian Semi-Arid. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Hydrological Events Under Climate Change)
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27 pages, 35092 KB  
Article
Shifts in River Flood Patterns in the Baltic States Between Two Climate Normals
by Darius Jakimavičius, Diana Šarauskienė, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, Elga Apsīte, Alvina Reihan, Līga Klints and Anna Põrh
Water 2025, 17(17), 2567; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17172567 - 30 Aug 2025
Viewed by 1212
Abstract
River spring and flash floods are highly dependent on variations in meteorological conditions. In the Baltic States, substantial changes in air temperature and precipitation have been observed between the two most recent climate normal periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). Therefore, changes in the magnitude [...] Read more.
River spring and flash floods are highly dependent on variations in meteorological conditions. In the Baltic States, substantial changes in air temperature and precipitation have been observed between the two most recent climate normal periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). Therefore, changes in the magnitude of spring and flash floods across different hydrological regions between these periods were analyzed to better understand shifting hydrological patterns. Daily flow data from 1961 to 2020 were obtained from 68 water gauging stations on 55 rivers. The Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, as well as Sen’s slope estimator, were applied to analyze the time series of flood maximum discharges. The most pronounced negative trends in spring and flash floods were observed in Lithuanian rivers, with the magnitude of these trends gradually weakening toward Latvia and Estonia. The maximum flood heights (hMAX) generally declined during 1961–2020, particularly in Lithuania and western Latvia. Spring flood data showed the most significant decrease, particularly during 1991–2020, when hMAX declined on average by 0.14 mm/year in Lithuania and 0.05 mm/year in Latvia. Flash floods exhibited smaller declines, also concentrated in 1991–2020. In the major rivers (Nemunas, Neris, and Daugava), peak discharges of both floods declined consistently throughout the study period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Hydrological Events Under Climate Change)
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