Search Results (55)

The sharp decline in streamflow prediction accuracy with increasing lead times remains a persistent challenge for effective water resources management and flood mitigation. In this study, we developed a coupled deep learning model for daily streamflow prediction in the Hanjiang River Basin, China. The proposed model integrates self-attention (SA), a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM). The model’s effectiveness was assessed during flood events, and its predictive uncertainty was quantified using kernel density estimation (KDE). The results demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms baseline models across all lead times. It achieved Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores of 0.92, 0.86, and 0.79 for 1-, 3-, and 5-days, respectively, showing particular strength at these extended lead time predictions. During major flood events, the model demonstrated an enhanced capacity to capture peak magnitudes and timings. It achieved the highest NSE values of 0.924, 0.862, and 0.797 for the 1-, 3-, and 5-day forecasting horizons, respectively, thereby showcasing the strengths of integrating CNN and SA mechanisms for recognizing local hydrological patterns. Furthermore, KDE-based uncertainty analysis identified a high prediction interval coverage in different forecast periods and a relatively narrow prediction interval width, indicating the strong robustness of the proposed model. Overall, the proposed SA-CNN-BiLSTM model demonstrates significantly improved accuracy, especially for extended lead times and flood events, and provides robust uncertainty quantification, thereby offering a more reliable tool for reservoir operation and flood risk management. Full article

Continuous use of agricultural chemicals and fertilizers, sporadic sewer overflow events, and an increase in urbanization have led to significant nutrient/pollutant loadings into the semi-arid Arroyo Colorado River basin, which is located in South Texas, U.S. Priority nutrients that require reduction include phosphorus and nitrogen and to mitigate issues of low dissolved oxygen, in some of its river segments. Consequently, the river’s potential to support aquatic life has been significantly reduced, thus highlighting the need for restoration. To achieve this restoration, a watershed protection plan was developed, comprising several preventive mitigation measures, including installing green infrastructure (GI) practices. However, for effective reduction of excessive nutrient loadings, there is a need to study the effects of different combinations of GI practices under current and future land use scenarios to guide decisions in implementing the cost-effective infrastructure while considering factors such as the existing drainage system, topography, land use, and streamflow. Therefore, this study coupled the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis Integration (SUSTAIN) model to determine the effects of different combinations of GI practices on the reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus under changing land use conditions in three selected Arroyo Colorado subwatersheds. Two land use maps from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Forecasting Scenarios of land use (FORE-SCE) model for 2050, namely, A1B and B1, were implemented in the coupled SWAT-SUSTAIN model in this study, where the urban area is projected to increase by 6% and 4%, respectively, with respect to the 2018 land use scenario. As expected, runoff, phosphorus, and nitrogen slightly increased with imperviousness. The modeling results showed that implementing either vegetated swales or wet ponds reduces flow and nutrients to meet the Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) targets, which cost about USD 1.5 million under current land use (2018). Under the 2050 future projected land use changes (A1B scenario), the cost-effective GI practice was implemented in vegetated swales at USD 1.5 million. In contrast, bioretention cells occupied the least land area to achieve the TMDL targets at USD 2 million. Under the B1 scenario of 2050 projected land use, porous pavements were most cost effective at USD 1.5 million to meet the TMDL requirements. This research emphasizes the need for collaboration between stakeholders at the watershed and farm levels to achieve TMDL targets. This study informs decision-makers, city planners, watershed managers, and other stakeholders involved in restoration efforts in the Arroyo Colorado basin. Full article

The transformative potential of deep learning models is felt in many research fields, including hydrology and water resources. This study investigates the effectiveness of the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), a deep neural network architecture for predicting daily streamflow in Portugal, and benchmarks it against the popular Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model. Additionally, it evaluates the performance of TFTs through selected forecasting examples. Information is provided about key input variables, including precipitation, temperature, and geomorphological characteristics. The study involved extensive hyperparameter tuning, with over 600 simulations conducted to fine–tune performances and ensure reliable predictions across diverse hydrological conditions. The results showed that TFTs outperformed the HBV model, successfully predicting streamflow in several catchments of distinct characteristics throughout the country. TFTs not only provide trustworthy predictions with associated probabilities of occurrence but also offer considerable advantages over classical forecasting frameworks, i.e., the ability to model complex temporal dependencies and interactions across different inputs or weight features based on their relevance to the target variable. Multiple practical applications can rely on streamflow predictions made with TFT models, such as flood risk management, water resources allocation, and support climate change adaptation measures. Full article

Recent studies have shown the potential of transformer-based neural networks in increasing prediction capacity. However, classical transformers present several problems such as computational time complexity and high memory requirements, which make Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting (LSTF) challenging. The contribution to the prediction of time series of flood events using deep learning techniques is examined, with a particular focus on evaluating the performance of the Informer model (a particular implementation of transformer architecture), which attempts to address the previous issues. The predictive capabilities of the Informer model are explored and compared to statistical methods, stochastic models and traditional deep neural networks. The accuracy, efficiency as well as the limits of the approaches are demonstrated via numerical benchmarks relating to real river streamflow applications. Using daily flow data from the River Test in England as the main case study, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of the Informer efficacy in capturing the complex temporal dependencies inherent in streamflow time series. The analysis is extended to encompass diverse time series datasets from various locations (>100) in the United Kingdom, providing insights into the generalizability of the Informer. The results highlight the superiority of the Informer model over established forecasting methods, especially regarding the LSTF problem. For a forecast horizon of 168 days, the Informer model achieves an NSE of 0.8 and maintains a MAPE below 10%, while the second-best model (LSTM) only achieves −0.63 and 25%, respectively. Furthermore, it is observed that the dependence structure of time series, as expressed by the climacogram, affects the performance of the Informer network. Full article

Reliable streamflow forecasting is crucial for several tasks related to water-resource management, including planning reservoir operations, power generation via Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPPs), and flood mitigation, thus resulting in relevant social implications. The present study is focused on the application of Automated Machine-Learning (AutoML) models to forecast daily streamflow in the area of the upper Teles Pires River basin, located in the region of the Amazon biomes. The latter area is characterized by extensive water-resource utilization, mostly for power generation through HPPs, and it has a limited hydrological data-monitoring network. Five different AutoML models were employed to forecast the streamflow daily, i.e., auto-sklearn, Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT), H2O AutoML, AutoKeras, and MLBox. The AutoML input features were set as the time-lagged streamflow and average rainfall data sourced from four rain gauge stations and one streamflow gauge station. To overcome the lack of training data, in addition to the previous features, products estimated via remote sensing were leveraged as training data, including PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN-CDR, and PDIR-Now. The selected AutoML models proved their effectiveness in forecasting the streamflow in the considered basin. In particular, the reliability of streamflow predictions was high both in the case when training data came from rain and streamflow gauge stations and when training data were collected by the four previously mentioned estimated remote-sensing products. Moreover, the selected AutoML models showed promising results in forecasting the streamflow up to a three-day horizon, relying on the two available kinds of input features. As a final result, the present research underscores the potential of employing AutoML models for reliable streamflow forecasting, which can significantly advance water-resource planning and management within the studied geographical area. Full article

This study utilizes the Simulator of Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD) model and the China Meteorological Forces Dataset (CMFD) to investigate the hydrological dynamics of the Buha River watershed, a critical tributary of Qinghai Lake, from 1979 to 2018. By integrating high-resolution terrestrial and meteorological data, the SHUD model simulates streamflow variations and other hydrological characteristics, providing valuable insights into the region’s water balance and runoff processes. Key findings reveal a consistent upward trend in precipitation and temperature over the past four decades, despite minor deviations in daily precipitation intensity and relative humidity data. The SHUD model demonstrates high accuracy on a monthly scale, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.72 for the calibration phase and 0.61 for the validation phase. The corresponding Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values are 0.73 and 0.49, respectively, underscoring the model’s applicability for hydrological forecasting and water resource management. Notably, the annual runoff ratios for the Buha River fluctuate annually between 0.11 and 0.21, with significant changes around 2007 correlating with a shift in Qinghai Lake’s water levels. The analysis of water balance indicates a net leakage over long-term periods, with spatial alterations in leakage and replenishment along the river. Furthermore, snow accumulation, which increases with altitude, significantly contributes to streamflow during the melting season. Despite the Buha River basin’s importance, research on its hydrology remains limited due to data scarcity and minimal human activity. This study enhances the understanding of the Buha River’s hydrological processes and highlights the necessity for improved dataset accuracy and model parameter optimization in future research. Full article

Considering the increased risk of urban flooding and drought due to global climate change and rapid urbanization, the imperative for more accurate methods for streamflow forecasting has intensified. This study introduces a pioneering approach leveraging the available network of real-time monitoring stations and advanced machine learning algorithms that can accurately simulate spatial–temporal problems. The Spatio-Temporal Attention Gated Recurrent Unit (STA-GRU) model is renowned for its computational efficacy in forecasting streamflow events with a forecast horizon of 7 days. The novel integration of the groundwater level, precipitation, and river discharge as predictive variables offers a holistic view of the hydrological cycle, enhancing the model’s accuracy. Our findings reveal that for a 7-day forecasting period, the STA-GRU model demonstrates superior performance, with a notable improvement in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values and R-square ($R^2$) alongside reductions in the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics, underscoring the model’s generalizability and reliability. Comparative analysis with seven conventional deep learning models, including the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), the Convolutional Neural Network LSTM (CNNLSTM), the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), the Spatio-Temporal Attention LSTM (STA-LSTM), the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), the Convolutional Neural Network GRU (CNNGRU), and the STA-GRU, confirms the superior predictive power of the STA-LSTM and STA-GRU models when faced with long-term prediction. This research marks a significant shift towards an integrated network of real-time monitoring stations with advanced deep-learning algorithms for streamflow forecasting, emphasizing the importance of spatially and temporally encompassing streamflow variability within an urban watershed’s stream network. Full article

Hydrological droughts may be referred to as sustained and regionally extensive water shortages as reflected in streamflows that are noticeable and gauged worldwide. Hydrological droughts are largely analyzed using the truncation level approach to represent the desired flow condition such as the median, mean, or any other flow quantile of an annual, monthly, or weekly flow sequence. The quantification of hydrologic droughts is accomplished through indices, such as the standardized streamflow index (SSI) in tandem with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) commonly used in meteorological droughts. The runs of deficits in the SSI sequence below the truncation level are treated as drought episodes, and thus, the theory of runs forms an essential tool for analysis. The parameters of significance from the modeling perspective of hydrological droughts (or tantamount to streamflow droughts in this paper) are the longest duration and the largest magnitude over a desired return period of T-year (or month or week) of the streamflow sequences. It is to be stressed that the magnitude component of the hydrological drought is of paramount importance for the design and operation of water resource storage systems such as reservoirs. The time scales chosen for the hydrologic drought analysis range from daily to annual, but for most applications, a monthly scale is deemed appropriate. For modeling the aforesaid parameters, several methodologies are in vogue, i.e., the empirical fitting of the historical drought sequences through a known probability density function (pdf), extreme number theorem, Markov chain analysis, log-linear, copulas, entropy-based analyses, and machine learning (ML)-based methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), wavelet transform (WT), support vector machines (SVM), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), and hybrid methods involving entropy, copulas, and machine learning-based methods. The forecasting of the hydrologic drought is rigorously conducted through machine learning-based methodologies. However, the traditional stochastic methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), copulas, and entropy-based methods are still popular. New techniques for flow simulation are based on copula and entropy-based concepts and machine learning methodologies such as ANN, WT, SVM, etc. The simulated flows could be used for deriving drought parameters in consonance with traditional Monte Carlo methods of data generation. Efforts are underway to use hydrologic drought models for reservoir sizing across rivers. The ML methods whilst combined in the hybrid form hold promise in drought forecasting for better management of existing water resources during the drought periods. Data mining and pre-processing techniques are expected to play a significant role in hydrologic drought modeling and forecasting in future. Full article

Flood modeling and forecasting are crucial for managing and preparing for extreme flood events, such as those in the Tropical Andes. In this context, assimilating streamflow data is essential. Data Assimilation (DA) seeks to combine errors between forecasting models and discharge measurements through the updating of model states. This study aims to assess the applicability and performance of streamflow DA in a sub-daily forecasting system of the Peruvian Tropical Andes using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) algorithms. The study was conducted in a data-sparse Andean basin during the period February–March 2022. For this purpose, the lumped GR4H rainfall–runoff model was run forward with 100 ensemble members in four different DA experiments based on IMERG-E and GSMaP-NRT precipitation sources and assimilated real-time hourly discharges at the basin outlet. Ensemble modeling with EnKF and PF displayed that perturbation introduced by GSMaP-NRT’-driven experiments reduced the model uncertainties more than IMERG-E’ ones, and the reduction in high-flow subestimation was more notable for the GSMaP-NRT’+EnKF configuration. The ensemble forecasting framework from 1 to 24 h proposed here showed that the updating of model states using DA techniques improved the accuracy of streamflow prediction at least during the first 6–8 h on average, especially for the GSMaP-NRT’+EnKF scheme. Finally, this study benchmarks the application of streamflow DA in data-sparse basins in the Tropical Andes and will support the development of more accurate climate services in Peru. Full article

The Schuylkill River Watershed in southeastern PA provides essential ecosystem services, including drinking water, power generation, recreation, transportation, irrigation, and habitats for aquatic life. The impact of changing climate and land use on these resources could negatively affect the ability of the watershed to continually provide these services. This study applies a hydrologic model to assess the impact of climate and land use change on water resources in the Schuylkill River Basin. A hydrologic model was created within the Structural Thinking Experiential Learning Laboratory with Animation (STELLA) modeling environment. Downscaled future climate change scenarios were generated using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) from 2020 to 2040 for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Three regional land use change scenarios were developed based on historical land use and land cover change trends. The calibrated model was then run under projected climate and land use scenarios to simulate daily streamflow, reservoir water levels, and investigate the availability of water resources in the basin. Historically, the streamflow objective for the Schuylkill was met 89.8% of the time. However, the model forecasts that this will drop to 67.2–76.9% of the time, depending on the climate models used. Streamflow forecasts varied little with changes in land use. The two greenhouse gas emission scenarios considered (high and medium emissions) also produced similar predictions for the frequency with which the streamflow target is met. Barring substantial changes in global greenhouse gas emissions, the region should prepare for substantially greater frequency of low flow conditions in the Schuylkill River. Full article

On the Korean Peninsula, the Imjin River is a transboundary river that flows from North Korea into South Korea. Therefore, human intervention activities in the upstream region can have a substantial impact on the downstream region of South Korea. In addition to climate impacts, there are increasing concerns regarding upstream man-made activities, particularly the operation of the Hwanggang dam located in the territory of North Korea. This study explored the feasibility of using the publicly available global hydrological model and satellite remote sensing imagery for monitoring reservoir dynamics and assessing their impacts on downstream hydrology. “Naturalized” streamflow simulation was obtained from the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) Global Water Sustainability (GEOGloWS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Streamflow Services (GESS) model. To correct the biases of the GESS-based streamflow simulations, we employed quantile mapping using the observed streamflow from a nearby location. This method significantly reduced volume and variability biases by up to 5 times on both daily and monthly scales. Nevertheless, its effectiveness in improving temporal correlation on a daily scale in small catchments remained constrained. For the reservoir storage changes in the Hwanggang dam, we combined multiple remote sensing imagery, particularly cloud-free optical images of Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and snow-free Sentinel-1, with the area–elevation–volume (AEV) curves derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). In assessing its hydrological impacts, the study found that overall impacts within the downstream catchment in Pilseung bridge of South Korea were generally less significant compared to the upstream Hwanggang catchment. However, there was a higher probability of experiencing water shortages during wet months due to the upstream dam’s operations. The study highlights the potential benefits of utilizing the publicly available hydrological model and satellite remote sensing imagery to supplement decision makers with important information for the effective management of the transboundary river basin in ungauged regions. Full article

Due to the scarcity of observational data and the intricate precipitation–runoff relationship, individually applying physically based hydrological models and machine learning (ML) techniques presents challenges in accurately predicting floods within data-scarce glacial river basins. To address this challenge, this study introduces an innovative hybrid model that synergistically harnesses the strengths of multi-source remote sensing data, a physically based hydrological model (i.e., Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY)), and ML techniques. This novel approach employs MODIS snow cover data and remote sensing-derived glacier mass balance data to calibrate the SPHY model. The SPHY model primarily generates baseflow, rain runoff, snowmelt runoff, and glacier melt runoff. These outputs are then utilized as extra inputs for the ML models, which consist of Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GDBT), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep Neural Network (DNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Transformer (TF). These ML models reconstruct the intricate relationship between inputs and streamflow. The performance of these six hybrid models and SPHY model is comprehensively explored in the Manas River basin in Central Asia. The findings underscore that the SPHY-RF model performs better in simulating and predicting daily streamflow and flood events than the SPHY model and the other five hybrid models. Compared to the SPHY model, SPHY-RF significantly reduces RMSE (55.6%) and PBIAS (62.5%) for streamflow, as well as reduces RMSE (65.8%) and PBIAS (73.51%) for floods. By utilizing bootstrap sampling, the 95% uncertainty interval for SPHY-RF is established, effectively covering 87.65% of flood events. Significantly, the SPHY-RF model substantially improves the simulation of streamflow and flood events that the SPHY model struggles to capture, indicating its potential to enhance the accuracy of flood prediction within data-scarce glacial river basins. This study offers a framework for robust flood simulation and forecasting within glacial river basins, offering opportunities to explore extreme hydrological events in a warming climate. Full article

The impact of climate change continues to manifest itself daily in the form of extreme events and conditions such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms. Better forecasting tools are mandatory to calibrate our response to these hazards and help adapt to the planet’s dynamic environment. Here, we present a deep convolutional residual regressive neural network (dcrrnn) platform called Flux to Flow (F2F) for discerning the response of watersheds to water-cycle fluxes and their extremes. We examine four United States drainage basins of varying acreage from smaller to very large (Bear, Colorado, Connecticut, and Mississippi). F2F combines model and ground observations of water-cycle fluxes in the form of surface runoff, subsurface baseflow, and gauged streamflow. We use these time series datasets to simulate, visualize, and analyze the watershed basin response to the varying climates and magnitudes of hydroclimatic fluxes in each river basin. Experiments modulating the time lag between remotely sensed and ground-truth measurements are performed to assess the metrological limits of forecasting with this platform. The resultant mean Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency values are both greater than 90%. Our results show that a hydrological machine learning platform such as F2F can become a powerful resource to simulate and forecast hydroclimatic extremes and the resulting watershed responses and natural hazards in a changing global climate. Full article

Hydrological reaction to climate change anticipates water cycle alterations. To ensure long-term water availability and accessibility, it is essential to develop sustainable water management strategies and better hydrological models that can simulate peak flow. These efforts will aid in water resource planning, management, and climate change mitigation. This study develops and compares Sacramento, Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM), TANK, and SIMHYD conceptual models to simulate daily streamflow at Rajegaon station of the Pranhita subbasin in the Godavari basin of India. The study uses daily Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall and temperature datasets. For 1987–2019, 70% of the models were calibrated and 30% validated. Pearson correlation (CC), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (CD) between the observed and simulated streamflow to evaluate model efficacy. The best conceptual (Sacramento) model selected to forecast future streamflow for the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios for the near (2021–2040), middle (2041–2070), and far future (2071–2100) using EC-Earth3 data was resampled and bias-corrected using distribution mapping. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario had the most significant relative rainfall change (55.02%) and absolute rise in the annual mean temperature (3.29 °C). In the middle and far future, the 95th percentile of monthly streamflow in the wettest July is anticipated to rise 40.09% to 127.06% and 73.90% to 215.13%. SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios predicted the largest streamflow increases in all three time periods. In the near, middle, and far future, the SSP585 scenario projects yearly relative streamflow changes of 72.49%, 93.80%, and 150.76%. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of considering the potential impacts of future scenarios on water resources to develop effective and sustainable water management practices. Full article

The assessment of seasonal streamflow forecasting is essential for appropriate water resource management. A suitable seasonal forecasting system requires the evaluation of both numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models to represent the atmospheric and hydrological processes and conditions in a specific region. In this paper, we evaluated the ECMWF-SEAS5 precipitation product with four hydrological models to represent seasonal streamflow forecasts performed at hydropower plants in the Legal Amazon region. The adopted models included GR4J, HYMOD, HBV, and SMAP, which were calibrated on a daily scale for the period from 2014 to 2019 and validated for the period from 2005 to 2013. The seasonal streamflow forecasts were obtained for the period from 2017 to 2019 by considering a daily scale streamflow simulation comprising an ensemble with 51 members of forecasts, starting on the first day of every month up to 7 months ahead. For each forecast, the corresponding monthly streamflow time series was estimated. A post-processing procedure based on the adjustment of an autoregressive model for the residuals was applied to correct the bias of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Hence, for the calibration and validation period, the results show that the HBV model provides better results to represent the hydrological conditions at each hydropower plant, presenting NSE and NSElog values greater than 0.8 and 0.9, respectively, during the calibration stage. However, the SMAP model achieves a better performance with NSE values of up to 0.5 for the raw forecasts. In addition, the bias correction displayed a significant improvement in the forecasts for all hydrological models, specifically for the representation of streamflow during dry periods, significantly reducing the variability of the residuals. Full article