Search Results (301)

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. While traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have long served as the backbone of operational forecasting, they face limitations in computational cost and sensitivity to initial conditions. In recent years, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising alternative, offering data-driven modeling capabilities for capturing nonlinear spatiotemporal patterns. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DL-based approaches for TC track forecasting. We categorize all DL-based TC tracking models according to the architecture, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Transformers, graph neural networks (GNNs), generative models, and Fourier-based operators. To enable rigorous performance comparison, we introduce a Unified Geodesic Distance Error (UGDE) metric that standardizes evaluation across diverse studies and lead times. Based on this metric, we conduct a critical comparison of state-of-the-art models and identify key insights into their relative strengths, limitations, and suitable application scenarios. Building on this framework, we conduct a critical cross-model analysis that reveals key trends, performance disparities, and architectural tradeoffs. Our analysis also highlights several persistent challenges, such as long-term forecast degradation, limited physical integration, and generalization to extreme events, pointing toward future directions for developing more robust and operationally viable DL models for TC track forecasting. To support reproducibility and facilitate standardized evaluation, we release an open-source UGDE conversion tool on GitHub. Full article

Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry (Latitude 30.1 N) in the Big Bend area of Florida with a central pressure of 939 hPa. It moved northwards creating devastating damage and loss of life; however, the greatest damage and number of fatalities occurred well to the north around the City of Ashville (Latitude 35.6 N) where extreme rainfall fell and some of the strongest wind gusts were reported. This paper describes the change in the hurricane’s structure as it tracked northwards, how it gathered tropical moisture from the Atlantic and a turning wind profile between the 850 hPa and 500 hPa elevations, which led to such extreme rainfall. This turning wind profile is shown to be associated with extreme rainfall and loss of life from drowning and landslides around the globe. The area around Ashville suffered 157 fatalities, which is a considerable proportion of the 250 fatalities so far recorded in the whole United Stares from Helene. This is of extreme concern and should be investigated in detail as the public expect the greatest impact from hurricanes to be confined to coastal areas near the landfall site. It is another example of increased death tolls from tropical cyclones moving inland and generating heavy rainfall. As the global population increases and inland centres become more urbanised, run off from such rainfall events increases, which causes greater devastation. Full article

Part I of this two-part documentation of the ECMWF ensemble (ECEPS) new tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasting challenges during the 2024 western North Pacific season described four typhoons that started well to the south of an unfavorable external environment north of 20° N. In this Part II, five other 2024 season typhoons that formed and intensified near and north of 20° N are documented. One change is that the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies ADT + AIDT intensities derived from the Himawari-9 satellite were utilized for initialization and validation of the ECEPS intensity forecasts. Our first objective of providing earlier track and intensity forecast guidance than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) five-day forecasts was achieved for all five typhoons, although the track forecast spread was large for the early forecasts. For Marie (06 W) and Ampil (08 W) that formed near 25° N, 140° E in the middle of the unfavorable external environment, the ECEPS intensity forecasts accurately predicted the ADT + AIDT intensities with the exception that the rapid intensification of Ampil over the Kuroshio ocean current was underpredicted. Shanshan (11 W) was a challenging forecast as it intensified to a typhoon while being quasi-stationary near 17° N, 142° E before turning to the north to cross 20° N into the unfavorable external environment. While the ECEPS provided accurate guidance as to the timing and the longitude of the 20° N crossing, the later recurvature near Japan timing was a day early and 4 degrees longitude to the east. The ECEPS provided early, accurate track forecasts of Jebi’s (19 W) threat to mainland Japan. However, the ECEPS was predicting extratropical transition with V_max ~35 kt when the JTWC was interpreting Jebi’s remnants as a tropical cyclone. The ECEPS predicted well the unusual southward track of Krathon (20 W) out of the unfavorable environment to intensify while quasi-stationary near 18.5° N, 125.6° E. However, the rapid intensification as Krathon moved westward along 20° N was underpredicted. Full article

This research investigates how incorporating both radar radial velocity ($V_r$) and radar reflectivity influences the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) prediction. Different control variables are introduced to analyze their roles in $V_r$ data assimilation, while background-dependent radar reflectivity assimilation methods are also applied. Using Typhoon “Doksuri” (2023) as a primary case study and Typhoon “Kompasu” (2021) as a supplementary case, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model’s three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to assimilate $V_r$ and reflectivity observations to improve TC track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts. Three experiments were conducted for each typhoon: one with no assimilation, one with $V_r$ assimilation using $\psi -\chi$ control variables and background-dependent radar reflectivity assimilation, and one with $V_r$ assimilation using $U-V$ control variables and background-dependent radar reflectivity assimilation. The results show that assimilating $V_r$ enhances small-scale dynamics in the TC core, leading to a more organized and stronger wind field. The experiment involving $U-V$ control variables consistently showed advantages over the $\psi -\chi$ scheme in aspects such as overall track prediction, initial intensity representation, and producing more stable or physically plausible intensity trends, particularly evident when comparing both typhoon events. These findings highlight the importance of optimizing control variables and assimilation methods to enhance the prediction of TCs. Full article

To improve the prediction of Typhoon Doksuri (2023), this paper explores how variations in horizontal scale factors used in assimilating radar-derived wind velocities influence the performance of numerical simulations and forecasts. Using the WRF-ARW model in conjunction with the WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system, two assimilation configurations were tested with horizontal length scale factors of 1.0 and 0.25. Results show that a reduced length scale facilitates a more detailed reconstruction of mesoscale features, including the typhoon’s eye and inner-core circulation, leading to improved accuracy in short-term intensity and structure forecasts. The experiment utilizing the 0.25 length scale exhibited a tighter warm core, stronger cyclonic wind bands, and a better representation of the vortex’s three-dimensional structure. However, this configuration also led to growing forecast deviations in the latter stages, likely due to imbalances introduced by excessive localization. In contrast, the 1.0-scale experiment produced smoother but less accurate structures and demonstrated larger track deviations. These findings highlight a key trade-off between localized observational influence and long-term forecast stability. The study underscores the importance of optimizing horizontal scale parameterization in variational assimilation to enhance the forecasting accuracy of high-impact tropical cyclones and offers practical insights for operational forecasting systems in regions frequently affected by typhoon activity. Full article

Between 14 and 16 June 2023, an extratropical cyclone affected the south-southeastern coast of Brazil, causing significant damage and loss of life. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Civil Defense authorities reported at least 16 fatalities. Although numerical models can simulate the general characteristics of extratropical cyclones, they often struggle to accurately represent the intensity and timing of strong winds and heavy precipitation. One approach to improving such simulations is the use of convective-permitting models (CPMs), in which convection is explicitly resolved. In this context, the main objective of this study is to assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in CP mode, nested in the ERA5 reanalysis, in representing both the synoptic and mesoscale structures of the cyclone, as well as its associated strong winds and precipitation. The WRF-CP successfully simulated the cyclone’s track, though with some discrepancies in the cyclone location during the first 12 h. Comparisons with radar-based precipitation estimates indicated that the WRF-CP captured the location of the observed precipitation bands. During the cyclone’s occlusion phase—when precipitation was particularly intense—hourly simulated precipitation and 10 m wind (speed, zonal, and meridional components) were evaluated against observations from meteorological stations. WRF-CP demonstrated strong skill in simulating both the timing and intensity of precipitation, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.4 and biases below 0.5 mm h⁻¹. Some limitations were observed in the simulation of 10 m wind speed, which tended to be overestimated. However, the model performed well in simulating the wind components, particularly the zonal component, as indicated by predominantly high correlation values (most above 0.4), suggesting a good representation of wind direction, which is a function of the zonal and meridional components. Overall, the simulation highlights the potential of WRF-CP for studying extreme weather events, including the small-scale structures embedded within synoptic-scale cyclones responsible for producing adverse weather. Full article

Tropical cyclone (TC) track clustering plays a crucial role in understanding cyclone movement patterns, which is essential for risk assessment and disaster preparedness. This study proposes an improved SD-K-Means clustering algorithm for classifying TC tracks. Using the best-track datasets of TCs from 2000 to 2022, provided by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), it explores the quantitative relationships between various TC features, such as latitude, longitude, and wind speed, and their motion speed and deflection angles. Based on these analyses, clustering indicators coupled with TC tracks and motion characteristics are identified. To evaluate the model’s performance, three clustering methods—standard K-Means, DTW (Dynamic Time Warping)-based K-Means, and DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise)—are compared using the Calinski–Harabasz (CH) index and the Davies–Bouldin Index (DBI) as evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that the SD-K-Means algorithm achieved high consistency across the majority of clustering indices, with the optimal number of clusters determined to be four. The spatial distribution of the clustering results demonstrates that SD-K-Means is effective in distinguishing different TC track patterns, providing valuable insights for regional disaster prevention and risk management efforts. Full article

As China’s largest peninsula, the Shandong Peninsula faces recurrent threats from both tropical and extratropical cyclone-induced storm surges. Understanding the distinct mechanisms governing these surge types is critical for developing targeted coastal hazard mitigation strategies. This investigation employs the FVCOM-SWAVE coupled wave–current model to conduct numerical simulations and comparative analyses of two 2022 surge events, Typhoon Muifa (tropical) and the “221003” extratropical surge. The results demonstrate that hydrodynamic responses exhibit strong dependence on surge-generating meteorological regimes. Tropical surge dynamics correlate closely with typhoon track geometry, intensity gradients, and asymmetric wind field structures, manifesting rightward-biased energy intensification relative to storm motion. Conversely, extratropical surge variations align with evolving wind-pressure configurations during cold air advection, driven by synoptic-scale atmospheric reorganization. The hydrodynamic environmental response in the sea areas surrounding Jiaodong and Laizhou Bay is particularly pronounced, influenced by the intensity of wind stress on the sea surface, as well as the bathymetry and coastal geometry. Full article

Catastrophic precipitation is an inherent feature of temperate climates. Its occurrence is a manifestation of climate change, but also of the variability of atmospheric circulation. Mountainous areas may be particularly vulnerable as they receive more precipitation and are also areas where relief plays an important role in modifying the distribution of precipitation. One such area is the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains, especially the area around the city of Bielsko-Biała, located at their foot and directly exposed to rain-bearing winds. In 2024, two episodes of unusually heavy precipitation in quick succession occurred in this area, resulting in severe damage to infrastructure. This painful experience inspired a study focusing on the frequency of such catastrophic precipitation events and their synoptic circumstances spanning the period from the mid-20th century to the present day. Daily precipitation totals covering the study period of 74 years were used to identify a category of catastrophic precipitation (here set at above 100 mm). The six events identified to match the criteria appeared from May to September, always accompanied by cyclonic circulation types with advection from the northern sector and with a cyclonic trough situation over southern Poland. The study showed that the leading role in their formation was played by deep convection, especially a Genoa low moving along the Vb Van Bebber track. The damage and destruction suffered as a result were a consequence of the cumulative impact of high-intensity rainfall, itself caused by a combination of specific synoptic thermodynamic and orographic conditions. Full article

To evaluate tropical cyclone forecasting on synoptic timescale, tracking and intensity are used. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale, what aspects of tropical cyclones should be predicted and how to evaluate forecasting skills still remain open questions. Following our previous work, which proposed using daily tropical cyclone probability (DTCP) as a measure of tropical cyclone activity and the debiased Brier skill score (DBSS) to evaluate tropical cyclone forecasting on S2S timescale, the present research investigates the influence of several factors that may influence the use of DTCP and the DBSS framework. These factors are the forecast time window, tropical cyclone influence radius, evaluation region, forecast sample, and how the Brier score for the reference climate forecast is computed. The influence of these factors is discussed based on the output of the S2S prediction project database and comparison of the DBSS when the above factors are changed individually. Changes in the forecast time window, evaluation region, and tropical cyclone influence radius can change the DTCP. The larger the tropical cyclone influence radius and the longer the forecast time window, the larger the DTCP will be. However, the spatially averaged DBSS changes very little. Using estimated Brier score for reference climate forecast can cause variation due to limited forecast samples. It is recommended to use the theoretical value of the Brier score for reference climate forecasting, instead of its estimation. Full article

Eddy identification and tracking are essential for understanding ocean dynamics. This study employed the elliptical Gaussian function (EGF) simulations and the py-eddy-tracker (PET) algorithm, validated by Surface Velocity Program (SVP) drifter data, to track eddies in the western North Pacific Ocean. The PET method effectively identified large- and mesoscale eddies but struggled with submesoscale features, indicating areas for improvement. Simulated satellite altimetry by EGF, mirroring Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT)’s high-resolution observations, confirmed PET’s capability in processing fine-scale data, though accuracy declined for submesoscale eddies. Over 22 years, 1,188,649 eddies were identified, mainly concentrated east of Taiwan. Temporal analysis showed interannual variability, more cyclonic than anticyclonic eddies, and a seasonal peak in spring, likely influenced by marine conditions. Short-lived eddies were uniformly distributed, while long-lived ones followed major currents, validating PET’s robustness with SVP drifters. The launch of the SWOT satellite in 2022 has enhanced fine-scale ocean studies, enabling the detection of submesoscale eddies previously unresolved by conventional altimetry. SWOT observations reveal intricate eddy structures, including small cyclonic features in the northwestern Pacific, demonstrating its potential for improving eddy tracking. Future work should refine the PET algorithm for SWOT’s swath altimetry, addressing data gaps and unclosed contours. Integrating SWOT with in situ drifters, numerical models, and machine learning will further enhance eddy classification, benefiting ocean circulation studies and climate modeling. Full article

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the energy dynamics of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, Medicane Ianos, by using a moist static energy (MSE) budget framework. Medicanes are hybrid cyclonic systems that share characteristics of both extratropical and tropical cyclones, making their classification and prediction challenging. Using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data, we analyzed the life cycle of Ianos, which is one of the strongest recorded medicanes, employing the vertically integrated MSE spatial variance budget to quantify the contributions of different energy sources to the cyclone’s development. The chosen study area was approximately 2500² km², covering the entire track of the cyclone. The budget was calculated after tracking Ianos and applying Hart phase space analysis to assess the cyclone phases. The results show that the MSE budget can reveal that the cyclone development was driven by a delicate balance between convection and dynamical factors. The interplay between vertical and horizontal advection, in particular the upward transport of moist air and the lateral inflow of warm, moist air and cold, dry air, was a key mechanism driving the evolution of Ianos, followed by surface fluxes and radiative feedback. By analyzing what process contributes most to the increase in MSE variance, we concluded that Ianos can be assimilated in the tropical framework within a radius of 600 km around the cyclone center, but only during its intense phase. In this way, the budget can contribute as a diagnostic tool to the ongoing debate regarding medicanes classification. Full article

This study investigates a severe summer convective hailstorm that occurred in Shanghai on 18 August 2019, using multisource meteorological datasets, with a particular focus on the innovative application of a single-polarization X-band array weather radar (AWR). Radiosonde data revealed high convective available potential energy and unstable atmospheric indices, while wind profiler radars (WPRs) showed initial easterly moisture transport near the ground and strong southwesterly flow aloft, both contributing significantly to intense convection. Ground-based automatic meteorological stations (AMSs) recorded abrupt temperature drops of approximately 10 °C and wind speed increases exceeding 20 m s⁻¹, which aligned closely with the rapid expansion of the hailstorm. In addition, an integrated analysis of data from AWR, WPRs, and AMSs enabled detailed tracking of the storm’s evolution, providing deeper insights into the interplay between moisture transport and dynamic lifting. The AWR’s unique ability to capture divergence and vorticity fields at different altitudes revealed low-level convergence coupled with high-level divergence and cyclonic rotation, sustaining convective updrafts. This study underscores the value of high-resolution AWR data in capturing short-lived, intense precipitation processes, thereby enhancing our understanding of wind field structures and storm development. These findings highlight the comprehensive application of AWR data and the potential of this new high-spatiotemporal-resolution radar for investigating the mechanisms of short-lived severe convective processes. Full article

The southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains features complex terrain and an arid climate, yet paradoxically experiences frequent extreme precipitation events (EPEs), which pose significant challenges for weather forecasting. This study investigates an EPE that occurred from 20 to 21 August 2019 using multi-source data to examine circulation patterns, mesoscale characteristics, moisture dynamics, and energy-instability mechanisms. The results reveal distinct spatiotemporal variability in precipitation, prompting a two-stage analytical framework: stage 1 (western plains), dominated by localized convective cells, and stage 2 (northeastern mountains), characterized by orographically enhanced precipitation clusters. The event was associated with a “two ridges and one trough” circulation pattern at 500 hPa and a dual-core structure of the South Asian high at 200 hPa. Dynamic forcing stemmed from cyclonic convergence, vertical wind shear, low-level convergence lines, water vapor (WV) transport, and jet-induced upper-level divergence. A stronger vorticity, divergence, and vertical velocity in stage 1 resulted in more intense precipitation. The thermodynamic analysis showed enhanced low-level cold advection in the plains before the event. Sounding data revealed increases in precipitable water and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in both stages. WV tracing showed vertical differences in moisture sources: at 3000 m, ~70% originated from Central Asia via the Caspian and Black Seas; at 5000 m, source and path differences emerged between stages. In stage 1, specific humidity along each vapor track was higher than in stage 2 during the EPE, with a 12 h pre-event enhancement. Both stages featured rapid convective cloud growth, with decreases in total black body temperature (TBB) associated with precipitation intensification. During stage 1, the EPE center aligned with a large TBB gradient at the edge of a cold cloud zone, where vigorous convection occurred. In contrast to typical northern events, which are linked to colder cloud tops and vigorous convection, the afternoon EPE in stage 2 formed near cloud edges with lesser negative TBB values. These findings advance the understanding of multi-scale extreme precipitation mechanisms in arid mountains, aiding improved forecasting in complex terrains. Full article

Mesoscale eddies play a crucial role as primary transporters of heat, salinity, and freshwater in oceanic systems. Utilizing the latest Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) dataset, this study employed the py-eddy-tracker (PET) algorithm to identify and track mesoscale eddies in the North Atlantic (NA). Our investigation focused on evaluating the influence of applying varying filter wavelengths (800, 600, 400, and 200 km) for absolute dynamic topography (ADT) on the detection of spatiotemporal patterns and dynamic properties of mesoscale eddies, encompassing eddy kinetic energy (EKE), effective radius, rotational velocity, amplitude, lifespan, and propagation distance. The analysis reveals a cyclonic to anticyclonic eddy ratio of approximately 1.1:1 in the study region. The dynamic parameters of mesoscale eddies identified at filter wavelengths of 800 km and 600 km are similar, while a marked reduction in these parameters becomes evident at the 200 km wavelength. Parameter comparative analysis indicates that effective radius exhibits the highest sensitivity to wavelength reduction, followed by amplitude, whereas rotational velocity remains relatively unaffected by filtering variations. The lifespan distribution analysis shows that the majority of eddies persist for 7–21 days, with only a small number of robust mesoscale eddies maintaining activity beyond 45 days. These long-lived, strong mesoscale eddies are primarily generated in the high-energy current zones associated with the Gulf Stream (GS). Full article