Search Results (191)

Loan default prediction is a critical task for financial institutions, directly influencing risk management, loan approval decisions, and profitability. This study evaluates the effectiveness of machine learning models, specifically XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and LightGBM, in predicting loan defaults. The research investigates the following question: How effective are machine learning models in predicting loan defaults compared to traditional approaches? A structured machine learning pipeline is developed, including data preprocessing, feature engineering, class imbalance handling (SMOTE and class weighting), model training, hyperparameter tuning, and evaluation. Models are assessed using accuracy, F1-score, ROC AUC, precision–recall curves, and confusion matrices. The results show that Gradient Boosting achieves the highest overall classification performance (accuracy = 0.8887, F1-score = 0.8084, recall = 0.8021), making it the most effective model for identifying defaulters. XGBoost exhibits superior discriminatory power with the highest ROC AUC (0.9714). A cost-sensitive threshold-tuning procedure is embedded to align predictions with regulatory loss weights to support audit requirements. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between sovereign credit rating transitions and domestic equity market performance, focusing on Greece from 2004 to 2024. Although credit ratings are central to sovereign risk assessment, their immediate influence on financial markets remains contested. This research adopts a multi-method analytical framework combining algebraic combinatorics and time-series econometrics. The methodology incorporates the construction of a directed credit rating transition graph, the partially ordered set representation of rating hierarchies, rolling-window correlation analysis, Granger causality testing, event study evaluation, and the formulation of a reward matrix with optimal rating path optimization. Empirical results indicate that credit rating announcements in Greece exert only modest short-term effects on the Athens Stock Exchange General Index, implying that markets often anticipate these changes. In contrast, sequential downgrade trajectories elicit more pronounced and persistent market responses. The reward matrix and path optimization approach reveal structured investor behavior that is sensitive to the cumulative pattern of rating changes. These findings offer a more nuanced interpretation of how sovereign credit risk is processed and priced in transparent and fiscally disciplined environments. By bridging network-based algebraic structures and economic data science, the study contributes a novel methodology for understanding systemic financial signals within sovereign credit systems. Full article

This study examines the long-term financial sustainability of commercial banks, emphasizing the crucial role of credit risk management. Given that the core function of credit creation inherently exposes banks to credit risk, this analysis evaluates how five key bank-specific risk variables, namely expected credit losses (ECL_BS), impairment gains or losses (ECL_IS), non-performing loans (NPLs), common equity tier 1 capital (CET1), and leverage (LEV) affect long-term financial sustainability. Applying a panel error correction model on data from listed South African banks spanning 2006 to 2023, the study reveals a stable long-term relationship, with approximately 74% of short-term deviations corrected over time, indicating convergence towards equilibrium. By taking into account the significance of major exogeneous shocks such as the 2009–2010 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as regulatory framework changes, the results reveal persistent relationships between credit risk factors and banks’ long-term financial sustainability in both short and long horizons. Notably, expected credit losses, and impairment gains and losses exert significant negative influence on long-term financial sustainability, while higher CET1 and NPLs exhibit positive effects. The study findings are framed within four complementary theoretical perspectives—the resource-based view, institutional theory, industrial organisation, and the dynamic capabilities framework—highlighting the multidimensional drivers of financial resilience. Thus, the study’s originality lies in its integrated approach to assessing credit risk, offering a holistic model for evaluating its influence on long-term financial sustainability. This integrated framework provides valuable, actionable insights for financial regulators, bank executives, policymakers, and banking practitioners committed to strengthening credit risk frameworks and aligning banking sector stability with broader sustainable development goals. Full article

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is critical for enhancing the predictive performance of machine learning models in credit risk assessment for peer-to-peer (P2P) lending. This study evaluates four HPO methods, Grid Search, Random Search, Hyperopt, and Optuna, across four models, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, using three real-world datasets (Lending Club, Australia, Taiwan). We assess predictive accuracy (AUC, Sensitivity, Specificity, G-Mean), computational efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. LightGBM achieves the highest AUC (e.g., $70.77\%$ on Lending Club, $93.25\%$ on Australia, $77.85\%$ on Taiwan), with XGBoost performing comparably. Bayesian methods (Hyperopt, Optuna) match or approach Grid Search’s accuracy while reducing runtime by up to $75.7$-fold (e.g., $3.19$ vs. $241.47$ min for LightGBM on Lending Club). A sensitivity analysis confirms robust hyperparameter configurations, with AUC variations typically below $0.4\%$ under $\pm 10\%$ perturbations. A feature importance analysis, using gain and SHAP metrics, identifies debt-to-income ratio and employment title as key default predictors, with stable rankings (Spearman correlation $> 0.95, p<0.01$) across tuning methods, enhancing model interpretability. Operational impact depends on data quality, scalable infrastructure, fairness audits for features like employment title, and stakeholder collaboration to ensure compliance with regulations like the EU AI Act and U.S. Equal Credit Opportunity Act. These findings advocate Bayesian HPO and ensemble models in P2P lending, offering scalable, transparent, and fair solutions for default prediction, with future research suggested to explore advanced resampling, cost-sensitive metrics, and feature interactions. Full article

In the present study, we model the migration process and the changes in the market environment. The migration process is being modeled as an $\mathcal{F}$-inhomogeneous semi-Markov process with fuzzy states. The evolution of the migration process takes place within a stochastic market environment with fuzzy states, the transitions of which are being modeled as an $\mathcal{F}$-inhomogeneous semi-Markov process. We prove a recursive relation from which we could find the survival probabilities of the bonds or debts as functions of the basic parameters of the two $\mathcal{F}$-inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes. The asymptotic behavior of the survival probabilities is being found under certain easily met conditions in closed analytic form. Finally, we provide maximum likelihood estimators for the basic parameters of the proposed models. Full article

This study aims to analyze the determinants of bank profitability in Angola by employing panel data econometric models, specifically, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), to assess the impact of internal and external factors on the financial indicators ROE, ROA, and NIM for the period 2016 to 2023. The results reveal that credit risk, operational efficiency, and liquidity are critical determinants of banking performance. Effective credit risk management and cost optimization are essential for the sector’s stability. Banking concentration presents mixed effects, enhancing net interest income while potentially undermining efficiency. Economic growth supports profitability, whereas inflation exerts a negative influence. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened asset quality, increased credit risk, and led to a rise in non-performing loans and provisions. Reforms implemented by the National Bank of Angola have contributed to strengthening the banking system’s resilience through restructuring and regulatory improvements. The rise of digitalization and fintech presents opportunities to enhance financial inclusion and efficiency, although their success relies on advancing financial literacy. This study contributes to the literature by providing updated empirical evidence on the factors influencing bank profitability within an emerging economy’s distinctive institutional and economic context. Full article

Past and current advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have resulted in a significant impact on business and accounting. Over time, AI has slowly transformed from the 1950s to today, from rule-based systems, also known as expert systems, to the deep learning architectures and sophisticated neural networks of modern generative AI. Early AI accounting applications of expert systems included a GAAP-based expert system to assess the appropriate accounting treatment for business combinations and an expert system to determine the proper type of audit report to issue. Recent accounting expert systems have been developed for document analysis, fraud detection, evaluating credit risk, and corporate default forecasting. The purpose of this study is to examine key events in the history of AI, current applications, and potential future effects pertaining to management accounting and society overall. In addition, the relationship of AI with economic and social factors will be evaluated. The study’s findings will be of interest to management accountants, businesspersons, academic researchers, and others who are concerned with artificial intelligence and its impact on management accounting and society overall. Full article

Accurate corporate credit ratings are essential for financial risk assessment; yet, traditional methodologies relying on manual evaluation and basic statistical models often fall short in dynamic economic conditions. This study investigated the potential of machine-learning (ML) algorithms as a more precise and adaptable alternative for credit rating predictions. Using a seven-year dataset from S&P Capital IQ Pro, corporate credit ratings across 20 countries were analyzed, leveraging 51 financial and business risk variables. The study evaluated multiple ML models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting (GB), and Neural Networks, using rigorous data pre-processing, feature selection, and validation techniques. Results indicate that Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and GB consistently outperform traditional models, particularly in capturing non-linear relationships and complex interactions among predictive factors. This study advances financial risk management by demonstrating the efficacy of ML-driven credit rating systems, offering a more accurate, efficient, and scalable solution. Additionally, it provides practical insights for financial institutions aiming to enhance their risk assessment frameworks. Future research should explore alternative data sources, real-time analytics, and model explainability to facilitate regulatory adoption. Full article

This study presents a bibliometric analysis, using spatial approach, of 943 articles from 2003 to March 2025 showing the growing importance of CDSs in the literature and their role in credit risk management. The Web of Science’s Core Collection database was used for bibliometric mapping. The bibliographic data were grouped and analyzed using VOSviewer to create network visualization maps that included country-wise, document-wise, and source-wise citations analysis, bibliographic coupling, and the co-occurrence of keywords. Subsequently, significant terms were identified through the analyses where risk assessment, risk management, and credit derivatives were found to be the most used keywords. Further, USA turns out to be the country where the most research was published on CDSs with maximum citations, highlighting the growing popularity of this research topic in this region. In addition, bibliographic coupling appears to capture information from 13 clusters formed during the analysis on bibliographically linked documents with their link strength. The bibliometric analysis of the CDS literature illustrates the intellectual framework of research on this topic, traces the progression of the research topic over time, and identifies the areas where this research field might develop in the future. Full article

This study explores the nuanced relationship between biodiversity and sovereign credit ratings, underscoring the link between environmental sustainability and economic resilience. As credit rating methodologies increasingly incorporate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) dimensions alongside traditional macroeconomic indicators, biodiversity has emerged as a vital factor influencing sovereign creditworthiness. Drawing on a panel dataset of 62 countries—representing 91% of the global GDP and 81% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions—from 2001 to 2021, the research utilizes advanced econometric techniques, including the panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and panel quantile regression. The GMM analysis indicates that higher biodiversity levels are generally associated with a decline in credit ratings. However, the quantile regression provides a more differentiated view, revealing that biodiversity’s impact varies by a country’s existing credit standing. Specifically, nations with lower credit ratings tend to benefit from richer biodiversity, while countries with higher credit ratings show a modest negative association—reflecting structural and institutional differences. Robustness checks confirm these results, highlighting the relevance of biodiversity indicators such as the Red List Index in credit evaluations. The findings support the integration of biodiversity into sovereign risk assessments to enhance the alignment of financial systems with long-term ecological and economic sustainability goals. Full article

Credit risk is one of the most important issues in the rapidly growing and developing finance sector. This study utilized a dataset containing real information about the bill payments of individuals who made transactions with a payment institution operating in Turkey. First, the transactions in the dataset were analyzed based on the bill type and the individual and features reflecting the payment habits were extracted. For the target class, real credit scores generated by the Credit Registry Office for the individuals whose payment habits were extracted were used. The dataset is a multi-class, unbalanced, and alternative dataset. Therefore, the dataset was prepared for the analysis by using data cleaning, feature selection, and sampling techniques. Then, the dataset was classified using various classification and evaluation methods. The best results were obtained with a model consisting of ANOVA F-Test, SMOTE, and Extra Tree algorithms. With this model, 80.49% accuracy, 79.89% precision, and 97.04% UAC rate were obtained. These results are quite efficient for an alternative dataset with 10 classes. This model was transformed into an explainable and interpretable form using LIME and SHAP, which are XAI techniques. This study presents a new hybrid model for credit risk assessment based on a multi-class and imbalanced alternative dataset and machine learning. Full article

The cattle sector plays a critical role in Peru’s agricultural economy, yet it faces challenges related to low productivity and environmental degradation. Sustainable alternatives like silvo-pastoral systems (SPSs) offer promising solutions to enhance both economic returns and ecological outcomes in cattle farming. This study examines the economic viability of an intensive SPS (SPSi) compared to traditional monoculture grass systems in San Martín, Peru. The SPSi under study is in the evaluation phase, integrates grasses, legumes, shrubs, and trees, and has the potential to enhance cattle farming profitability while simultaneously offering environmental benefits such as improved soil health and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Through a discounted cash flow model over an eight-year period, key profitability indicators—Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit–Cost Ratio (BC), and payback period—were estimated for four dual-purpose cattle production scenarios: a traditional system and three SPSi scenarios (pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic). Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to assess risk, ensuring robust results. The results show that the NPV for the traditional system was a modest USD 61, while SPSi scenarios ranged from USD 9564 to USD 20,465. The IRR improved from 8.17% in the traditional system to between 26.63% and 30.33% in SPSi scenarios, with a shorter payback period of 4.5 to 5.8 years, compared to 7.98 years in the traditional system. Additionally, the SPSi demonstrated a 30% increase in milk production and a 50% to 250% rise in stocking rates per hectare. The study recommends, subject to pending validations through field trials, promoting SPSi adoption through improved access to credit, technical assistance, and policy frameworks that compensate farmers for ecosystem services. Policymakers should also implement monitoring mechanisms to mitigate unintended consequences, such as deforestation, ensuring that SPSi expansion aligns with sustainable land management practices. Overall, the SPSi presents a viable solution for achieving economic resilience and environmental sustainability in Peru’s cattle sector. Full article

In the aftermath of global financial crises and amid increasing complexity in banking operations, understanding and managing various types of risk—especially liquidity, credit, and solvency risks—has become a global concern for financial stability. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature by examining the dynamic interrelationships among these three types of risk in the context of emerging markets. Using data from 21 banks listed on the Iranian capital market from 2011 to 2023, we employ a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) alongside panel impulse response analysis to assess both short- and long-term dynamics. Our results reveal that an increase in liquidity positively impacts bank solvency, while credit risk negatively affects solvency but does not significantly influence liquidity risk. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of systemic risk interactions in banking and provide practical insights for policymakers and financial institutions seeking to enhance risk management strategies in volatile market environments. Full article

Credit risk assessment plays a critical role in financial risk management, focusing on predicting borrower default to minimize losses and ensure compliance. This study systematically reviews 23 empirical articles published between 2019 and 2023, highlighting the integration of machine learning and optimization techniques, particularly bio-inspired metaheuristics, for feature selection in individual credit risk assessment. These nature-inspired algorithms, derived from biological and ecological processes, align with bio-inspired principles by mimicking natural intelligence to solve complex problems in high-dimensional feature spaces. Unlike prior reviews that adopt broader scopes combining corporate, sovereign, and individual contexts, this work focuses exclusively on methodological strategies for individual credit risk. It categorizes the use of machine learning algorithms, feature selection methods, and metaheuristic optimization techniques, including genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, and biogeography-based optimization. To strengthen transparency and comparability, this review also synthesizes classification performance metrics—such as accuracy, AUC, F1-score, and recall—reported across benchmark datasets. Although no unified experimental comparison was conducted due to heterogeneity in study protocols, this structured summary reveals consistent trends in algorithm effectiveness and evaluation practices. The review concludes with practical recommendations and outlines future research directions to improve fairness, scalability, and real-time application in credit risk modeling. Full article

Robust credit risk prediction in emerging economies increasingly demands the integration of external factors (EFs) beyond borrowers’ control. This study introduces a scenario-based methodology to incorporate EF—namely COVID-19 severity (mortality and confirmed cases), climate anomalies (temperature deviations, weather-induced road blockages), and social unrest—into machine learning (ML) models for credit delinquency prediction. The approach is grounded in a CRISP-DM framework, combining stationarity testing (Dickey–Fuller), causality analysis (Granger), and post hoc explainability (SHAP, LIME), along with performance evaluation via AUC, ACC, KS, and F1 metrics. The empirical analysis uses nearly 8.2 million records compiled from multiple sources, including 367,000 credit operations granted to individuals and microbusiness owners by a regulated Peruvian financial institution (FMOD) between January 2020 and September 2023. These data also include time series of delinquency by economic activity, external factor indicators (e.g., mortality, climate disruptions, and protest events), and their dynamic interactions assessed through Granger causality to evaluate both the intensity and propagation of external shocks. The results confirm that EF inclusion significantly enhances model performance and robustness. Time-lagged mortality (COVID MOV) emerges as the most powerful single predictor of delinquency, while compound crises (climate and unrest) further intensify default risk—particularly in portfolios without public support. Among the evaluated models, CNN and XGB consistently demonstrate superior adaptability, defined as their ability to maintain strong predictive performance across diverse stress scenarios—including pandemic, climate, and unrest contexts—and to dynamically adjust to varying input distributions and portfolio conditions. Post hoc analyses reveal that EF effects dynamically interact with borrower income, indebtedness, and behavioral traits. This study provides a scalable, explainable framework for integrating systemic shocks into credit risk modeling. The findings contribute to more informed, adaptive, and transparent lending decisions in volatile economic contexts, relevant to financial institutions, regulators, and risk practitioners in emerging markets. Full article