Search Results (3,388)

Forest volume is an important information for assessing the economic value and carbon sequestration capacity of forest resources and serves as a key indicator for energy flow and biodiversity. Although remote sensing technology is applied to estimate volume, optical remote sensing data have limitations in capturing forest vertical height information and may suffer from reflectance saturation. While LiDAR data can provide more detailed vertical structural information, they come with high processing costs and limited observation range. Therefore, improving the accuracy of volume estimation through multi-source data fusion has become a crucial challenge and research focus in the field of forest remote sensing. In this study, we integrated Sentinel-2 multispectral data, Resource-3 stereoscopic imagery, UAV-based LiDAR data, and field survey data to quantitatively estimate the forest volume in Saihanwula Nature Reserve, located in Inner Mongolia, China, on the southern part of Daxing’anling Mountains. The study evaluated the performance of multi-source remote sensing features by using recursive feature elimination (RFE) to select the most relevant factors and applied four machine learning models—multiple linear regression (MLR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT)—to develop volume estimation models. The evaluation metrics include the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative root mean square error (rRMSE). The results show that (1) forest Canopy Height Model (CHM) data were strongly correlated with forest volume, helping to alleviate the reflectance saturation issues inherent in spectral texture data. The fusion of CHM and spectral data resulted in an improved volume estimation model with R² = 0.75 and RMSE = 8.16 m³/hm², highlighting the importance of integrating multi-source canopy height information for more accurate volume estimation. (2) Volume estimation accuracy varied across different tree species. For Betula platyphylla, we obtained R² = 0.71 and RMSE = 6.96 m³/hm²; for Quercus mongolica, R² = 0.74 and RMSE = 6.90 m³/hm²; and for Populus davidiana, R² = 0.51 and RMSE = 9.29 m³/hm². The total forest volume in the Saihanwula Reserve ranges from 50 to 110 m³/hm². (3) Among the four machine learning models, GBRT consistently outperformed others in all evaluation metrics, achieving the highest R² of 0.86, lowest RMSE of 9.69 m³/hm², and lowest rRMSE of 24.57%, suggesting its potential for forest biomass estimation. In conclusion, accurate estimation of forest volume is critical for evaluating forest management practices and timber resources. While this integrated approach shows promise, its operational application requires further external validation and uncertainty analysis to support policy-relevant decisions. The integration of multi-source remote sensing data provides valuable support for forest resource accounting, economic value assessment, and monitoring dynamic changes in forest ecosystems. Full article

To fully accommodate renewable and derivative energy sources in mine energy systems under supply and demand uncertainties, this paper proposes an optimized electricity–heat scheduling method for mining areas that incorporates Power-to-Gas (P2G) technology and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, to address uncertainties on both the supply and demand sides, a P2G unit is introduced, and a Latin hypercube sampling technique based on Cholesky decomposition is employed to generate wind–solar-load sample matrices that capture source–load correlations, which are subsequently used to construct representative scenarios. Second, a stochastic optimization scheduling model is developed for the mine electricity–heat energy system, aiming to minimize the total scheduling cost comprising day-ahead scheduling cost, expected reserve adjustment cost, and CVaR. Finally, a case study on a typical mine electricity–heat energy system is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of operational cost reduction and system reliability. The results demonstrate a 1.4% reduction in the total operating cost, achieving a balance between economic efficiency and system security. Full article

Electricity distribution systems face increasing challenges due to demand growth, regulatory requirements, and the integration of distributed generation. In this context, distribution companies must make strategic and well-supported investment decisions, particularly in asset reinforcement actions such as reconductoring. This paper presents a multi-stage methodology to optimize reconductoring investments under load forecasting uncertainties. The approach combines a decomposition strategy with Monte Carlo simulation to capture demand variability. By discretizing a lognormal probability density function and selecting the largest loads in the network, the methodology balances computational feasibility with modeling accuracy. The optimization model employs exhaustive search techniques independently for each network branch, ensuring precise and consistent investment decisions. Tests conducted on the IEEE 123-bus feeder consider both operational and regulatory constraints from the Brazilian context. Results show that uncertainty-aware planning leads to a narrow investment range—between USD 55,108 and USD 66,504—highlighting the necessity of reconductoring regardless of demand scenarios. A comparative analysis of representative cases reveals consistent interventions, changes in conductor selection, and schedule adjustments based on load conditions. The proposed methodology enables flexible, cost-effective, and regulation-compliant investment planning, offering valuable insights for utilities seeking to enhance network reliability and performance while managing demand uncertainties. Full article

This theoretical study rigorously investigates how generative artificial intelligence reshapes decision-making in social entrepreneurship by modeling the opportunity search process through the lens of optimal stopping theory. Social entrepreneurs often face high uncertainty and resource constraints, requiring them to strategically balance the cost of continued searching with the chance of identifying socially impactful opportunities. This study develops a formal model that captures two core mechanisms of generative AI: reducing search costs and increasing the probability of mission-aligned opportunity success. The theoretical analysis yields three key findings. First, generative AI accelerates the optimal stopping point, allowing social entrepreneurs to act more quickly on high-potential opportunities by lowering cognitive and resource burdens. Second, the influence of increased success probability outweighs that of reduced search costs, underscoring the strategic importance of insight quality over efficiency in socially embedded contexts. Third, the benefits of generative AI are amplified in uncertain environments, where it helps navigate complexity and mitigate information asymmetry. These insights contribute to a deeper conceptual understanding of how intelligent technologies transform the cognitive and strategic dimensions of social entrepreneurship, and they offer empirically testable propositions for future research at the intersection of AI, innovation, and mission-driven opportunity pursuit. Full article

With the accelerating global transition toward sustainable energy systems, power grids with a high share of renewable energy face increasing challenges due to volatility and uncertainty, necessitating advanced flexibility resource planning and stability optimization strategies. This paper presents a comprehensive distribution network planning framework that coordinates and integrates multiple types of flexibility resources through joint optimization and network reconfiguration to enhance system adaptability and operational resilience. A novel virtual network coupling modeling approach is proposed to address topological constraints during network reconfiguration, ensuring radial operation while allowing rapid topology adjustments to isolate faults and restore power supply. Furthermore, to mitigate the uncertainty and fault risks associated with extreme weather events, a CVaR-based risk quantification framework is incorporated into a bi-level optimization model, effectively balancing investment costs and operational risks under uncertainty. In this model, the upper-level planning stage optimizes the siting and sizing of flexibility resources, while the lower-level operational stage coordinates real-time dispatch strategies through demand response, energy storage operation, and dynamic network reconfiguration. Finally, a hybrid SA-PSO algorithm combined with conic programming is employed to enhance computational efficiency while ensuring high solution quality for practical system scales. Case study analyses demonstrate that, compared to single-resource configurations, the proposed coordinated planning of multiple flexibility resources can significantly reduce the total system cost and markedly improve system resilience under fault conditions. Full article

In recent years, online streaming has encountered the challenge of retaining its user base. This study considers the role of transaction cost economics theory in consumer choices to continue subscribing. Participants respond to their top three streaming services, resulting in 797 responses, accounting for multiple selections by each respondent. Respondents could choose their top three services from a list of Netflix, Disney, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+. The study’s conclusions highlight the impact of uncertainty, a negative measure of streaming quality, on online subscription-based video streaming. Additionally, asset specificity, reflecting uniqueness and exclusive content, is found to be positively related to continuing a subscription. This research distinguishes itself by examining individuals who are already subscribers to provide insights and guidance through the lens of Transaction Cost Economics, to help marketing professionals seeking a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in the online streaming landscape. Full article

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) and Group Rapid Transit (GRT) are classes of fully automated public transport systems, where passengers can travel in small vehicles on an interconnected, grade-separated network of guideways, non-stop, from origin to destination. PRT and GRT are considered sustainable as they are low-emission and able to attract car drivers. The parameterized cost modeling framework developed in this paper has the advantage that profitability of different PRT/GRT systems can be rapidly verified in a transparent way and in function of a variety of relevant system parameters. This framework may contribute to a more transparent, rapid, and low-cost evaluation of PRT/GRT schemes for planning and decision-making purposes. The main innovation is the introduction of the “peak hour network saturation” S: the number of vehicles in circulation during peak hour divided by the maximum number of vehicles running at line speed with minimum time headways. It is an index that aggregates the main uncertainties in the planning process, namely the demand level relative to the supply level. Furthermore, a maximum S can be estimated for a PRT/GRT project, even without a detailed demand estimation. The profit per trip is analytically derived based on S and a series of more certain parameters, such as fares, capital and maintenance costs, daily demand curve, empty vehicle share, and physical properties of the system. To demonstrate the ability of the framework to analyze profitability in function of various parameters, we apply the methods to a single vehicle PRT, a platooned PRT, and a mixed PRT/GRT. The results show that PRT services with trip length proportional fares could be profitable already for $S>0.25$. The PRT capacity, profitability, and robustness to tripled infrastructure costs can be increased by vehicle platooning or GRT service during peak hours. Full article

Forest trees have emerged as a promising passive solution for mitigating low-frequency ground vibrations generated by railway operations, offering ecological and cost-effective advantages. This study proposes a three-dimensional semi-analytical method developed for evaluating the dynamic responses of the coupled track–ground–tree system. The thin-layer method is employed to derive an explicit Green’s function corresponding to a har-monic point load acting on a layered half-space, which is subsequently applied to couple the foundation with the track system. The forest trees are modeled as surface oscillators coupled on the ground surface to evaluate the characteristics of multiple scattered wavefields. The vibration attenuation capacity of forest trees in mitigating railway-induced ground vibrations is systematically investigated using the proposed method. In the direction perpendicular to the track on the ground surface, a graded array of forest trees with varying heights is capable of forming a broad mitigation frequency band below 80 Hz. Due to the interaction of wave fields excited by harmonic point loads at multiple locations, the attenuation performance of the tree system varies significantly across different positions on the surface. The influence of variability in tree height, radius, and density on system performance is subsequently examined using a Monte Carlo simulation. Despite the inherent randomness in tree characteristics, the forest still demonstrates notable attenuation effectiveness at frequencies below 80 Hz. Among the considered parameters, variations in tree height exert the most pronounced effect on the uncertainty of attenuation performance, followed sequentially by variations in density and radius. Full article

Produce supply chains play a critical role in ensuring fruits and vegetables reach consumers efficiently, affordably, and at optimal freshness. In recent decades, hub-and-spoke network models have emerged as valuable tools for optimizing sustainable cold food supply chains. Traditional optimization efforts typically focus on removing inefficiencies, minimizing lead times, refining inventory management, strengthening supplier relationships, and leveraging technological advancements for better visibility and control. However, the majority of models rely on deterministic approaches that overlook the inherent uncertainties of crop yields, which are further intensified by climate variability. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, along with shifting temperature patterns and extreme weather events, have a substantial effect on crop productivity and availability. Such uncertainties can prompt distributors to seek alternative sources, increasing costs due to supply chain reconfiguration. This research introduces a stochastic hub-and-spoke network optimization model specifically designed to minimize transportation expenses by determining optimal distribution routes that explicitly account for climate variability effects on crop yields. A use case involving a cold food supply chain (CFSC) was carried out using several weather scenarios based on climate models and real soil data for California. Strawberries were selected as a representative crop, given California’s leading role in strawberry production. Simulation results show that scenarios characterized by increased rainfall during growing seasons result in increased yields, allowing distributors to reduce transportation costs by sourcing from nearby farms. Conversely, scenarios with reduced rainfall and lower yields require sourcing from more distant locations, thereby increasing transportation costs. Nonetheless, supply chain configurations may vary depending on the choice of climate models or weather prediction sources, highlighting the importance of regularly updating scenario inputs to ensure robust planning. This tool aids decision-making by planning climate-resilient supply chains, enhancing preparedness and responsiveness to future climate-related disruptions. Full article

Introduction and Objectives: Risk-sharing agreements (RSAs) have emerged as a key strategy for financing high-cost medical technologies while ensuring financial sustainability. These payment mechanisms mitigate clinical and financial uncertainties, optimizing pricing and reimbursement decisions. Despite their widespread adoption globally, Latin America has reported limited implementation, particularly for high-cost medical devices. This study aims to share insights from designing RSAs in the form of Outcome Protection Programs (OPPs) for medical devices in Latin America from the perspective of a medical devices company. Methods: The report follows a structured approach, defining key OPP dimensions: payment base, access criteria, pricing schemes, risk assessment, and performance incentives. Risks were categorized as financial, clinical, and operational. The framework applied principles from prior models, emphasizing negotiation, program design, implementation, and evaluation. A multidisciplinary task force analyzed patient needs, provider motivations, and payer constraints to ensure alignment with health system priorities. Results: Over two semesters, a panel of seven experts from the manufacturer designed n = 105 innovative payment programs implemented in Argentina (n = 7), Brazil (n = 7), Colombia (n = 75), Mexico (n = 9), Panama (n = 4), and Puerto Rico (n = 3). The programs targeted eight high-burden conditions, including Coronary Artery Disease, atrial fibrillation, Heart Failure, and post-implantation arrhythmias, among others. Private providers accounted for 80% of experiences. Challenges include clinical inertia and operational complexities, necessitating structured training and monitoring mechanisms. Conclusions: Outcome Protection Programs offer a viable and practical risk-sharing approach to financing high-cost medical devices in Latin America. Their implementation requires careful stakeholder alignment, clear eligibility criteria and endpoints, and robust monitoring frameworks. These findings contribute to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable healthcare financing, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches in resource-constrained settings. Full article

Climate change is generally having a negative impact on forest health by inducing drought stress and favouring the spread of pest species, such as bark beetles. The terrestrial monitoring of bark beetle infestation is very time-consuming, especially in the early stages, and therefore not feasible for extensive areas, emphasising the need for a comprehensive approach based on remote sensing. Although numerous studies have researched the use of optical data for this task, radar data remains comparatively underexplored. Therefore, this study uses the weekly and cloud-free acquisitions of Sentinel-1 in the Bavarian Forest National Park. Time series analysis within a Multi-SAR framework using Random Forest enables the monitoring of moisture content loss and, consequently, the assessment of tree vitality, which is crucial for the detection of stress conditions conducive to bark beetle outbreaks. High accuracies are achieved in predicting future bark beetle infestation (R² of 0.83–0.89). These results demonstrate that forest vitality trends ranging from healthy to bark beetle-affected states can be mapped, supporting early intervention strategies. The standard deviation of 0.44 to 0.76 years indicates that the model deviates on average by half a year, mainly due to the uncertainty in the reference data. This temporal uncertainty is acceptable, as half a year provides a sufficient window to identify stressed forest areas and implement targeted management actions before bark beetle damage occurs. The successful application of this technique to extensive test sites in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia proves its transferability. For the first time, the results clearly demonstrate the expected relationship between radar backscatter expressed in the Kennaugh elements K₀ and K₁ and bark beetle infestation, thereby providing an opportunity for the continuous and cost-effective monitoring of forest health from space. Full article

With the increasing uncertainty introduced by the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources, traditional power dispatching methods face significant challenges, including severe frequency fluctuations, substantial forecasting deviations, and the difficulty of balancing economic efficiency with system stability. To address these issues, a deep learning-based dispatching framework is proposed, which integrates spatiotemporal feature extraction with a stability-aware mechanism. A joint forecasting model is constructed using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to handle multi-source inputs, while a reinforcement learning-based stability-aware scheduler is developed to manage dynamic system responses. In addition, an uncertainty modeling mechanism combining Dropout and Bayesian networks is incorporated to enhance dispatch robustness. Experiments conducted on real-world power grid and renewable generation datasets demonstrate that the proposed forecasting module achieves approximately a 2.1% improvement in accuracy compared with Autoformer and reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively, compared with traditional LSTM models. The achieved Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.82% outperforms all baseline models. In terms of scheduling performance, the proposed method reduces the total operating cost by 5.8% relative to Autoformer, decreases the frequency deviation from 0.158 Hz to 0.129 Hz, and increases the Critical Clearing Time (CCT) to 2.74 s, significantly enhancing dynamic system stability. Ablation studies reveal that removing the uncertainty modeling module increases the frequency deviation to 0.153 Hz and raises operational costs by approximately 6.9%, confirming the critical role of this module in maintaining robustness. Furthermore, under diverse load profiles and meteorological disturbances, the proposed method maintains stable forecasting accuracy and scheduling policy outputs, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities. Overall, the proposed approach achieves a well-balanced performance in terms of forecasting precision, system stability, and economic efficiency in power grids with high renewable energy penetration, indicating substantial potential for practical deployment and further research. Full article

We introduce I-fp convergence (ideal convergence in fuzzy paranormed spaces) and develop its core theory, including stability results and an equivalence to $I^{*}$-fp convergence under the AP Property. Building on this foundation, we design an adaptive base-stock policy for a single-echelon inventory system in which weekly demand is expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers while holiday or promotion weeks are treated as ideal-small anomalies. The policy is updated by a simple learning rule that can be implemented in any spreadsheet, requires no optimisation software, and remains insensitive to tuning choices. Extensive simulation confirms that the method simultaneously lowers cost, reduces average inventory and raises service level relative to a crisp benchmark, all while filtering sparse demand spikes in a principled way. These findings position I-fp convergence as a lightweight yet rigorous tool for blending linguistic uncertainty with anomaly-aware decision making in supply-chain analytics. Full article

Global supply chains often face uncertainties in production lead times, fluctuating exchange rates, and varying tariff regulations, all of which can significantly impact total profit. To address these challenges, this study formulates a multi-country supply chain problem as a Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP), integrating both currency variability and tariff levels. Using a Q-learning-based method (SMART), we explore three scenarios: (1) wide currency gaps under a uniform tariff, (2) narrowed currency gaps encouraging more local sourcing, and (3) distinct tariff structures that highlight how varying duties can reshape global fulfillment decisions. Beyond these baselines we analyze uncertainty-extended variants and targeted sensitivities (quantity discounts, tariff escalation, and the joint influence of inventory holding costs and tariff costs). Simulation results, accompanied by policy heatmaps and performance metrics, illustrate how small or large shifts in exchange rates and tariffs can alter sourcing strategies, transportation modes, and inventory management. A Deep Q-Network (DQN) is also applied to validate the Q-learning policy, demonstrating alignment with a more advanced neural model for moderate-scale problems. These findings underscore the adaptability of reinforcement learning in guiding practitioners and policymakers, especially under rapidly changing trade environments where exchange rate volatility and incremental tariff changes demand robust, data-driven decision-making. Full article

We introduce a novel portfolio optimization framework—Distributionally Robust Multivariate Stochastic Cone Order (DR-MSCO)—which integrates partial orders on random vectors with Wasserstein-metric ambiguity sets and adaptive cone structures to model multivariate investor preferences under distributional uncertainty. Grounded in measure theory and convex analysis, DR-MSCO employs data-driven cone selection calibrated to market regimes, along with coherent tail-risk operators that generalize Conditional Value-at-Risk to the multivariate setting. We derive a tractable second-order cone programming reformulation and demonstrate statistical consistency under empirical ambiguity sets. Empirically, we apply DR-MSCO to 23 Borsa Istanbul equities from 2021–2024, using a rolling estimation window and realistic transaction costs. Compared to classical mean–variance and standard distributionally robust benchmarks, DR-MSCO achieves higher overall and crisis-period Sharpe ratios (2.18 vs. 2.09 full sample; 0.95 vs. 0.69 during crises), reduces maximum drawdown by 10%, and yields endogenous diversification without exogenous constraints. Our results underscore the practical benefits of combining multivariate preference modeling with distributional robustness, offering institutional investors a tractable tool for resilient portfolio construction in volatile emerging markets. Full article