Search Results (522)

This study investigates whether national innovation systems contribute to sustainable well-being in emerging EU Member States by examining the long-run relationship between innovation performance and a multidimensional Quality of Life Index (QoLI). Using a balanced panel covering 2013–2024 for ten countries, the analysis integrates the Global Innovation Index, economic development dynamics, and demographic pressure to assess whether innovation-led progress translates into broad societal benefits. Panel cointegration tests confirm a stable long-run equilibrium among variables, while FMOLS estimation reveals three key results: (i) While the bivariate Pearson correlation indicates a positive association between innovation capacity and quality of life, the multivariate FMOLS estimation reveals a statistically significant negative long-run effect of innovation performance on QoLI, once economic development and demographic pressures are jointly controlled for. (ii) Economic development contributes positively to sustainable well-being, reinforcing the role of income-driven improvements in living conditions, and (iii) population size exerts a strong negative effect, reflecting demographic stress and unequal access to essential services. The findings indicate an innovation–well-being gap in which technological progress advances faster than the institutional and social mechanisms needed to ensure equitable diffusion. These results underscore the need to reorient innovation strategies toward inclusive growth, social accessibility, and environmental resilience so that innovation systems can effectively support sustainable well-being in emerging European economies. Full article

Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model cointegration framework, this paper examines the long- and short-run impact of domestic financial investment and natural resource rents on economic growth in Niger within the period 1990–2021. The Bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among variables: F = 4.646 > 3.79 at 5%. Long-run results indicate that increasing domestic investment by 1% raises real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita by approximately 0.30%, whereas 1% increase in natural resource rents leads to a reduction in growth by approximately 0.06%. At the same time, exports have a positive but very small effect, while imports and labor have negative long-run influences. Short-run dynamics further support a significant positive impact of domestic investment, at p = 0.0007, and a lagged effect of natural resources at p = 0.0308. The error-correction term is negative and significant, at −0.75, showing rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. Diagnostic tests confirm an absence of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, while stability is confirmed by CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. The findings reveal a dualism in the growth path of Niger in that domestic financial investments favor sustainable expansion, whereas resource-based revenues undermine the growth process in the long run and call for financial market deepening and improved governance of resource revenues. Full article

This study develops a comprehensive two-stage hybrid framework to forecast food prices in Türkiye, addressing inflation prediction challenges in volatile emerging markets where sample sizes are limited. In the first stage, systematic relationship analyses—comprising correlation, ARDL, cointegration, and Granger causality tests—identified ten key macroeconomic predictors from Central Bank datasets. In the second stage, we evaluated diverse predictive models, including XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, Ridge, LSTM, and SVR, using rice prices as a pilot case. A critical methodological contribution is the empirical comparison of feature engineering strategies; results demonstrate that traditional “smoothing” techniques dilute volatility signals, whereas the “Log-Return Transformation Strategy” strategy significantly improves accuracy. XGBoost emerged as the champion model, achieving a remarkable R² of 0.932 (MAE: 1.68 TL) on the test set. To strictly validate this performance against small-sample limitations, a Recursive Walk-Forward Validation was conducted, confirming the model’s robustness with a strong R² of 0.870 over a 31-month rolling simulation. Furthermore, Robust Rolling SHAP analysis identified Insurance and Transportation costs as primary drivers, evidencing a strong cost-push mechanism and inflation inertia. These findings integrate econometric rigor with machine learning transparency, offering resilient early warning tools for sustainable inflation management. Full article

Youth unemployment remains one of the most persistent and structurally sensitive challenges in emerging economies, particularly in environments characterized by macroeconomic volatility and frequent shocks. This study investigates the dynamics and forecasting performance of youth unemployment in Turkey by adopting a symmetry-based multivariate framework that explicitly contrasts equilibrium-oriented and asymmetric temporal behaviors. Using monthly data covering the period 2009–2024, youth unemployment is modeled jointly with key macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, overall unemployment, labor force participation, migration, exchange rates, and consumer confidence. The empirical strategy integrates traditional econometric models and modern machine learning approaches under a unified and leakage-free evaluation protocol. Stationarity and long-run properties of the series are examined using unit root tests and the Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach, followed by long-run coefficient estimation via FMOLS and DOLS. Forecasting performance is then compared across VARIMA, Prophet, and deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, and GRU), including both vanilla and hyperparameter-tuned specifications. The results reveal a clear performance hierarchy. VARIMA models, particularly the VARIMA (p = 2, q = 0) specification, consistently outperform all alternatives by a wide margin, achieving exceptionally low forecast errors. This finding indicates that youth unemployment in Türkiye is predominantly governed by symmetric co-movements and long-run equilibrium relationships among macroeconomic variables. Prophet and GRU models capture short-term and regime-sensitive fluctuations more flexibly, reflecting asymmetric temporal responses, but at the cost of higher forecast dispersion. In contrast, RNN and LSTM models exhibit limited generalization capability and are prone to overfitting in the small-sample macroeconomic context. As a result, this study positions the estimation of youth unemployment as both an econometric challenge and a symmetry-based analytical problem, offering new methodological and conceptual insights consistent with a fresh perspective. Full article

In the face of growing geopolitical instability, an important question remains whether ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance) indices are sensitive to geopolitical shocks and whether they can act as protective assets. The aim of the study was to empirically compare the STOXX Global ESG Leaders index with the response of the technology sector (Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)) to changes in the geopolitical risk index (GPR). Monthly data from 2019 to 2025 were used, along with a procedure including Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling, Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses, the Johansen test, and Granger causality tests. The results indicate a lack of significant relationships between GPR and the analyzed indices in the short and long term: no cointegration was found, IRF responses were weak and quickly faded, and Granger tests did not demonstrate the predictive power of GPR for the analyzed markets. VAR forecasts additionally confirmed the stable trend, unrelated to GPR fluctuations. The results suggest that ESG indices are not directly affected by geopolitical shocks, which indicate their relative resilience. A similar response was observed for technological indices. The results may have practical implications for investors interested in sustainable investing while looking for stable assets in periods of global uncertainty. The results may be important for institutional investors in terms of portfolio stabilization functions during periods of increased geopolitical uncertainty, and for policymakers and market regulators in the context of designing frameworks supporting the stability of ESG markets. Full article

While domestic green finance is widely recognized for its role in fostering green innovation and supporting climate change mitigation, the impact of international green finance (IGF) remains critical, particularly for developing economies where external finance inflows can catalyse transitions toward low-carbon development. This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of IGF on green innovation and further examines the influence of green innovation on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions across a panel of 76 developing countries from 2000 to 2019. Using second-generation panel cointegration and the vector error correction mechanism, our findings reveal a nonlinear long-run relationship between IGF and total innovation, indicating that IGF must exceed a threshold before significantly boosting total innovation in developing economies. We also identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between IGF and green innovation, in which the positive effects of IGF diminish beyond a certain point. Crucially, IGF emerges as a significant driver of CO₂ emissions reduction in both the short- and long-run. While total innovation is associated with increased emissions over the long term, green innovation contributes to a substantial and sustained decrease in CO₂ emissions. These results emphasize the need to design targeted policies that prioritize green innovation and scale up IGF to support sustainable growth in developing countries. Full article

This research examines the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in Cambodia with an ARDL cointegration analysis. The results demonstrate a long-run negative association between inflation and exchange rates, tax revenue, and broad money. In the short run, growth in tax revenues dampens inflation, while money supply growth boosts it. Looking at the results, we can infer that expansionary fiscal policy (in particular, tax effort) and prudent monetary policy can control Cambodia’s currency and inflation. Policymakers should take into account the system of relationships among these macroeconomic variables to design such policies, which can cause price stability and long-term growth in the economy. Full article

This study investigates the role of fossil fuel energy efficiency (FFE) in shaping environmental sustainability in Türkiye, with particular emphasis on the moderating effect of trade openness (TO) over the period 1982–2023. Environmental sustainability is proxied by the Load Capacity Factor (LCF), which integrates ecological footprint and biocapacity within the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) framework. Long-run relationships are examined using the Fourier ARDL bounds testing approach to account for structural breaks, while coefficient robustness is ensured through Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators. The empirical findings indicate that improvements in energy efficiency contribute positively to environmental sustainability, and this effect is significantly strengthened when energy efficiency interacts with trade openness (FFE × TO). This suggests that trade openness enhances the environmental gains of energy efficiency through technological spillovers. In addition, the results reveal an inverted-N-shaped nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability, indicating varying environmental pressures across different income levels. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrating trade policies with energy efficiency-oriented green technology strategies to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes in Türkiye. Full article

In recent years, Peru’s agricultural sector has expanded steadily despite recurrent external shocks and persistent volatility in global commodity markets. This sustained performance reflects the sector’s exposure to international price dynamics, a connection with direct implications for structural sustainability in a small, open and commodity-dependent economy. In this context, the study examines whether the terms of trade (TOT) sustain a stable long-run relationship with Peru’s agricultural GDP and assesses how this linkage shapes structural sustainability. The analysis applies Johansen’s cointegration method combined with a bivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), enabling the identification of common long-run trends and the estimation of adjustment speeds following external shocks. The results reveal a single cointegrating vector and a negative, highly significant error-correction term in the agricultural equation, indicating that the sector gradually corrects deviations from its long-run equilibrium. In contrast, the TOT display no meaningful adjustment mechanism, behaving as a weakly exogenous driver. Short-run effects of external shocks are small and statistically fragile, suggesting that quarterly disturbances are overshadowed by the longer-run correction process. Beyond quantifying these dynamics, the study offers a structural reading of how volatile imported inputs—fertilisers, fuels and agricultural machinery—influence agricultural performance, even when export prices are favourable. Overall, the findings underscore that long-term sustainability depends not only on global price trajectories but also on domestic productive capacities and gradual technological improvement, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies in an environment of persistent global volatility. Full article

This study examines the impact of health expenditure on economic growth in the BRICS countries during the period 2000–2021. Economic growth is measured by GDP per capita, while per capita health expenditure serves as the principal explanatory variable. Consistent with the framework of endogenous growth theory—which conceptualizes health as a form of human capital that enhances productivity—we additionally incorporate natural capital, education, and population share as control variables. Methodologically, the analysis employs panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence and estimates a dynamic panel ARDL model to assess both short- and long-term effects. To further validate the robustness of the model, additional explanatory variables relevant to endogenous growth theory are also evaluated. The results indicate that, in the long run, all explanatory variables exert a statistically significant influence on the economic growth of the BRICS countries. In the short run, however, only per capita health expenditure demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP per capita, whereas the other variables do not yield significant short-term effects. Full article

The transition toward renewable energy systems offers significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while also introducing new challenges in risk management and policy design. This study examines the long-term effects of renewable energy consumption, the risk factors associated with environmental taxation, and public expenditure on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across 27 European Union countries over a period of 22 years. Using panel data techniques—specifically the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators—the analysis identifies robust cointegrating relationships among environmental, fiscal, and energy variables. The joint null hypothesis (H₀) states that renewable energy consumption, environmental taxation, and public environmental expenditure do not exert a statistically significant negative long-run effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (i.e., none of these variables contributes to reducing GHG emissions in the long run). The findings show that renewable energy consumption and environmental taxes significantly and negatively affect GHG emissions, confirming their effectiveness as instruments for emission risk mitigation. Pollution taxes display the strongest elasticity among fiscal measures, indicating their pivotal role in carbon reduction strategies. Furthermore, public expenditure, particularly in waste management, meaningfully contributes to long-term emission reductions. These results highlight that a cohesive policy framework combining renewable energy development, targeted taxation, and strategic public investment can effectively minimize the environmental and economic risks associated with decarbonization. The study provides valuable empirical evidence for policymakers and risk analysts, underscoring the importance of integrated fiscal and energy policies in achieving sustainable climate risk management across the European Union Full article

This study investigates whether information and communication technology (ICT) constitutes a sustained driver of economic growth in four Central Asian economies—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—over the period 2000–2022. Using an extended endogenous growth framework, this study employs the following long-run growth model: economic growth is specified as a function of ICT development, gross capital formation, trade openness, human capital, government effectiveness, and inflation. A composite ICT index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Long-run relationships are examined using a panel cointegration approach, and long-run elasticities are estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR techniques. The results reveal that ICT development exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth in the long run, indicating limited technological absorptive capacity and insufficient institutional readiness in the region. In contrast, capital formation, trade openness, human capital, and government effectiveness positively and significantly promote growth, while inflation hampers economic performance. The findings suggest that ICT investment alone is insufficient for sustainable growth without complementary institutional strengthening, human capital development, digital skills enhancement, improved broadband quality, and governance reforms to increase the productive use of ICT. Full article

This study examines the impact of insurance market development on Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and economic growth in the European Union (EU-15) and Central and Eastern European (CEE-11) countries over the period 1996–2022. Long-run relationships are analysed using panel cointegration tests and Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG), and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimators. At the same time, causal links are assessed through the Granger non-causality test. Results show that in EU-15 countries, insurance development positively affects both environmental quality via reduced CO₂ emissions (elasticities between 0.2078 and 0.2860), and economic growth (0.109–0.829). In CEE-11 countries, a positive effect on growth (0.102–0.205) is confirmed, but no significant environmental impact is observed. The findings highlight the need for policies that support green insurance initiatives and investments in low-carbon transition projects, especially in the CEE-11 region. Full article

While extensive research has explored the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in BRICS nations, there remains a notable gap in understanding the influence of intangible factors, particularly soft power and nation branding. Historically, academic discourse has underemphasized the role of nation branding as a crucial emotional and perceptual component in investment decision-making processes. Consequently, governments in BRICS countries must enhance their national branding efforts to attract both capital and portfolio investment flows. The principal aim of this study was to jointly analyse the tangible and intangible determinants influencing FDI and FPI in BRICS from 1994 to 2024. Employing advanced econometric techniques, specifically the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) for estimation. This study makes a unique contribution to existing literature by examining the nexus between nation branding, FDI and FPI, thereby introducing a novel perspective on the factors driving investment in the BRICS context with an emphasis on non-tangible determinants. The findings indicate that nation branding, along with exchange rate stability, property rights, and financial market development, are significant positive determinants of FPI in these countries. Conversely, capital openness demonstrated a negative relationship with FPI. Moreover, the positive impact of nation branding on FDI within BRICS nations was reaffirmed. This study substantiates the critical role of nation branding as a pivotal driver for both FDI and FPI, emphasising its strategic importance in the economic landscape of BRICS countries. Full article

This study investigates how green bond issuance, energy use, renewable energy, and economic growth relate to per capita CO₂ emissions in 17 financially developed countries that are active in green bond markets over the period 2014–2023. We construct an annual panel for Australia, Austria, Canada, Mainland China, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and apply panel-corrected standard errors (PCSEs) together with Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). Diagnostic tests based on Pesaran’s CIPS unit root and Westerlund’s cointegration procedures indicate that the variables are I(1) and cointegrated, while Pesaran-type dependence and slope heterogeneity tests justify the use of robust panel methods. The PCSE results show that total energy consumption is the strongest factor associated with higher emissions, renewable energy consumption is consistently associated with lower emissions, economic growth is positively linked to emissions, and green bond issuance is associated with lower emissions, although the magnitude of this relationship is modest. MMQR estimates reveal that these relationships are heterogeneous across the CO₂ distribution. Green bonds are associated with lower emissions only in low-emission country–years, while this association becomes statistically weak at higher quantiles. Renewable energy is linked to lower emissions across all quantiles, with stronger associations in the lower part of the distribution, and the growth–emissions relationship weakens at the top, consistent with an Environmental Kuznets Curve pattern. These findings suggest that expanding renewables and improving the carbon content of energy use remain central for decarbonization, while green bonds may support emission reductions, particularly in cleaner, institutionally advanced economies. Full article