Search Results (180)

This study systematically evaluates the performance of GPM_IMERG and GSMaP_Gauge hourly precipitation products in typhoon rainfall over Mainland China. Using hourly gauge observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA)’s national basic meteorological stations as reference, 32 landfalling typhoons during 2021–2025 are analyzed. A multi-layered evaluation framework is established based on 50 km annular stratification from 0 to 500 km relative to typhoon centers, multiple statistical metrics, and dual thresholds for light rain and extreme precipitation. Results indicate systematic underestimation of typhoon rainfall by both products, with GSMaP_Gauge exhibiting more severe negative bias that intensifies nonlinearly with increasing rainfall intensity. Spatially, widespread overestimation occurs in North China, while underestimation dominates elsewhere, with large negative biases concentrated in high-observation regions. Monthly variations show predominantly negative deviations across most months, with GSMaP_Gauge demonstrating persistent negative anomalies except for sporadic positive outliers. Regarding precipitation detection capability, both products perform adequately for light rain, but their capability to capture extreme precipitation remains rather limited, as evidenced by sharply declining Critical Success Index (CSI) across all distance ranges and omission of over 60% extreme precipitation events. GPM_IMERG shows only sporadic high CSI values in the inner-core region during June and October. Error distributions exhibit significant spatiotemporal non-stationarity: errors attenuate markedly within 0–100 km of typhoon centers; seasonally, June and September show higher correlation coefficients but larger RMSE, whereas August presents lower correlation yet smaller errors; diurnally, the 0–50 km zone displays a “three-peak–two-valley” pattern with error maxima in the afternoon, early morning, and evening. In conclusion, both products estimate light typhoon precipitation with reasonable accuracy but still have considerable room for improvement in estimating heavy and extreme rainfall. Dynamic error models based on three-dimensional stratification of distance–season–diurnal phase, coupled with bias correction, are imperative before their application to hydrometeorological modeling, disaster investigation, and climate research. Full article

Hydroclimatic evidence is often carried too directly from global-scale attribution studies into local water-resources decisions, despite important differences among variables, methods, and spatial scales. This critical narrative review examines how climate variability, statistical trends, detection, attribution, non-stationarity, and risk should be distinguished when interpreting changes in precipitation, drought, streamflow, floods, groundwater, and water availability. The review compares global assessments, Mediterranean studies, and selected local examples to clarify what each line of evidence can—and cannot—support in adaptation planning. Human influence on global warming is unequivocal, and increases in atmospheric evaporative demand are well supported across many regions; anthropogenic influence has also been detected in several large-scale water-cycle responses. Historical changes in precipitation, river flooding, groundwater, and local drought remain spatially heterogeneous because internal variability interacts with circulation, storage, landscape properties, abstraction, infrastructure, and demand. Statistically significant trends do not by themselves establish hydrological importance or causation, while non-significant local trends do not imply an absence of operational risk. On this basis, the review proposes a scale-aware way of matching hydroclimatic evidence with system vulnerability and the degree of commitment involved in adaptation. Low-regret and adjustable measures can address current vulnerabilities under uncertainty, whereas costly, long-lived, or difficult-to-reverse interventions require stronger local evidence and stress testing across plausible futures. Full article

Reliable medium–long-term wind energy projection is essential in the planning, financing, and operation of large-scale offshore wind development. This study classified projection methods into three categories: statistical/empirical and climate-signal-driven methods, dynamical models with reanalysis and regional downscaling, and machine/deep learning and hybrid methods for bias correction, downscaling, and direct data-driven projection. Then, this study reviewed the technical framework, representative studies, and comparative strengths and limitations. The main finding was that the state of the art increasingly converged on “dynamical simulation plus statistical or machine learning correction”. Next, seven main bottlenecks, along with the countermeasures, were systematically presented: (i) difficult data quality control and insufficient observational representativeness, especially offshore; (ii) divergent, even contradictory, conclusions for the same region across data sources and research groups; (iii) large uncertainty in extrapolating 10 m winds to the continually rising turbine hub height; (iv) difficulty in quantifying and communicating non-stationarity and uncertainty to decision-makers; (v) engineering conversion errors from projected “wind resource” to deliverable “electricity”; (vi) systematic biases in the marine atmospheric boundary layer, strong winds, and extreme conditions; and (vii) unresolved reliability, interpretability, and out-of-distribution generalization of AI models. Correspondingly, three mutually reinforcing strands of countermeasures were proposed: first, strengthening the observational and benchmarking foundation through unified, open, quality-controlled observation networks with data-provenance standards and shared reference datasets and intercomparison protocols; second, advancing physics–data integration and uncertainty quantification through hybrid and physics-informed correction, regime-specific bias correction of boundary-layer and extreme-wind errors, and probabilistic frameworks that delivered and clearly communicated credible intervals; and third, closing the resource-to-electricity gap by embedding power-curve convolution, wake-loss modeling, and availability and technology derating into the projection workflow, with the aim of improving medium–long-term wind energy projection accuracy. Full article

The aim of this study was to estimate trends and multiscale variability in sea level along the southern coast of the Baltic Sea based on tide gauge and altimetry data, using Harmonic Analysis (HA) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). Particular consideration was given to the influence of time series length, data type, seafloor depth and distance from the coastline on the stability and consistency of the estimated trends and amplitudes. The results indicated that, for coastal stations, trends derived from tide gauge data averaged 2.2 mm/yr for the 1993–2024 period and 2.0 mm/yr for the 1951–2025 series, with lower estimation errors for series with an extended time range of data. Satellite altimetry data indicated a higher rate of sea level rise, averaging 4.3 mm/yr, and higher spatial consistency, particularly at virtual stations away from the coast. As the distance from the coastline increased, a more stable trend and a decrease in the influence of local hydrodynamic processes were observed. A comparison of methods demonstrated that Harmonic Analysis significantly improves the consistency of trends derived from altimetry and tide gauge data compared to classical linear regression—the correlation coefficient increased from 0.72–0.80 to 0.92–0.95. CWT confirmed the reliability of these results, while also allowing the identification of temporal modulation in cycle amplitudes and periods of increased signal nonstationarity. The results confirm that a correct interpretation of sea level changes requires that we take both long-term trends and natural variability across various timescales into account. The proposed approach provides a universal tool for analyzing nonstationary environmental signals. It can support risk assessment in coastal zones and the development of adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. Full article

The rainfed paddy farming system faces profound vulnerabilities due to daily climate non-stationarity. This mixed-methods study in Central Java analyses daily climate signals, total rice production, and household adaptation over 25 years (2001–2025). Moving beyond simple correlation, a Principal Component Regression model integrating five climate variables and three agronomic confounders reveals a profound climate–production decoupling. The composite climate index explains only 7.9% of total production variation, while non-climate factors account for 92.1%. Physical stability is maintained through asymmetric temporal scheduling and a distinct hierarchy of responses, employing active, planned adaptations alongside passive, reactive coping. However, quantitative household evaluation reveals this tonnage stability incurs severe hidden costs; the titip gabah post-harvest system maintains a high Yield Stability Index (0.93) but yields a negative Return on Storage (−7.15%), functioning as a risk-mitigation buffer rather than a profit-maximising tool. Furthermore, climate anomalies drive the progressive alienation of traditional ethnoclimatological knowledge, forcing a cognitive shift toward hybridised decision-making. To prevent passive coping from evolving into systemic maladaptation, we propose a stratified policy framework ranging from village-level knowledge integration and Subdistrict daily risk warnings to regency-level subsidies targeted at smallholders (<0.5 ha). Full article

The changing climate raises the level of hydroclimatic non-stationarity and export of pollutants at the event scale in agricultural, mixed-land-use, and urbanizing watersheds. In this review, there is an emphasis on nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment; however, selective references are made to pesticides, pathogens, microplastics, and wet-weather mixed-source processes when characteristics similar to event-driven transport, threshold exceedance, and adaptive control are identified. Drawing on a structured literature search of studies published from 2000 to December 2025, this narrative review synthesizes evidence from 138 selected references on how extreme rainfall, drought–rewetting, warming, and freeze–thaw processes alter source activation, hydrological connectivity, biogeochemical processing, and receiving-water hazards. Our resilience assessment is based on resistance, recovery, robustness, and persistence, which we interpret using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is shown that standard average-load and fixed-baseline measurements may not detect short pollution pulses, cross-scenario failure, and long-term drift; operational measurement must thus involve event thresholds, recovery trajectories, tail-risk measures, and propagation of uncertainty. Extrapolation, interpretability, data demand, and applicability for data-sparse basins are used to compare process-based, data-driven, and hybrid models. Adaptation options are associated with measurable triggers as part of a monitoring–trigger–action cycle with location-specific instructions for monsoon-agricultural, cold-region, semi-arid and urban systems. The novel aspect of this framework is the integration of mechanism-based evidence, quantitative resilience indicators, model uncertainty, and adaptive governance into one decision-focused workflow. This sustainability-oriented framework advances long-term watershed management by linking water-quality protection and resilient development. Full article

Accurate building energy prediction is essential for climate-resilient design, retrofit planning, and long-term energy management. However, most machine-learning models are developed using historical weather data, implicitly assuming that future climatic conditions will remain similar to the past. This assumption is increasingly challenged by climate change, which is altering temperature patterns, solar exposure, humidity levels, and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study presents a climate-scenario-aware artificial intelligence framework that integrates future climate conditions into simulation-driven machine-learning development and validation. Using a UK hotel case study based on the Hilton Watford context, future weather scenarios were derived from CIBSE datasets informed by UKCP18 and CMIP6 climate projections. EnergyPlus version 23.2.0 simulations were performed under baseline, moderate-warming, high-warming, and heatwave stress-test scenarios to generate hourly building energy data. Random Forest, XGBoost 2.1.1, Multiple Linear Regression, and Multi-Layer Perceptron models were trained and evaluated using both Historical-Only and Climate-Scenario-Aware training approaches. Results show that models trained exclusively on historical conditions maintain high present-day accuracy but experience notable performance degradation under future climate scenarios, particularly for cooling demand and peak-load prediction. In contrast, Climate-Scenario-Aware models demonstrated improved robustness, reduced prediction errors, and greater physical consistency during extreme heatwave conditions while maintaining comparable performance under current climatic conditions. The proposed framework provides a reproducible methodology for developing climate-resilient AI models for building energy prediction and highlights the importance of incorporating future climate scenarios into model training and validation. The findings suggest that climate stress-testing should become a standard component of AI-based building energy analytics, digital twins, and long-term energy planning tools. Full article

Accurate daily runoff prediction is essential for flood control, reservoir operation, and scientific water resources management. However, runoff processes are increasingly affected by climate change and human activities, leading to pronounced nonlinearity and nonstationarity that limit the performance of single data-driven models. This study aims to improve the reliability and hydrological credibility of daily runoff prediction by systematically evaluating recurrent neural network (RNN) structures and explicitly modeling prediction residuals. Three commonly used RNN architectures—long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM)—are systematically compared for daily runoff prediction in the Andi Reservoir watershed under identical hydrometeorological conditions. Based on the comparative results, BiLSTM is selected as the base model to capture dominant temporal dependencies. To further address systematic prediction errors under complex hydrological conditions, a residual-learning framework is constructed by integrating BiLSTM with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), in which XGBoost is employed to model and correct the nonlinear residuals of BiLSTM predictions. In addition, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method is applied to interpret the contributions of input variables and to examine the learning mechanisms of both the base model and the residual-correction stage. Results indicate that BiLSTM performs better than LSTM and GRU for daily runoff prediction and that residual correction using XGBoost further enhances prediction accuracy and robustness, particularly under nonstationary conditions and peak-flow scenarios. The contribution of this study lies in providing a systematic modeling framework that combines model comparison, residual learning, and interpretability analysis to support more reliable daily runoff prediction in complex watersheds. Full article

Climate change introduces severe non-stationarity and high-frequency noise into hydro-meteorological data. This noise degrades the predictive accuracy of traditional data-driven streamflow models. We propose a physics-inspired data enhancement framework coupling the CEEMDAN-based Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) with Stochastic Resonance (SR). We applied this framework to the Lanzhou section of the upper Yellow River. HHT isolates the dominant characteristic frequency of the basin’s streamflow system at 0.0026 cycles/day. Using this frequency as a target, we constructed a Bayesian-optimized SR system. The system converts the energy of high-frequency meteorological noise into low-frequency periodic components, facilitating frequency alignment between the meteorological inputs and the hydrological response. We evaluated the SR-enhanced meteorological inputs across three machine learning architectures: Random Forest, XGBoost, and LSTM. All algorithms demonstrated an improved performance. The SR-LSTM model achieved a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.91 ± 0.03. This represents a 19% improvement over the baseline LSTM score of 0.79 ± 0.02. The SR-LSTM demonstrated robust accuracy during extreme hydrological events; it achieved a high-flow NSE of 0.89 and effectively mitigated the common peak-underestimation issue by constraining relative peak magnitude errors to approximately −5.08%. Overall, this study presents a practical data enhancement approach for streamflow forecasting under complex climatic conditions. Full article

Flood-induced scour remains one of the leading causes of bridge failure, yet the chain linking flood hazard to bridge decisions is still commonly treated as a sequence of disconnected tasks. This review examines that chain using uncertainty as a unifying interpretive framework, synthesizing the recent literature on non-stationary flood hazard assessment, bridge-scale hydraulics, scour processes and predictive models, scour monitoring, monitoring-informed forecasting, structural vulnerability, and risk-informed decision-making. The review synthesizes the state of the art across all these stages of the chain, highlighting how the dominant uncertainty changes along it: climate and hydrologic variability upstream; model-form, sediment, and parameter uncertainty in scour prediction; measurement noise and inverse-inference uncertainty in monitoring; and threshold and consequence uncertainty in closure, retrofit, and network-level decisions. Although major advances have been achieved in probabilistic modelling, machine learning, hybrid physics-informed methods, and multimodal sensing, most published frameworks still transfer deterministic outputs from one stage to the next. As a result, uncertainty is rarely propagated consistently to the decision level. The main value of this review lies in making the chain’s weak interfaces explicit, in showing how uncertainty propagation can serve as a unifying framework across otherwise disconnected literatures, and in identifying which methodological directions are most promising for connecting prediction, monitoring, and decision support into a coherent end-to-end probabilistic chain supporting climate-resilient bridge management. Full article

Qinghai Lake, the largest endorheic saline lake in China, has undergone a pronounced hydrological regime shift from a multi-decadal decline to a rapid post-2004 recovery, reflecting strong hydroclimatic non-stationarity in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper supplements the current water level and lake area status of Qinghai Lake to provide basic background for future prediction. Reliable forecasting of such climate sensitive lake systems remains difficult because conventional statistical models often fail to capture non-linear fluctuations, whereas standalone deep learning models may overlook long-term deterministic evolution. To address this challenge, we developed a serial decomposition GeoAI framework that integrates autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for non-stationary water level forecasting. Using annual water level observations from 1960 to 2025, the ARIMA component was first used to extract the low-frequency deterministic trend, after which the CNN-LSTM module reconstructed the nonlinear residual variability. The model was trained on the 1960–2012 period and validated over 2013–2025, which represents the most dynamic expansion stage of Qinghai Lake. The hybrid framework outperformed the benchmark models, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.2033 m, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.1727 m, and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0413 m² during validation. The decomposition strategy effectively reduced phase lag and amplitude attenuation, improving both predictive accuracy and process interpretability. Multi-step forecasting for 2026–2056 suggests that Qinghai Lake will continue to rise, reaching approximately 3204.08 m by 2056, although the growth rate is projected to slow as negative hydrological feedback strengthen. By explicitly separating deterministic climate scale signals from nonlinear short-term variability, the proposed framework provides a robust and transferable geoinformation based tool for forecasting water level dynamics and supporting adaptive management in climate sensitive, data scarce lake basins. Full article

This study investigates the hydroclimatic impacts of climate change on the Göynük Stream Basin, a snow-fed tributary within the Euphrates River Basin, utilizing flow, precipitation, and temperature data from 1975 to 2022. The Göynük Stream Basin is characterized by high-altitude, harsh continental conditions, with its flow regime heavily influenced by snowmelt, rendering it particularly sensitive to climate change. Employing a suite of trend analysis methods, including Mann–Kendall, Spearman Rho, Theil–Sen, Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), the research evaluated annual and seasonal data from one stream and four meteorological stations across multiple significance levels (90%, 95%, 99%). Unlike conventional hydroclimatic studies based solely on monotonic trend detection, this study integrates classical trend tests, innovative trend approaches, temporal regime-based analysis (RAPS), and machine learning techniques within a unified assessment framework to evaluate both hydroclimatic variability and runoff predictability under climate change conditions. Key findings indicate a significant decline in annual flow rates by approximately 9.37%, with a notable decrease in maximum flow rates evidenced by a negative trend slope of −0.2726 m³/s/year. While precipitation trends were generally decreasing, temperature data exhibited significant increases, especially during winter and spring. Seasonal analysis revealed substantial flow reductions in summer and autumn, coupled with an earlier timing of the annual maximum flow, shifting from mid-May to late March/early April, suggesting earlier snowmelt. The study concludes that the Göynük Stream Basin is experiencing increasing hydroclimatic pressures attributable to climate change. These insights are crucial for water resource management and serve as a guideline for similar snow-fed sub-basins within the broader Euphrates River Basin. Furthermore, the integration of a machine learning approach, utilizing meteorological and seasonal data, demonstrated strong monthly runoff prediction capabilities with NRMSE of 4.11% and R² equal to 0.951. Feature importance analysis highlighted seasonality and temperature as primary predictive factors. However, a marked decline in model accuracy after 2011 was observed, indicating a non-stationarity in the hydroclimatic system, likely driven by climate change impacts and underscoring the need for adaptive management strategies. Full article

Cities in climatic transition zones face coupled radiative and evaporative stresses, and their carbon emission mechanisms differ significantly from those in humid regions. Taking Xi’an, a typical megacity in the transition zone, as a case study, this research utilises a 500 m × 500 m grid to integrate multi-source data for carbon emission accounting. By applying spatial autocorrelation and the Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model, this study examines the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions and the mechanisms through which urban planning influences them. The results indicate that carbon emissions in Xi’an exhibit a “core–periphery” agglomeration pattern, with commercial land use exhibiting the highest emission intensity. Carbon emissions and land surface temperature are spatially coupled, consistent with a hypothesised positive feedback loop of the “dry heat island” effect. Morphological factors exhibit spatial non-stationarity: floor area ratio is positively associated with emissions in the old city centre, whereas mutual shading among super-high-rise buildings in the High-Tech Zone coincides with a weaker effect. Building density shows a positive association only where ventilation is limited. Land use mix and blue–green spaces show non-linear negative associations with emissions, with higher marginal benefits in arid–hot environments. This study proposes carbon reduction strategies for the renewal of old urban areas, business cores, and new ecological districts, providing empirical evidence and decision-making references for low-carbon spatial planning in cities within the climatic transition zone. Full article

Forests, as the largest terrestrial carbon sink, play a critical role in mitigating climate change. Accurately estimating forest vegetation carbon storage and identifying its drivers are essential for evaluating regional carbon sink functions and supporting carbon neutrality policies. However, long-term carbon storage estimation that simultaneously captures spatial non-stationarity and separately quantifies aboveground and belowground carbon pools at the provincial scale remains limited, and the spatial differentiation drivers and the temporal change drivers of carbon storage have rarely been disentangled through pixel-wise attribution. This study aimed to estimate forest vegetation carbon storage in Jiangxi Province, China, from 1990 to 2024, and to separately quantify the drivers of its spatial differentiation and the contributions of climate change and human activities to its temporal changes. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was constructed using field measurements and multi-source remote sensing data; the geographical detector and partial correlation analysis were applied for spatial differentiation attribution, and pixel-wise residual analysis was used for temporal change attribution. The results showed that: (1) total carbon storage fluctuated between 553.95 and 839.78 Tg C over the 35-year period and exhibited a significant increasing trend, with a cumulative carbon sequestration of approximately 122 Tg C; (2) the belowground carbon pool increased disproportionately (net gain 79.32 Tg C) compared with the aboveground pool (42.20 Tg C); (3) precipitation and solar radiation were the dominant drivers of the spatial differentiation of carbon storage; and (4) climate change contributed approximately 60% and human activities approximately 43% to the temporal changes in total carbon storage. These findings provide a scientific basis for delineating forest carbon sink conservation zones and formulating differentiated forest management strategies in subtropical China. Full article