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Search Results (343)

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Keywords = boundary layer meteorology

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16 pages, 4557 KiB  
Article
A Dual-Wavelength Lidar Boundary Layer Height Detection Fusion Method and Case Analysis
by Zhiyuan Fang, Shu Li, Hao Yang and Zhiqiang Kuang
Photonics 2025, 12(8), 741; https://doi.org/10.3390/photonics12080741 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 213
Abstract
Accurate detection of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is important for weather forecasting, urban air quality monitoring, and agricultural and ecological protection. In this study, we propose a new method for enhancing ABL height detection accuracy by integrating multi-channel polarized lidar signals at [...] Read more.
Accurate detection of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is important for weather forecasting, urban air quality monitoring, and agricultural and ecological protection. In this study, we propose a new method for enhancing ABL height detection accuracy by integrating multi-channel polarized lidar signals at 355 nm and 532 nm wavelengths. Radiosonde observations and ERA5 reanalysis are used to validate the lidar-derived results. By calculating the gradients of signals of different wavelengths and weighted fusion, the position of the top of the boundary layer is identified, and corresponding weights are assigned to signals of different wavelengths according to the signal-to-noise ratio of the signals to obtain a more accurate atmospheric boundary layer height. This method can effectively mitigate the influence of noise and provides more stable and accurate ABL height estimates, particularly under complex aerosol conditions. Three case studies of ABL height detection over the Beijing region demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed method. The fused ABLHs were found to be consistent with the sounding data and ERA5. This research offers a robust approach to enhancing ABL height detection and provides valuable data support for meteorological studies, pollution monitoring, and environmental protection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Optical Sensing Technologies, Devices and Their Data Applications)
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17 pages, 5264 KiB  
Communication
Some Interesting Observations of Cross-Mountain East-to-Southeasterly Flow at Hong Kong International Airport and Their Numerical Simulations
by Pak-Wai Chan, Ping Cheung, Kai-Kwong Lai, Jie-Lan Xie and Yan-Yu Leung
Atmosphere 2025, 16(7), 810; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070810 - 1 Jul 2025
Viewed by 215
Abstract
With the availability of more ground-based remote-sensing meteorological equipment at Hong Kong International Airport, many more interesting features of terrain-disrupted airflow have been observed, such as the applications of short-range Doppler LIDAR. This paper documents a number of new features observed at the [...] Read more.
With the availability of more ground-based remote-sensing meteorological equipment at Hong Kong International Airport, many more interesting features of terrain-disrupted airflow have been observed, such as the applications of short-range Doppler LIDAR. This paper documents a number of new features observed at the airport area, such as the hydraulic jump-like feature, vortex, and extensive mountain wake/reverse flow. The technical feasibility of using a numerical resolution weather prediction model to simulate such features is also explored. It is found that the presently available input data and numerical model may not be able to capture the fine features of the atmospheric boundary layer, and thus they are not very successful in reproducing many small-scale terrain-disrupted airflow features downstream of an isolated hill. On the other hand, more larger-scale terrain-disrupted flow features may be better captured, but there are still limitations with the available turbulence parameterization schemes. This paper aims at documenting the newly observed flow features at the Hong Kong International Airport, enhancing the understanding of low-level windshear, and evaluating the outputs of numerical resolution simulations for reproducing such observed features and its technical feasibility on short-term forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling)
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16 pages, 24903 KiB  
Technical Note
A Shipborne Doppler Lidar Investigation of the Winter Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Southeastern China’s Coastal Waters
by Xiaoquan Song, Wenchao Lian, Fuyou Wang, Ping Jiang and Jie Wang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(13), 2161; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17132161 - 24 Jun 2025
Viewed by 360
Abstract
The Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL), as a critical component of Earth’s climate system, governs the exchange of matter and energy between the ocean surface and the lower atmosphere. This study presents shipborne Doppler lidar observations conducted during 12 January to 3 February [...] Read more.
The Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL), as a critical component of Earth’s climate system, governs the exchange of matter and energy between the ocean surface and the lower atmosphere. This study presents shipborne Doppler lidar observations conducted during 12 January to 3 February 2024, along the southeastern Chinese coast. Employing a Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar (CDWL) system onboard the R/V “Yuezhanyu” research vessel, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of MABL characteristics through integration with ERA5 reanalysis data. The key findings reveal a significant positive correlation between MABL height and surface sensible heat flux in winter, underscoring the dominant role of sensible heat flux in boundary layer development. Through the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the ERA5 regional boundary layer height, sensible heat flux, and sea level pressure, we demonstrate MABL height over the coastal seas typically exceeds the corresponding terrestrial atmospheric boundary layer height and exhibits weak diurnal variation. The CDWL observations highlight complex wind field dynamics influenced by synoptic conditions and maritime zones. Compared to onshore regions, the MABL over offshore areas further away from land has lower wind shear changes and a more uniform wind field. Notably, the terrain of Taiwan, China, induces significant low-level jet formations within the MABL. Low-level jets and low boundary layer height promote the pollution episode observed by CDWL. This research provides new insights into MABL dynamics over East Asian marginal seas, with implications for improving boundary layer parameterization in regional climate models and advancing our understanding of coastal meteorological processes. Full article
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21 pages, 4464 KiB  
Article
Gradient-Specific Park Cooling Mechanisms for Sustainable Urban Heat Mitigation: A Multi-Method Synthesis of Causal Inference, Machine Learning and Geographical Detector
by Bohua Ling, Jiani Huang and Chengtao Luo
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 5800; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17135800 - 24 Jun 2025
Viewed by 414
Abstract
Parks play a crucial role in mitigating urban heat island effects, a key challenge for urban sustainability. Park cooling intensity (PCI) mechanisms across varying canopy-layer urban heat island (CUHI) gradients remain underexplored, particularly regarding interactions with meteorological, topographical, and socio-economic factors. According to [...] Read more.
Parks play a crucial role in mitigating urban heat island effects, a key challenge for urban sustainability. Park cooling intensity (PCI) mechanisms across varying canopy-layer urban heat island (CUHI) gradients remain underexplored, particularly regarding interactions with meteorological, topographical, and socio-economic factors. According to the urban-suburban air temperature difference, this study classified the city into non-, weak, and strong CUHI regions. We integrated causal inference, machine learning and a geographical detector (Geodetector) to model and interpret PCI dynamics across CUHI gradients. The results reveal that surrounding impervious surface coverage is a universal driver of PCI by enhancing thermal contrast at park boundaries. However, the dominant drivers of PCI varied significantly across CUHI gradients. In non-CUHI regions, surrounding imperviousness dominated PCI and exhibited bilaterally enhanced interaction with intra-park patch density. Weak CUHI regions relied on intra-park green coverage with nonlinear synergies between water body proportion and park area. Strong CUHI regions involved systemic urban fabric influences mediated by surrounding imperviousness, evidenced by a validated causal network. Crucially, causal inference reduces model complexity by decreasing predictor counts by 79%, 25% and 71% in non-, weak and strong CUHI regions, respectively, while maintaining comparable accuracy to full-factor models. This outcome demonstrates the efficacy of causal inference in eliminating collinear metrics and spurious correlations from traditional feature selection, ensuring retained predictors reside within causal pathways and support process-based interpretability. Our study highlights the need for context-adaptive cooling strategies and underscores the value of integrating causal–statistical approaches. This framework provides actionable insights for designing climate-resilient blue–green spaces, advancing urban sustainability goals. Future research should prioritize translating causal diagnostics into scalable strategies for sustainable urban planning. Full article
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23 pages, 12403 KiB  
Article
A Comprehensive Ensemble Model for Marine Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Prediction in Meteorologically Sparse and Complex Regions: A Case Study in the South China Sea
by Yehui Chen, Tao Luo, Gang Sun, Wenyue Zhu, Qing Liu, Ying Liu, Xiaomei Jin and Ningquan Weng
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(12), 2046; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17122046 - 13 Jun 2025
Viewed by 634
Abstract
Marine atmospheric boundary-layer height (MABLH) is crucial for ocean heat, momentum, and substance transfer, affecting ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems. Due to the unique geographical location of the South China Sea (SCS), coupled with its complex atmospheric environment and sparse ground-based observation stations, [...] Read more.
Marine atmospheric boundary-layer height (MABLH) is crucial for ocean heat, momentum, and substance transfer, affecting ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems. Due to the unique geographical location of the South China Sea (SCS), coupled with its complex atmospheric environment and sparse ground-based observation stations, accurately determining the MABLH remains challenging. Coherent Doppler wind lidar (CDWL), as a laser-based active remote sensing technology, provides high-resolution wind profiling by transmitting pulsed laser beams and analyzing backscattered signals from atmospheric aerosols. In this study, we developed a stacking optimal ensemble model (SOEM) to estimate MABLH in the vicinity of the site by integrating CDWL measurements from a representative SCS site with ERA5 (fifth-generation reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data from December 2019 to May 2021. Based on the categorization of the total cloud cover data into weather conditions such as clear/slightly cloudy, cloudy/transitional, and overcast/rainy, the SOEM demonstrates enhanced performance with an average mean absolute percentage error of 3.7%, significantly lower than the planetary boundary-layer-height products of ERA5. The SOEM outperformed random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and histogram-based gradient boosting models, achieving a robustness coefficient (R2) of 0.95 and the lowest mean absolute error of 32 m under the clear/slightly cloudy condition. The validation conducted in the coastal city of Qingdao further confirmed the superiority of the SOEM in resolving meteorological heterogeneity. The predictions of the SOEM aligned well with CDWL observations during Typhoon Sinlaku (2020), capturing dynamic disturbances in MABLH. Overall, the SOEM provides a precise approach for estimating convective boundary-layer height, supporting marine meteorology, onshore wind power, and coastal protection applications. Full article
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16 pages, 2965 KiB  
Article
Comparison of Selected Ensemble Supervised Learning Algorithms Used for Meteorological Normalisation of Particulate Matter (PM10)
by Karolina Gora and Mateusz Rzeszutek
Sustainability 2025, 17(12), 5274; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125274 - 7 Jun 2025
Viewed by 517
Abstract
Air pollution, particularly PM10 particulate matter, poses significant health risks related to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as well as cancer. Accurate identification of PM10 reduction factors is therefore essential for developing effective sustainable development strategies. According to the current state of [...] Read more.
Air pollution, particularly PM10 particulate matter, poses significant health risks related to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases as well as cancer. Accurate identification of PM10 reduction factors is therefore essential for developing effective sustainable development strategies. According to the current state of knowledge, machine learning methods are most frequently employed for this purpose due to their superior performance compared to classical statistical approaches. This study evaluated the performance of three machine learning algorithms—Decision Tree (CART), Random Forest, and Cubist Rule—in predicting PM10 concentrations and estimating long-term trends following meteorological normalisation. The research focused on Tarnów, Poland (2010–2022), with comprehensive consideration of meteorological variability. The results demonstrated superior accuracy for the Random Forest and Cubist models (R2 ~0.88–0.89, RMSE ~14 μg/m3) compared to CART (RMSE 19.96 μg/m3). Air temperature and boundary layer height emerged as the most significant predictive variables across all algorithms. The Cubist algorithm proved particularly effective in detecting the impact of policy interventions, making it valuable for air quality trend analysis. While the study confirmed a statistically significant annual decrease in PM10 concentrations (0.83–1.03 μg/m3), pollution levels still exceeded both the updated EU air quality standards from 2024 (Directive (EU) 2024/2881), which will come into force in 2030, and the more stringent WHO guidelines from 2021. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Pollution Prevention, Mitigation and Sustainability)
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19 pages, 3892 KiB  
Article
Impact of Fengyun-4A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data Assimilation on PM2.5 Simulation
by Kaiqiang Gu, Jinyan Wang, Shixiang Su, Jiangtao Zhu, Yu Zhang, Feifan Bian and Yi Yang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(11), 1952; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111952 - 5 Jun 2025
Viewed by 357
Abstract
PM2.5 pollution poses significant risks to human health and the environment, underscoring the importance of accurate PM2.5 simulation. This study simulated a representative PM2.5 pollution event using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem), incorporating the assimilation [...] Read more.
PM2.5 pollution poses significant risks to human health and the environment, underscoring the importance of accurate PM2.5 simulation. This study simulated a representative PM2.5 pollution event using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem), incorporating the assimilation of infrared atmospheric motion vector (AMV) data from the Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) satellite. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to examine the meteorological characteristics of the event and their influence on PM2.5 concentration simulations. The results demonstrate that the assimilation of FY-4A infrared AMV data significantly enhanced the simulation performance of meteorological variables, particularly improving the wind field and capturing local and small-scale wind variations. Moreover, PM2.5 concentrations simulated with AMV assimilation showed improved spatial and temporal agreement with ground-based observations, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 8.2% and the mean bias (MB) by 15.2 µg/m3 relative to the control (CTL) experiment. In addition to regional improvements, the assimilation notably enhanced PM2.5 simulation accuracy in severely polluted cities, such as Tangshan and Tianjin. Mechanistic analysis revealed that low wind speeds and weak atmospheric divergence restricted pollutant dispersion, resulting in higher near-surface concentrations. This was exacerbated by cooler nighttime temperatures and a lower planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). These findings underscore the utility of assimilating satellite-derived wind products to enhance regional air quality modeling and forecasting accuracy. This study highlights the potential of FY-4A infrared AMV data in improving regional pollution simulations, offering scientific support for the application of next-generation Chinese geostationary satellite data in numerical air quality forecasting. Full article
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26 pages, 12064 KiB  
Article
Turbulent Flow over a Rough Surface in a Wind Tunnel
by Raúl Sánchez-García and Roberto Gómez-Martínez
Wind 2025, 5(2), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/wind5020013 - 28 May 2025
Viewed by 319
Abstract
The estimation of the aerodynamic characteristics of a rough surface (zero displacement plane d0 and aerodynamic roughness length z0) is important in the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer wind in a wind tunnel, since they are parameters involved in various [...] Read more.
The estimation of the aerodynamic characteristics of a rough surface (zero displacement plane d0 and aerodynamic roughness length z0) is important in the simulation of atmospheric boundary layer wind in a wind tunnel, since they are parameters involved in various problems of meteorological and wind engineering activities. In this study, morphometric methods were used to present parameterizations of d0 and z0 as functions of roughness and areal density based on wind tunnel measurements of airflow over a rough surface. Vertical profiles of mean wind speed, turbulence intensity, boundary layer depth, and spectral density functions are presented. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Fluid Mechanics Research in Wind Engineering)
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37 pages, 29088 KiB  
Article
Climatology of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Using ERA5: Spatio-Temporal Variations and Controlling Factors
by Shih-Sian Yang and Chen-Jeih Pan
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 573; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050573 - 10 May 2025
Viewed by 766
Abstract
Geophysical processes within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) play important roles in the energy, momentum, and particle exchanges in the lower atmosphere. The height of the ABL top (ABL height; ABLH) decides the depth of these ABL processes. To better understand the spatio-temporal [...] Read more.
Geophysical processes within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) play important roles in the energy, momentum, and particle exchanges in the lower atmosphere. The height of the ABL top (ABL height; ABLH) decides the depth of these ABL processes. To better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of the ABLH, the present study analyzed 45 years of global ABLH data retrieved from ERA5, in which the ABLH was defined using the bulk Richardson number, and the climatology of the ABLH was investigated. Further, the relationship between the ABLH and meteorological parameters was examined. High near-surface air temperature represents fair weather conditions that favor the ABL evolution, causing a high ABLH. In contrast, high precipitation represents bad weather conditions that restrain the ABL evolution, causing a low ABLH. The present study also studied the effects of synoptic weather systems, ocean–atmosphere interactions, terrains, and monsoon systems on the ABLH. Multiple controlling factors, including synoptic systems, cold ocean currents, terrain, and monsoons, influence the weather conditions and the complicated spatio-temporal distribution of the ABLH. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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20 pages, 3349 KiB  
Article
Multi-Level Particle System Modeling Algorithm with WRF
by Julong Chen, Bin Wang, Rundong Gan, Xuepeng Mou, Shiping Yang and Ling Tan
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 571; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050571 - 9 May 2025
Viewed by 346
Abstract
In the fields of meteorological simulation and computer graphics, precise simulation of clouds has been a recent research hotspot. The existing cloud modeling methods often ignore the differentiated characteristics of cloud layers at different heights, and suffer from high computational costs under long-range [...] Read more.
In the fields of meteorological simulation and computer graphics, precise simulation of clouds has been a recent research hotspot. The existing cloud modeling methods often ignore the differentiated characteristics of cloud layers at different heights, and suffer from high computational costs under long-range conditions, making them unsuitable for large-scale scenes. Therefore, we propose a multi-level particle system 3D cloud modeling algorithm based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which combines particle weight adjustment with a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) feedback mechanism to represent cloud features of different heights and types. Based on the multi-scale mean-shift clustering algorithm, Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation (AKDE) is introduced to map density to bandwidth, achieving adaptive adjustment of clustering bandwidth while reducing computational resources and improving cloud hierarchy. Meanwhile, selecting the optimal control points based on the correlation between particle density in the edge region and cloud contour can ensure the integrity of the internal structure of the cloud and the clarity of the external contour. To improve modeling efficiency, cascade Bezier curves are designed at different line-of-sights (LoSs), utilizing the weight information of boundary particles to optimize cloud contours. Experimental results show that, compared with similar algorithms, our algorithm reduces the average running time by 37.5%, indicating enhanced computational efficiency and real-time capability, and the average number of required particles by 30.1%, reducing the cost of long-range computing. Our algorithm can fully demonstrate cloud characteristics and interlayer differences, significantly improve modeling efficiency, and can be used for accurate modeling of large-scale cloud scenes, providing strong support for meteorological and climate prediction. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling)
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18 pages, 3381 KiB  
Article
Sea Breeze-Driven Variations in Planetary Boundary Layer Height over Barrow: Insights from Meteorological and Lidar Observations
by Hui Li, Wei Gong, Boming Liu, Yingying Ma, Shikuan Jin, Weiyan Wang, Ruonan Fan, Shuailong Jiang, Yujie Wang and Zhe Tong
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(9), 1633; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17091633 - 5 May 2025
Viewed by 639
Abstract
The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) in coastal Arctic regions is influenced by sea breeze circulation. However, the specific mechanisms through which sea breeze affects PBLH evolution remain insufficiently explored. This study uses meteorological data, micro-pulse lidar (MPL) data, and sounding profiles from [...] Read more.
The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) in coastal Arctic regions is influenced by sea breeze circulation. However, the specific mechanisms through which sea breeze affects PBLH evolution remain insufficiently explored. This study uses meteorological data, micro-pulse lidar (MPL) data, and sounding profiles from 2014 to 2021 to investigate the annual and polar day PBLH evolution driven by sea breezes in the Barrow region of Alaska, as well as the specific mechanisms. The results show that sea breeze events significantly suppress PBLH, especially during the polar day, when prolonged solar radiation intensifies the thermal contrast between land and ocean. The cold, moist sea breeze stabilizes the atmospheric conditions, reducing net radiation and sensible heat flux. All these factors inhibit turbulent mixing and PBLH development. Lidar and sounding analyses further reveal that PBLH is lower during sea breeze events compared to non-sea-breeze conditions, with the peak of its probability density distribution occurring at a lower PBLH range. The variable importance in projection (VIP) analysis identifies relative humidity (VIP = 1.95) and temperature (VIP = 1.1) as the primary factors controlling PBLH, highlighting the influence of atmospheric stability in regulating PBLH. These findings emphasize the crucial role of sea breeze in modulating PBL dynamics in the Arctic, with significant implications for improving climate models and studies on pollutant dispersion in polar regions. Full article
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25 pages, 18349 KiB  
Article
Surface-Dependent Meteorological Responses to a Taklimakan Dust Event During Summer near the Northern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau
by Binrui Wang, Hongyu Ji, Zhida Zhang, Jiening Liang, Lei Zhang, Mengqi Li, Rui Qiu, Hongjing Luo, Weiming An, Pengfei Tian and Mansur O. Amonov
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(9), 1561; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17091561 - 28 Apr 2025
Viewed by 482
Abstract
The northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the crucial affected area for dust originating from the Taklimakan Desert (TD). However, few studies have focused on the meteorological element responses to TD dust over different surface types near the TP. Satellite data [...] Read more.
The northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the crucial affected area for dust originating from the Taklimakan Desert (TD). However, few studies have focused on the meteorological element responses to TD dust over different surface types near the TP. Satellite data and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to analyze the dust being transported from the TD to the TP and its effect from 30 July to 2 August 2016. In the TD, the middle-upper dust layer weakened the solar radiation reaching the lower dust layer, which reduced the temperature within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) during daytime. At night, the dust’s thermal preservation effect increased temperatures within the PBL and decreased temperatures at approximately 0.5 to 2.5 km above PBL. In the TP without snow cover, dust concentration was one-fifth of the TD, while the cooling layer intensity was comparable to the TD. However, within the PBL, the lower concentration and thickness of dust allowed dust to heat atmospheric continuously throughout the day. In the TP with snow cover, dust diminished planetary albedo, elevating temperatures above 6 km, hastening snow melting, which absorbed latent heat and increased the atmospheric water vapor content, consequently decreasing temperatures below 6 km. Surface meteorological element responses to dust varied significantly across different surface types. In the TD, 2 m temperature (T2) decreased by 0.4 °C during daytime, with the opposite nighttime variation. In the TP without snow cover, T2 was predominantly warming. In the snow-covered TP, T2 decreased throughout the day, with a maximum cooling of 1.12 °C and decreased PBL height by up to 258 m. Additionally, a supplementary simulation of a dust event from 17 June to 19 June 2016 further validated our findings. The meteorological elements response to dust is significantly affected by the dust concentration, thickness, and surface type, with significant day–night differences, suggesting that surface types and dust distribution should be considered in dust effect studies to improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Atmospheric Remote Sensing)
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24 pages, 26319 KiB  
Article
Modeling PM2.5 Levels Due to Combustion Activities and Fireworks in Quito (Ecuador) for Forecasting Using WRF-Chem
by Rene Parra
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 495; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050495 - 25 Apr 2025
Viewed by 693
Abstract
PM2.5 levels increase in cities during the first hours of the year due to combustion activities and the use of fireworks. In Quito (2800 masl), the capital of Ecuador, air quality records at the beginning of 2020 to 2025 (6 years) ranged [...] Read more.
PM2.5 levels increase in cities during the first hours of the year due to combustion activities and the use of fireworks. In Quito (2800 masl), the capital of Ecuador, air quality records at the beginning of 2020 to 2025 (6 years) ranged between 13.4 and 217.8 µg m−3 (maximum mean levels for 24 h), most of them being higher than 15.0 µg m−3, the current recommended concentration by the World Health Organization (WHO), highlighting the need to decrease these emissions and promote actions to reduce the exposure to these extreme events. Air pollution forecasting as a preventive warning system could help achieve this objective. Therefore, the primary aim of this research was to analyze the variation in PM2.5 levels in this city during the initial hours of the year to define, through numerical experiments, the spatiotemporal configuration of PM2.5 emissions to reproduce the observed PM2.5 levels and obtain insights to build an emission-based forecasting tool. For this purpose, we modeled atmospheric variables and the PM2.5 levels using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. Consistent with the behavior suggested by records of associated meteorological variables, the modeled planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) was generally lower in the city’s south compared with the center and the north. The records and modeled results indicated that in the south, the higher PM2.5 levels were produced by higher emissions and lower values of the PBLH compared with the center and north, highlighting the importance of reducing the PM2.5 emissions. The emission maps used for modeling the dispersion at the beginning of 2024 and 2025 are proposed as inputs for the future forecasting of the PM2.5 levels at the start of the year, as preventive information for the public, to discourage, in advance, both combustion activities and the use of fireworks and to take action to avoid exposure. Full article
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22 pages, 25259 KiB  
Article
Spatial Modeling of Trace Element Concentrations in PM10 Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)
by Mariacarmela Cusano, Alessandra Gaeta, Raffaele Morelli, Giorgio Cattani, Silvia Canepari, Lorenzo Massimi and Gianluca Leone
Atmosphere 2025, 16(4), 464; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040464 - 16 Apr 2025
Viewed by 499
Abstract
GAMs were implemented to evaluate the spatial variation in concentrations of 33 elements in PM10, in their water-soluble and insoluble fractions used as tracers for different emission sources. Data were collected during monitoring campaigns (November 2016–February 2018) in the Terni basin [...] Read more.
GAMs were implemented to evaluate the spatial variation in concentrations of 33 elements in PM10, in their water-soluble and insoluble fractions used as tracers for different emission sources. Data were collected during monitoring campaigns (November 2016–February 2018) in the Terni basin (an urban and industrial hotspot of Central Italy), using an innovative experimental approach based on high-spatial-resolution (23 sites, approximately 1 km apart) monthly samplings and the chemical characterization of PM10. For each element, a model was developed using monthly mean concentrations as the response variable. As covariates, the temporal predictors included meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, irradiance, precipitation, planet boundary layer height), while the spatial predictors encompassed distances from major sources, road length, building heights, land use variables, imperviousness, and population. A stepwise procedure was followed to determine the model with the optimal set of covariates. A leave-one-out cross-validation method was used to estimate the prediction error. Statistical indicators (Adjusted R-Squared, RMSE, FAC2, FB) were used to evaluate the performance of the GAMs. The spatial distribution of the fitted values of PM10 and its elemental components, weighted over all sampling periods, was mapped at a resolution of 100 m. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air Quality)
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30 pages, 31096 KiB  
Article
Decadal Trends and Drivers of Dust Emissions in East Asia: Integrating Statistical and SHAP-Based Interpretability Approaches
by Ziwei Yi, Yaqiang Wang, Zhaoliang Zeng, Weijie Li, Huizheng Che and Xiaoye Zhang
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(7), 1313; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17071313 - 7 Apr 2025
Viewed by 1036
Abstract
Dust emissions significantly impact the radiation balance, ecosystems, human health, and global climate change through long-range transport. However, their spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms in East Asia remain poorly understood. This study integrates multi-source reanalysis and remote sensing data (1980–2023) to analyze dust [...] Read more.
Dust emissions significantly impact the radiation balance, ecosystems, human health, and global climate change through long-range transport. However, their spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms in East Asia remain poorly understood. This study integrates multi-source reanalysis and remote sensing data (1980–2023) to analyze dust emissions across East Asian source regions using statistical methods and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretability. The results show significant spatial and seasonal variations, with peak emissions occurring in spring (March–May). The Taklamakan Desert (S4) accounts for 38.1% of total emissions and is the largest source region. Meteorological factors are the main drivers (49.4–68.8% contribution), while climate indices contribute the least (2.9–8.0%). Wind speed is the most critical factor driving dust emissions, showing a significant positive correlation and interacting with 850 hPa geopotential height and boundary layer height. The driving factors of dust emissions vary across regions. In Mongolia (S1), dust emissions are mainly influenced by wind speed and atmospheric circulation, while in S4, near-surface meteorological conditions play a dominant role. In the Tsaidam Basin and Kumutage Desert (S5), as well as the Badain Jaran, Tengger, and Ulan Buh Deserts (S6), dust emissions are primarily driven by wind speed and boundary layer height, with atmospheric circulation also playing a certain role. Relative humidity shows a significant negative correlation with dust emissions in S5 and S6, while snowmelt and soil temperature have significant impacts on S4 and S5. The negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation enhance cold air activity and wind speed, significantly promoting dust emissions in S1 and S6. This study quantifies the mechanisms of dust emissions in East Asia and offers scientific support for improving climate models and developing disaster mitigation strategies. Full article
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