Search Results (22)

The estimation of runout distances for long return period avalanches is vital in zoning schemes for mountainous countries. There are two broad methods to estimate snow avalanche runout distance. One involves the use of a physical model to calculate speeds along the incline, with runout distance determined when the speed drops to zero. The second method, which is used here, is based on empirical or statistical models from databases of extreme runout for a given mountain range or area. The second method has been used for more than 40 years with diverse datasets collected from North America and Europe. The primary reason for choosing the method used here is that it is independent of physical models such as avalanche dynamics, which allows comparisons between methods. In this paper, data from diverse datasets are analyzed to explain the relation between them to give an overall view of the meaning of the data. Runout is formulated from nine different datasets and 738 values of extreme runout, mostly with average return periods of about 100 years. Each dataset was initially fit to 65 probability density functions (pdf) using five goodness-of-fit tests. Detailed discussion and analysis are presented for a set of extreme value distributions (Gumbel, Frechet, Weibull). Two distributions had exemplary results in terms of goodness of fit: the generalized logistic (GLO) and the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Considerations included both the goodness-of-fit and the heaviness of the tail, of which the latter is important in engineering decisions. The results showed that, generally, the GLO has a heavier tail. Our paper is the first to compare median extreme runout distances, the first to compare exceedance probability of extreme runout, and the first to analyze many probability distributions for a diverse set of datasets rigorously using five goodness-of-fit tests. Previous papers contained analysis mostly for the Gumbel distribution using only one goodness-of-fit test. Given that climate change is in effect, consideration of stationarity of the distributions is considered. Based on studies of climate change and avalanches, thus far, it has been suggested that stationarity should be a reasonable assumption for the extreme avalanche data considered. Full article

Mount Meager is a deeply eroded quaternary volcanic complex located in southwestern British Columbia (BC) and is known for its frequent large landslides. In 2010, the south face of Mount Meager collapsed, generating a long-runout debris avalanche that was one of the largest landslides (50 × 10⁶ m³) in Canadian history. Over the past 14 years, the landslide deposit has been reworked by stream action, delivering large amounts of sediment to Lillooet River, just downstream. In this study, we investigate 10 years of geomorphic evolution of the landslide deposit using orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) generated using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry on aerial photographs acquired during unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys. The SfM products were used to produce a series of precise maps that highlight the geomorphological changes along the lower Meager Creek within the runout area of the landslide. Comparison of DEMs produced from 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2019 imagery allowed us to calculate deposit volume changes related to erosion, transport, and redeposition of landslide material. We estimate that about 1.1 × 10⁶ m³ of sediment was eroded from the landslide deposit over the period 2015–2019. About 5.2 × 10⁵ m³ of that sediment was redeposited inside the study area. About 5.8 × 10⁵ m³ of sediment, mainly sand, silt, and clay, were exported from the study area and are being carried by Lillooet River towards Pemberton, 40 km from Mount Meager, and farther downstream. These remobilized sediments likely reduce the Lillooet River channel capacity and thus increase flood hazards to the communities of Pemberton and Mount Currie. Our study indicates a landslide persistence in the landscape, with an estimated 47-year half-life decay, suggesting that higher flood hazard conditions related to increased sediment supply may last longer than previously estimated. This study shows the value of using SfM in tandem with historic aerial photographs, UAV photos, and high-resolution satellite imagery for determining sediment budgets in fluvial systems. Full article

Trees in forests can obstruct falling rocks and serve as a natural barrier to reduce the velocity of falling rocks. Recently, there has been growing interest in utilizing forests to safeguard against potential rockfall. Nevertheless, there is a dearth of research regarding the impact of rock size and forest structure on forest preservation against rockfall. This study takes the Jiweishan rock avalanche that occurred in China in June 2009 as an example to discuss the protection mechanism of forests against rockfall in rock avalanche disasters. Three sizes of rockfalls from the Jiweishan rock avalanche were simulated and analyzed with and without forests using Rockyfor3D software. The findings indicate that forests can mitigate the energy impact of falling rocks. Especially in the debris flow area of rock avalanches, the protective effect of trees on small-sized falling rocks is most obvious, reducing the runout distance and damage range of the debris flow. Moreover, the protective effect of forest structures on rockfall risk was explored. It was found that broad-leaved forests had the best protection against falling rocks, followed by coniferous broad-leaved mixed forests, and coniferous forests had the worst protective effect. Furthermore, increasing forest planting density and tree diameter at breast height (DBH) can result in better protection against rockfall. Thus, rational planning of forest species and planting density in areas of rockfall can effectively reduce the threat of rockfall risk. The research ideas in this study can provide a basis for evaluating the mitigation of rockfall hazards by forests and provide a reference for constructing and planning protective forests in rockfall and rock avalanche hazard areas. Full article

This paper aims to introduce a numerical technique for forecasting the hazard caused by the disaster chain of landslide blocking river-dam breach floods through an integration of the distinct element method (DEM) and a well-balanced finite volume type shallow water model (SFLOW). A toppling slope in a reservoir area, the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, was chosen for the study. Creep has been observed in the potential instability area, and a possible sliding surface was identified based on the data collected from adits and boreholes. Catastrophic rock avalanches may be triggered after reservoir impoundment, and the associated landslide disaster chain needed to be predicted. First, the landslide blocking river process was modeled by the DEM using the three-dimensional particle flow code (PFC 3D). The landslide duration, runout distance, and kinematic characteristics were obtained. In addition, the landslide dam and barrier lake were constructed. Then, the cascading dam breach flood propagation was simulated using the self-developed SFLOW. The flow velocity, inundation depth, and area were obtained. The hazard maps derived from the combined numerical technique provided a quantitative reference for risk mitigation. The influences of two involved parameters on the final hazard-affected area are discussed herein. It is expected that the presented model will be applied in more prediction cases. Full article

The glacial and torrential basin of Taconnaz (Mont-Blanc massif, France) dominates the Chamonix valley. It is one of the major paths for snow avalanches in the Alps, often triggered by serac falls from the Taconnaz glacier. On 24 November 2018, the basin’s multi-risk nature was further accentuated by a new type of hazard with a rockfall triggered at c. 2700 m a.s.l. It travelled down over a distance of 1.85 km and stopped 165 m away from the construction site of a micro-hydroelectric power station. We studied the triggering conditions at the permafrost lower limit, the effects of the supra-glacial path on the flow patterns, and the fate of the scar and the deposit on torrential activity. By comparing a pre-event Structure from Motion model with a post-event LiDAR model, we estimated the volume of the scar to be 42,900 m³ (±5%). A numerical model was employed to simulate the rapid runout. It revealed the complexity of the flow, attributed to the sequestration of a part of the deposit in crevasses, the incorporation of a significant volume of ice resulting in a transition from a dry granular flow to a mud-like flow, and the presence of numerous deposit zones. Subsequent monitoring of the area after the event allowed for the documentation of the scar’s evolution, including a landslide, as well as the progressive degradation and evacuation of the deposit by the torrent without producing debris flow. The study of the triggering factors indicated glacial retreat as the probable main cause, assisted by the melting of ice lenses left by the permafrost disappearance. Finally, we present replicable methods for managing risks at the site following the event. This event improves the understanding of cascading processes that increasingly impact Alpine areas in the context of climate change. Full article

The Pirin Mountains in Bulgaria are refuge of endemic Pinus peuce and Pinus heldreichii forests. Due to the steep and long slopes, the forests are affected by avalanches and many trees keep record of the past avalanche activity in their tree rings. In our study, we used a combination of dendrochronology, satellite images and historical aerophotos to study the effects of avalanches on forests in the Bunderitsa valley. Our findings show that avalanches are the main shaping factor for the structure of forests in the valley, followed by fires. Past avalanche activity is responsible for the opened long-lasting avalanche tracks in the forests. About 60% of the potential forests (i.e., territories below the treeline, outside of the avalanche couloirs, streams, rock formations and screes) are strongly affected by avalanches. Of them, almost 40% are in avalanche runout zones, 12% are in avalanche tracks in the forests and 48% are forests, which are periodically strongly affected by bigger avalanches. Comparisons of newer satellite images with older aerophotos showed that in the 1970s, there were larger openings in the forests due to the high frequency of avalanches in the very snowy 1950s and 1960s. Although, recently, the avalanche activity has decreased, there are still years with larger avalanches, which affect forests. In addition, tourist development in the vicinity has increased the risk for human health and life due to avalanche accidents, including in forests. Tree-ring analysis allowed for the reconstructing of past avalanches that affected certain areas. The big couloirs are affected by smaller avalanches almost annually, while bigger avalanches have hit the neighboring forests almost every decade. Our findings demonstrate that avalanches in the valley are of a high importance and require more attention from authorities both as a risk factor for human health and life and as a natural disturbance, shaping the structure and dynamics of the forest. Full article

Rock avalanches and landslides lead to gravitational flow into their runout areas, which poses increasing danger to settlement areas and infrastructure in the Alpine region as a result of climate change. In recent years, a significant increase in extreme events has been registered in the Alps due to climate change. These changes in the threat to settlement areas in the Alpine region have resulted in the need for the construction of sustainable protective structures. Many structures are rigid, but others are now also increasingly flexible, e.g., net and dam structures, which are mainly earth dams with geogrids. In this study, empirical model experiments and numerical simulations were carried out to estimate the flow depth, the deposition forms and the effects on protective structures. Numerical programs usually require unknown input parameters and long computation times for a realistic simulation of the process. This study shows the results of model tests with different granular materials. Furthermore, different design approaches of different authors are presented. Finally, a design model based on the model tests of the University of Innsbruck for rigid barriers, nets and dams due to rock avalanches is presented. Full article

The aim of this work is a comprehensive assessment of the avalanche risk within the Kráľova hoľa area in the Low Tatra Mountains in Slovakia by the modeling of trigger areas, and the simulation of avalanche movements and their maximum impact using GIS and the RAMMS simulation model. Within the environment of geographic information systems, we created a layer of trigger areas using a digital elevation model and a vector layer of a land cover as input data. This layer was added together with the digital elevation model to the RAMMS simulation model, where cartographic outputs were created, focusing on snow cover height, avalanche flow speed, and pressure exerted by a falling avalanche. Based on these documents, we were able to develop an updated map of the avalanche cadastre of the examined area. In the given territory, we mapped a range of trigger areas within an area of 2.6 km² and the total range of avalanche run-outs within 14 interconnected areas. Of all the high mountains in Slovakia endangered by avalanches, this is the lowest range. The results are a suitable basis for the proper management and optimal use of the territory, which is part of Low Tatras National Park. Full article

Frequent ice avalanche events are being reported across the globe in recent years. On the 7 February 2021, a flash flood triggered by a rock-ice avalanche with an unusually long runout distance, caused significant damage of life and property in the Tapovan region of the Indian Himalaya. Using multi-temporal satellite datasets, digital terrain models (DTMs) and simulations, here we report the pre-event and during-event flow characteristics of two large-scale avalanches within a 5-year interval at the slope failure site. Prior to both the events, we observed short-term and long-term changes in surface velocity (SV) with maximum SVs increasing up to over 5 times the normal values. We further simulated the events to understand their mechanical characteristics leading to long runouts. In addition to its massive volume, the extraordinary magnitude of the 2021 event can partly be attributed to the possible remobilisation and entrainment of the colluvial deposits from previous ice and snow avalanches. The anomalous SVs should be explored further for their suitability as a possible remotely observable precursor of ice avalanches from hanging glaciers. This sequence of events highlights that there is a need to take into account the antecedent conditions, while making a holistic assessment of the hazard. Full article

We applied a multi-method approach to reconstruct the Gorte rock avalanche (85–95 Mm³) located at the northeastern end of Lake Garda. The combination of field mapping, characterization of bedrock discontinuities, Dan3D-Flex runout modeling and dating of boulders with cosmogenic ³⁶Cl supports the conclusion that the deposits stem from a single rock avalanche at 6.1 ± 0.8 ka. The Gorte event may have triggered the Spiaz de Navesele–Salto della Capra landslide (3.2 Mm³), whose deposits cover the southern end of the Gorte deposits. First-order controls on detachment were the NNE–SSW- and WNW–ESE-oriented fractures in the limestone bedrock, related to the Giudicarie and Schio-Vicenza fault systems, respectively. Dan3D-Flex runout modeling sufficiently reproduced the Gorte rock avalanche, which involved detachment and sliding of a quasi-intact block, likely along marly interbeds, followed by rapid disintegration. The frictional rheology in the source area and the turbulent frictional rheology (Voellmy) in the remaining part best replicate the observed deposit extent and thickness. Heavy precipitation that occurred at that time may have contributed to failure at Gorte. Nonetheless, its timing overlaps with the nearby (<15 km) Dosso Gardene (6630–6290 cal BP) and Marocca Principale (5.3 ± 0.9 ka) landslides, making a seismic trigger plausible. Full article

The Säntis nappe is a complex fold-and-thrust structure in eastern Switzerland, consisting of numerous tectonic discontinuities and a range of hillslopes prone to landsliding and large slope failures that modify the topography irreversibly. A slope failure, namely the Sennwald rock avalanche, occurred in the southeast wall of this fold-and-thrust structure due to the rock failure of Lower Cretaceous Helvetic limestones along the Rhine River valley. In this research, this palaeolandslide is examined in a multidisciplinary approach for the first time with detection and mapping of avalanche deposits, dynamic run-out modelling and cosmogenic nuclide dating. During the rock failure, the avalanche deposits were transported down the hillslope in a spreading-deck fashion, roughly preserving the original stratigraphic sequence. The distribution of landslide deposits and surface exposure age of the rock failure support the hypothesis that the landslide was a single catastrophic event. The ³⁶Cl surface exposure age of avalanche deposits indicates an age of 4.3 ± 0.5 ka. This time coincides with a notably wet climate period, noted as a conditioning factor for landslides across the Alps in the mid-Holocene. The contemporaneity of our event at its location in the Eastern Alps provide additional support for the contention of increased regional seismic activity in mid-Holocene. Full article

Developments in mountain areas prone to natural hazards produce undesired impacts and damages. Thus, disaster assessment is mandatory to understand the physics of dangerous events and to make decisions to prevent hazardous situations. This work focusses on the practical implementation of methods and tools to assess a snow avalanche that affected a road at the Coll de Pal in 2018 (SE Pyrenees). This is a quite common situation in mountain roads and the assessment has to focus specially in the avalanche–road interaction, on the return periods considered and on the dynamics of the phenomena. This assessment presents the field recognition, snow and weather characterization and numerical modelling of the avalanche. Field campaigns revealed evidences of the avalanche triggering, runout trajectory and general behavior. An unstable situation of the snowpack due to a relatively large snowfall fallen some days before over a previous snowpack with weak layers, caused the avalanche triggering when an additional load was added by a strong wind-drift episode. A medium size (<2500 m³) soft slab avalanche, corresponding to a return period of 15–20 years, occurred and crossed the road of the Coll de Pal pass. The event was reproduced numerically by means of the 2D-SWE based numerical tool Iber aiming to analyze the avalanche behavior. Results of the simulation corresponded with the observations (runout trajectory and snow deposit); thus, relevant information about the avalanche dynamics could be obtained. Identified differences probably come from the terrain elevation data, which represent “snow free” topography and do not consider the snowpack on the terrain. Full article

Due to the growing populations in areas at high risk of natural disasters, hazard and risk assessments of landslides have attracted significant attention from researchers worldwide. In order to assess potential risks and design possible countermeasures, it is necessary to have a better understanding of this phenomenon and its mechanism. As a result, the prediction of landslide evolution using continuum dynamic modeling implemented in advanced simulation tools is becoming more important. We analyzed a depth-integrated, two-phase model implemented in two different sets of code to stimulate rapid landslides, such as debris flows and rock avalanches. The first set of code, r.avaflow, represents a GIS-based computational framework and employs the NOC-TVD numerical scheme. The second set of code, GeoFlow-SPH, is based on the mesh-free numerical method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) with the capability of describing pore pressure’s evolution along the vertical distribution of flowing mass. Two real cases of an Acheron rock avalanche and Sham Tseng San Tsuen debris flow were used with the best fit values of geotechnical parameters obtained in the prior modeling to investigate the capabilities of the sets of code. Comparison of the results evidenced that both sets of code were capable of properly reproducing the run-out distance, deposition thickness, and deposition shape in the benchmark exercises. However, the values of maximum propagation velocities and thickness were considerably different, suggesting that using more than one set of simulation code allows us to predict more accurately the possible scenarios and design more effective countermeasures. Full article

Data on the disastrous snow avalanche that occurred on 18 January 2017 at the spa hotel Rigopiano, municipality of Farindola in the Abruzzo region of central Italy, are analyzed in different ways. The main results are the following. (i) The 2017 Rigopiano avalanche went beyond the run-out point predicted by the topographic-statistical $\alpha$-$\beta$ model with standard Norwegian calibration, while avalanches in neighboring paths appear to have run no farther than the $\beta$-point of their respective paths during the same period. (ii) The curvature and super-elevation of the trimline between 1500 and 1300 m a.s.l. indicate that the velocity of the front was around 40 m s${}^{-1}$. In contrast, the tail velocity of the avalanche can hardly have exceeded 25 m s${}^{-1}$ in the same segment. (iii) The deposits observed along all of the lower track and in the run-out zone suggest that the avalanche eroded essentially the entire snow cover, but fully entrained only a moderate amount of snow (and debris). The entrainment appears to have had a considerable decelerating effect on the flow front. (iv) Estimates of the degree to which different parts of the building were damaged is combined with information about the location of the persons in the building and their fates. This allows to refine a preliminary vulnerability curve for persons in buildings obtained from the 2015 Longyearbyen avalanche, Svalbard. Full article

A key point of landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of their runout. Empirical relations linking angle of reach to volume can be used relatively easily, but they are generally associated with large uncertainties as they do not consider the topographic specificity of a given study site. On the contrary, numerical simulations provide more detailed results on the deposits morphology, but their rheological parameters can be difficult to constrain. Simulating all possible values can be time consuming and incompatible with operational requirements of rapid estimations. We propose and compare three operational methods to derive scaling power laws relating the landslide travel distance to the destabilized volume. The first one relies only on empirical relations, the second one on numerical simulations with back-analysis, and the third one combines both approaches. Their efficiency is tested on three case studies: the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to $4\times {10}^6$ m${}^3$), the Frank Slide rock avalanche ($36\times {10}^6$ m${}^3$) and the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to $4\times {10}^6$ m${}^3$) the Fei Tsui debris slide in Hong Kong ($0.014\times {10}^6$ m${}^3$). Purely numerical estimations yield the smallest uncertainty, but the uncertainty on rheological parameters is difficult to quantify. Combining numerical and empirical approaches allows to reduce the uncertainty of estimation by up to 50%, in comparison to purely empirical estimations. However, it may also induces a bias in the estimation, though observations always lie in the 95% prediction intervals. We also show that empirical estimations fail to model properly the dependence between volume and travel distance, particularly for small landslides (<20,000 $<0.02\times {10}^6$ m${}^3$). Full article