Search Results (1,292)

Since 2011, massive strandings of pelagic Sargassum have become a recurrent environmental hazard across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean archipelago, creating an urgent need for reliable short-term drift forecasts to support coastal risk management. This study evaluates key sources of uncertainty in operational Sargassum drift forecasting by analyzing the sensitivity of Lagrangian simulations to the representation of floating material and to environmental forcing fields. The analysis uses two complementary observational datasets: trajectories of four GPS-tracked Sargassum mats deployed near Puerto Rico and thirteen 24 h displacement vectors derived from sequential Sentinel-3 satellite detections across the tropical North Atlantic. Drift simulations were performed with the MOTHY model under multiple configurations, testing two material parameterizations, different atmospheric forcings, and several ocean circulation products and vertical current integration strategies. The results indicate that the best agreement with observed trajectories is obtained for partially immersed structures, highlighting the importance of balancing wind exposure and hydrodynamic drag. Sensitivity experiments further show that ocean circulation forcing dominates trajectory skill, while higher-resolution atmospheric forcing provides limited improvement under offshore conditions. Overall, the study confirms the importance of accurately representing upper-ocean transport processes and provides observational support for several operational choices implemented in the Météo-France Sargassum forecasting system. Full article

Global satellite missions with the capability to measure ocean surface currents are continually being proposed. This new observation type is expected to significantly improve ocean model analysis and forecast skill. The potential impact of assimilating sea surface currents from the proposed wide-swath Ocean Dynamics and Surface Exchange with the Atmosphere (ODYSEA) mission is investigated in this study. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is set up with a 1 km Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) analysis-forecasting system in the Gulf of America domain over a 4-month time period. When compared to an experiment with only the standard data streams of temperature, salinity, and sea surface height anomaly observations from in situ and satellite platforms assimilated, the inclusion of ODYSEA-like sea surface current observations leads to a 13% and 17% reduction in the domain and time averaged root mean squared error (RMSE) for surface u and v components, respectively, as well as an improvement in the current velocity throughout the upper water column. The assimilation of the sea surface current observations also leads to an improvement in the model sea surface height, although there is a negligible to slight degradation in the temperature and salinity at depth, which is likely due to the explicit geostrophic assumption made within the velocity assimilation methodology. Full article

With the goal of achieving more accurate wind power predictions by accounting for meteorological influences comprising wind speed, together with wind direction and air pressure, this thesis proposes a method combining fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering with a TCN–Transformer hybrid model. After preprocessing the data to remove outage and missing records, we apply the Pearson correlation coefficient to identify average wind speed and wind direction that are suitable to serve as input features for the model, together with the atmospheric pressure, as key input features. FCM clustering is then applied to partition the data into low- and high-wind-speed operating conditions, mitigating the accuracy loss caused by uniform modeling. A TCN–Transformer model is subsequently constructed, integrating local temporal feature extraction with global dependency modeling to perform prediction under each condition. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed FCM–TCN–Transformer framework consistently achieves superior forecasting performance under both low-wind-speed and high-wind-speed conditions. Compared with benchmark models, including TCN, LSTM, GRU, BiGRU, and Transformer, the proposed method achieves lower prediction errors and higher prediction accuracy across different forecasting horizons. Furthermore, repeated experiments with multiple random seeds verify the robustness and stability of the proposed framework. These results indicate that FCM-based wind regime classification effectively reduces data heterogeneity, while the hybrid TCN–Transformer architecture successfully captures both local temporal patterns and long-range temporal dependencies. Therefore, the proposed framework provides an effective and reliable solution for short-term wind power forecasting and contributes to the secure integration of wind energy into modern power systems. Full article

Wind speed prediction is an essential spatiotemporal forecasting task in wind energy systems, yet it remains challenging due to the nonlinear and dynamic characteristics of atmospheric processes. The evolution of wind is governed by physical laws, which can be effectively described using partial differential equations (PDEs). To improve forecasting reliability and accuracy, this paper proposes a novel network model, termed DynWindNet, which integrates equation-based dynamics with data-driven dynamics within a unified framework. Specifically, an interactive dual-branch architecture is designed, where a Physics–Data Coupling Module (PDCM) enables adaptive information exchange between the two dynamics via attention-based gating mechanisms. In addition, a frequency-aware enhancement module (FAEM) is introduced to refine the representations of the data-driven branch by selectively emphasizing informative frequency components. Experimental results on the ERA5 dataset demonstrate that DynWindNet consistently outperforms representative baseline methods across atmospheric pressure levels. Overall, the proposed framework provides an effective approach for integrating physics-guided evolution modeling with deep spatiotemporal representation learning in wind field forecasting. Full article

Global climate change is causing an increase in extreme rainfall events, which impacts the risk of hydrometeorological disasters. To support disaster mitigation and early warning systems, accurate and reliable rainfall predictions are required. Although ensemble forecasting is widely used to model atmospheric uncertainty, raw ensemble results often exhibit insufficient bias and dispersion. Therefore, post-processing techniques are needed to improve the quality of probabilistic predictions. The most commonly used calibration method is Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). This study conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed papers on ensemble forecast calibration using BMA, based on the PRISMA-ScR framework. Furthermore, this study presents a comprehensive bibliometric analysis involving co-authorship networks of productive authors and bibliometric maps with clustered terms. A total of 35 relevant articles were identified from 49 screened publications. The bibliometric analysis revealed that “ensemble forecasting” and “Gaussian distribution” are the most dominant terms in the research network, indicating that Gaussian-based approaches remain more widely used in ensemble forecast calibration studies. In contrast, studies explicitly applying Gamma-based approaches are still relatively limited despite their relevance for modeling asymmetric rainfall data. The results obtained in this study highlight the importance of developing and integrating more appropriate probability distributions, such as those within the Extreme Value Theory framework, into BMA models. These findings suggest that the selection of appropriate probabilistic distributions in BMA-based calibration frameworks plays an important role in improving forecast reliability and the representation of uncertainty in rainfall prediction. Furthermore, the development of more suitable probability distributions, including Extreme Value Theory (EVT)-based distributions, has strong potential to enhance probabilistic calibration performance for asymmetric rainfall data. This approach is expected to improve the accuracy and reliability of extreme rainfall predictions. The findings of this study provide an important contribution to the development of early warning systems for hydrometeorological disasters and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

Air pollution poses significant risks to public health, ecosystems, and regional economies, particularly in rapidly developing regions. Despite its importance, the Middle East remains relatively understudied in regional air quality, with limited evaluations of pollutant transport and model performance. This study applies the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model coupled with the CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions) model to simulate meteorology and air quality over West Asia, with a focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Six representative months are analyzed, including three winter periods (January 2018, 2020, 2022) and three summer periods (June 2017, 2019, 2021). WRF shows good agreement with observations, reproducing near-surface temperature with an index of agreement (IOA) between 0.90 and 1.00 and generally low wind speed (MB < ±0.5 m s⁻¹) and wind direction biases (MB < ±0.5), although cloud-radiative forcing is underestimated during winter. CAMx reproduces PM_2.5 concentrations with moderate-to-high correlations (r = 0.44–0.65) and low bias, while AOD and O₃ column concentration show larger uncertainties. Satellite-based evaluation indicates good performance for NO₂ and CO column abundances but larger discrepancies for HCHO and SO₂, particularly during summer. Overall, the results demonstrate that the WRF-CAMx modeling system provides a reliable framework for regional air quality simulations over West Asia, while highlighting uncertainties associated with emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and satellite retrieval products. Full article

This study investigates tide–surge nonlinear interactions along the southeastern coast of China (SCC) using Typhoon Winnie as a case study. A coupled tide–surge model is established based on the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), incorporating realistic bathymetry, tidal constituents, wind fields, and atmospheric pressure. The results show that tide–surge interactions contribute up to 1.8 m to the total water level, with the most pronounced effects occurring in shallow, high-friction coastal regions such as Hangzhou Bay, the Yangtze River Estuary, and the Jiangsu coast. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the quadratic bottom friction term is the dominant mechanism driving the nonlinear interaction, while the advection term plays a secondary role. The interaction intensity is highly sensitive to water depth and topographic slope; reducing water depth generally intensifies the interaction, though the response is non-monotonic in regions with complex bathymetry such as the radial sand ridge field. The phase and period of astronomical tides also exert significant control. Notably, semi-diurnal constituents (e.g., M₂, S₂) dominate the interaction, accounting for up to 80% of the nonlinear effect, whereas diurnal constituents contribute negligibly (less than 0.1 m). Tide–surge coupling significantly affects both the magnitude and timing of extreme water levels, with enhanced interaction occurring during astronomical low tide at some stations (e.g., Dinghai). These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating tide–surge interactions, particularly with accurate bottom friction and semi-diurnal tidal forcing, into storm surge models for improved forecasting and disaster risk assessment along China’s southeastern coast. Full article

Extreme weather events exacerbated by global warming pose severe threats to urban safety, underscoring the urgent need for highly accurate precipitation nowcasting. Short-term local heavy precipitation remains a particular challenge for traditional forecasting due to its suddenness and high disaster potential. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion framework that integrates ground-based GNSS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor (GNSS-PWV) and ground-based Radar Composite Reflectivity (CR). While GNSS-PWV keenly captures pre-convective atmospheric water vapor accumulation, radar CR details the morphological distribution of hydrometeors. Specifically, we developed the Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Attention Swin U-Net (STEA-Swin) model to synergize these heterogeneous datasets over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. High-precision PWV was retrieved from 250 Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) using the dual-frequency ionosphere-free Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method, achieving a strong correlation (>0.97) with ERA5 reanalysis data. Validated against measured data from the 2025 flood season, the STEA-Swin model achieved a Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.68 for torrential rain events at a +1 h forecast lead time. Notably, compared to single-source models, the Critical Success Index (CSI) and POD for torrential rain improved by 18.5% and 21.5%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that coupling deep learning with ground-based GNSS-derived atmospheric thermodynamic information can significantly enhance early warning capabilities, providing a promising technical approach for regional disaster prevention and climate resilience. Full article

Assessing the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional precipitation variability is essential for understanding the associated hydrometeorological benefits and risks. This study quantifies the contribution of tropical cyclones to annual precipitation in the northernmost part of South America from 2016 to 2025, utilizing data from surface rain gauges. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with 2 km grid spacing and 38 vertical levels, estimate the influence of relative humidity at 850 hPa and ambient temperature at 500 hPa on precipitation over the continental region when each convective system is nearest to the coastline. During Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Melissa (2025), contributions to the annual average precipitation reached 51% and 47%, respectively, with the highest values observed near the northern South American coastline. The contributions of Harvey (2017), Iota (2020), Julia (2022), and Beryl (2024) to annual precipitation were 0–26%, 0–18%, 0–12%, and 0–19%, respectively. Precipitation distribution was heterogeneous during the passage of tropical storms. The extent of accumulated precipitation was influenced by the cyclone’s trajectory and proximity to mountainous regions. Patterns of relative humidity at 850 hPa did not correspond to a uniform precipitation distribution. Between 6% and 30% of rain gauges did not record precipitation during the analyzed tropical cyclone events. These findings highlight that tropical cyclone-induced precipitation is strongly influenced by complex interactions between atmospheric dynamics and topography. Future research should assess the contributions of these systems to groundwater and surface reservoirs that support indigenous communities in rural areas. Full article

Drought is a slowly evolving, multi-driver hydro-meteorological hazard whose accurate early prediction is a cornerstone of climate-smart agriculture and water-resource planning. Existing data-driven drought forecasting frameworks suffer from three persistent limitations: (i) most models concatenate heterogeneous climate variables into a single flat feature vector, implicitly assuming a single dominant driver such as precipitation, even though atmospheric moisture demand, radiation and wind-mediated evapotranspiration co-determine drought onset; (ii) wavelet preprocessing is typically applied to the full series, introducing future-information leakage that violates the operational causality requirement of forecasting; and (iii) most architectures predict a single horizon and provide no causal attribution explaining when, where and which climatic variables initiated the event. This study proposes WaveDroughtNet, a multi-modal, multi-horizon deep-learning framework that addresses these limitations through five integrated components: (a) a strictly causal Daubechies-4 wavelet decomposition computed in a rolling fashion; (b) six modality-specific encoders with stochastic modality dropout (p = 0.15); (c) cross-modal multi-head attention with four heads; (d) a four-layer temporal convolutional network (TCN) backbone with dilation factors yielding a 240-step receptive field; and (e) a post hoc DroughtOriginTracer that combines temporal attention, modal-attribution and inter-district propagation scans. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), used as the supervisory target, is computed following the canonical Vicente-Serrano formulation. water balance $D=P-\mathrm{P}\mathrm{E}\mathrm{T}$ (Hargreaves PET) at a 4-week (≈1-month) timescale, fitted with a three-parameter log-logistic distribution via L-moments, validated by Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit testing ($\alpha =0.05$) per district, and standardised through the inverse-normal cumulative distribution function. Trained on 18,304 weekly district records from NASA POWER reanalysis (2014–2025) covering all 32 districts of Tamil Nadu, India, WaveDroughtNet uses only 256,869 parameters and produces, in a single forward pass, four forecasts (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 1 year). On the held-out 2024 test partition ($N=1728$), the model attains weighted $F1=0.9221$ and $R^2=0.8512$ at the 1-week horizon, and weighted $F1=0.8498$ and $R^2=0.6812$ at the 1-year horizon. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm that WaveDroughtNet significantly outperforms naive persistence, seasonal naive, LSTM, ConvLSTM and a vanilla Transformer at the 3-month and 1-year horizons (p < 0.001). The DroughtOriginTracer successfully back-projects 15 Coimbatore events to causal origins 29–41 weeks prior to onset. We explicitly acknowledge three limitations that constrain operational deployment in its current form—zero severe events in the 2024 test partition ($F{1}_{severe}$ = 0.000), static inter-district modelling, and absence of vegetation-index supervision—and propose concrete mitigation pathways in the Discussion. Full article

The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique provides global ocean surface wind observations unaffected by rainfall with high spatiotemporal resolution. The Fengyun-3E (FY-3E) mission, as the first operational GNSS-R satellite in China, offers low-latency data suitable for numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, the dense along-track sampling of GNSS-R winds poses challenges for observation error specification in data assimilation. In this study, FY-3E GNSS-R winds are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the impacts of different observation error configurations. Both static and dynamic error specifications, with and without data thinning, are evaluated through a sensitivity experiment and subsequent Observing System Experiments (OSEs). The results indicate that using a static observation error of 6 m/s without data thinning achieves the best performance. Under this configuration, GNSS-R winds influence atmospheric analyses from the surface up to approximately 700 hPa in a single assimilation case, while cycling experiments further extend the impact vertically and spatially. These findings highlight the importance of appropriate observation error specification for dense GNSS-R data and provide a practical reference for their assimilation in WRF, with potential applicability to other NWP systems. Full article

The ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat exchange plays a critical role in the energy and moisture budgets of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO) and in weather and climate forecasts. However, its estimation strongly depends on the choice of bulk parameterization, as direct in situ measurements are sparse. This study evaluates sensible (Hs) and latent (Hl) heat fluxes derived from three bulk parameterization schemes used operationally in models at the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil: the Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM), the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using daily in situ observations from seven Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) buoys across the TAO during 1997–2023, we computed monthly mean fluxes and compared them against the Coupled Ocean–atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) algorithm version 3.0b (COARE 3.0b) reference. COARE version 3.6 (COARE 3.6) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) data were included as additional benchmarks. All offline schemes were forced with identical buoy data, isolating differences in internal physical assumptions. Hl is approximately one order of magnitude larger than Hs across all sites, and inter-scheme differences are substantially larger for Hl (±50 W∙m⁻²) than for Hs (±5 W∙m⁻²). All schemes reproduce the seasonal cycle linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migration and trade-wind variability, with correlations generally exceeding 0.8 (p < 0.001) for most buoys. However, systematic magnitude biases remain. The Coordinated Ocean Research Experiments (CORE) bulk formulation implemented in MOM6 (MOM6-CORE) shows high temporal correlation (often r ≈ 1.0) but a persistent negative bias for both Hs and Hl (e.g., B1 Hl bias = −24.0 W∙m⁻²), indicating weaker turbulent exchange relative to COARE 3.0b. BAM overestimates Hs (by 1–3 W∙m⁻²) and underestimates Hl at most northern and southern sites, while the parametrization of the Yonsei University (YSU) implemented in the WRF model (WRF-YSU) amplifies Hs variability intermittently, particularly at the equator (B4). As expected, COARE 3.6 remains the closest to the reference (differences < 1 W∙m⁻² for Hs and <7 W∙m⁻² for Hl; r ≈ 0.99). ERA5 captures temporal variability well (r ≈ 0.7–0.9) but systematically overestimates Hl (positive bias up to +47.6 W∙m⁻² at B7), implying stronger evaporative cooling. Buoy-specific regimes modulate skill. The choice of bulk formulation thus remains a first-order source of uncertainty in turbulent heat flux estimates over the TAO, with direct implications for mixed-layer heat budgets, SST evolution, and coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. MOM6-CORE provides the most consistent performance relative to the COARE reference and emerges as the most robust option for operational applications at CPTEC/INPE. The findings also provide guidance for improving the representation of ocean–atmosphere turbulent exchanges in MONAN (Model for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Prediction), the new Brazilian Earth System Model under development for weather and climate prediction. Full article

The article presents the results of experimental studies on the possibility of predicting the efficiency of CO₂ mineralization using metallurgical wastes (MWs) from the perspective of chemical thermodynamics and on identifying, accordingly, promising MWs for the production of construction materials and products. The study examined MWs from major Russian iron and steel producers, namely: blast furnace, electric steelmaking, ferroalloy, converter steelmaking slag, as well as nepheline slag, a by-product of nepheline ore processing for alumina. The CO₂ binding capacity of MWs was determined using experimental samples fabricated by semi-dry pressing of MW powders, followed by curing them in a gas atmosphere with an CO₂ concentration of 80% vol. It was found that the investigated MWs are capable of absorbing and binding CO₂, thereby improving their physical and mechanical properties. Experimental samples made from nepheline slag bind 11.3 to 12.0 wt.% of CO₂; samples from steelmaking slags: up to 9 wt.% or more; and samples from blast furnace dump slag: approximately 5.5 wt.% At the same time, the compressive strength of samples from steelmaking slags exceeds 100 MPa, that of samples from nepheline slag approaches 80 MPa, and that of samples from blast furnace dump slag exceeds 50 MPa. It has been established that predicting the efficiency of CO₂ mineralization by metallurgical wastes based solely on chemical thermodynamics is not entirely accurate. To develop a preliminary forecasting model for the carbonate hardening potential of various MWs, further studies are needed to identify additional key factors influencing the carbonate hardening process of MWs. Full article

Anthropogenic emissions have caused the Antarctic ozone hole, a major global environmental crisis since the late 20th century. Although ozone recovery began in the early 21st century, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the timing of its return to pre-loss levels. This study innovatively develops a “model optimization–bias correction” framework based on spatial pattern (S1) and long-term trend (S2) metrics, assessing 17 Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase 1 (CCMI-1) models using the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis for the climate (ERA5). Results: (1) Most models accurately reproduce the Antarctic ozone’s spatial distribution and long-term trends: MRI-ESM1r1 performs best for spatial patterns (S1 = 0.80), GEOSCCM for long-term trends (S2 = 0.82); EMAC-L90MA, UMSLIMCAT, etc., show poor spatial pattern performance (S1 < 0.30), while IPSL and EMAC-L90MA have large trend biases and underperform in trend simulation (S2 < 0.10). (2) Integrating S1 and S2 scores, the Preferred Multi-Model Ensemble comprising the top eight models (PMME8) minimizes ERA5 deviation, outperforming the multi-model ensemble (MME); the Combined Nonstationary Cumulative Distribution Function matching (CNCDFm) correction of this ensemble reduces systematic bias by 15–60%. (3) Antarctic ozone recovery time shows a gradual delay following optimal model selection and bias correction. PMME-adjusted projects recovery in October 2063 (2053–2072), later than MME (2052) and PMME (2058), with inter-member uncertainty narrowing from 43 years to 19 years. Similarly, this feature is also found for September, November, and the spring mean. This study provides a reliable methodological foundation for projections of Antarctic ozone recovery and offers scientific support for the compliance assessment and policy adjustment of the Montreal Protocol, thereby advancing environmental sustainability and global ozone governance. Full article

Aiming at the problem that it is difficult for existing path planning methods to plan UAV paths in real time in complex atmospheric turbulence environments, this work proposes a dynamic path planning method for UAVs based on an improved artificial lemming algorithm. First, using temperature, pressure, and wind vectors from WRF/NWP forecast data, a dynamic turbulence-change environment model in the airspace is constructed. Then, a UAV dynamic path planning model is formulated by comprehensively considering the turbulence change rate and path safety evaluation factors. Next, to address premature convergence of existing algorithms under turbulence influence, a solving method for the UAV dynamic path planning model based on an improved artificial lemming algorithm is developed. Simulation results show that, under the proposed replanning mechanism, the improved algorithm reduces the final fitness by 36.19% and cumulative turbulence exposure by 16.28% on average compared with all competing methods. Full article