Search Results (177)

One difficulty that arises in tracking and forecasting real-time epidemics is reporting delays, which are defined as the inherent delay between the time of symptom onset and the time a case is reported. Reporting delays can be caused by delays in case detection, symptom onset after infection, seeking medical care, or diagnostics, and they distort the accurate forecasting of diseases during epidemics and pandemics. To address this, we introduce a practical nowcasting approach grounded in survival analysis and actuarial science, explicitly allowing for non-stationarity in reporting delay patterns to better capture real-world variability. Despite its relevance, no flexible and accessible toolbox currently exists for non-stationary delay adjustment. Here, we present Nowcast-It, a tutorial-based toolbox that includes two components: (1) an R code base for delay adjustment and (2) a user-friendly R-Shiny application to enable interactive visualization and reporting delay correction without prior coding expertise. The toolbox supports daily, weekly, or monthly resolution data and enables model performance assessment using metrics such as mean absolute error, mean squared error, and 95% prediction interval coverage. We demonstrate the utility of Nowcast-It toolbox using publicly available weekly Ebola case data from the Democratic Republic of Congo. We and others have adjusted for reporting delays in real-time analyses (e.g., Singapore) and produced early COVID-19 forecasts; here, we package those delay adjustment routines into an accessible toolbox. It is designed for researchers, students, and policymakers alike, offering a scalable and accessible solution for addressing reporting delays during outbreaks. Full article

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the leading cause of cancer-related death in Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory with noted disparities in CRC incidence, particularly among those with early-onset disease (EOCRC). Although EOCRC incidence has been consistently increasing in the U.S. mainland, and a disparate burden has been reported among Hispanics, EOCRC mortality and survival are yet to be assessed among Hispanics living in Puerto Rico (PRH). In this study, we analyzed EOCRC mortality and survival trends in PRH and compared these to those of other U.S. populations. Mortality data were obtained from the Puerto Rico Central Cancer Registry and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Descriptive characteristics and temporal trends were derived via SEER*Stat software (version 9.0.42) and Joinpoint regression models, respectively. Relative survival was estimated using the Actuarial method and the Ederer II approach. Overall, CRC mortality trends showed a decline, but an increase in EOCRC mortality among Hispanics. PRH exhibited the lowest 5-year survival in regional cancers (54.10%), with NHB having the lowest survival among younger individuals. This study highlights significant disparities in EOCRC mortality trends and underscores an urgent need for targeted public health strategies and research efforts to address the disproportionate burden of EOCRC among PRH. Full article

Modeling loss data is a crucial aspect of actuarial science. In the insurance industry, small claims occur frequently, while large claims are rare. Traditional heavy-tail distributions, such as Weibull, Log-Normal, and Inverse Gaussian distributions, are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often exhibit skewness and fat tails. The literature has explored classical and Bayesian inference methods for the parameters of composite distributions, such as the Exponential–Pareto, Weibull–Pareto, and Inverse Gamma–Pareto distributions. These models effectively separate small to moderate losses from significant losses using a threshold parameter. This research aims to introduce a new composite distribution, the Gamma–Pareto distribution with two parameters, and employ a numerical computational approach to find the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of its parameters. A novel computational approach for a nonlinear regression model where the loss variable is distributed as the Gamma–Pareto and depends on multiple covariates is proposed. The maximum likelihood (ML) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to estimate the regression parameters. The Fisher information matrix, along with a multivariate normal distribution as the prior distribution, is utilized through the ABC method. Simulation studies indicate that the ABC method outperforms the ML method in terms of accuracy. Full article

Annuity insurance is a crucial financial tool for mitigating risks associated with aging, yet it has not gained significant traction in China’s insurance market, especially amid the challenges posed by an aging population. This study develops a discrete-time multi-period life-cycle model to analyze optimal annuity purchases for China’s middle-aged population under disability risk and explores in depth the impact and underlying mechanisms of disability risk on their annuity insurance purchase decisions. Disability is endogenized via two channels: financial-constraint effects (medical costs and pre-retirement income loss) and stochastic health state transitions with recovery and mortality. Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2018–2020) to estimate age- and gender-specific transition matrices and data from China Household Finance Survey (2019) to link income with initial assets, we solve the model by the endogenous grid method and simulate actuarially fair annuities. The findings reveal substantial under-demand for annuities among China’s middle-aged population. Under inflation, the modest yield premium of annuities over inflation significantly depresses purchases by middle- and low-wealth households, while high-wealth individuals are jointly constrained by rapidly rising health expenditures and inadequate annuity returns. Notably, behavioral patterns could shift fundamentally under a hypothetical zero-inflation scenario. Full article

This paper introduces a new class of probability distributions, termed the generated log exponentiated polynomial (GLEP) family, designed to enhance flexibility in modeling complex real financial data. The proposed family is constructed through a novel cumulative distribution function that combines logarithmic and exponentiated polynomial structures, allowing for rich distributional shapes and tail behaviors. We present comprehensive mathematical properties, including useful series expansions for the density, cumulative, and quantile functions, which facilitate the derivation of moments, generating functions, and order statistics. Characterization results based on the reverse hazard function and conditional expectations are established. The model parameters are estimated using various frequentist methods, including Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), Cramer–von Mises (CVM), Anderson–Darling (ADE), Right Tail Anderson–Darling (RTADE), and Left Tail Anderson–Darling (LEADE), with a comparative simulation study assessing their performance. Risk analysis is conducted using actuarial key risk indicators (KRIs) such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR), Tail Variance (TV), Tail Mean Variance (TMV), and excess function (EL), demonstrating the model’s applicability in financial and insurance contexts. The practical utility of the GLEP family is illustrated through applications to real and simulated datasets, including house price dynamics and insurance claim sizes. Peaks Over Random Threshold Value-at-Risk (PORT-VaR) analysis is applied to U.K. motor insurance claims and U.S. house prices datasets. Some recommendations are provided. Finally, a comparative study is presented to prove the superiority of the new family. Full article

The Building Houses on Rented Land Model (BHRLM) was a pivotal land development model that drove Shanghai’s urbanization in the early modern era. This research examines the spatial generative mechanism of the Prepaid Building Houses on Rented Land Model (PBHRLM), prevalent during 1938–1941. It reveals how the wartime economic environment enabled interest alliances constituted with developers, landowners, and tenants to stimulate urban spatial growth. Firstly, we aim to analyze the features of architectural types linked to the PBHRLM using data-driven methods. Secondly, we aim to apply financial capital theory to investigate the innovations of financing methods. Finally, we draw on speculation theory to establish connections between the features of architectural types and the innovations of financing methods. The results include the following: (1) The PBHRLM’s dominant architectural types—new-styled lane houses, semi-shikumen lane houses, and garden houses—shared low-rise, high-density spatial features. (2) The PBHRLM’s innovations of financing methods lie in its convergence of financing and profitability, reflecting developers’ speculative intent. The research concludes that the PBHRLM operated as a spatial actuarial practice. Through risk games, the developers utilized the model to liberate land development from the control of financial capital and achieved multi-stakeholder synergy, generating small-scale, dispersed land development patterns. At the same time, surging housing demand thus perpetuated architectural types catering to the middle class with low-rise, low-tech tectonics and independent dwelling styles that continued to densely populate Shanghai concessions. Full article

Estimating skewness and kurtosis from real-world data remains a long-standing challenge in actuarial science and financial risk management, where these higher-order moments are critical for capturing asymmetry and tail risk. Traditional moment-based estimators are known to be highly sensitive to outliers and often fail when the assumption of normality is violated. Despite numerous extensions—from robust moment-based methods to quantile-based measures—being proposed over the decades, no universally satisfactory solution has been reported, and many existing methods exhibit limited effectiveness, particularly under challenging distributional shapes. In this paper we propose a novel method that jointly estimates skewness and kurtosis based on a regression adaptation of the Cornish–Fisher expansion. By modeling the empirical quantiles as a cubic polynomial of the standard normal variable, the proposed approach produces a reliable and efficient estimator that better captures distributional shape without strong parametric assumptions. Our comprehensive simulation studies show that the proposed method performs much better than existing estimators across a wide range of distributions, especially when the data are skewed or heavy-tailed, as is typical in actuarial and financial applications. Full article

Trust in robots is often analyzed with scales built for either humans or automation, making cross-species comparisons imprecise. Addressing that gap, this paper distils decades of trust scholarship, from clinical vs. actuarial judgement to modern human–robot teaming, into a lean two-factor framework: Mortal vs. Machine (MvM). We first surveyed classic technology-acceptance and automation-reliance research and then integrated empirical findings in human–robot interaction to identify diagnostic cues that can be instantiated by both human and machine agents. The model includes (i) ability—perceived task competence and reliability—and (ii) value congruence—alignment of decision weights and trade-off priorities. Benevolence, oft-included in trust studies, was excluded because current robots cannot manifest genuine goodwill and existing items elicit high dropout. The resulting scale travels across contexts, allowing for researchers to benchmark a robot against a human co-worker on identical terms and enabling practitioners to pinpoint whether performance deficits or priority clashes drive acceptance. By reconciling anthropocentric and technocentric trust literature in a deployable diagnostic, MvM offers a field-ready tool and a conceptual bridge for future studies of AI-empowered robotics. Full article

Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies. Full article

This study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To conduct a comparative analysis of mortality estimates, two classical models were employed: the Lee–Carter and the Renshaw–Haberman models. The analysis involved utilising actuarial tables and mortality models to quantify pandemic-induced excess deaths by calculating the disparity between these estimates. The proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive and clear understanding of the impact of the pandemic on mortality in Italy. Full article

This study evaluates the current Spanish insurance framework for catastrophic flood risk, administered by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS), based on nationwide loss data reported by the CCS for the period 1996–2020. The analysis of historical claims data enables a clear differentiation between frequent, low-cost events and infrequent, high-impact catastrophes. While the CCS has fulfilled a critical role in post-disaster compensation, the findings highlight the parallel need for ex ante risk mitigation strategies. The study proposes a more efficient, two-tier risk coverage model. Events whose impacts can be managed through standard insurance mechanisms should be underwritten by private insurers using actuarially fair premiums. In contrast, events with catastrophic implications—due to their scale or financial impact—should be addressed through general solidarity mechanisms, centrally managed by the CCS. Such a risk segmentation would improve the financial sustainability of the system and create fiscal space for prevention-oriented incentives. The current design of the CCS scheme may generate moral hazard, as flood exposure is not explicitly priced into the premium structure. Empirical findings support a shift towards a more transparent, incentive-aligned model that combines collective risk sharing with individual risk responsibility—an essential balance for effective climate adaptation and long-term resilience. Full article

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is a high-risk cardiovascular interventional procedure with a high incidence of postoperative complications, urgently requiring more refined risk identification and mitigation strategies. The main challenges in assessing the risk of TAVR complications lie in the scarcity of real-world data and the co-occurrence of multiple complications. This study developed an adjustment evaluation model that adapts randomised clinical trial (RCT) evidence to real-world data (RWD) and adopted multi-label classification methods that incorporate a LocalGLMnet-like regularization term, enabling data-adaptive parameter shrinkage for more accurate estimation. In the empirical analysis, with real surgical data from a hospital in the United States, a combination of multi-label random sampling and representative multi-label classification algorithms was used to fit the data. The model was compared across multiple evaluation metrics, including Hamming loss, ranking loss, and micro-AUC, to ensure robust results. The model used in this paper bridges the gap between medical risk prediction and insurance actuarial science, provides a practical data modelling foundation and algorithmic support for the future development of post-operative complication insurance products that precisely align with clinical risk. Full article

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating transition intensities in a multi-state model for disability and long-term care insurance. We propose a novel framework that integrates observable risk factors, such as demographic (age and sex), lifestyle (smoking and exercise habits) and health-related variables (body mass index), into the estimation and graduation of transition intensities, using a parametric approach based on the Gompertz–Makeham law and generalised linear models. The model features four states—autonomous, dead, and two intermediate states representing varying disability levels—providing a detailed view of disability/lack of autonomy progression. To illustrate the proposed framework, we simulate a dataset with individual risk profiles and model trajectories, mirroring Portugal’s demographic composition. This allows us to derive a functional form (as a function of age) for the transition intensities, stratified by relevant risk factors, thus enabling precise risk differentiation. The results offer a robust basis for developing tailored pricing structures in the Portuguese market, with broader applications in actuarial science and insurance. By combining granular disability modelling with risk factor integration, our approach enhances accuracy in pricing structure and risk assessment. Full article

Capital investment in longevity science—research targeting the biological processes of aging through interventions like cellular reprogramming, AI-driven drug discovery, and biological age monitoring—may create significant divergence between traditional actuarial projections and emerging mortality improvements. This paper examines how accelerating investment in life extension technologies affects mortality improvement trajectories beyond conventional actuarial assumptions, building on the comprehensive investment landscape analysis documented in “Investors in Longevity” supported by venture capital databases, industry reports, and regulatory filings. We introduce an Investment-Adjusted Mortality Model (IAMM) that incorporates capital allocation trends as leading indicators of mortality improvement acceleration. Under high-investment scenarios (annual funding of USD 15+ billion in longevity technologies), current insurance products may significantly underestimate longevity risk, creating potential solvency challenges. Our statistical analysis demonstrates that investment-driven mortality improvements—actual reductions in death rates resulting from new anti-aging interventions—could exceed traditional projections by 18–31% by 2040. We validate our model by backtesting historical data, showing improved predictive performance (35% reduction in MAPE) compared to traditional Lee–Carter approaches during periods of significant medical technology advancement. Based on these findings, we propose modified insurance structures, including dynamic mortality-linked products and biological age underwriting, quantifying their effectiveness in reducing longevity risk exposure by 42–67%. These results suggest the need for actuarial science to incorporate investment dynamics in response to the changing longevity investment environment detailed in “Investors in Longevity”. The framework presented provides both theoretically grounded and empirically tested tools for incorporating investment dynamics into mortality projections and insurance product design, addressing gaps in current risk management approaches for long-term mortality exposure. Full article

This paper introduces a new extension of exponentiated standard logistic distribution. Some important statistical properties of the novel family of distributions are discussed. A simulation study is also conducted to observe the behavior of the estimated parameter using several estimation methods. The adaptability as well as the flexibility of the new model is checked through two real-life applications. A comprehensive financial risk assessment is conducted using multiple actuarial risk measures: Peaks Over Random Threshold Value-at-Risk, Value-at-Risk, Tail Value-at-Risk, the risk-adjusted return on capital and the Mean of Order P. These indicators offer a nuanced view of risk by capturing different aspects of tail behavior, which are critical in understanding potential extreme losses. These risk indicators are applied to analyze actuarial financial claims data, providing a robust framework for assessing financial stability and decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Full article