Search Results (394)

As the climate problem is getting more and more serious and the “low-carbon revolution” of globalization is emerging, the logistics industry, as a high-end service industry, must also take the road of low-carbon development. Improving logistics carbon emission efficiency (LCEE) is gradually becoming an inevitable choice to maintain sustainable social development. The study uses the Super-SBM (Super-Slack-Based Measure) model to evaluate the urban LCEE from 2013 to 2022, explores the contribution of efficiency changes and technological progress to LCEE through the decomposition of the GML (Global Malmquist–Luenberger) index, and reveals the influence of digital transformation and energy consumption structure on LCEE by using the Spatial Durbin Model, concluding as follows: (1) LCEE declines from east to west, with large regional differences. (2) LCEE has steadily increased over the past decade, with slower growth from east to west. It fell in 2020 due to COVID-19 but has since recovered. (3) LCEE shows a catching-up effect among the three major regions, with technological progress being a key driver of improvement. (4) LCEE has significant spatial dependence. Energy consumption structure has a short-term negative spillover effect, while digital transformation has a positive spillover effect. Full article

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the connectedness dynamics among the sovereign bonds of the emerging seven (E7) and the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Initially, a quantile-based vector-autoregressive (Q-VAR) connectedness approach is used to calculate the total connectedness index (TCI) among sovereign bonds under different market states. Then, the impact of GPR on the TCI at the median and tails is estimated to examine if GPR affects the TCI among sovereign bonds. Using daily yields from 30 January 2012, to 17 June 2024, the findings show that the GPR is one of the significant determinants of the TCI among sovereign bonds during normal and extreme market conditions. Other determinants of the TCI include yields on Treasury bills (T-bills), the exchange rate, and the financial market volatility index. The impact of GPR on the TCI varies significantly during different GPR episodes and bond market conditions. The effect of GPR on the TCI among sovereign bonds yields is higher during war times and when bond yields are average. These findings can be utilized by investors seeking to achieve international diversification and policymakers aiming to mitigate the effects of heightened geopolitical risk on financial stability. Furthermore, GPR can be used as an early signal tool for systematic tail risk spillovers among sovereign bonds. Full article

Developing agricultural new productive forces (ANPF) according to local conditions is a key strategy for agricultural modernization. Using panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2022, this study constructed indicator systems for ANPF and the construction of a strong agricultural province (CSAP). The entropy-weight TOPSIS method was used to calculate the levels of ANPF and the SAP index. This study employed a modified gravity model and social network analysis (SNA) to investigate the spatial correlation and evolutionary characteristics of these networks. Geographical detectors were also used to identify the driving factors behind agricultural transformation. The findings indicate that both ANPF and CSAP showed an upward trend during the study period, with significant regional heterogeneity, with Central Anhui being the most prominent. This study revealed spatial spillover effects and strong network correlations between ANPF and CSAP, with the spatial network structure exhibiting characteristics of multi-core, multi-association, and multidimensional connections. The entities within the network are tightly connected, with no “isolated island” phenomenon, and Hefei, as the central hub, showed the highest number of connections. Laborer quality, tangible means of production, and new-quality industries emerged as the core driving forces, working in synergy to propel CSAP. This study contributes new insights into the spatial network dynamics of agricultural development and offers actionable recommendations for policymakers to enhance agricultural modernization globally. Full article

Climate change, resource scarcity, and ecological degradation have become critical bottlenecks constraining socio-economic development. Basin cities serve as key nodes in China’s ecological security pattern, playing indispensable roles in ecological civilization construction. This study established an evaluation index system spanning five dimensions to assess the effectiveness of ecological civilization construction. This study employs the entropy-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Back-Propagation (BP) neural network methods to evaluate the level of ecological civilization construction in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022, to analyze its indicator weights, and to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of each city. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Although the ecological civilization construction level of cities in the Yellow River Basin shows a steady improvement, significant regional development disparities persist. (2) The upper reaches are primarily constrained by ecological fragility and economic underdevelopment. The middle reaches exhibit significant internal divergence, with provincial capitals leading yet demonstrating limited spillover effects on neighboring areas. The lower reaches face intense anthropogenic pressures, necessitating greater economic–ecological coordination. (3) Among the dimensions considered, Territorial Space and Eco-environmental Protection emerged as the two most influential dimensions contributing to performance differences. According to the ecological civilization construction performance and changing characteristics of the 48 cities, this study proposes differentiated optimization measures and coordinated development pathways to advance the implementation of the national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Full article

This study aims to reveal the influence mechanism of innovation competition on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry in Chinese local governments. Additionally, the study provides a theoretical basis for understanding how governments’ investment in science and technology breaks through key technological bottlenecks, enhances the innovation ability of enterprises, and promotes the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. Based on balanced panel data of 269 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2021, the entropy value method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index of manufacturing development quality, and a two-way fixed-effect panel model is employed for the empirical analysis. The findings reveal that (1) for every 1% increase in local government investment in science and technology, the manufacturing high-quality development index will increase by 0.261%, indicating that local governments’ innovation competition significantly promotes the quality of manufacturing development; (2) enterprise innovation capacity plays a mediating role between government competition and manufacturing quality improvement; (3) the combined mechanism of innovation drive and promotion tournament results in a significant spatial strategic interaction of local governments’ innovation competition and a positive spillover effect on neighboring regions. Therefore, this study suggests that local governments implement different science and technology innovation investment strategies to optimize the allocation of innovation resources according to the regional manufacturing technology level. Full article

Utilizing data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2021, this study constructs an evaluation index system for high-quality economic development across the following five dimensions: innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing. A continuous difference-in-differences approach is employed for regression analysis to empirically examine the impact of high-speed rail on high-quality economic development, further exploring its mechanisms and spatial spillover effects. The findings reveal that (1) HSR significantly promotes high-quality economic development; (2) with the development of HSR, from 2005 to 2021, China’s high-quality economic development showed an evolutionary trend of overall improvement, with a gradual optimization of spatial patterns; (3) it facilitates high-quality economic development by enhancing capital and labor mobility, strengthening industrial chain resilience, and advancing industrial structure upgrading; (4) high-speed rail development in neighboring regions generates positive spatial spillover effects on local urban economic quality; and (5) the impact of high-speed rail on high-quality economic development exhibits significant heterogeneity across cities with different regions, tiers, scales, and resource endowments. These results confirm the positive role of high-speed rail in fostering high-quality economic development. Full article

As the relationship between cryptocurrency mining activities and electricity consumption becomes increasingly close, the risk spillover effect is steadily drawing a lot of attention to the energy and cryptocurrency markets. For the purpose of studying the risk contagion between the cryptocurrency and energy market, this paper constructs a risk contagion network between cryptocurrency and China’s energy market using complex network methods. The tail risk spillover effects under various time and frequency domains were captured by the spillover index, which was assessed by the leptokurtic quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model. Considering the spatial heterogeneity of energy companies, the spatial Durbin model was used to explore the impact mechanism of risk spillovers. The research showed that the framework of this paper more accurately reflects the tail risk spillover effect between China’s energy market and cryptocurrency market under various shock scales, with the extreme state experiencing a much higher spillover effect than the normal state. Furthermore, this study found that the tail risk contagion between cryptocurrency and China’s energy market exhibits notable dynamic variation and cyclical features, and the long-term risk spillover effect is primarily responsible for the total spillover. At the same time, the study found that the company with the most significant spillover effect does not necessarily have the largest company size, and other factors, such as geographical location and business composition, need to be considered. Moreover, there are spatial spillover effects among listed energy companies, and the connectedness between cryptocurrency and the energy market network generates an obvious impact on risk spillover effects. The research conclusions have an important role in preventing cross-contagion of risks between cryptocurrency and the energy market. Full article

This study investigates the coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency (CEE) and carbon balance (CB) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), aiming to support high-quality regional development and the realization of China’s “dual carbon” goals. Based on panel data from 74 cities in the YRB between 2006 and 2022, the Super-SBM model, Ecological Support Coefficient (ESC), and coupling coordination degree (CCD) model are applied to evaluate the synergy between CEE and CB. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms are analyzed using kernel density estimation, Moran’s I index, the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chains, and the XGBoost algorithm. The results reveal a generally low and declining level of CCD, with the upstream and midstream regions performing better than the downstream. Spatial clustering is evident, characterized by significant positive autocorrelation and high-high or low-low clusters. Although regional disparities in CCD have narrowed slightly over time, interregional differences remain the primary source of variation. The likelihood of leapfrog development in CCD is limited, and high-CCD regions exhibit weak spillover effects. Forest coverage is identified as the most critical driver, significantly promoting CCD. Conversely, population density, urbanization, energy structure, and energy intensity negatively affect coordination. Economic development demonstrates a U-shaped relationship with CCD. Moreover, nonlinear interactions among forest coverage, population density, energy structure, and industrial enterprise scale further intensify the complexity of CCD. These findings provide important implications for enhancing regional carbon governance and achieving balanced ecological-economic development in the YRB. Full article

This paper examines the firm-level carbon intensity of 83 constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index, constructs two distinct indexes from the 20 firms with the highest and lowest carbon intensities, and analyzes the connectedness of their annualized daily volatilities with four key external factors over the past 15 years. Our findings reveal that low-carbon stocks—often represented by high-tech and financial firms—tend to exhibit higher volatility, reflecting their more dynamic business environments and greater sensitivity to changes in revenue and profitability. In contrast, high-carbon companies, such as those in the utilities and energy sectors, display more stable demand patterns and are generally less exposed to abrupt market shocks. We also find that oil price shocks result in greater volatility spillovers for low-carbon stocks. Among external influences, the U.S. stock market and Treasury yield exert the most significant spillover effects, while crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar–Chinese yuan exchange rate act as net volatility recipients. Full article

This study investigates the cross-country spillover effects of investor sentiment, specifically Fear and Greed, between the United States and South Africa, within the broader context of increasing global financial integration and behavioral finance. Using monthly data from June 2007 to June 2024, this research constructs and tests the validity of a South African Fear and Greed Index, adapted from CNN’s U.S.-centric index, to better capture the unique dynamics and contribute to an alternate sentiment index for an emerging market. Employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) connectedness framework, this study quantifies both static and dynamic spillover effects via a vector autoregression-based variance decomposition model. The results reveal significant bidirectional sentiment transmission, with the U.S. acting as a dominant net transmitter and South Africa as a net receiver, along with notable cross-country effects closely linked to the global economic trend. Spillover intensity escalates during periods of global economic stress, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings highlight that the USA significantly influences South Africa and that the adapted SA Fear and Greed Index better accounts for South African market conditions. Full article

This paper investigates the spillover effects and transmission networks of systemic risk within China’s national economic sectors under extreme conditions from both time and frequency domain perspectives, building upon the spillover index methodology and calculating the ∆CoVaR index for Chinese industries. The findings indicate the following: (1) Extreme-risk spillovers synchronize across industries but exhibit pronounced time-varying peaks during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2015 crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Long-term spillovers dominate overall connectedness, highlighting the lasting impact of fundamentals and structural linkages. (3) In terms of risk volatility, Energy, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are most sensitive to systemic market shocks. (4) On the risk spillover effect, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, and Information Technology consistently act as net transmitters of extreme risk, while Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Financials, Telecom Services, Utilities, and Real Estate primarily serve as net receivers. Based on these findings, the paper suggests deepening the regulatory mechanisms for systemic risk, strengthening the synergistic effect of systemic risk measurement and early warning indicators, and coordinating risk monitoring, early warning, and risk prevention and mitigation. It further emphasizes the importance of avoiding fragmented regulation by establishing a joint risk prevention mechanism across sectors and departments, strengthening the supervision of inter-industry capital flows. Finally, it highlights the need to closely monitor the formation mechanisms and transmission paths of new financial risks under the influence of the pandemic to prevent the accumulation and eruption of risks in the post-pandemic era. Authorities must conduct annual “Industry Transmission Reviews” to map emerging risk nodes and supply-chain vulnerabilities, refine policy tools, and stabilize market expectations so as to forestall the build-up and sudden release of new systemic shocks. Full article

The digital economy has profoundly reshaped industrial organizational structures and the spatial distribution of cooperative agglomerations in the manufacturing and productive service sectors. To support the coordinated and sustainable development of China’s industries, it is essential to clarify how the digital economy influences industrial cooperative agglomeration. This study first constructs a comprehensive index system capturing the quality, quantity, and synergy of industrial cooperative agglomeration, enabling an evaluation of collaborative agglomeration levels across 30 Chinese provinces. Second, the relationship between the digital economy and industrial collaborative agglomeration is examined using both static and dynamic spatial panel models. Finally, the paper investigates regional disparities in this relationship across eastern, central, and western China. The results reveal the following findings: (1) The digital economy has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial collaborative agglomeration overall. (2) Dynamic spatial lag model results show an inverted U-shaped relationship, where the digital economy initially promotes but later inhibits industrial agglomeration, with notable temporal lags and spatial spillover effects. (3) In eastern China, digital economy growth suppresses local agglomeration while promoting it in neighboring regions; in the central region, it enhances local agglomeration but dampens it in adjacent areas; and in the western region, the relationship is nonlinear and U-shaped. Full article

This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on agricultural land conversion. Using a newspaper-based index of EPU and a comprehensive panel dataset covering 270 prefecture-level cities in China, we estimate a city fixed effects model to explore this relationship. Our results indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in EPU leads to a 22.2% increase in the conversion of agricultural land to urban residential, commercial, and industrial uses. This finding suggests that the surge in EPU triggered by the global financial crisis accounts for approximately 45% of the increase in agricultural land conversion. The adverse effect on agricultural land preservation mainly stems from intensified fiscal pressures and heightened demands on local governments to meet economic growth targets. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we employ the one-period lagged U.S. EPU index and its temporal variations as an instrument for China’s EPU, leveraging cross-country spillover effects. Our instrumental variable estimates confirm the validity of the land conversion effect and its underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that the effects of EPU are particularly pronounced in cities located in non-eastern China and those that depend heavily on fixed asset investment for local economic development. Finally, our analysis of potential policy interventions to mitigate EPU-induced agricultural land loss suggests that strengthening market-oriented reforms and reducing province-level quotas on agricultural land conversion can effectively offset the impact of rising EPU. Full article

This paper employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Directional–Spillover (TVP-VAR-DY) model to investigate the dynamic spillover effects among China’s energy, real estate, and stock markets from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on the impact of extreme events. The findings show that the total conditional spillover index (TCI) typically remains below 40% in the absence of extreme events, but significantly increases during such events, reaching 51.09% during the 2015 stock market crisis and nearing 60% during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Specifically, the oil and gas market exhibited a net spillover index of 4.61%, emerging as a major source of risk transmission. In contrast, the real estate market, which had a net spillover index of −9.38%, became a net risk absorber. The net spillover index indicates that the risk transmission role of different markets towards other markets is dynamically changing over time and is closely related to significant global or domestic economic events. These results indicate that extreme events not only directly impact specific markets but also rapidly propagate risks through complex inter-market linkages, exacerbating systemic risks. Therefore, it is recommended to enhance market monitoring, improve transparency, and optimize risk management strategies to cope with uncertainties in the global economy and financial markets. Full article

This study examines the relationship between stock prices, energy prices, and climate policy uncertainty using 11 sectoral stocks in the U.S. market. The evidence confirms that rising prices of energy commodities positively affect not only the energy and oil sector stocks but also create spillover effects across other sectors. Notably, all sectoral stocks, except Real Estate sector, show resilience to increases in crude oil and gasoline, suggesting potential hedging benefits. In addition, the findings reveal that sectoral stock returns are generally negatively affected by several types of uncertainty, including climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, oil price uncertainty, as well as energy and environmental regulation-induced equity market volatility and the energy uncertainty index. These adverse effects are present across sectors, with few exceptions. The evidence reveals that the feedback effect between changes in climate policy uncertainty and changes in oil prices has an adverse impact on stock returns. Omitting these uncertainty factors from analyses could lead to biased estimates in the relationship between stock prices and energy prices. Full article