Search Results (53)

Anomalous ionospheric disturbances have been observed as potential precursors to earthquakes. This study utilized data from the CSES satellite to investigate anomalies in the ULF band ionospheric electric field and electron density preceding earthquakes with magnitudes of Ms ≥ 6.0 in China and neighboring regions from 2019 to 2021. Comparative analysis with a randomly generated earthquake catalog indicated that these anomalies were spatially concentrated over the epicenter and temporally clustered on specific dates prior to the events. To assess the global relevance of these findings, the analysis was extended to earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 worldwide during the same period, revealing consistent spatiotemporal patterns of ionospheric anomalies in both regional and global datasets. Furthermore, by combining the two earthquake catalogs and classifying events into oceanic and continental categories, additional statistical analyses were conducted to identify distinct ionospheric disturbance patterns associated with these different tectonic environments. These results provide a solid foundation for future research aimed at identifying and extracting ionospheric anomalies as potential pre-earthquake indicators. Full article

Earthquake prediction is one of the most challenging enterprises of science. Any prediction system must be based on the search for a precursor appearing during the preparation phase of an earthquake in the ground, atmosphere, or ionosphere that can anticipate its occurrence. We present methods to detect potential pre-earthquake anomalies. In particular, we show the analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric, and ionospheric data and the detection of anomalies under specific criteria. When we apply these methods retrospectively, we find that their accuracy goes from 69% to 83%. The combination of two or more methods is expected to improve the accuracy. Full article

Atmospheric responses to earthquakes or volcanic eruptions have become an interesting topic and can potentially contribute to future forecasting of these events. Extensive anomalies of the total electron content (TEC) are most often linked with geomagnetic storms or Earth-dependent phenomena, like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or nuclear explosions. This study extends rarely discussed, but very frequent, interactions between tectonic plate boundaries and the ionosphere. Our investigations focus on the very frequent occurrence of TEC enhancements not exclusively linked with individual seismic phenomena but located over tectonic plate boundaries. The objective of this study is to provide a review of the global spatiotemporal distribution of TEC anomalies, facilitating the discussion of their potential relations with tectonic activity. We apply a Kriging-based UPC-IonSAT quarter-of-an-hour time resolution rapid global ionospheric map (UQRG) from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC) IonSAT group for the detection of relative vertical TEC (VTEC) changes. Our study describes global relative and normalized VTEC variations, which have spatial and temporal behaviours strongly indicating their relationship both with geomagnetic changes and the tectonic plate system. The variations in geomagnetic fields, including the storms, disturb the ionosphere and amplify TEC variations persisting for several hours over tectonic plate boundaries, mostly over the diverging ones. The seismic origin of the selected parts of these TEC enhancements and depletions and their link with tectonic plate edges are suspected from their duration, shape, and location. The changes in TEC originating from both sources can be observed separately or together, and therefore, there is an open question about the directions of the energy transfers. However, the importance of geomagnetic field lines seems to be probable, due to the frequent common occurrence of both types of TEC anomalies. This research also proves that permanent observation of global lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) is also important in time periods without strong earthquake or volcanic events. The occurrence of TEC variations over diverging tectonic plate boundaries, sometimes combined with travelling anomalies of geomagnetic origin, can add to the studies on earthquake precursors and forecasting. Full article

Focusing on major earthquakes (EQs; MS ≥ 7) in Western China, this study primarily analyzes the fluctuation in Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) before and after the Wenchuan, Yushu, Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, and Maduo EQs via Climatological Analysis of Seismic Precursors Identification (CAPRI). The distribution of vertical ACP revealed distinct altitude-dependent characteristics. The ACP at lower atmospheric layers (100–2000 m) exhibited a high correlation, and this correlation decreased with increasing altitude. Anomalies were detected within one month prior to each of the five EQs studied, with the majority occurring 14 to 30 days before the events, followed by a few additional anomalies. The spatial distribution of anomalies is consistent with the distribution of fault zones, with noticeable fluctuation in surrounding areas. The ACP at an altitude of 200 m gave a balance between sensitivity to seismic signals and minimal surface interference and proved to be optimal for EQ monitoring in Western China. The results offer a significant reference for remote sensing studies related to EQ monitoring and the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, thereby advancing our understanding of pre-seismic atmospheric variations in Western China. Full article

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effect of earthquake (EQ) preparation on changes in meteorological parameters. The two physical quantities of temperature (T)/relative humidity (Hum) and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) have been investigated with the use of the Japanese meteorological “open” data of AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System), which is a very dense “ground-based” network of meteorological stations with higher temporal and spatial resolutions than the satellite remote sensing open data. In order to obtain a clearer identification of any seismogenic effect, we have used the AMeDAS station data at local midnight (LT = 01 h) and our initial target EQ was chosen to be the famous 1995 Kobe EQ of 17 January 1995 (M = 7.3). Initially, we performed conventional statistical analysis with confidence bounds and it was found that the Kobe station (very close to the EQ epicenter) exhibited conspicuous anomalies in both physical parameters on 10 January 1995, just one week before the EQ, exceeding m (mean) + 3σ (standard deviation) in T/Hum and well above m + 2σ in ACP within the short-term window of one month before and two weeks after an EQ. When looking at the whole period of over one year including the day of the EQ, in the case of T/Hum only we detected three additional extreme anomalies, except in winter, but with unknown origins. On the other hand, the anomalous peak on 10 January 1995 was the largest for ACP. Further, the spatial distributions of the anomaly intensity of the two quantities have been presented using about 40 stations to provide a further support to the close relationship of this peak with the EQ. The above statistical analysis has been compared with an analysis with recent machine/deep learning methods. We have utilized a combinational use of NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous inputs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, which was successful in objectively re-confirming the anomalies in both parameters on the same day prior to the EQ. The combination of these analysis results elucidates that the meteorological anomalies on 10 January 1995 are considered to be a notable precursor to the EQ. Finally, we suggest a joint examination of our two meteorological quantities for their potential use in real short-term EQ prediction, as well as in the future lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) studies as the information from the bottom part of LAIC. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive investigation into ionospheric perturbations associated with the Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Noto Peninsula in January 2024, utilizing data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) network. Focusing on Total Electron Content (TEC), the analysis incorporates spatial mapping and temporal pattern assessments over a 30-day period before the earthquake. The time series for TEC at the closest station to the epicenter, USUD, reveals a localized decline, with a significant negative anomaly exceeding 5 TECU observed 22 and 23 days before the earthquake, highlighting the potential of TEC variations as seismic precursors. Similar patterns were observed at a nearby station, MIZU, strengthening the case for a seismogenic origin. Positive anomalies were linked to intense space weather episodes, while the most notable negative anomalies occurred under geomagnetically calm conditions, further supporting their seismic association. Using Kriging interpolation, the anomaly zone was shown to closely align with the earthquake’s epicenter. To assess the consistency of TEC anomalies in different seismic events, the study also examines the Mw 7.1 Nichinan earthquake in August 2024. The results reveal a prominent negative anomaly, reinforcing the reliability of TEC depletions in seismic precursor detection. Additionally, spatial correlation analysis of Pearson correlation across both events demonstrates that TEC coherence diminishes with increasing distance, with pronounced correlation decay beyond 1000–1600 km. This spatial decay, consistent with Dobrovolsky’s earthquake preparation area, strengthens the association between TEC anomalies and seismic activity. This research highlights the complex relationship between ionospheric anomalies and seismic events, underscoring the value of TEC analysis as tool for earthquake precursor detection. The findings significantly enhance our understanding of ionospheric dynamics related to seismic events, advocating for a comprehensive, multi-station approach in future earthquake prediction efforts. Full article

This study demonstrates a rich complexity of the time–frequency ionospheric signal spectrum, dependent on the measurement type and platform. Different phenomena contributing to satellite-derived and ground-derived geophysical data that only selected signal bands can be potentially sensitive to seismicity over time, and they are applicable in lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) studies. In this study, satellite-derived and ground-derived ionospheric observations are filtered by a Fourier-based band-pass filter, and an experimental selection of potentially sensitive frequency bands has been carried out. This work focuses on band-pass filtered ionospheric observations and seismic activity in the region of the Aegean Sea over a two-year time period (2020–2021), with particular focus on the entire system of tectonic plate junctions, which are suspected to be a potential source of ionospheric disturbances distributed over hundreds of kilometers. The temporal evolution of seismicity power in the Aegean region is represented by the record of earthquakes characterized by M ≥ 4.5, used for the estimation of cumulative seismic energy. The ionospheric response to LAIC is explored in three data types: short inspections of in situ electron density (Ne) over a tectonic plate boundary by Swarm satellites, stationary determination of three Ne density profile parameters by the Athens Digisonde station AT138 (maximum frequency of the F2 layer: foF2; maximum frequency of the sporadic E layer: foEs; and frequency spread: ff), and stationary measure of vertical total electron content (VTEC) interpolated from a UPC-IonSAT Quarter-of-an-hour time resolution Rapid Global ionospheric map (UQRG) near Athens. The spectrograms are made with the use of short-term Fourier transform (STFT). These frequency bands in the spectrograms, which show a notable coincidence with seismicity, are filtered out and compared to cumulative seismic energy in the Aegean Sea, to the geomagnetic Dst index, to sunspot number (SN), and to the solar radio flux (F10.7). In the case of Swarm, STFT allows for precise removal of long-wavelength Ne signals related to specific latitudes. The application of STFT to time series of ionospheric parameters from the Digisonde station and GIM VTEC is crucial in the removal of seasonal signals and strong diurnal and semi-diurnal signal components. The time series formed from experimentally selected wavebands of different ionospheric observations reveal a moderate but notable correlation with the seismic activity, higher than with any solar radiation parameter in 8 out of 12 cases. The correlation coefficient must be treated relatively and with caution here, as we have not determined the shift between seismic and ionospheric events, as this process requires more data. However, it can be observed from the spectrograms that some weak signals from selected frequencies are candidates to be related to seismic processes. Full article

The purpose of this paper is, first of all, to review the previous works on the seismic (or earthquake (EQ)-related) direct current (DC) (or quasi-stationary) electric fields in the lower atmosphere, which is likely to be generated by the conductivity current flowing in the closed atmosphere–ionosphere electric circuit during the preparation phase of an EQ. The current source is electromotive force (EMF) caused by upward convective transport and the gravitational sedimentation of radon and charged aerosols injected into the atmosphere by soil gasses during the course of the intensification of seismic processes. The theoretical calculations predict that pre-EQ DC electric field enhancement in the atmosphere can reach the breakdown value at the altitudes 2–6 km, suggesting the generation of a peculiar seismic-related thundercloud. Then, we propose to apply this theoretical inference to the observational results of seismogenic VHF (very high frequency) and VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) natural radio emissions. The formation of such a peculiar layer initiates numerous chaotic electrical discharges within this region, leading to the generation of VHF electromagnetic radiation. Earlier works on VHF seismogenic radiation performed in Greece have been compared with the theoretical estimates, and showed a good agreement in the frequency range and intensity. The same idea can also be applied, for the first time, to seismogenic VLF/LF lightning discharges, which is completely the same mechanism with conventional cloud-to-ground lightning discharges. In fact, such seismogenic VLF/LF lightning discharges have been observed to appear before an EQ. So, we conclude in this review that both seismogenic VHF radiation and VLF/LF lightning discharges are regarded as indirect evidence of the generation of anomalous electric fields in the lowest atmosphere due to the emanation of radioactive radon and charged aerosols during the preparation phase of EQs. Finally, we have addressed the most fundamental issue of whether VHF and VLF/LF radiation reported in earlier works is either of atmospheric origin (as proposed in this paper) or of lithospheric origin as the result of microfracturing in the EQ fault region, which has long been hypothesized. This paper will raise a question regarding this hypothesis of lithospheric origin by proposing an alternative atmospheric origin outlined in this review. Also, the data on seismogenic electromagnetic radiation and its inference on perturbations in the lower atmosphere will be suggested to be extensively integrated in future lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) studies. Full article

The Lithospheric–Atmospheric–Ionospheric Coupling (LAIC) mechanism stands as the leading model for the prediction of seismic activities. It consists of a cascade of physical processes that are initiated days before a major earthquake. The onset is marked by the discharge of ionized gases, such as radon, through subterranean fissures that develop in the lead-up to the quake. This discharge augments the ionization at the lower atmospheric layers, instigating disturbances that extend from the Earth’s surface to the lower ionosphere. A critical component of the LAIC sequence involves the distinctive perturbations of Extremely Low Electromagnetic Frequencies (ELF) within the Schumann Resonances (SR) spectrum of 2 to 50 Hz, detectable days ahead of the seismic event. Our study examines 10 earthquakes that transpired over a span of 3.5 months—averaging nearly three quakes monthly—which concurrently generated 45 discernible potential precursor seismic signals. Notably, each earthquake originated in Southern Greece, within a radius of 30 to 250 km from the observatory on Mount Parnon. Our research seeks to resolve two important issues. The first concerns the association between specific ELF signals and individual earthquakes—a question of significant importance in seismogenic regions like Greece, where earthquakes occur frequently. The second inquiry concerns the parameters that determine the detectability of an earthquake by a given station, including the requisite proximity and magnitude. Initial findings suggest that SR signals can be reliably linked to a particular earthquake if the observatory is situated within the earthquake’s preparatory zone. Conversely, outside this zone, the correlation becomes indeterminate. Additionally, we observe a differentiation in SR signals based on whether the earthquake took place over land or offshore. The latter category exhibits unique signal behaviors, potentially attributable to the water layers above the epicenter acting as a barrier to the ascending gases, thereby affecting the atmospheric–ionospheric ionization process. Full article

The preparation phase of earthquakes (EQs) has been investigated by making full use of multi-parameter and multi-layer observations of EQ precursors, in order to better understand the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process. For this purpose, we chose a specific target EQ, the huge EQ of Fukushima-ken-oki EQ on 13 February 2021 (magnitude M_j = 7.3). We initially reported on EQ precursors in different physical parameters not only of the lithosphere, but also of the atmosphere and ionosphere (Hayakawa et al. followed by Akhoondzadeh et al. and Draz et al., both based on satellite observations). Our first two papers dealt with seven electromagnetic precursors in the three layers (with emphasis on our own ground-based observations in the atmosphere and lower ionosphere), while the second paper dealt with Swarm satellite observations of magnetic field, electron density, and GPS TEC in the ionosphere, and the third paper dealt only with climatological parameters on and above the Earth’s surface (together with GPS TEC). We have extensively reviewed all of these results, and have coordinated the temporal evolutions of various physical parameters relevant to the LAIC system; we have sought to understand which hypothesis is more plausible in explaining the LAIC process. Then, we came to a conclusion that two possible LAIC channels seem to exist simultaneously for this EQ: a fast channel (nearly simultaneous responses on the ground and ionosphere), and a slow channel (or diffusion-type), with a time delay of a few to several days, in which the agent effects in the lithosphere and lowest atmosphere seem to propagate up to the ionosphere with a definite time delay. Finally, we have suggested some research directions for the future elucidation of LAIC channels, and also made some comments on an early EQ warning system. Full article

On 6 February 2023, Turkey experienced its most powerful earthquake in over 80 years, with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.7. This was then followed by a second earthquake of Mw 7.6 just nine hours later. According to the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models, such a significant seismic activity is expected to cause anomalies across various observables, from the Earth’s surface to the ionosphere. This multidisciplinary study investigates the preparatory phase of these two major earthquakes by identifying potential precursors across the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere. Our comprehensive analysis successfully identified and collected various anomalies, revealing that their cumulative occurrence follows an accelerating trend, either exponential or power-law. Most anomalies appeared to progress from the lithosphere upward through the atmosphere to the ionosphere, suggesting a sequential chain of processes across these geospheres. Notably, some anomalies deviated from this overall trend, manifesting as oscillating variations. We propose that these anomalies support a two-way coupling model preceding major earthquakes, highlighting the potential role of fluid chemistry in facilitating these processes. Full article

In this study, a TEC variation window value was selected based on the wavelet power spectrum method to analyze the seismic–ionospheric coupling relationship. In the full-time domain, a 27-day periodicity of the wavelet power spectrum was obtained that passed the 95% significance test. The sliding interquartile range method was used to analyze earthquakes above Mw6.5 in Japan from 2011 to 2022, excluding the hybrid effects between earthquakes close to one another. The sunspot number (SSN), 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7), total solar irradiance (TSI), solar wind velocity (Vsw), geomagnetic activity index in the equatorial region (DST), and global geomagnetic activity index (KP) were used as indices representing solar and geomagnetic activity. After removing solar and geomagnetic interference from ionospheric anomaly changes using the sliding interquartile range method, the TEC anomaly changes before the earthquake were verified as being caused by the earthquake and analyzed. The statistical analysis of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies showed that earthquake magnitude was positively correlated with the amplitude of TEC anomalies but not linearly. The occurrence time of ionospheric anomalies lagged behind to some extent with the increase in earthquake magnitude. Additionally, abnormal changes on the 29th day (15 February 2022) before the 20th earthquake did not conform to previous research rules. According to the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionospheric coupling (LAIC) mechanism and global ionospheric map (GIM) studies, the TEC anomaly was consistent with the vertical projection of the epicenter with obvious regularity. The results show that these TEC anomalies may be related to earthquakes. Full article

This paper presents an analysis of anomalies detected during the preparatory phase of the 9 November 2022 M_L = 5.7 earthquake, occurring approximately 30 km off the coast of the Marche region in the Adriatic Sea (Italy). It was the largest earthquake in Italy in the last 5 years. According to lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models, such earthquake could induce anomalies in various observable variables, from the Earth’s surface to the ionosphere. Therefore, a multiparametric and multilayer approach based on ground and satellite data collected in each geolayer was adopted. This included the revised accelerated moment release method, the identification of anomalies in atmospheric parameters, such as Skin Temperature and Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and ionospheric signals, such as Es and F2 layer parameters from ionosonde measurements, magnetic field from Swarm satellites, and energetic electron precipitations from NOAA satellites. Several anomalies were detected in the days preceding the earthquake, revealing that their cumulative occurrence follows an exponential trend from the ground, progressing towards the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere. This progression of anomalies through different geolayers cannot simply be attributed to chance and is likely associated with the preparation phase of this earthquake, supporting the LAIC approach. Full article

The coupling processes among the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere (LAI) during the earthquake preparation phase are still an open scientific debate. Comprehensive LAI coupling effects around the 2022 Ms6.8 Luding earthquake in China are investigated with a multi-parameter and multi-layer approach, including the b-value, revised accelerated moment release, Earth resistivity, ELF magnetic field emissions, atmospheric electric field, surface temperature, foF2 from ionosonde, GNSS TEC, Ne and magnetic field from CSES and Swarm satellites, and energetic electrons from CSES and NOAA satellites. It is found that the anomalies start from the lithospheric parameters as Earth resistivity and b-values 1–2 years before to reflect the local stress loading in the seismic region, then the ionospheric and atmospheric disturbances occur and accelerate −50 days before and −15 days before, and finally the electrons precipitate a few days before. The simultaneous perturbations in LAI illustrate the thermodynamic coupling channel, such as on 24 August, −12 days before. Meanwhile, the abundant developed ionospheric anomalies without atmospheric disturbances demonstrate the electromagnetic coupling way from the lithosphere to the ionosphere directly. Finally, the results demonstrate a two-way model of LAIC: one way is characterized by a slow chain of processes, of thermodynamic nature, starting from the ground and proceeding to the above atmosphere and ionosphere, showing an exponential trend in the cumulative number of anomalies; the second way is characterized by oscillating electromagnetic coupling between the lithosphere and ionosphere, showing intermittent fluctuations in the corresponding cumulative number of anomalies. Full article

This study presents the spatio–temporal evolution of the electric and magnetic fields recorded by the China Seismo–Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) and the thermal infrared remote sensing data observed by the Chinese stationary meteorological satellites Feng Yun–2G (FY–2G) associated with the 2021 Mw7.3 Maduo earthquake. Specifically, we analyzed the power spectrum density (PSD) data of the electric field in the extremely low frequency (ELF) band, the geomagnetic east–west vector data, and the temperature of brightness blackbody (TBB) data to investigate the spatio–temporal evolution characteristics under quiet space weather conditions (Dst > −30 nT and Kp < 3). Results showed that (1) the TBB radiation began to increase notably along the northern fault of the epicenter ~1.5 months prior to the occurrence of the earthquake. It achieved its maximum intensity on 17 May, and the earthquake occurred as the anomalies decreased. (2) The PSD in the 371 Hz–500 Hz and 700 Hz–871 Hz bands exhibited anomaly perturbations near the epicenter and its magnetic conjugate area on May 17, with particularly notable perturbations observed in the latter. The anomaly perturbations began to occur ~1 month before the earthquake, and the earthquake occurred as the anomalies decreased. (3) Both the magnetic –east–west component vector data and the ion velocity Vx data exhibited anomaly perturbations near the epicenter and the magnetic conjugate area on 11 May and 16 May. (4) The anomaly perturbations in the thermal infrared TBB data, CSES electric field, and magnetic field data all occurred within a consistent perturbation time period and spatial proximity. We also conducted an investigation into the timing, location, and potential causes of the anomaly perturbations using the Vx ion velocity data with magnetic field –east–west component vector data, as well as the horizontal –north–south and vertical component PSD data of the electric field with the magnetic field –east–west component vector data. There may be both chemical and electromagnetic wave propagation models for the “lithosphere—atmosphere—ionosphere” coupling (LAIC) mechanism of the Maduo earthquake. Full article