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Keywords = Jeans equation

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25 pages, 3746 KiB  
Article
Empirical Modelling of Ice-Jam Flood Hazards Along the Mackenzie River in a Changing Climate
by Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Sergio Gomez, Jad Saade, Brian Perry and Apurba Das
Water 2025, 17(15), 2288; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152288 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 188
Abstract
This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations [...] Read more.
This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article
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10 pages, 325 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Self-Gravitating Fluid Instabilities from the Post-Newtonian Boltzmann Equation
by Gilberto M. Kremer
Entropy 2024, 26(3), 246; https://doi.org/10.3390/e26030246 - 10 Mar 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1383
Abstract
Self-gravitating fluid instabilities are analysed within the framework of a post-Newtonian Boltzmann equation coupled with the Poisson equations for the gravitational potentials of the post-Newtonian theory. The Poisson equations are determined from the knowledge of the energy–momentum tensor calculated from a post-Newtonian Maxwell–Jüttner [...] Read more.
Self-gravitating fluid instabilities are analysed within the framework of a post-Newtonian Boltzmann equation coupled with the Poisson equations for the gravitational potentials of the post-Newtonian theory. The Poisson equations are determined from the knowledge of the energy–momentum tensor calculated from a post-Newtonian Maxwell–Jüttner distribution function. The one-particle distribution function and the gravitational potentials are perturbed from their background states, and the perturbations are represented by plane waves characterised by a wave number vector and time-dependent small amplitudes. The time-dependent amplitude of the one-particle distribution function is supposed to be a linear combination of the summational invariants of the post-Newtonian kinetic theory. From the coupled system of differential equations for the time-dependent amplitudes of the one-particle distribution function and gravitational potentials, an evolution equation for the mass density contrast is obtained. It is shown that for perturbation wavelengths smaller than the Jeans wavelength, the mass density contrast propagates as harmonic waves in time. For perturbation wavelengths greater than the Jeans wavelength, the mass density contrast grows in time, and the instability growth in the post-Newtonian theory is more accentuated than the one of the Newtonian theory. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Mechanics of Self-Gravitating Systems)
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18 pages, 1225 KiB  
Article
Symmetries of the Large Scale Structures of the Universe as a Phenomenology of a Fractal Turbulence: The Role of the Plasma Component
by Giovanni Montani and Nakia Carlevaro
Symmetry 2024, 16(3), 306; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16030306 - 5 Mar 2024
Viewed by 1539
Abstract
We present a new perspective on the symmetries that govern the formation of large-scale structures across the Universe, particularly focusing on the transition from the seeds of galaxy clusters to the seeds of galaxies themselves. We address two main features of cosmological fluid [...] Read more.
We present a new perspective on the symmetries that govern the formation of large-scale structures across the Universe, particularly focusing on the transition from the seeds of galaxy clusters to the seeds of galaxies themselves. We address two main features of cosmological fluid dynamics pertaining to both the linear and non-linear regimes. The linear dynamics of cosmological perturbations within the Hubble horizon is characterized by the Jeans length, which separates stable configurations from unstable fluctuations due to the gravitational effect on sufficiently large (and therefore, massive enough) overdensities. On the other hand, the non-linear dynamics of the cosmological fluid is associated with a turbulent behavior once the Reynolds numbers reach a sufficiently high level. This turbulent regime leads to energy dissipation across smaller and smaller scales, resulting in a fractal distribution of eddies throughout physical space. The proposed scenario suggests that the spatial scale of eddy formation is associated with the Jeans length of various levels of fragmentation from an original large-scale structure. By focusing on the fragmentation of galaxy cluster seeds versus galaxy seeds, we arrived at a phenomenological law that links the ratio of the two structure densities to the number of galaxies in each cluster and to the Hausdorff number of the Universe matter distribution. Finally, we introduced a primordial magnetic field and studied its influence on the Jeans length dynamics. The resulting anisotropic behavior of the density contrast led us to infer that the main features of the turbulence could be reduced to a 2D Euler equation. Numerical simulations showed that the two lowest wavenumbers contained the major energy contribution of the spectrum. Full article
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36 pages, 1351 KiB  
Article
Cutting-Edge Monte Carlo Framework: Novel “Walk on Equations” Algorithm for Linear Algebraic Systems
by Venelin Todorov and Ivan Dimov
Axioms 2024, 13(1), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms13010053 - 15 Jan 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2211
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce the “Walk on Equations” (WE) Monte Carlo algorithm, a novel approach for solving linear algebraic systems. This algorithm shares similarities with the recently developed WE MC method by Ivan Dimov, Sylvain Maire, and Jean Michel Sellier. This method [...] Read more.
In this paper, we introduce the “Walk on Equations” (WE) Monte Carlo algorithm, a novel approach for solving linear algebraic systems. This algorithm shares similarities with the recently developed WE MC method by Ivan Dimov, Sylvain Maire, and Jean Michel Sellier. This method is particularly effective for large matrices, both real- and complex-valued, and shows significant improvements over traditional methods. Our comprehensive comparison with the Gauss–Seidel method highlights the WE algorithm’s superior performance, especially in reducing relative errors within fewer iterations. We also introduce a unique dominancy number, which plays a crucial role in the algorithm’s efficiency. A pivotal outcome of our research is the convergence theorem we established for the WE algorithm, demonstrating its optimized performance through a balanced iteration matrix. Furthermore, we incorporated a sequential Monte Carlo method, enhancing the algorithm’s efficacy. The most-notable application of our algorithm is in solving a large system derived from a finite-element approximation in constructive mechanics, specifically for a beam structure problem. Our findings reveal that the proposed WE Monte Carlo algorithm, especially when combined with sequential MC, converges significantly faster than well-known deterministic iterative methods such as the Jacobi method. This enhanced convergence is more pronounced in larger matrices. Additionally, our comparative analysis with the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method shows that the WE MC method can outperform traditional methods for certain matrices. The introduction of a new random variable as an unbiased estimator of the solution vector and the analysis of the relative stochastic error structure further illustrate the potential of our novel algorithm in computational mathematics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Numerical Algorithms for Machine Learning)
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16 pages, 592 KiB  
Article
Stability Analysis of a Self-Gravitating Fluid within EIT Theory
by J. Félix Salazar, A. L. García-Perciante, A. R. Méndez and G. Chacón-Acosta
Universe 2023, 9(7), 339; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe9070339 - 19 Jul 2023
Viewed by 1129
Abstract
In this article, we apply the formalism of (classical) Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (EIT) to the dynamics of density fluctuations for a self-gravitating fluid in a static Universe, considering only bulk viscosity. The problem is characterized by gravitational instability, for which the Jeans criterion [...] Read more.
In this article, we apply the formalism of (classical) Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (EIT) to the dynamics of density fluctuations for a self-gravitating fluid in a static Universe, considering only bulk viscosity. The problem is characterized by gravitational instability, for which the Jeans criterion is shown to hold. However, both the relaxation time in the constitutive equation and the viscosity itself affect the behavior of both stable and unstable modes. In particular, the stable scenario features three modes, two of them corresponding to damped oscillations which decay faster that in the CIT scene. The third mode, inexistent in the CIT, corresponds to a very quickly decaying mode. In the unstable case, growing modes are observed in both EIT and CIT theories, for which the slowest growth is the one predicted by the CIT theory followed by the EIT, while the non-dissipative case corresponds to the fastest one. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Cosmology)
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12 pages, 549 KiB  
Article
Halo Orbits under Some Perturbations in cr3bp
by Abdulrahman B. Albidah and Abdullah
Symmetry 2023, 15(2), 481; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym15020481 - 11 Feb 2023
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2063
Abstract
The general idea of this paper is to study the effect of mass variation of a test particle on periodic orbits in the restricted three-body model. In the circular restricted three-body problem (cr3bp), two bigger bodies (known as primary and secondary or sometime [...] Read more.
The general idea of this paper is to study the effect of mass variation of a test particle on periodic orbits in the restricted three-body model. In the circular restricted three-body problem (cr3bp), two bigger bodies (known as primary and secondary or sometime only primaries) are placed at either side of the origin on abscissa while moving in circular orbits around their common center of mass (here origin), while the third body (known as smallest body or infinitesimal body or test particle) is moving in space and varies its mass according to Jeans law. Using the Lindstedt–Poincaré method, we determine equations of motion and their solutions under various perturbations. The time-series and halo orbits around one of the collinear critical points of this model are drawn under the effects of the solar radiation pressure of the primary and the oblateness of the secondary. In general, these two dynamical properties are symmetrical. Full article
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36 pages, 3506 KiB  
Article
Symplectic Foliation Structures of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics as Dissipation Model: Application to Metriplectic Nonlinear Lindblad Quantum Master Equation
by Frédéric Barbaresco
Entropy 2022, 24(11), 1626; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24111626 - 9 Nov 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3255
Abstract
The idea of a canonical ensemble from Gibbs has been extended by Jean-Marie Souriau for a symplectic manifold where a Lie group has a Hamiltonian action. A novel symplectic thermodynamics and information geometry known as “Lie group thermodynamics” then explains foliation structures of [...] Read more.
The idea of a canonical ensemble from Gibbs has been extended by Jean-Marie Souriau for a symplectic manifold where a Lie group has a Hamiltonian action. A novel symplectic thermodynamics and information geometry known as “Lie group thermodynamics” then explains foliation structures of thermodynamics. We then infer a geometric structure for heat equation from this archetypal model, and we have discovered a pure geometric structure of entropy, which characterizes entropy in coadjoint representation as an invariant Casimir function. The coadjoint orbits form the level sets on the entropy. By using the KKS 2-form in the affine case via Souriau’s cocycle, the method also enables the Fisher metric from information geometry for Lie groups. The fact that transverse dynamics to these symplectic leaves is dissipative, whilst dynamics along these symplectic leaves characterize non-dissipative phenomenon, can be used to interpret this Lie group thermodynamics within the context of an open system out of thermodynamics equilibrium. In the following section, we will discuss the dissipative symplectic model of heat and information through the Poisson transverse structure to the symplectic leaf of coadjoint orbits, which is based on the metriplectic bracket, which guarantees conservation of energy and non-decrease of entropy. Baptiste Coquinot recently developed a new foundation theory for dissipative brackets by taking a broad perspective from non-equilibrium thermodynamics. He did this by first considering more natural variables for building the bracket used in metriplectic flow and then by presenting a methodical approach to the development of the theory. By deriving a generic dissipative bracket from fundamental thermodynamic first principles, Baptiste Coquinot demonstrates that brackets for the dissipative part are entirely natural, just as Poisson brackets for the non-dissipative part are canonical for Hamiltonian dynamics. We shall investigate how the theory of dissipative brackets introduced by Paul Dirac for limited Hamiltonian systems relates to transverse structure. We shall investigate an alternative method to the metriplectic method based on Michel Saint Germain’s PhD research on the transverse Poisson structure. We will examine an alternative method to the metriplectic method based on the transverse Poisson structure, which Michel Saint-Germain studied for his PhD and was motivated by the key works of Fokko du Cloux. In continuation of Saint-Germain’s works, Hervé Sabourin highlights the, for transverse Poisson structures, polynomial nature to nilpotent adjoint orbits and demonstrated that the Casimir functions of the transverse Poisson structure that result from restriction to the Lie–Poisson structure transverse slice are Casimir functions independent of the transverse Poisson structure. He also demonstrated that, on the transverse slice, two polynomial Poisson structures to the symplectic leaf appear that have Casimir functions. The dissipative equation introduced by Lindblad, from the Hamiltonian Liouville equation operating on the quantum density matrix, will be applied to illustrate these previous models. For the Lindblad operator, the dissipative component has been described as the relative entropy gradient and the maximum entropy principle by Öttinger. It has been observed then that the Lindblad equation is a linear approximation of the metriplectic equation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geometric Structure of Thermodynamics: Theory and Applications)
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18 pages, 1322 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Dark Matter Models Using Dark Matter Correlations across Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies
by Ahmad Borzou
Universe 2022, 8(7), 386; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe8070386 - 21 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1916
Abstract
The predicted size of dark matter substructures in kilo-parsec scales is model-dependent. Therefore, if the correlations between dark matter mass densities as a function of the distances between them are measured via observations, we can scrutinize dark matter scenarios. In this paper, we [...] Read more.
The predicted size of dark matter substructures in kilo-parsec scales is model-dependent. Therefore, if the correlations between dark matter mass densities as a function of the distances between them are measured via observations, we can scrutinize dark matter scenarios. In this paper, we present an assessment procedure of dark matter scenarios. First, we use Gaia’s data to infer the single-body phase-space density of the stars in the Fornax dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The latter, together with the Jeans equation, after eliminating the gravitational potential using the Poisson equation, reveals the mass density of dark matter as a function of its position in the galaxy. We derive the correlations between dark matter mass densities as a function of distances between them. No statistically significant correlation is observed. Second, for the sake of comparison with the standard cold dark matter, we also compute the correlations between dark matter mass densities in a small halo of the Eagle hydrodynamics simulation. We show that the correlations from the simulation and from Gaia are in agreement. Third, we show that Gaia observations can be used to limit the parameter space of the Ginzburg–Landau statistical field theory of dark matter mass densities and subsequently shrink the parameter space of any dark matter model. As two examples, we show how to leave limitations on (i) a classic gas dark matter and (ii) a superfluid dark matter. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Focus on Dark Matter)
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10 pages, 342 KiB  
Article
Post-Newtonian Jeans Equation for Stationary and Spherically Symmetrical Self-Gravitating Systems
by Gilberto Medeiros Kremer
Universe 2022, 8(3), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe8030179 - 13 Mar 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2244
Abstract
The post-Newtonian Jeans equation for stationary self-gravitating systems is derived from the post-Newtonian Boltzmann equation in spherical coordinates. The Jeans equation is coupled with the three Poisson equations from the post-Newtonian theory. The Poisson equations are functions of the energy-momentum tensor components which [...] Read more.
The post-Newtonian Jeans equation for stationary self-gravitating systems is derived from the post-Newtonian Boltzmann equation in spherical coordinates. The Jeans equation is coupled with the three Poisson equations from the post-Newtonian theory. The Poisson equations are functions of the energy-momentum tensor components which are determined from the post-Newtonian Maxwell–Jüttner distribution function. As an application, the effect of a central massive black hole on the velocity dispersion profile of the host galaxy is investigated and the influence of the post-Newtonian corrections are determined. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Kinetic Processes in Relativistic Domain)
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15 pages, 3076 KiB  
Article
Periodic Orbits of the Restricted Three-Body Problem Based on the Mass Distribution of Saturn’s Regular Moons
by Huan Cheng and Fabao Gao
Universe 2022, 8(2), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe8020063 - 20 Jan 2022
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2710
Abstract
This paper uses the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to perform a fitting analysis on the mass data of Saturn’s regular moons and found that the lognormal distribution is its best-fitting distribution with an extremely high p-value of 0.9889. Moreover, novel dynamic equations for the [...] Read more.
This paper uses the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to perform a fitting analysis on the mass data of Saturn’s regular moons and found that the lognormal distribution is its best-fitting distribution with an extremely high p-value of 0.9889. Moreover, novel dynamic equations for the variable-mass restricted three-body problem are established based on the newly discovered distribution of mass data, rather than the empirical Jeans’ law, and the Lindstedt–Poincaré perturbation method was used to give the approximate analytical periodic orbits near the Lagrangian point L3. Furthermore, this paper also discusses the influence of the three-body gravitational interaction parameter, the variable-mass parameter of the third body, and the scale parameter in the statistical results on the periodic orbits and the position of the Lagrangian point L3 through numerical simulation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Planetary Sciences)
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6 pages, 226 KiB  
Article
Symmetry of Syzygies of a System of Functional Equations Defining a Ring Homomorphism
by Roman Ger
Symmetry 2021, 13(12), 2343; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13122343 - 6 Dec 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2095
Abstract
I deal with an alienation problem for the system of two fundamental Cauchy functional equations with an unknown function f mapping a ring X into an integral domain Y and preserving binary operations of addition and multiplication, respectively. The resulting syzygies obtained by [...] Read more.
I deal with an alienation problem for the system of two fundamental Cauchy functional equations with an unknown function f mapping a ring X into an integral domain Y and preserving binary operations of addition and multiplication, respectively. The resulting syzygies obtained by adding (resp. multiplying) these two equations side by side are discussed. The first of these two syzygies was first examined by Jean Dhombres in 1988 who proved that under some additional conditions concering the domain and range rings it forces f to be a ring homomorphism (alienation phenomenon). The novelty of the present paper is to look for sufficient conditions upon f solving the other syzygy to be alien. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Functional Equations and Inequalities 2021)
12 pages, 588 KiB  
Article
Schrödinger–Newton Model with a Background
by José Tito Mendonça
Symmetry 2021, 13(6), 1007; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym13061007 - 4 Jun 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2683
Abstract
This paper considers the Schrödinger–Newton (SN) equation with a Yukawa potential, introducing the effect of locality. We also include the interaction of the self-gravitating quantum matter with a radiation background, describing the effects due to the environment. Matter and radiation are coupled by [...] Read more.
This paper considers the Schrödinger–Newton (SN) equation with a Yukawa potential, introducing the effect of locality. We also include the interaction of the self-gravitating quantum matter with a radiation background, describing the effects due to the environment. Matter and radiation are coupled by photon scattering processes and radiation pressure. We apply this extended SN model to the study of Jeans instability and gravitational collapse. We show that the instability thresholds and growth rates are modified by the presence of an environment. The Yukawa scale length is more relevant for large-scale density perturbations, while the quantum effects become more relevant at small scales. Furthermore, coupling with the radiation environment modifies the character of the instability and leads to the appearance of two distinct instability regimes: one, where both matter and radiation collapse together, and others where regions of larger radiation intensity coincide with regions of lower matter density. This could explain the formation of radiation bubbles and voids of matter. The present work extends the SN model in new directions and could be relevant to astrophysical and cosmological phenomena, as well as to laboratory experiments simulating quantum gravity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Quantum Gravity)
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54 pages, 1937 KiB  
Article
Jeans Instability of Dissipative Self-Gravitating Bose–Einstein Condensates with Repulsive or Attractive Self-Interaction: Application to Dark Matter
by Pierre-Henri Chavanis
Universe 2020, 6(12), 226; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe6120226 - 27 Nov 2020
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 3092
Abstract
We study the Jeans instability of an infinite homogeneous dissipative self-gravitating Bose–Einstein condensate described by generalized Gross–Pitaevskii–Poisson equations [Chavanis, P.H. Eur. Phys. J. Plus2017, 132, 248]. This problem has applications in relation to the formation of dark matter halos in [...] Read more.
We study the Jeans instability of an infinite homogeneous dissipative self-gravitating Bose–Einstein condensate described by generalized Gross–Pitaevskii–Poisson equations [Chavanis, P.H. Eur. Phys. J. Plus2017, 132, 248]. This problem has applications in relation to the formation of dark matter halos in cosmology. We consider the case of a static and an expanding universe. We take into account an arbitrary form of repulsive or attractive self-interaction between the bosons (an attractive self-interaction being particularly relevant for the axion). We consider both gravitational and hydrodynamical (tachyonic) instabilities and determine the maximum growth rate of the instability and the corresponding wave number. We study how they depend on the scattering length of the bosons (or more generally on the squared speed of sound) and on the friction coefficient. Previously obtained results (notably in the dissipationless case) are recovered in particular limits of our study. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Dark Matter as a Bose-Einstein Condensate)
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15 pages, 722 KiB  
Article
Towards Stochasticity through Joint Invariant Functions of Two Isomorphic Lie Algebras of SL(2R) Type
by Maricel Agop and Mitică Craus
Symmetry 2020, 12(2), 226; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym12020226 - 3 Feb 2020
Viewed by 1850
Abstract
In the motion fractal theory, the scale relativity dynamics of any complex system are described through various Schrödinger or hydrodynamic type fractal “regimes”. In the one dimensional stationary case of Schrödinger type fractal “regimes”, synchronizations of complex system entities implies a joint invariant [...] Read more.
In the motion fractal theory, the scale relativity dynamics of any complex system are described through various Schrödinger or hydrodynamic type fractal “regimes”. In the one dimensional stationary case of Schrödinger type fractal “regimes”, synchronizations of complex system entities implies a joint invariant function with the simultaneous action of two isomorphic groups of the S L ( 2 R ) type as solutions of Stoka type equations. Among these joint invariant functions, Gaussians become in the Jeans’s sense, probability density (i.e., stochasticity) whenever the information on the complex system analyzed is fragmentary. In the two-dimensional case of hydrodynamic type fractal “regimes” at a non-differentiable scale, the soliton and soliton-kink of fractal type of the velocity field generate the minimal vortex of fractal type that becomes the source of all turbulences in the complex systems dynamics. Some correlations of our model to experimental data were also achieved. Full article
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19 pages, 5593 KiB  
Article
Uncertainty Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Hydraulic Model
by Khalid Oubennaceur, Karem Chokmani, Miroslav Nastev, Marion Tanguy and Sebastien Raymond
Water 2018, 10(3), 272; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030272 - 4 Mar 2018
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 6373 | Correction
Abstract
A reliability approach referred to as the point estimate method (PEM) is presented to assess the uncertainty of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. PEM is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, which evaluates the statistical moments of a performance function [...] Read more.
A reliability approach referred to as the point estimate method (PEM) is presented to assess the uncertainty of a two-dimensional hydraulic model. PEM is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, which evaluates the statistical moments of a performance function involving random variables. When applied to hydraulic problems, the variables are the inputs to the hydraulic model, and the first and second statistical moments refer to the mean and standard deviation of the model’s output. In providing approximate estimates of the uncertainty, PEM appears considerably simpler and requires less information and fewer runs than standard Monte Carlo methods. An example of uncertainty assessment is shown for simulated water depths in a 46 km reach of the Richelieu River, Canada. The 2D hydraulic model, H2D2, was used to solve the shallow water equations. Standard deviations around the mean water depths were estimated by considering the uncertainties of three main input variables: flow rate, Manning’s coefficient and topography. Results indicate that the mean standard deviation is <27 cm for the considered flow rates of 759, 824, 936, 1113 m 3 / s . Higher standard deviations were obtained upstream of the topographic shoal at the municipality of Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu. The PEM method adds further value to the H2D2 model predictions as it indicates the magnitude and the spatial variation in uncertainties. The effort required to complete an uncertainty analysis using the PEM method is minimal and the resulting insight is meaningful. This knowledge should be incorporated into decision-making in the context of flood risk assessment. Full article
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