Search Results (12)

Land use change is a critical factor influencing regional carbon emissions, and understanding its spatiotemporal variability is essential for supporting science-based emission-reduction strategies. In this study, we constructed an improved measurement framework by integrating high-resolution land use data, gridded anthropogenic carbon emission data, multi-source remote sensing indicators, and socioeconomic variables to quantify land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) in the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA) from 2000 to 2022. We analyzed the temporal trends and spatial clustering of carbon emissions using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and global/local Moran’s I statistics, and further explored the driving mechanisms through the Geodetector (GD) model, including both single-factor explanatory power and two-factor interaction effects. The results show that total LUCEs in the CCEC increased continuously during the study period, with significant spatial clustering characterized by high–high emission hotspots in the core areas of Chengdu and Chongqing and low–low clusters in western mountainous regions. Socioeconomic factors played a dominant role in shaping emission patterns, with construction land proportion, nighttime light intensity, and population density identified as the strongest drivers. Interaction detection revealed nonlinear enhancement effects among key socioeconomic variables, indicating an increasing spatial lock-in of human activities on carbon emissions. These findings provide scientific evidence for optimizing land use structure and formulating region-specific low-carbon development policies in rapidly urbanizing megaregions. Full article

The Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), as a key component of the ecological security barrier on the Tibetan Plateau, is crucial for regional sustainable development due to the stability of its alpine agro-pastoral ecosystems. This study aims to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and underlying driving mechanisms of eco-environmental quality (EEQ) in the QLB from 2001 to 2022. Based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) and long-term MODIS data, we constructed a Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) model to evaluate the EEQ dynamics. Geodetector (GD) was applied to quantitatively identify key driving factors and their interactions. The findings reveal: (1) The mean RSEI value increased from 0.46 in 2001 to 0.51 in 2022, showing a fluctuating improvement trend with significant transitions toward higher ecological quality grades; (2) spatially, a distinct “high-north-south, low-center” pattern emerged, with excellent-grade areas (4.77%) concentrated in alpine meadows and poor-grade areas (5.10%) mainly in bare rock regions; (3) 47.81% of the region experienced ecological improvement, whereas 16.34% showed degradation, predominantly above 3827 m elevation; and (4) GD analysis indicated natural factors dominated EEQ differentiation, with temperature (q = 0.340) and elevation (q = 0.332) being primary drivers. The interaction between temperature and precipitation (q = 0.593) exerted decisive control on ecological pattern evolution. This study provides an efficient monitoring framework and a spatially explicit governance paradigm for maintaining differentiated management and ecosystem stability in alpine agro-pastoral regions. Full article

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing higher warming rates than elsewhere, which may affect regional vegetation growth. Particularly on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), where the topography is diverse and rich in biodiversity, it is necessary to clarify the drivers of climate and topography on vegetation cover. In this research, we selected the Shaluli Mountains (SLLM) in the ETP as the study area, monitored the spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional vegetation cover using remote sensing methods, and quantified the drivers of vegetation change using Geodetector (GD). The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation (PRE) (−2.4054 mm/year) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (−0.1813/year) in the SLLM. Annual maximum temperature (TMX) on the spatial and temporal scales showed an overall increasing trend, and the regional climate tended to become warmer and drier. Since 2000, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average value of 0.6710, and FVC has spatially shown a pattern of “low in the middle and high in the surroundings”. The areas with non-significant increases (p > 0.05) and significant increases (p < 0.05) in FVC accounted for 46.03% and 5.76% of the SLLM. Altitude (q = 0.3517) and TMX (q = 0.3158) were the main drivers of FVC changes. As altitude and TMX increased, FVC showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. The results of this study help us to clarify the influence of climate and topography on the vegetation ecosystem of the ETP and provide a scientific basis for regional biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Full article

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a critical ecological zone in China now confronting growing tensions between land conservation and development. This study combines land use, climate, and socio-economic data with spatial–statistical models (GeoDetector [GD]–Patch-generating Land Use Simulation [PLUS]–Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs [InVEST]) to analyze land use changes (2000–2020), evaluate habitat quality, and simulate scenarios to 2040. Key results include the following: (1) Farmland was decreased by the conversion to forests (+3475 km²) and grasslands (+4522 km²), while construction land expanded rapidly (+11,166 km²); (2) the population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) pressures drove the farmland loss (q = 0.148 for population, q = 0.129 for GDP), while synergies between evapotranspiration (ET) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) promoted forest/grassland recovery (q = 0.155); and (3) ecological protection scenarios increased the grassland area by 12.94% but restricted the construction land growth (−13.84%), with persistent unused land (>3.61% in Inner Mongolia) indicating arid-zone risks. The Habitat Quality-Autocorrelated Coupling Index (HQACI) declined from 0.373 (2020) to 0.345–0.349 (2040), which was linked to drought, groundwater loss, and urban expansion. Proposed strategies including riparian corridor protection, adaptive urban zoning, and gradient-based restoration aim to balance ecological and developmental needs, supporting spatial planning and enhancing the basin-wide habitat quality. Full article

The China Baijiu Golden Triangle (BGT) serves as the core production hub of China’s Baijiu industry, where the ecological environment plays a pivotal role in ensuring the industry’s sustainable development. However, urbanization, industrial expansion, and climate change pose potential threats to the region’s vegetation dynamics. Utilizing Landsat remote sensing data from 2002 to 2022, this study integrates Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, coefficient of variation (CV) analysis, and the Geodetector model (GD model) to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its underlying driving mechanisms within the BGT. The findings reveal an overall upward trend in vegetation NDVI, with the annual mean NDVI increasing from 0.45 to 0.67, corresponding to a growth rate of 0.49%. Spatially, areas of high vegetation cover are predominantly located in mountainous forest zones with favorable ecological conditions, whereas regions of low vegetation cover are concentrated in zones of urban expansion. Precipitation and topographic factors (elevation and slope) emerge as the primary natural drivers of vegetation change, while land use change and the night-time light index stand out as the most influential human-induced factors. Further analysis uncovers a nonlinear interactive enhancement effect between natural and anthropogenic factors, with the interaction between the night-time light index and precipitation being particularly pronounced. This suggests that urbanization not only directly impacts vegetation but may also exert indirect effects on the ecosystem by altering regional hydrological and climatic processes. The results indicate that ecological protection policies in the BGT have yielded some success; however, vegetation fragmentation and ecological pressures stemming from urban expansion remain significant challenges. Moving forward, optimizing land use policies and promoting eco-friendly development models will be essential to achieving ecosystem stability and sustaining industrial growth. Full article

The southwest region of China is characterized by numerous rugged mountains and valleys, which create favorable conditions for landslide disasters. The landslide-influencing factors show different sensitivities regionally, which induces the occurrence of disasters to different degrees, especially in small sample areas. This study constructs a framework for the identification, analysis, and evaluation of landslide hazards in complex mountainous regions within small sample areas. This study utilizes small baseline subset interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SBAS-InSAR) technology and high-resolution optical imagery for a comprehensive interpretation to identify landslide hazards. A geodetector is employed to analyze disaster-inducing factors, and machine-learning models such as random forest (RF), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), categorical boosting (CatBoost), logistic regression (LR), and stacking ensemble strategies (Stacking) are applied for landslide sensitivity evaluation. GMLCM stands for geodetector–machine-learning-coupled modeling. The results indicate the following: (1) 172 landslide hazards were identified, primarily concentrated along the banks of the Lancang River. (2) A geodetector analysis shows that the key disaster-inducing factors for landslides include a digital elevation model (DEM) (1321–1857 m), rainfall (1181–1290 mm/a), the distance from roads (0–1285 m), and geological rock formation (soft rock formation). (3) Based on the application of the K-means clustering algorithm and the Bayesian optimization algorithm, the GD-CatBoost model shows excellent performance. High-sensitivity zones were predominantly concentrated along the Lancang River, accounting for 24.2% in the study area. The method for identifying landslide hazards and small-sample sensitivity evaluation can provide guidance and insights for landslide monitoring and harnessing in similar geological environments. Full article

Avalanche susceptibility assessment is a core aspect of regional avalanche early warning and risk analysis and is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation on proposed highways. Using sky–ground integration investigation, 83 avalanche points within the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor were identified, and the avalanche hazard susceptibility of the transportation corridor was partitioned using the certainty factor (CF) model and the coupled coefficient of the certainty factor–Geodetector (CF-GD) model. The CF model analysis presented nine elements of natural conditions which influence avalanche development; then, by applying the Geodetector for each of the factors, a weighting coefficient was given depending on its importance for avalanche occurrence. The results demonstrate the following: (1) According to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve used to verify the accuracy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for the CF-GD coupled model is 0.889, which is better than the value of 0.836 of the CF model’s evaluation accuracy, and the coupled model improves the accuracy by about 6.34% compared with the single model, indicating that the coupled model is more accurate. The results provide avalanche prevention and control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor. (2) The slope orientation, slope gradient, and mean winter temperature gradient are the main factors for avalanche development in the study area. (3) The results were validated based on the AUC values. The AUCs of the CF-GD coupled model and the CF model were 0.889 and 0.836, respectively. The accuracy of the coupled model was improved by about 6.34% compared to the single model, and the coupled CF-GD model was more accurate. The results provide avalanche control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor. Full article

An in-depth study of the influence mechanism of oasis land surface temperature (LST) in arid regions is essential to promote the stable development of the ecological environment in dry areas. Based on MODIS, MYD11A2 long time series data from 2003 to 2020, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test, the Sen slope, combined with the Hurst index, were used to analyze and predict the trend of LST changes in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. This paper selected nine influencing factors of the slope, aspect, air temperature, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation (P), nighttime light index (NTL), patch density (PD), mean patch area (AREA_MN), and aggregation index (AI) to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of LST from global and local perspectives using the geodetector (GD) model and multi-scale geo-weighted regression (MGWR) model. The results showed that the average LSTs of the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 31.53 °C, 47.29 °C, 22.38 °C, and −5.20 °C in the four seasons from 2003 to 2020, respectively. Except for autumn, the LST of all seasons showed an increasing trend, bare soil and grass land had a warming effect, and agricultural land had a cooling effect. The results of factor detection showed that air temperature, P, and NDVI were the dominant factors affecting the spatial variation of LST. The interaction detection results showed that the interaction between air temperature and NDVI was the most significant, and the two-factor interaction was more effective than the single-factor effect on LST. The MGWR model results showed that the effects of PD on LST were positively correlated, and the impact of AREA_MN and AI on LST were negatively correlated, indicating that the dense landscape of patches has a cooling effect on LST. Overall, this study provides information for managers to carry out more targeted ecological stability regulations in arid zone oases and facilitates the development of regulatory measures to maintain the cold island effect and improve the environment. Full article

Landslide susceptibility assessment is an effective non-engineering landslide prevention at the regional scale. This study aims to improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment by using an optimized statistical index (SI) method. A landslide inventory containing 493 historical landslides was established, and 20 initial influencing factors were selected for modeling. First, a combination of GeoDetector and recursive feature elimination was used to eliminate the redundant factors. Then, an optimization method for weights of SI was adopted based on Gaussian process regression (GPR). Finally, the predictive abilities of the original SI model, the SI model with optimized factors (GD-SI), and the SI model with optimized factors and weights (GD-GPR-SI) were compared and evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) on the testing datasets. The GD-GPR-SI model has the highest AUC value (0.943), and the GD-SI model (0.936) also has a higher value than the SI model (0.931). The results highlight the necessity of factor screening and weight optimization. The factor screening method used in this study can effectively eliminate factors that negatively affect the SI model. Furthermore, by optimizing the SI weights through GPR, more reasonable weights can be obtained for model performance improvement. Full article

Cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) is a key obstacle to agricultural development and has a strong relationship with regional food security and global sustainable development. However, few studies have analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of CLF and the complex interactions among their influencing factors in rapidly developing regions. In this study, first, the GlobeLand30 datasets were used to obtain characteristic parameters of cultivated land in counties in Guangdong Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020. Then, the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model based on the principal component analysis (PCA) was used to measure the extent of CLF. Finally, the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) was used to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of CLF, and geodetector (GD) and random forest (RF) models were used to explore the factors influencing the spatial difference in CLF. The results showed that the spatial differences in the distribution of cultivated land resources in Guangdong Province are relatively large and the extent of agglomeration is generally low. The extent of CLF on the county scale is mainly medium and higher. The overall spatial distribution shows an increasing trend from the south to the north and from the west to the east, and the spatial distribution pattern with agglomeration and randomness remains relatively stable. From 2000 to 2020, the overall CLF continued to intensify and the evolution of CLF on the county scale mainly increased. The spatial difference in CLF is the result of that based on the natural environment and influenced by factors such as social, economic, and agricultural development. The interaction between influencing factors is very strong, dominated by nonlinear enhancement. The results are of great significance for promoting the intensive and efficient utilization of cultivated land resources and sustainable regional development. Full article

Land surface temperature (LST) in urban agglomerations plays an important role for policymakers in urban planning. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is one of the regions with the highest urban densities in the world. This study aims to explore the spatial patterns and the dominant drivers of LST in the PRD. MODIS LST (MYD11A2) data from 2005 and 2015 were used in this study. First, spatial analysis methods were applied in order to determine the spatial patterns of LST and to identity the hotspot areas (HSAs). Second, the hotspot ratio index (HRI), as a metric of thermal heterogeneity, was developed in order to identify the features of thermal environment across the nine cities in the PRD. Finally, the geo-detector (GD) metric was employed to explore the dominant drivers of LST, which included elevation, land use/land cover (LUCC), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), impervious surface distribution density (ISDD), gross domestic product (GDP), population density (POP), and nighttime light index (NLI). The GD metric has the advantages of detecting the dominant drivers without assuming linear relationships and measuring the combined effects of the drivers. The results of Moran’s Index showed that the daytime and nighttime LST were close to the cluster pattern. Therefore, this process led to the identification of HSAs. The HSAs were concentrated in the central PRD and were distributed around the Pearl River estuary. The results of the HRI indicated that the spatial distribution of the HSAs was highly heterogeneous among the cities for both daytime and nighttime. The highest HRI values were recorded in the cities of Dongguan and Shenzhen during the daytime. The HRI values in the cities of Zhaoqing, Jiangmen, and Huizhou were relatively lower in both daytime and nighttime. The dominant drivers of LST varied from city to city. The influence of land cover and socio-economic factors on daytime LST was higher in the highly urbanized cities than in the cities with low urbanization rates. For the cities of Zhaoqing, Huizhou, and Jiangmen, elevation was the dominant driver of daytime LST during the study period, and for the other cities in the PRD, the main driver changed from land cover in 2005 to NLI in 2015. This study is expected to provide useful guidance for planning of the thermal environment in urban agglomerations. Full article

Increasingly stricter and wider official efforts have been made by multilevel Chinese governments for seeking the improvements of the environment and public health status. However, the contributions of these efforts to environmental changes and spatiotemporal variations in some environmental diseases have been seldom explored and evaluated. Gastric cancer mortality (GCM) data in two periods (I: 2004–2006 and II: 2012–2015) was collected for the analysis of its spatiotemporal variations on the grid scale across S County in Central China. Some environmental and socioeconomic factors, including river, farmlands, topographic condition, population density, and gross domestic products (GDP) were obtained for the exploration of their changes and their relationships with GCM’s spatiotemporal variations through a powerful tool (GeoDetector, GD). During 2004–2015, S County achieved environmental improvement and socioeconomic development, as well as a clear decline of the age-standardized mortality rate of gastric cancer from 35.66/10⁵ to 23.44/10⁵. Moreover, the GCM spatial patterns changed on the grid scale, which was spatially associated with the selected influencing factors. Due to the improvement of rivers’ water quality, the distance from rivers posed relatively larger but reversed impacts on the gridded GCM. In addition, higher population density and higher economic level (GDP) acted as important protective factors, whereas the percentage of farmlands tended to have adverse effects on the gridded GCM in period II. It can be concluded that the decline of GCM in S County was spatiotemporally associated with increasingly strengthened environmental managements and socioeconomic developments over the past decade. Additionally, we suggest that more attentions should be paid to the potential pollution caused by excessive pesticides and fertilizers on the farmlands in S County. This study provided a useful clue for local authorities adopting more targeted measures to improve environment and public health in the regions similar to S County. Full article