Search Results (157)

This study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive efficacy of the SARIMA statistical model and the Prophet machine learning model for forecasting monthly traffic accidents across the 24 provinces of Ecuador, addressing a critical research gap in model selection for geographically and socioeconomically heterogeneous regions. By integrating classical time series modeling with algorithmic decomposition techniques, the research sought to determine whether a universally superior model exists or if predictive performance is inherently context-dependent. Monthly accident data from January 2013 to June 2025 were analyzed using a rolling-window evaluation framework. Model accuracy was assessed through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics to ensure consistency and comparability across provinces. The results revealed a global tie, with 12 provinces favoring SARIMA and 12 favoring Prophet, indicating the absence of a single dominant model. However, regional patterns of superiority emerged: Prophet achieved exceptional precision in coastal and urban provinces with stationary and high-volume time series—such as Guayas, which recorded the lowest MAPE (4.91%)—while SARIMA outperformed Prophet in the Andean highlands, particularly in non-stationary, medium-to-high-volume provinces such as Tungurahua (MAPE 6.07%) and Pichincha (MAPE 13.38%). Computational instability in MAPE was noted for provinces with extremely low accident counts (e.g., Galápagos, Carchi), though RMSE values remained low, indicating a metric rather than model limitation. Overall, the findings invalidate the notion of a universally optimal model and underscore the necessity of adopting adaptive, region-specific modeling frameworks that account for local geographic, demographic, and structural factors in predictive road safety analytics. Full article

Vulnerabilities in local food systems revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic were especially evident in highly tourism-dependent islands. This underscores the crucial role of agriculture in ensuring socio-ecological resilience, food security, and livelihood options in these contexts. Yet despite renewed policy attention, sustaining local farming in remote island settings continues to face numerous challenges. Amid growing recognition of the ways in which collective imagination shapes (and constrains) sustainability transformations, this paper applies the conceptual lens of imaginaries to examine agricultural futures in the Galápagos Islands and to explore the question of why agriculture remains marginal, despite widespread acknowledgement that supporting sustainable farming is central to the archipelago’s long-term sustainability. Through reflexive thematic analysis of policy documents, grey literature, and semi-structured interviews, the paper shows how imaginative spaces of possibility around food futures in Galápagos are conditioned by the powerful entanglement of hegemonic conservationist imaginaries with touristic imaginaries of an uninhabited wilderness. Within this contested terrain, five overlapping and co-constituting imaginaries of agriculture are distinguished, oriented variously around conservation priorities, technocratic planning, entrepreneurial growth, traditional livelihoods, and agroecological transformation. The analysis highlights how these imaginaries mobilize contrasting logics of support and mechanisms of change and illustrates how they complicate simplistic binaries, for example, between pristine and human-managed ecosystems, or between technological and holistic approaches to farming. The paper underscores the importance of paying critical attention to imaginaries of agriculture in order to navigate pathways toward more sustainable and resilient food systems in ecologically fragile island contexts. Full article

Remote islands face persistent challenges in achieving secure, sustainable and affordable energy supply due to their geographic isolation, fragile ecosystems and dependence on imported fossil fuels. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES)—typically combining photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines and battery energy storage systems (BESS)—have emerged as the dominant off-grid solution, demonstrating their potential to reduce fossil fuel dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, empirical case studies from Zanzibar, Thailand, Malaysia, the Galápagos, the Azores and Greece confirm that current systems remain transitional, relying on oversized storage and fossil backup during low-resource periods. Comparative analysis highlights both technical advances and persistent limitations, including seasonal variability, socio-economic barriers and governance gaps. Future directions for PV—wind-based (non-dispatchable) island microgrids point toward long-term hydrogen storage, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven predictive energy management and sector coupling—alongside participatory planning frameworks that enhance social acceptance and community ownership. By synthesizing technical, economic and social perspectives, this study provides a roadmap for advancing resilient, autonomous and socially embedded hybrid off-grid systems for remote islands. Full article

Punta Carola beach, located on San Cristóbal Island in the Galápagos Archipelago, exemplifies how island environments of recent human settlement can rapidly acquire cultural significance. Drawing on a survey of 201 residents, this study examines perceptions of the ecosystem services provided by Punta Carola, their relationship to subjective wellbeing, and attitudes toward alternative tourism and governance strategies. The findings reveal that the inhabitants of San Cristóbal recognize a wide range of tangible and intangible benefits that the natural environment of Punta Carola contributes to their quality of life, sense of belonging, and cultural identity, as well as recreational and aesthetic values. Life satisfaction was positively associated with perceptions of nature’s contribution, the maintenance of local ecological knowledge, and household income, while formal education correlated negatively. Residents identified freshwater and artisanal fishing as the most critical ecosystem services, reflecting their centrality to local livelihoods and wellbeing. The results also underscore widespread criticism of large-scale tourism projects perceived as exclusionary or unsustainable and highlight the importance of participatory governance schemes that legitimize local values. Punta Carola thus emerges as a “cultural landscape of resistance”, where external pressures catalyze identity construction and territorial rootedness. This case contributes to academic debates on socio-ecological resilience in fragile island contexts and offers actionable insights for inclusive planning in the Galápagos. Full article

This study examines the challenges and opportunities of managing electronic waste (e-waste) in the Galapagos Islands, a globally significant yet vulnerable subnational insular jurisdiction (SNIJ). Drawing on theories of Circular Economy (CE) and Political Industrial Ecology (PIE), the research investigates the status of e-waste in the archipelago, the barriers to implementing CE practices, and the institutional dynamics shaping material flows. Using a mixed-methods approach—including archival analysis, participant observation, and semi-structured interviews with key informants from government, private, and nonprofit sectors—the findings presented here demonstrate that e-waste management is hindered by limited capital, infrastructure, public awareness, and fragmented governance. While some high-capital institutions can export e-waste to mainland Ecuador, most residents and low-capital entities lack viable disposal options, leading to accumulation and improper disposal. The PIE analysis yielded findings that highlight how institutional power and financial capacity dictate the sustainability of e-waste pathways, with CE loops remaining largely incomplete. Despite national policy support for CE, implementation in Galapagos remains aspirational without targeted financial and logistical support. This case contributes to broader discussions on waste governance in island settings and underscores the need for integrated, equity-focused strategies to address e-waste in small island developing states (SIDS) and SNIJs globally. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tourism systems worldwide, particularly ecologically sensitive and tourism-dependent regions such as the Galapagos Islands. This study investigated the impact of the pandemic on profiles of tourists visiting Santa Cruz Island by comparing an analysis from 2019 to data we gathered in 2021. Using survey-based data and cluster analysis, we identified significant shifts in tourist origin, travel modalities, and expenditure patterns. Results showed a marked increase in domestic tourism, with Ecuadorians becoming the dominant visitor group during the pandemic, primarily favoring land-based tourism and shorter stays. In contrast, international tourists remained present in niche, higher-spending segments associated with cruise-based and multi-island itineraries. These findings highlight a temporary yet meaningful transformation in the tourism dynamic, driven by changes in risk perception, economic factors, and policy restrictions. The emergence of these segments underscores the need for adaptive destination management strategies that align with sustainability goals, conservation priorities, and socioeconomic resilience. We also demonstrated the value of structured surveys as a cost-effective tool for evidence-based decision-making in resource-constrained settings. Full article

Galapagos sharks (Carcharhinus galapagensis) are a large species belonging to the family Carcharhinidae, with poorly understood biology, especially along continental coastlines, which limits effective management of their populations. Here, we report preliminary findings of their movements along the Pacific Coast of Panama and Colombia, derived from satellite telemetry. Sharks were tracked for as long as 1.5 years, during which they moved extensively (~400 km along the Panama/Colombia coastline), with areas with high concentrations of detections that spanned the Panama/Colombia border. Sharks appeared to alter their movements during the diel cycle (more detections at night) and in relation to the wet/dry seasons (more detections during the dry season). Locations of shark detections were most commonly within 20 km of shore and in water less than 100 m deep, although detections were recorded hundreds of kilometers from shore in water thousands of meters deep. Galapagos sharks appear to move more extensively along continental coastlines compared to island locations, where most previous information about their movements and biology has been obtained. Full article

Background: Hansen’s disease or leprosy is one of the 21 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In Ecuador, leprosy is considered eliminated as a public health problem; however, new cases are reported annually. Additionally, Mycobacterium leprae infection was detected in nine-banded armadillos across the country, suggesting a potential zoonotic reservoir. This literature review aims to provide an updated overview of the epidemiological situation of leprosy in Ecuador, identify knowledge gaps, and outline research priorities to support the development of a comprehensive national strategy for achieving zero autochthonous cases. Methods: This article analyses the current situation of leprosy in Ecuador based on international and national publications. A retrospective literature search using five international, regional, and national publications on leprosy published between 1954 and 2024 (70 years) with no restriction on language or publication date, was performed. Findings: Our review identified 28 publications with the earliest article dating back to 1954. Of these, 14 were published in international journals, 15 (53.6%) were in Spanish. Four nationwide studies documented leprosy cases across Ecuador’s three continental regions (Coast, Andes, and Amazon) with a predominance in the tropical coast. No cases have been reported from the Galápagos Islands. From 1983, Ecuador started multi-drug therapy. Data from the Ministry of Public Health (MoH) system identified 1539 incident cases, showing a significant decline in new cases from 2000 to 2024, with no cases in children. New cases detection rate by 100,000 inhabitants was 0.51 in 2019 according to the World Health Organization (WHO). No study has genotyped the Mycobacterium spp. in human cases, other animal species, or environment. According to the MoH, multibacillary leprosy accounts for 78.95% of diagnosed cases, with confirmation based on Ziehl–Neelsen staining and histopathology. No survey has assessed disabilities, knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) or stigma related to leprosy. Research is needed on transmission routes, Mycobacterium genotyping, genetic susceptibility, and antibiotic resistance. BCG vaccination coverage fell to 75.3% in 2021. Cases are currently diagnosed and treated on an outpatient basis in large hospitals. Conclusions: This comprehensive review highlights persistent gaps in leprosy research and critical information, despite seven decades of documented cases in Ecuador. The disease is still endemic across the country, particularly at subnational level in the subtropics and tropics of the Pacific coast and the Amazon. There is a need for nationwide epidemiological research on reservoirs and the environment applying the One Health concept. Increased laboratory facilities and readily available official data are required to improve our understanding of leprosy in Ecuador. Strengthening community-level efforts is essential for Ecuador to meet the targets of the “WHO’s Towards Zero Leprosy: Strategy 2021–2030.” Full article

This study presents a multi-objective optimization framework for enhancing environmental performance in high-density residential complexes, addressing the critical balance between sunlight access, visual openness, and ground-level privacy. Applied to Helio City Phase 3 in Seoul—a challenging case with 2026 units surrounded by adjacent blocks—the research developed a sequential three-stage optimization strategy using computational design tools. The methodology employs Ladybug simulations for solar analysis, Galapagos genetic algorithms for view optimization, and parametric modeling for privacy assessment. Through grid-based layout reconfiguration, tower form modulation, and strategic conversion of vulnerable ground-floor units to public spaces, the optimized design achieved 100% sunlight standard compliance (improving from 64.31%), increased average visual openness to 66.31% (from 39.48%), and eliminated all privacy conflicts while adding 30 residential units. These results demonstrate that computational optimization can significantly surpass conventional planning approaches in addressing complex environmental trade-offs. The framework provides a replicable methodology for performance-driven residential design, offering quantitative tools for achieving regulatory compliance while enhancing residents’ experiential comfort in dense urban environments. Full article

When we hear of the Galapagos Islands, we think of a place of natural conservation and biological diversity, with the archipelago having been a World Heritage Site since 1978 and a Biosphere Reserve since 1984, expanding its area in 2019. In this study, while exploring the islands, we found that some places brought us spiritual delight, fostered internal recollection, and promoted reflection. Both islanders and tourists visited and evaluated these places using conceptual and combined methodological tools to determine which of these places constituted contemplation sites. The results allowed for a variety of sites that generate new experiences, imagination, spatial holograms, and mental routes for a user to identify, which allows for the creation of new recommended tourist routes and the categorization of intangible heritage, which can be potentiated by the community and tourists in a controlled manner, as indicated by this research. Full article

We studied Galápagos barn owls on Santa Cruz Island in the Galápagos Archipelago. We collected and analyzed pellets to determine diet composition. Barn-owl diet consisted—in terms of biomass—of ~89% rodents and ~10% insects. Bird remains occurred in 1% of the pellets. Foraging was studied with data loggers, a method not previously applied to the study of Galápagos barn owls. Owls rested during the day in natural and human-built roosts such as lava holes, trees, or huts. Night-time foraging was characterized by periods during which the bird moved and periods during which the bird stayed within one place, with the latter amounting to ~56% of the time away from the day roost. Birds began foraging shortly after sunset and returned to their day roost before sunrise. The duration of foraging was approximately 11 h per night. Foraging areas were small (median value: 0.28 km²). Although our data demonstrate a continued presence of the subspecies, we regard the situation for this subspecies as labile, as multiple threats, such as road kills, poisoning, and intentional killing by farmers, have increased recently, and suggest the development of a management plan to improve its conservation. Full article

Tubastraea coccinea and T. tagusensis, commonly known as sun corals, are two species of stony corals (Scleractinia, Dendrophylliidae) native to the Indo-Pacific region (T. coccinea) and the Galapagos Islands (T. tagusensis), respectively. They are considered highly invasive species, particularly in the Western Atlantic Ocean, due to high adaptability to various ecological conditions and notable resilience. Given their demonstrated invasiveness, it is important to delve into their physiology and the molecular bases supporting their resilience. However, to date, only a few molecular tools are available for the study of these organisms. The primary objective of the present study was the development of an efficient RNA extraction protocol for Tubastraea coccinea and T.a tagusensis samples collected off Ilha Grande Bay, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). The quantity of isolated RNA was evaluated using NanoDrop, while its purity and quality were determined by evaluating the A260/A280 and A260/230 ratios. Subsequently, based on genes known for T. coccinea, two housekeeping genes and seven stress response-related genes were isolated and characterized, for the first time for both species, using a molecular approach. An interactomic analysis was also conducted, which revealed functional interactions among these genes. This study represents the first report on gene networks in Tubastraea spp., opening new perspectives for understanding the chemical ecology and the cellular mechanisms underlying the invasiveness of these species. The results obtained will be useful for ecological conservation purposes, contributing to the formulation of strategies to limit their further expansion. Full article

The Galápagos Petrel (Pterodroma phaeopygia) is a long-lived Critically Endangered seabird endemic to the Galápagos Islands and faces severe threats from invasive species, particularly rodents. Until now, evidence of rat predation on Galápagos Petrel nestlings has been largely indirect, inferred from indirect evidence and predator control outcomes. Here, we present the first photographic documentation of a presumed black rat (Rattus rattus) preying on a Galápagos Petrel nestling, captured by a camera trap on private farmland on Santa Cruz Island. The predation event occurred during a period of parental absence, when the nestling was left unattended while adults foraged at sea. Notably, the parent Petrels continued returning to the nest for 91 days following nestling loss, suggesting strong nest fidelity and highlighting potential energetic costs associated with breeding failure. Our findings reveal critical vulnerabilities during the nestling-rearing phase and emphasize the urgent need to enhance rodent control efforts and protect nesting areas, particularly on farmland outside the Galápagos National Park boundaries. We conclude by providing targeted conservation recommendations to mitigate invasive predator impacts and improve breeding success for this emblematic and imperiled seabird. Full article

Background/Objectives: Preclinical models of liver fibrosis only partially mimic human disease processes. Particularly, traditional transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFβ1)-induced hepatic stellate cell (HSC) models lack relevant processes, including hypoxia-induced pathways. Here, the ability of a hypoxia-mimicking compound (IOX2) to more accurately reflect the human fibrotic phenotype on a functional level was investigated. Methods: Human primary HSCs were stimulated (TGFβ1 +/− IOX2), and the cell viability and fibrotic phenotype were determined. The latter was assessed as protein levels of fibrosis markers—collagen, TIMP-1, and Fibronectin. Next-generation sequencing (NGS), differential expression analyses (DESeq2), and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) were performed for mechanistic evaluation and biological annotation. Results: Stimulation with TGFβ1 + IOX2 significantly increased fibrotic marker levels. Also, fibrosis-related pathways were activated, and hypoxia-related genes and collagen modifications, such as crosslinking, increased dose-dependently. Comparative analysis with human fibrotic DEGs showed improved disease representation in the HSC model in the presence of IOX2. Conclusions: In conclusion, the HSC model better recapitulated liver fibrosis by IOX2 administration. Therefore, hypoxia-mimicking compounds hold promise for enhancing the translational value of in vitro fibrosis models, providing valuable insights in liver fibrosis pathogenesis and potential therapeutic strategies. Full article