Search Results (784)

This study addresses the challenges of data imbalance and missing values in credit card transaction datasets by employing mode-based imputation and various machine learning models. We analyzed two distinct datasets: one consisting of European cardholders and the other from American Express, applying multiple machine learning algorithms, including Artificial Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks, and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees, as well as others. Notably, the Gradient Boosted Decision Tree demonstrated superior predictive performance, with accuracy increasing by 4.53%, reaching 96.92% on the European cardholders dataset. Mode imputation significantly improved data quality, enabling stable and reliable analysis of merged datasets with up to 50% missing values. Hypothesis testing confirmed that the performance of the merged dataset was statistically significant compared to the original datasets. This study highlights the importance of robust data handling techniques in developing effective fraud detection systems, setting the stage for future research on combining different datasets and improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector. Full article

Credit-linked notes (CLNs) are vital for transferring and diversifying credit risks in asset securitization, yet their application in China remains limited despite policy support. This paper optimizes China’s CLN pricing mechanism by developing the structured model incorporating the dynamic default boundary and the probability of government implicit guarantees. The model transforms the pricing problem into a semi-unbounded problem via partial differential methods, yielding an explicit pricing solution through Poisson’s formula. Empirical analysis reveals that government implicit guarantees are observed in systemically important institutions in the domestic CLN market and significantly reduce credit risk premiums, with Monte Carlo simulations indicating an approximately positive linear correlation between guarantee probability and CLN prices. Our results demonstrate the dual impact of implicit guarantees—lowering risk premiums while potentially hindering market discipline. This research advances China’s credit derivative pricing theory, offering institutions a pricing tool and further providing policy and practical suggestions for regulatory authorities. Full article

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) provides three-dimensional information that can be used to extract tree parameter measurements such as height (H), canopy volume (CV), canopy diameter (CD), canopy area (CA), and tree stand density. LiDAR data does not directly give diameter at breast height (DBH), an important input into allometric equations to estimate biomass. The main objective of this study is to estimate tree DBH using existing allometric models. Specifically, it compares three global DBH pantropical models to calculate DBH and to estimate the aboveground biomass (AGB) of the Lake Broadwater Forest located in Southeast (SE) Queensland, Australia. LiDAR data collected in mid-2022 was used to test these models, with field validation data collected at the beginning of 2024. The three DBH estimation models—the Jucker model, Gonzalez-Benecke model 1, and Gonzalez-Benecke model 2—all used tree H, and the Jucker and Gonzalez-Benecke model 2 additionally used CD and CA, respectively. Model performance was assessed using five statistical metrics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), percentage bias (MBias), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The Jucker model was the best-performing model, followed by Gonzalez-Benecke model 2 and Gonzalez-Benecke model 1. The Jucker model had an RMSE of 8.7 cm, an MAE of −13.54 cm, an MAPE of 7%, an MBias of 13.73 cm, and an R² of 0.9005. The Chave AGB model was used to estimate the AGB at the tree, plot, and per hectare levels using the Jucker model-calculated DBH and the field-measured DBH. AGB was used to estimate total biomass, dry weight, carbon (C), and carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestered per hectare. The Lake Broadwater Forest was estimated to have an AGB of 161.5 Mg/ha in 2022, a Total C of 65.6 Mg/ha, and a CO₂ sequestered of 240.7 Mg/ha in 2022. These findings highlight the substantial carbon storage potential of the Lake Broadwater Forest, reinforcing the opportunity for landholders to participate in the carbon credit systems, which offer financial benefits and enable contributions to carbon mitigation programs, thereby helping to meet national and global carbon reduction targets. Full article

This work presents a parallel agent-based framework designed to analyze the dynamics of vegetable trade within a metropolitan area. The system integrates agent-based and discrete event techniques to capture the complex interactions among farmers, vendors, and consumers in urban agricultural supply chains. Decision-making processes are modeled in detail: farmers select crops based on market trends and environmental risks, while vendors and consumers adapt their purchasing behavior according to seasonality, prices, and availability. To efficiently handle the computational demands of large-scale scenarios, we adopt an optimistic approximate parallel execution strategy. Furthermore, we introduce a credit-based load balancing mechanism that mitigates the effects of heterogeneous communication patterns and improves scalability. This framework enables detailed analysis of food distribution systems in urban contexts, offering insights relevant to smart cities and digital agriculture initiatives. Full article

This paper explores the effectiveness of an innovative FinTech risk-scoring model to predict the risk-appropriate return for short-term credit sales. The risk score serves to mitigate the information asymmetry between the seller of receivables (“Seller”) and the purchaser (“Funder”), at the same time providing an opportunity for the Funder to earn returns as well as to diversify its portfolio on a risk-appropriate basis. Selling receivables/credit to potential Funders at a risk-appropriate discount also helps Sellers to maintain their short-term financial liquidity and provide the necessary cash flow for operations and other immediate financial needs. We use 18,304 short-term credit-sale transactions between 23 April 2020 and 30 September 2022 from the private FinTech startup Crowdz and its Sustainability, Underwriting, Risk & Financial (SURF) risk-scoring system to analyze the risk/return relationship. The data includes risk scores for both Sellers of receivables (e.g., invoices) along with the Obligors (firms purchasing goods and services from the Seller) on those receivables and provides, as outputs, the mutual gains by the Sellers and the financial institutions or other investors funding the receivables (i.e., the Funders). Our analysis shows that the SURF Score is instrumental in mitigating the information asymmetry between the Sellers and the Funders and provides risk-appropriate periodic returns to the Funders across industries. A comparative analysis shows that the use of SURF technology generates higher risk-appropriate annualized internal rates of return (IRR) as compared to nonuse of the SURF Score risk-scoring system in these transactions. While Sellers and Funders enter into a win-win relationship (in the absence of a default), Sellers of credit instruments are not often scored based on the potential diversification by industry classification. Crowdz’s SURF technology does so and provides Funders with diversification opportunities through numerous invoices of differing amounts and SURF Scores in a wide range of industries. The analysis also shows that Sellers generally have lower financing stability as compared to the Obligors (payers on receivables), a fact captured in the SURF Scores. Full article

The transition toward a circular water economy addresses accelerating water scarcity and pollution. A PRISMA-2020 systematic review of 50 peer-reviewed articles (January 2018–April 2024) mapped current technologies and management strategies, seeking patterns, barriers, and critical bottlenecks. Bibliometric analysis revealed the following three dominant patterns: (i) rapid diffusion of membrane bioreactors, constructed wetlands, and advanced oxidation processes; (ii) research geographically concentrated in Asia and the European Union; (iii) industry’s marked preference for by-product valorization. Key barriers—high energy costs, fragmented regulatory frameworks, and low social acceptance—converge as critical constraints during scale-up. The following three practical action lines emerge: (1) adopt progressive tariffs and targeted tax credits that internalize environmental externalities; (2) harmonize water-reuse regulations with comparable circularity metrics; (3) create multi-actor platforms that co-design projects, boosting local legitimacy. These findings provide policymakers and water-sector practitioners with a clear roadmap for accelerating Sustainable Development Goals 6, 9, and 12 through circular, inclusive, low-carbon water systems. Full article

To promote the deepening of reform and the effective implementation of policies, the State Council launched the special supervision of the liquidation of local governments’ arrears in project funds in 2016, which supports the optimization of the government debt structure. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the special supervision action, in this study, we use the difference-in-difference (DID) method to investigate the effect and mechanism of the optimization of the government debt structure on the financing constraints of private enterprises. This research is particularly relevant for private enterprises, which face acute financing challenges and are critical for promoting inclusive economic growth, employment, and innovation—key pillars of sustainable development. The results are as follows. Firstly, the special supervision significantly reduces the financing constraints of private enterprises. Secondly, it has heterogeneous effects on the financing constraints of different types of enterprises, and the alleviating effect is particularly significant for enterprises that rely on the funding support of local governments. This highlights the importance of institutional reforms in fostering equitable access to financial resources for vulnerable enterprise groups such as private enterprises. Thirdly, the optimization of the government debt structure eases enterprises’ financing constraints by improving their capital turnover and trade credit. By enhancing liquidity and creditworthiness, these changes create a more resilient financial environment for private enterprises, supporting their long-term development and contribution to sustainable economic systems. Full article

This paper presents an innovative exam-creation and grading system powered by advanced natural language processing and local large language models. The system automatically generates clear, grammatically accurate questions from both short passages and longer documents across different languages, supports multiple formats and difficulty levels, and ensures semantic diversity while minimizing redundancy, thus maximizing the percentage of the material that is covered in the generated exam paper. For grading, it employs a semantic-similarity model to evaluate essays and open-ended responses, awards partial credit, and mitigates bias from phrasing or syntax via named entity recognition. A major advantage of the proposed approach is its ability to run entirely on standard personal computers, without specialized artificial intelligence hardware, promoting privacy and exam security while maintaining low operational and maintenance costs. Moreover, its modular architecture allows the seamless swapping of models with minimal intervention, ensuring adaptability and the easy integration of future improvements. A requirements–compliance evaluation, combined with established performance metrics, was used to review and compare two popular multilingual LLMs and monolingual alternatives, demonstrating the system’s effectiveness and flexibility. The experimental results show that the system achieves a grading accuracy within a 17% normalized error margin compared to that of human experts, with generated questions reaching up to 89.5% semantic similarity to source content. The full exam generation and grading pipeline runs efficiently on consumer-grade hardware, with average inference times under 30 s. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between sovereign credit rating transitions and domestic equity market performance, focusing on Greece from 2004 to 2024. Although credit ratings are central to sovereign risk assessment, their immediate influence on financial markets remains contested. This research adopts a multi-method analytical framework combining algebraic combinatorics and time-series econometrics. The methodology incorporates the construction of a directed credit rating transition graph, the partially ordered set representation of rating hierarchies, rolling-window correlation analysis, Granger causality testing, event study evaluation, and the formulation of a reward matrix with optimal rating path optimization. Empirical results indicate that credit rating announcements in Greece exert only modest short-term effects on the Athens Stock Exchange General Index, implying that markets often anticipate these changes. In contrast, sequential downgrade trajectories elicit more pronounced and persistent market responses. The reward matrix and path optimization approach reveal structured investor behavior that is sensitive to the cumulative pattern of rating changes. These findings offer a more nuanced interpretation of how sovereign credit risk is processed and priced in transparent and fiscally disciplined environments. By bridging network-based algebraic structures and economic data science, the study contributes a novel methodology for understanding systemic financial signals within sovereign credit systems. Full article

Credit supervision of practitioners in the water conservancy construction market, a vital pillar of national infrastructure development, significantly impacts project safety and the maintenance of order in the industry. From the perspective of indirect supervision, this study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving government departments, enterprises, and practitioners to analyze the dynamic evolution mechanism of credit supervision. By examining the strategic interactions among the three parties under different regulatory scenarios, we identify key factors influencing the stable equilibrium of evolution and verify the theoretical conclusions through numerical simulations. The study yields several key insights. First, while government regulation and social supervision can substantially increase the likelihood of practitioners’ integrity, relying solely on administrative regulation has an efficiency limit. Second, the effectiveness of the reward and punishment mechanism of the direct manager plays a crucial leveraging role in credit evolution. Lastly, under differentiated regulatory strategies, high-credit practitioners respond more strongly to long-term cost optimization, while low-credit practitioners are more effectively deterred by short-term, high-intensity disciplinary actions. Based on these findings, this study proposes a systematic governance framework of “regulatory model innovation–corporate responsibility enhancement–social supervision deepening.” Unlike previous studies, this framework adopts a comprehensive approach from three dimensions: regulatory model innovation, corporate responsibility enhancement, and social supervision deepening. It offers a more holistic and systematic solution for refining the credit system in the water conservancy construction market, providing both theoretical support and practical approaches. Full article

This study presents an optimization framework for a utility-scale hybrid power plant (HPP) that integrates wind power plants (WPPs), solar power plants (SPPs), and battery energy storage systems (BESS) using historical and probabilistic weather modeling, regulatory incentives, and multi-objective trade-offs. By employing multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), the study simultaneously optimizes three key objectives: economic performance (maximizing net present value, NPV), system reliability (minimizing loss of power supply probability, LPSP), and operational efficiency (reducing curtailment). The optimized HPP (283 MW wind, 20 MW solar, and 500 MWh BESS) yields an NPV of $165.2 million, a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $0.065/kWh, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 10.24%, and a 9.24-year payback, demonstrating financial viability. Operational efficiency is maintained with <4% curtailment and 8.26% LPSP. Key findings show that grid imports improve reliability (LPSP drops to 1.89%) but reduce economic returns; higher wind speeds (11.6 m/s) allow 27% smaller designs with 54.6% capacity factors; and tax credits (30%) are crucial for viability at low PPA rates (≤$0.07/kWh). Validation via Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) confirms robustness. The study improves hybrid power plant design by combining weather predictions, policy changes, and optimizing three goals, providing a flexible renewable energy option for reducing carbon emissions. Full article

As an emerging e-commerce model, live streaming e-commerce integrates instant interaction, content marketing, and online sales to bring consumers a new shopping experience. However, there are many risks in the process of live e-commerce transactions. Identifying key risk factors and implementing targeted control measures are crucial for promoting the sustainable and healthy development of live streaming e-commerce. This paper firstly constructs a business model of live streaming e-commerce transactions according to the transaction scenario and summarizes 24 risk factors from the three dimensions of live streaming e-commerce platforms, merchants, and anchors based on relevant national standards and other relevant literature. Secondly, the Delphi method is employed to modify and optimize the initial risk factors. On this basis, the social network model of risk factors is constructed to determine the influence relationship among risk factors. By calculating the degree centrality, factor types are segmented, and key risk factors as well as influence paths are identified. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The results indicate that Credit Evaluation System Perfection, Service Evaluation System Perfection, Qualification Audit Mechanism Perfection, Dispute Complaint Handling Channels Perfection, Risk Identification Mechanism Perfection, Platform Qualification, Merchant Qualification, and Merchant Credit are the critical risk factors affecting live streaming e-commerce transactions. Full article

Family structure has long been regarded as an important determinant of household saving, yet the empirical evidence for developing economies remains limited. Using the 2018–2022 panels of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), a nationwide survey that follows 16,519 households across three waves, the present study investigates how family size, the elderly share, and the child share jointly shape saving behavior. A household fixed effects framework is employed to control for time-invariant heterogeneity, followed by a sequential endogeneity strategy: external-shock instruments are tested and rejected, lagged two-stage least squares implement internal instruments, and a dynamic System-GMM model is estimated to capture saving persistence. Robustness checks include province-by-year fixed effects, inverse probability weighting for attrition, balanced-panel replication, alternative variable definitions, lag structures, and sample filters. Family size raises the saving rate by 4.6 percentage points in the preferred dynamic specification (p < 0.01). The elderly ratio remains insignificant throughout, whereas the child ratio exerts a negative but model-sensitive association. A three-path mediation analysis indicates that approximately 26 percent of the total family size effect operates through scale economy savings on quasi-fixed expenses, 19 percent is offset by resource dilution pressure, and less than 1 percent flows through a precautionary saving channel linked to income volatility. These findings extend the resource dilution literature by quantifying the relative strength of competing mechanisms in a middle-income context and showing that cost-sharing economies dominate child-related dilution for most households. Policy discussion highlights the importance of public childcare subsidies and targeted credit access for rural parents, whose saving capacity is the most constrained by additional children. The study also demonstrates that fixed effects estimates of family structure can be upward-biased unless dynamic saving behavior and internal instruments are considered. Full article

This study investigates the impacts of financial inclusion, development, and technological innovation on ESG readiness across low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries from 2004 to 2020. Grounded in an augmented environmental Kuznets curve framework, financial intermediation, and financial literacy theories, the analysis employs a panel data approach. Results from panel and quantile regressions reveal that financial inclusion and financial development positively influence ESG readiness, with stronger effects in less financially developed countries. However, in upper-middle-income countries, excessive credit may increase energy-intensive consumption, moderating sustainability gains. Financial inclusion negatively affects ESG readiness at lower quantiles in low-innovation contexts but enhances it at higher quantiles in high-innovation settings. Financial development consistently supports ESG readiness, which is amplified by technological innovation. Effects are stronger in less financially developed countries, moderated by energy-intensive consumption in upper-middle-income economies. The findings underscore the critical role of technological infrastructure in maximising the sustainability benefits of financial systems, advocating for technology-supported financial inclusion and green financing. This study enriches the sustainable development literature and informs policies for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

In recent years, numerous regions worldwide have experienced devastating natural disasters, leading to significant structural damage to buildings and loss of human lives. The reconstruction process highlights the need for a reliable method to document and track the maintenance history of buildings. This paper introduces a novel approach for managing and monitoring restoring interventions using a secure and transparent digital framework. We will also present an application aimed at improving building structures with respect to earthquake resistance. The proposed system, referred as the “Building Ledger Dossier”, leverages a Digital Twin approach applied to blockchain to establish an immutable record of all structural interventions. The framework models buildings using OpenSees, while all maintenance, repair activities, and documents are registered as Non-Fungible Tokens on a blockchain network, ensuring timestamping, transparency, and accountability. A Decentralized Autonomous Organization oversees identity management and work validation, enhancing security and efficiency in building restoration efforts. This approach provides a scalable and globally applicable solution for improving both ante-disaster monitoring and post-disaster reconstruction, ensuring a comprehensive, verifiable history of structural interventions and fostering trust among stakeholders. The proposed method is also applicable to other types of processes that require the aforementioned properties for document monitoring, such as the life-cycle management of tax credits and operations in the financial or banking sectors. Full article