Search Results (13)

The Western Songnen Plain, a critical yet ecologically fragile grain-producing area, is facing sustainability risks arising from rapid land use changes, which demand scientific assessment and regulation. From an ecological security standpoint, this study synthesizes multiple data sources, including GlobeLand30 data, climate, topography, and soil data. Based on the assessment of water conservation, soil conservation and biodiversity maintenance, combined with minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR) and the CLUMondo model, this study comprehensively reveals the dynamic evolutionary patterns of land use in the Western Songnen Plain over the past two decades, concurrently analyzed the spatial heterogeneity pattern of ecosystem services, and further simulated land use changes under natural growth, farmland protection, and ecological security scenarios. According to the results, the grassland area decreased significantly, while cropland and construction land continued to expand. Water conservation, soil conservation, and habitat quality displayed remarkable regional differences, with high values predominantly situated in wetlands, grasslands, and mountainous regions. In contrast, low values exhibited strong spatial correspondence with regions of heightened anthropogenic disturbance. Although the cropland protection scenario promoted agricultural intensification, it reduced ecological heterogeneity. In contrast, the ecological security scenario achieved a higher patch density (0.408) and landscape diversity (1.142) compared to the natural growth scenario, with moderate increases in aggregation. This study identified 27 ecological pinch points, 24 ecological barrier points, and 97 ecological corridors, which provide direct support for regional water and soil resource protection and further underpin the constructed ecological security pattern of “two belts, three zones, and multiple nodes”. These findings have important reference significance for optimizing regional land use structure and maintaining the stability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Western Songnen Plain. Full article

Cropland dynamics in ecologically fragile regions are central to balancing food security and ecological integrity in the Yellow River Basin. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as a case study. An integrated simulation framework is developed by coupling an improved grey prediction model (Improved GM(1,1)) with the CLUMondo spatial model. The analysis addresses four questions: how cropland changed during 2009–2024, which drivers explain cropland suitability and transitions, what spatial resolution is appropriate for implementation, and how cropland patterns differ under alternative development pathways for 2025–2040. Historical cropland change in Ningxia during 2009–2024 is quantified, and spatial patterns for 2025–2040 are projected under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), ecological protection (EP), and rapid urbanization (URE). Cropland change during 2009–2024 shows pronounced phased fluctuations and a stable redistribution pattern described as “southern reduction and northern replenishment, urban decrease and rural increase”. Population growth, economic expansion, and policy regulation jointly drive this spatiotemporal reconfiguration. Land demand forecasting is improved by introducing a metabolism mechanism and residual correction into the grey model, which reduces mid- to long-term divergence. Multi-scale logistic regression tests show the highest AUC at 50 m, with AUC values exceeding 0.8 across land categories, and this resolution is used for model implementation. Model performance is evaluated using AUC, Kappa, and overall accuracy, supporting the applicability of the framework in arid, ecologically fragile regions. Scenario simulations reveal clear divergence in future spatial outcomes. BAU maintains sustained pressure on cropland protection and ecological security. URE increases the risk of encroachment on high-quality cropland in the central–northern irrigated areas due to urban expansion. EP constrains construction land growth and secures strategic ecological spaces, thereby slowing the loss of high-quality cropland while maintaining development capacity. These results provide a transparent basis for scenario-based territorial spatial planning in Ningxia and offer transferable evidence for managing cropland–ecology tradeoffs in arid and semi-arid regions. Full article

Exploring and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of carbon storage in typical mountain forest ecosystems under land-use changes is crucial for curbing the effects of climate change and fostering sustainable, eco-friendly growth. The existing literature provides important references for our related studies but further expansion and improvements are needed in some aspects. This study first proposed an integrated framework comprising gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP), Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Patch-level Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS), and optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD) models to further expand and improve on existing research. Then, the integrated model was used to analyze the spatial–temporal variation in land-use pattern and carbon storage at the county scale in China’s Daiyun Mountain’s Rim under four scenarios in 2032, and analyze the driving force of spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results indicated that (1) land-use change primarily involves the mutual transfer among forest, cultivated, and construction land, with approximately 7.2% of the land-use type area undergoing a transition; (2) in 2032, the natural development scenario projects a significant reduction in forest land and an expansion of cultivated, shrub, and construction lands. Conversely, the economic priority, ecological priority, and economic–ecological coordinated scenarios all anticipate a decline in cultivated land area; (3) in 2032, the natural development scenario will see a 2.8 Tg drop in carbon stock compared to 2022. In contrast, the economic priority, ecological priority, and economic–ecological coordinated scenarios are expected to increase carbon storage by 0.29 Tg, 2.62 Tg, and 1.65 Tg, respectively; (4) the spatial differentiation of carbon storage is jointly influenced by various factors, with the annual mean temperature, night light index, elevation, slope, and population density being the key influencing factors. In addition, the influence of natural factors on carbon storage is diminishing, whereas the impact of socioeconomic factors is on the rise. This study deepened, to a certain extent, the research on spatiotemporal dynamics simulation of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms under land-use changes in mountainous forest ecosystems. The results can serve to provide scientific support for carbon balance management and climate adaptation strategies at the county scale while also offering case studies that can inform similar regions around the world. However, several limitations remain, as follows: the singularity of carbon density data, and the research scope being confined to small-scale mountainous forest ecosystems. Future studies could consider collecting continuous annual soil carbon density data and employing land-use simulation models (such as PLUS or CLUMondo) appropriate to the study area’s dimensions. Full article

While stakeholder-driven approaches have been increasingly used in scenario modeling, previous studies have mostly focused on the qualitative elements, e.g., narratives and policy documents, from the stakeholders, but lack engagement of stakeholders with quantitative inputs. In this study, we conducted workshops with a stakeholder group to integrate the participatory mapping of future policies in the simulation, and to compare the environmental impacts after including the participatory mapping. A land system change model named CLUMondo was used to simulate four scenarios, i.e., Business-As-Usual (BAU), Destroying Resources in Owyhee (DRO), Ecological Conservation (EC), and Managed Recreation (MR), in Owyhee County, Idaho, United States. The InVEST models were used to assess water yield, soil erosion, and wildlife habitat under the four scenarios. The results show that the DRO scenario would decrease shrubland and increased grassland, thus leading to less water yield, more soil erosion, and deteriorated wildlife habitat anticipated through to 2050. On the contrary, the EC and MR scenarios reverse the trend and would improve these ecosystem services over the same time horizon. The stakeholder-driven policies appear to influence the spatial distribution of the land system and ecosystem services. The results help to reach a nuanced understanding of the stakeholder-driven scenarios and highlight the importance of engaging stakeholders in scenario modeling and environmental impact analysis. Full article

In the context of global change, land cover change is significantly influenced by human activities. However, there is limited knowledge about the potential economic and ecological benefits that land cover change on the Ruoergai Plateau will bring by 2035, considering the existing development plans. In our study, the CLUMondo model was improved by integrating the MaxEnt model and Boltzmann entropy and used to predict the structure and intensity of land change in China’s Ruoergai Plateau. The results show that the model integrated with MaxEnt and Boltzmann entropy is the most accurate in four contrasting experiments that have a Kappa of 0.773. The predicted results show that with the increase in the demand for ecological benefits, the total area of the water area shows a clear increasing trend. With 0.25% GDP growth, the water area is about 178 km². With 2.5% GEP growth, the water area is about 202 km². The latter is 24 km² more than the former, an increase of about 13.6%. With the increase in the demand for economic benefits, the total area of construction land shows a clear increasing trend. Grassland, forest, and cropland are partly converted into construction land, because of the higher economic benefits of construction land. At the same time, the density of construction land will increase. With 12.6% GDP growth, the high-density construction area is about 399 km². With 126.1% GEP growth, the water area is about 761 km². High-density construction land increased by 90.7% (about 362 km²). In the low elevation area near the mountains of Ruoergai County, a new concentration of construction land will appear. The simulation results are of great significance for guiding ecological protection and urban construction in Ruoergai. Full article

By predicting and analyzing regional land use conflicts (LUCs), the contradictory relationship between urban development and land resources can be revealed, which can assist in achieving the rational use of land resources. Taking Liyang as a case study, this paper simulated land use in 2030 under three scenarios, namely, the natural growth scenario (NGS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), using the CLUMondo model. The ecological risk assessment model was used to measure the LUCs under each scenario. Through the comprehensive analysis of land use conversion, spatial distribution, and the change characteristics of LUCs, optimization strategies for future land use are proposed. The results indicate that (1) the intensity of land conversion under the three scenarios is ranked as EDS > NGS > EPS; (2) there is little change in the LUCs under the EPS, while significant deterioration is observed under the NGS and EDS; (3) the intensity of LUCs is positively correlated with the degree of land use conversion; and (4) in the future, particular attention should be paid to areas around the city center, the Caoshan Development Zone in the northwest, and Nanshan Bamboo Sea in the south, where high-intensity land use conflicts may occur. Full article

Land-use changes have profound effects on both socio-economic development and the environment. As a result, to optimize land-use planning and management, models are often employed to identify land-use patterns and their associated driving forces. In this work, physical and socioeconomic factors within the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) from 2000 to 2015 were identified, integrated, and used as the foundation for a CLUMondo model. Subsequently, the Markov model and the CLUMondo model were combined to predict land-use changes in 2035. Natural growth (NG), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and coordinated social and economic development (CSE) scenarios were set according to the land-use date in the assessment. Results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2015, urban land increased by 8139.5 km² (3.93%), and the paddy field decreased by 7315.8 km² (8.78%). The Kappa coefficient of the CLUMondo model was 0.86, indicating that this model can be used to predict the land-use changes of the YRDUA. (2) When this trend was used to simulate landscape patterns in 2035, the land-use structure and landscape patterns varied among the four simulated urban development scenarios. Specifically, urban land increased by 47.6% (NG), 39.6% (ED), 32.9% (EP), and 23.2% (CSE). The paddy field was still the primary landscape, with 35.85% NG, 36.95% ED, 37.01% EP, and 36.96% CSE. Furthermore, under all four scenarios, the landscape pattern tended to simplify and fragment, while connectivity and equilibrium diminished. The results provided herein are intended to elucidate the law of urban agglomeration development and aid in promoting urban sustainable development. Full article

In the past two decades, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China (MARA) has issued a series of strict cultivated land protection policies to prevent the spread of farmland abandonment and maintain a dynamic balance between the quantity and quality of arable land. However, high-speed economic development, strict arable land protection policies, and ecological security and sustainable development strategies interacting with human activities have brought challenges to quantifying the effectiveness of arable land protection policies. In this study, we proposed a method to quantify the impacts of the arable land protection policies and evaluate the quantitative impacts on farmland abandonment in Guangdong Province after 2014 from the perspective of landscape ecology. The results illustrated that the landscape fragmentation of farmland abandonment in Guangdong Province decreased after the new arable land policies were issued. More annual farmland abandonment (AFA) shifted to seasonal farmland abandonment (SFA), revealing the considerable pronounced effects of farmland abandonment management. The new policies effectively restrained the area increase for AFA in the regions with lower rural population (RPOP) and lower gross domestic product (GDP), and reduced the fragmentation of AFA in the regions with the highest RPOP and lower GDP. Additionally, the new policies effectively restrained the fragmentation increase for SFA in the regions with lower RPOP and lower GDP, and reduced the area increase for SFA in the regions with the highest RPOP and lower GDP. The management effect was not that significant in the regions with higher RPOP and higher GDP. These findings will provide important data references for arable land decision making in southern China. Full article

China’s growth plans include a carbon emission peak policy, which is a restriction that indirectly impacts land use structure. In this study, we simulate different paths for achieving policy objectives, and explore the linkages between those paths and land use change. The IPAT model was used to simulate the carbon emissions generated from a natural development scenario, an ideal policy scenario, and a retributive carbon emission scenario in China from 2020 to 2030. The simulation results were incorporated into the CLUMondo model as a demand driver to simulate the land use change in 2030. The results show that carbon emission peak policy can somewhat reduce carbon emissions and increase building land in a regulated way. However, the policy may also lead to a short-term surge in carbon emissions, a reactive expansion of arable land and building land. This may reduce losses in economic development when carbon emissions are limited, but does not achieve the integration of social, economic, and ecological goals. This study links the carbon emission peak policy with land use change and provides a fresh perspective on the Chinese government’s carbon reduction policy. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change are major driving forces that impact ecosystem services and affect human well-being directly and indirectly. Under the future interaction between LULC and climate change, the impact of different land management and climate change scenarios on water-related services is uncertain. Based on this, the CLUMondo model, which focuses on land use intensity, was used to simulate the land system under different land management scenarios in the future. By coupling the downscaled climate scenario data, this study used the InVEST and RUSLE models to estimate the annual water yield and soil erosion in 2050 in the Hengduan Mountain region and analyzed the variation differences in different sub-watersheds. The results indicated that, under the influence of LULC and climate change, when compared with the amount for 2020, the soil erosion in the Hengduan Mountain region in 2050 was reduced by 1.83, 3.40, and 2.91% under the TREND scenario, FOREST scenario, and CONSERVATION scenario, respectively, while the water yield decreased by 5.05, 5.37, and 5.21%, respectively. Moreover, the change in soil erosion in the study area was affected by precipitation and closely related to the precipitation intensity, and the impact of climate change on the water yield was significantly greater than that of LULC change. The spatial heterogeneity of soil erosion and water yield was obvious at the sub-watershed scale. In the future, soil erosion control should be strengthened in the northern regions, while water resource monitoring and early warning should be emphasized in the central-eastern regions. Our results provide scientific guidance for policy makers to formulate better LULC policies to achieve regional water and soil balance and sustainable management. Full article

The supply and demand of ecosystem services are affected by land use. Only a few studies have conducted in-depth quantitative analyses. This study adopted the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research area. The CLUMondo model was adopted to infer the land-use pattern under protection, development, and natural scenarios in 2035. Moreover, the InVEST model was utilized to evaluate carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation under multiple land-use patterns. The production possibility frontier was drawn to visualize the trade-off relationship further. The trade-off intensity index was calculated to quantify the magnitude of the trade-off. (1) Under the development scenario, the accelerated expansion of urbanized land will occupy a large amount of arable and forest land, which should be planned and controlled. (2) The trade-off and synergistic relationships could be transformed under the different land-use scenarios. (3) The production possibility frontier curve for each ecosystem service trade-off and the optimal value of the trade-off configuration were plotted for the different scenarios. The trade-off intensity of ecosystem services was also calculated. This study combined ecosystem services with land-use regulations and revealed the link between ecosystem services and regional land-use pattern change. The aim is to provide a reference for the synergistic progress of the ecological economy in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Full article

In the last few decades, land use/land cover (LULC) has changed significantly under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, and this has had a profound impact on the regional ecological environment. By taking the Hengduan Mountain region as the study area, this study considered the demands of various commodities and services and applied the CLUMondo model to predict the trajectory of change in the land system for the years 2010–2030. The results indicate that the forest system expands significantly in this time, while the grassland and cropland systems are projected to develop intensively under the three scenarios. The high demand for livestock products is the main cause of the intensification of the grassland system under the TREND scenario, the demand for forests leads to the expansion of the forest land system under the FOREST scenario, and the significant intensification of the cropland system under the CONSERVATION scenario is closely related to an increase in the area of ecological land. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the optimal management of land systems in other mountainous areas. Full article

The dietary change of Chinese residents is driven by increasing incomes and urbanization, which will bring about non-negligible changes in the food production of the land system. To explore how dietary changes might influence future land systems and the environment, this research hypothesizes two potential dietary change scenarios in the period 2010–2030, based on the current trends and Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (DGCR), and applies the CLUMondo model to simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of land systems and estimates a lifecycle’s environmental impacts on dietary change. As shown in the results, dietary changes would obviously alter the land cover, agricultural intensity, and livestock density of land systems, and the changes in land use intensity are noteworthy. If the current trend of dietary change is unchecked, the intensification and expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry would be widely distributed in North China and Northwest China, where the intensity of cropland was low in the past and the ecosystem was relatively fragile. Moreover, the increasing demands for food lead to sharp increases in the carbon footprint, water footprint, and ecological footprint from food production. In contrast, the balanced diet recommended by DGCR could offer considerable environmental benefits. This diet is conducive to cutting down land use intensity, helping natural systems avoid intensification, and the expansion of agriculture and animal husbandry, which lower footprints from food production and have helped to implement the policy of returning croplands to grassland and forests in China. Therefore, popularizing balanced diets could be a win–win for human health and environmental sustainability. Full article