Search Results (14)

Knowledge of global radiation (Hg) is essential for regional economic development and can help guide public policies related to agricultural and energy potential. However, its availability in several Brazilian regions is still limited. This work evaluates the predictive capacity of two machine learning (ML) techniques, such as multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) and support vector machines (SVMs), in the estimation of Hg in 20 meteorological stations with 40 different input combinations involving insolation, air temperature, air relative humidity, photoperiod, and extraterrestrial radiation. It is also compared with three empirical models based on insolation, temperature, and a hybrid combination. In general, the greater the number of input variables, the better the performance of ML techniques, especially in combinations involving insolation that reduced the dispersion of estimated Hg on days with high atmospheric transmissivity and air temperature on days with low atmospheric transmissivity. The performance of SVM was better when compared to MLP in all statistical indicators. ML techniques presented better results than empirical models, and in general, the ordering of the best models in the three locations is achieved using SVM, MLP, and empirical models. Therefore, due to their easy implementation and generation of good results, the use of SVM models is recommended to estimate daily global radiation in the Brazilian Amazon. Full article

This article describes the main features of the impacts of global observations on the reduction of errors in the data assimilation (DA) cycle carried out in the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM) at Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies [Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)] at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)]. These results show the importance of studying and evaluating the contribution of each observation to the DA system, therefore, two experiments (exp1/exp2) were performed with different configurations of the BAM model, with exp2 presenting the best fit between the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and BAM systems. The BAM model was validated by the statistical metrics of root mean-square error and correlation anomaly, but this validation is not explored in this paper. A metric was applied that does not depend on the adjoint-based method, but only on the residuals that are made available in the GSI system for the observation space, given by the total impact, the fractional impact and the fractional beneficial impact. In general, the average daily showed that the observations of the global system that contribute most to the reduction of errors in the DA cycle are from the pilot balloon data (−3.54/−3.45 J kg⁻¹)and the profilers (−2.13/−1.97 J kg⁻¹), and the smallest contributions came from the land (−0.28/−0.29 J kg⁻¹) and sea (−0.44/−0.44 J kg⁻¹) surfaces. The same pattern was observed for the synoptic times presented. However, when verifying the fraction of the impact by each type of observation, it was found that the radiance data (64.88/30.30%), followed by radiosondes (14.85/27.42%) and satellite winds (11.03/22.70%), are the most important fractions for both experiments. These results show that the DA system is working to generate the best analyses at the research center and that the deficiencies found in some observations can be adjusted to improve the development of the GSI and the BAM model, since together, the entire database used is evaluated, as well as the forecast model itself, indicating the relationship between the assertiveness of the atmospheric model and the DA system used at the research center. Full article

The Pantanal biome—a tropical wetland area—has been suffering a prolonged drought that started in 2019 and peaked in 2020. This favored the occurrence of natural disasters and led to the 2020 Pantanal fire crisis. The purpose of this work was to map the burned area’s extent during this crisis in the Brazilian portion of the Pantanal biome using Sentinel-2 MSI images. The classification of the burned areas was performed using a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) in the Google Earth Engine platform. Input variables in the algorithm were the percentiles 10, 25, 50, 75, and 90 of monthly (July to December) mosaics of the shade fraction, NDVI, and NBR images derived from Sentinel-2 MSI images. The results showed an overall accuracy of 95.9% and an estimate of 44,998 km² burned in the Brazilian portion of the Pantanal, which resulted in severe ecosystem destruction and biodiversity loss in this biome. The burned area estimated in this work was higher than those estimated by the MCD64A1 (35,837 km²), Fire_cci (36,017 km²), GABAM (14,307 km²), and MapBiomas Fogo (23,372 km²) burned area products, which presented lower accuracies. These differences can be explained by the distinct datasets and methods used to obtain those estimates. The proposed approach based on Sentinel-2 images can potentially refine the burned area’s estimation at a regional scale and, consequently, improve the estimate of trace gases and aerosols associated with biomass burning, where global biomass burning inventories are widely known for having biases at a regional scale. Our study brings to light the necessity of developing approaches that aim to improve data and theory about the impacts of fire in regions critically sensitive to climate change, such as the Pantanal, in order to improve Earth systems models that forecast wetland–atmosphere interactions, and the role of these fires on current and future climate change over these regions. Full article

The land surface is an important component of numerical weather and climate forecast models due to their effect on energy–water balances and fluxes, and it is essential for forecasts on a seasonal scale. The present study aimed to understand the effects of land surface processes on initialization of seasonal forecasts in the austral spring, in particular soil moisture. We built forecasts with the Brazilian global Atmospheric Model hindcast from 2000 to 2010, with a configuration similar to those used in the operational environment. To improve it, we developed a new initial condition of the land surface using the Land Information System over South America and the Global Land Data Assimilation System for the rest of the globe and used it as the input in the forecast model. The results demonstrated that the model is sensitive to changes in soil moisture and that the new high–resolution soil moisture dataset can be used in model initialization, which resulted in an increase in the correlation of precipitation over part of South America. We also noticed an improvement in the representation of surface fluxes and an increase in soil moisture content and specific humidity at medium and low levels of the atmosphere. The analysis of the coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere showed that, for Central Brazil, the states of the continental surface define the surface fluxes. For the Amazon and La Plata Basins, the model did not correctly represent the coupling because it underestimated the soil moisture content. Full article

The strategy for assessing simulations produced by climate models established as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) delivers an outline for model analysis, verification/validation, and intercomparison. Numerical models are continuously being developed to find the best representation for the amount and distribution of precipitation in Brazil to improve the country’s precipitation forecast. This article describes the key features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM) (developed by the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies of the National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE)) and analyses of its performance for annual rainfall climate simulations. This study considered the representation of the annual precipitation in Brazil mainly during the rainy season in the central part of Brazil by the BAM. The model was run over the 1990 to 2015 period using spectral Eulerian model dynamics with a 70-horizontal resolution of approximately 1.0${}^{\circ }$× 1.0${}^{\circ }$ and 42 vertical sigma levels. The analysis was divided into two stages: the annual precipitation and the rainy season precipitation. Model precipitation analyses were performed using statistical methods, such as the mean and standard deviation, comparing modeled data with observed data from two datasets, data from the XAV (observed data from INMET, ANA, and DAEE), and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). In general, the BAM model simulations reasonably replicated the configuration of the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Brazilian territory almost entirely, especially compared with the XAV. The accumulated precipitation in the southern region presented great variation, accumulating from 750 mm year${}^{-1}$ in the extreme south to 1750 mm year${}^{-1}$ in the north of this region. Average values of the BAM accumulated precipitation ranged from 1000 to 2000 mm year${}^{-1}$, within the expected average, compared to observed values of 750–1500 mm year${}^{-1}$ (CPC and XAV, correspondingly). Although there was an underestimation of the accumulated precipitation by the model, the model reasonably reproduced the precipitation during the rainy season. The performed assessment identified model aspects that need to be improved. Full article

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), in its version 2.2.1, in the representation of the surface variables solar radiation, temperature (maximum, minimum, and average), and wind speed. Three experiments were carried out for the period from 2016 to 2022 under three different aerosol conditions (constant (CTE), climatological (CLIM), and equal to zero (ZERO)), discarding the first year as a spin-up period. The observations came from a high-resolution gridded analysis that provides Brazil with robust data based on observations from surface stations on a daily scale from 1961 to 2020; therefore, combining the BAM outputs with the observations, our intercomparison period took place from 2017 to 2020, for three timescales: daily, 10-day average, and monthly, targeting different applications. In its different simulations, BAM overestimated solar radiation throughout Brazil, especially in the Amazon; underestimated temperature in most of the northeast, southeast, and south regions; and overestimated in parts of the north and mid-west; while wind speed was only not overestimated in the Amazon region. In relative terms, the simulations with constant aerosol showed better performance than the others, followed by climatological conditions and zero aerosol. The dexterity indices applied in the intercomparison between BAM and observations indicate that BAM needs adjustments and calibration to better represent these surface variables. Where model deficiencies have been identified, these can be used to drive model development and further improve the predictive capabilities. Full article

In this work, we report the ongoing implementation of online-coupled aerosol–cloud microphysical–radiation interactions in the Brazilian global atmospheric model (BAM) and evaluate the initial results, using remote-sensing data for JFM 2014 and JAS 2019. Rather than developing a new aerosol model, which incurs significant overheads in terms of fundamental research and workforce, a simplified aerosol module from a preexisting global aerosol–chemistry–climate model is adopted. The aerosol module is based on a modal representation and comprises a suite of aerosol microphysical processes. Mass and number mixing ratios, along with dry and wet radii, are predicted for black carbon, particulate organic matter, secondary organic aerosols, sulfate, dust, and sea salt aerosols. The module is extended further to include physically based parameterization for aerosol activation, vertical mixing, ice nucleation, and radiative optical properties computations. The simulated spatial patterns of surface mass and number concentrations are similar to those of other studies. The global means of simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing are comparable with observations with normalized mean biases ≤11% and ≤30%, respectively. Large positive bias in BAM control simulation is enhanced with the inclusion of aerosols, resulting in strong overprediction of cloud optical properties. Simulated aerosol optical depths over biomass burning regions are moderately comparable. A case study simulating an intense biomass burning episode in the Amazon is able to reproduce the transport of smoke plumes towards the southeast, thus showing a potential for improved forecasts subject to using near-real-time remote-sensing fire products and a fire emission model. Here, we rely completely on remote-sensing data for the present evaluation and restrain from comparing our results with previous results until a complete representation of the aerosol lifecycle is implemented. A further step is to incorporate dry deposition, in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging, sedimentation, the sulfur cycle, and the treatment of fires. Full article

The terrestrial ecosystem plays a vital role in regulating the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere. This study investigates how terrestrial vegetation coverage and carbon fluxes change in a world stabilizing at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial level. Model results derived from 20 Earth System Models (ESMs) under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios from CMIP5 and CMIP6 are employed to supply the projected results. Although the ESMs show a large spread of uncertainties, the ensemble means of global LAI are projected to increase by 0.04 ± 0.02 and 0.08 ± 0.04 in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming worlds, respectively. Vegetation density is projected to decrease only in the Brazilian Highlands due to the decrease of precipitation there. The high latitudes in Eurasia are projected to have stronger increase of LAI in the 2.0 °C warming world compared to that in 1.5 °C warming level caused by the increase of tree coverage. The largest zonal LAI is projected around 70° N while the largest zonal NPP is projected around 60° N and equator. The zonally inhomogeneous increase of vegetation density and productivity relates to the zonally inhomogeneous increase of temperature, which in turn could amplify the latitudinal gradient of temperature with additional warming. Most of the ESMs show uniform increases of global averaged NPP by 10.68 ± 8.60 and 15.42 ± 10.90 PgC year⁻¹ under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, respectively, except in some sparse vegetation areas. The ensemble averaged NEE is projected to increase by 3.80 ± 7.72 and 4.83 ± 10.13 PgC year⁻¹ in the two warming worlds. The terrestrial ecosystem over most of the world could be a stronger carbon sink than at present. However, some dry areas in Amazon and Central Africa may convert to carbon sources in a world with additional 0.5 °C warming. The start of the growing season in the northern high latitudes is projected to advance by less than one month earlier. Five out of 10 CMIP6 ESMs, which use the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) dataset or a prescribed potential vegetation distribution to constrain the future change of vegetation types, do not reduce the model uncertainties in projected LAI and terrestrial carbon fluxes. This may suggest the challenge in optimizing the carbon fluxes modeling in the future. Full article

The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions. Full article

The Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) technique allows valuable information to be obtained about the state of the atmosphere through vertical profiles obtained at various processing levels. From the point of view of data assimilation, there is a consensus that less processed data are preferable because of their lowest addition of uncertainties in the process. In the GPSRO context, bending angle data are better to assimilate than refractivity or atmospheric profiles; however, these data have not been properly explored by data assimilation at the CPTEC (acronym in Portuguese for Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies). In this study, the benefits and possible deficiencies of the CPTEC modeling system for this data source are investigated. Three numerical experiments were conducted, assimilating bending angles and refractivity profiles in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system coupled with the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM). The results highlighted the need for further studies to explore the representation of meteorological systems at the higher levels of the BAM model. Nevertheless, more benefits were achieved using bending angle data compared with the results obtained assimilating refractivity profiles. The highest gain was in the data usage exploring 73.4% of the potential of the RO technique when bending angles are assimilated. Additionally, gains of 3.5% and 2.5% were found in the root mean square error values in the zonal and meridional wind components and geopotencial height at 250 hPa, respectively. Full article

The present paper aims to evaluate the past and future environmental performance of the electricity generation in Brazil in terms of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP). To that end, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tool was used to evaluate the system’s environmental performance, based on ISO 14040 and ISO 14044, using the Ecoinvent v 3.3 database. This study provides data on global warming by the GWP and GTP 100 years impact category. The functional unit and reference flow is kWh. The model was applied to the electricity generation in Brazil for the years 2016–2026 using Umberto NXT Universal software. The results indicate that the greatest environmental impacts lie on generation sources such as oil, natural gas, hydropower and hard coal. Carbon dioxide was the main contributor to atmospheric emissions in the life cycle of the Brazilian electricity matrix in 2016 and 2026. The total potential impact (and per kWh) is expected to decrease until 2021. The Brazilian electricity matrix is expected to be less pollutant in terms of carbon footprint until 2021. The study can contribute to directing public policies, promoting development actions and encouraging different electricity matrices. Full article

Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor associated with the deficient methodologies used in its quantification and the imperfect physics parameterizations incorporated in the models, there are significant uncertainties in characterizing the moisture field. The process responsible for incorporating the information provided by observation into the numerical weather prediction is denominated data assimilation. The best result in atmospheric moisture depend on the correct choice of the moisture control variable. Normalized relative humidity and pseudo-relative humidity are the variables usually used by the main weather prediction centers. The objective of this study is to assess the sensibility of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies to choose moisture control variable in the data assimilation scheme. Experiments using these variables are carried out. The results show that the pseudo-relative humidity improves the variables that depend on temperature values but damage the moisture field. The opposite results show when the simulation used the normalized relative humidity. These experiments suggest that the pseudo-relative humidity should be used in the cyclical process of data assimilation and the normalized relative humidity should be used in non-cyclic process (e.g., nowcasting application in high resolution). Full article

Changes in tropical-forest structure and aboveground biomass (AGB) contribute directly to atmospheric changes in CO${}_2$ , which, in turn, bear on global climate. This paper demonstrates the capability of radar-interferometric phase-height time series at X-band (wavelength = 3 cm) to monitor changes in vertical structure and AGB, with sub-hectare and monthly spatial and temporal resolution, respectively. The phase-height observation is described, with a focus on how it is related to vegetation-density, radar-power vertical profiles, and mean canopy heights, which are, in turn, related to AGB. The study site covers $18\times 60$ km in the Tapajós National Forest in the Brazilian Amazon. Phase-heights over Tapajós were measured by DLR’s TanDEM-X radar interferometer 32 times in a 3.2 year period from 2011–2014. Fieldwork was done on 78 secondary and primary forest plots. In the absence of disturbance, rates of change of phase-height for the 78 plots were estimated by fitting the phase-heights to time with a linear model. Phase-height time series for the disturbed plots were fit to the logistic function to track jumps in phase-height. The epochs of clearing for the disturbed plots were identified with ≈1-month accuracy. The size of the phase-height change due to disturbance was estimated with ≈2-m accuracy. The monthly time resolution will facilitate REDD+ monitoring. Phase-height rates of change were shown to correlate with LiDAR RH90 height rates taken over a subset of the TanDEM-X data’s time span (2012–2013). The average rate of change of phase-height across all 78 plots was 0.5 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ with a standard deviation of 0.6 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ . For 42 secondary forest plots, the average rate of change of phase-height was 0.8 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ with a standard deviation of 0.6 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ . For 36 primary forest plots, the average phase-height rate was 0.1 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ with a standard deviation of 0.5 m-yr ${}^{-1}$ . A method for converting phase-height rates to AGB-rates of change was developed using previously measured phase-heights and field-estimated AGB. For all 78 plots, the average AGB-rate was 1.7 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ with a standard deviation of 4.0 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ . The secondary-plot average AGB-rate was 2.1 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ , with a standard deviation of 2.4 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ . For primary plots, the AGB average rate was 1.1 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ with a standard deviation of 5.2 Mg-ha ${}^{-1}$ -yr ${}^{-1}$ . Given the standard deviations and the number of plots in each category, rates in secondary forests and all forests were significantly different from zero; rates in primary forests were consistent with zero. AGB-rates were compared to change models for Tapajós and to LiDAR-based change measurements in other tropical forests. Strategies for improving AGB dynamical monitoring with X-band interferometry are discussed. Full article

Fires are complex processes having important impacts on biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The spatial and temporal pattern of fire activity is determined by complex feedbacks between climate and plant functioning through and biomass desiccation, usually estimated by fire danger indices (FDI) in official fire risk prevention services. Contrasted vegetation types from fire-prone Brazilian biomes may respond differently to soil water deficit during the fire season. Then, we propose to evaluate the burned area (BA)/FDI relationship across Brazil using most common FDIs and the main BA products from global remote sensing. We computed 12 standard FDIs- at 0.5° resolution from 2002 to 2011 and used the monthly BA from four BA datasets—from the MODIS sensor (MCD45A1), the MERIS sensor (MERIS FIRE_CCI), the Global Fire Emission Database version 4 (GFED4) and version 4s including small fires (GFED4s). We performed a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the coefficients of determination (R²) of the FDI/BA relationship to investigate the biome specificities of Brazilian biomes and the sensitivity to BA datasets. Good relationships (R² > 0.8) were observed for all BA datasets, except SPEI (R² < 0.2). We showed that FDIs computed from empirical water balances considering a lower soil capacity are more correlated to the seasonal pattern of fire occurrence in the Cerrado biome with contrasted adjustments between the western (early drying) and eastern part (late drying), while the fine fuel moisture index is more correlated to the fire seasonal pattern in Amazonia. The biome specificities of the FDI/BA relationship was evaluated with a general linear model. High accuracies in the biome distribution according to the FDI/BA relationship (>50%, p < 0.001) was observed in Amazonia and Cerrado, with lower accuracy (<32%, p < 0.001) in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga. These results suggest that the FDI/BA relationship are biome-specific to explain the seasonal course of burned in Brazilian biomes, independently of the global BA product used. Selected FDIs should be used for fire danger forecast in each Brazilian biome. Full article