Search Results (33)

Tropical cyclone-induced waves (TCWs) are projected to intensify under global warming, with recent evidence suggesting that their growth outpaces the increase in surface winds. Yet, how TCWs differ between coastal and open-ocean environments remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate TCW characteristics during two climatic periods (1979–2000 and 2001–2023) using a coupled analysis of buoy observations and ERA5 reanalysis. Our results reveal a striking contrast: while open-ocean TCWs exhibited a pronounced intensification of up to 19% (~74 cm) over the past four decades, coastal TCWs show only a muted increase of 26 cm (~8%). This discrepancy is primarily linked to weaker wind forcing and a contraction of effective fetch in coastal regions. On a broader scale, global wave heights (GWs) demonstrate strong temporal and regional variability. The 1979–2000 period featured widespread increases exceeding 10 cm per decade, whereas 2001–2023 displayed pronounced regional disparities, with declines in the Pacific and Indian Oceans but increases in the North Atlantic, Southern Ocean, and Arctic. Notably, the Arctic exhibits a significant rise in extreme wave heights, consistent with reduced ice cover and enhanced wind-driven fetch, highlighting critical feedback to global warming. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing coastal from open-ocean wave responses when assessing future hazards. By revealing the divergent trajectories of TCWs and GWs under climate change, our study provides a refined framework for understanding storm-induced risks and for improving projections of wave-driven coastal impacts. Full article

Polar mesocyclones are often the cause of sudden worsening of weather conditions, including strong winds, snowfall with low visibility, and storms. The short lifetime, rapid development, high movement speeds, and small sizes, combined with a lack of meteorological observations over the Arctic seas, create difficulties in forecasting associated weather phenomena. High-resolution numerical modeling can help address this issue. The emergence and development of polar lows (PLs) significantly depend on the properties of the underlying surface, which largely determine the dynamic properties of the atmosphere in the boundary layer. This article is dedicated to assessing the sensitivity of the configuration ICON-Ru of the model ICON with a 2.0 km grid spacing to changes in the sea ice boundary and sea surface temperature (SST) when forecasting the formation and development of PLs. The results showed that the presence of artificial ice in the model almost completely suppresses the development of PLs in cases where the vortex does not have a strong connection with the jet stream. Heating the SST to 278.15 K while simultaneously shifting the ice boundary northward leads to increased thermal instability, rising sensible and latent heat fluxes, and higher CAPE, which enhances PLs, with the degree of enhancement depending on the nature of the vortex formation itself. Full article

Changing precipitation patterns in the Arctic is a key indicator of climate change, in addition to increasing land and ocean temperatures, but these patterns are not uniform across the circumpolar region. This regional analysis focuses on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in southwestern Alaska and addresses the following questions: (1) What is the baseline hydroclimatology during the growing season on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta? (2) What are the seasonal and intraseasonal trends of the hydroclimate variables in the YKD? (3) What are the implications of documented trends for the study region? Utilizing ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis dataset, we conducted a seasonal analysis for May through September for the years 1982–2022. While no strong trend emerged for total precipitation over the 41-year study period, differing trends were observed for large-scale and convective precipitation. The decline in large-scale precipitation is supported by a decrease in storm counts in the Bering Sea, as well as declining vertically integrated moisture convergence and moisture flux. By contrast, the increase in convective precipitation underscores the growing importance of the local hydrologic cycle, further supported by a significant rise in evaporation. These enhanced local hydroclimatological cycles have significant implications for wildfires and subsistence activities. Full article

The present study is devoted to the analysis of extreme sea level oscillations of the Laptev Sea using the ADCIRC model. The numerical modeling is performed on a high-resolution grid and verified for sea level observations from three tide gauges. We have revealed regional characteristics of extreme sea level oscillations for different parts of the Laptev Sea coast. The maximum total sea level range was 544 cm in Ebelyakh Bay, while the minimum was 267 cm in Khatanga Bay, where maximum tidal ranges were obtained. Some areas in Khatanga Bay and Anabar Bay had maximum tidal ranges exceeding 200 cm. The study provided an estimation of the possible magnitude of coastal flooding by calculating the extreme total and residual sea levels for different return periods: 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years. The amplitude of extreme surges calculated for the 100-year return period can exceed 300 cm for several sections of the Laptev Sea coast, with the maximum sea level range being about 680 cm for Anabar and Ebelyakh Bays. Full article

Recent increases in extreme events, especially those near and beyond previous records, are a new index for Arctic and global climate change. They vary by type, location, and season. These record-shattering events often have no known historical analogues and suggest that other climate surprises are in store. Twenty-six unprecedented events from 2022, 2023, and early 2024 include record summer temperatures/heatwaves, storms, major Canadian wildfires, early continental snow melt, Greenland melt, sea temperatures of 5–7 °C above normal, drought in Iceland, and low northern Alaskan salmon runs. Collectively, such diverse extremes form a consilience, the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources converge as a strong indicator of ongoing Arctic change. These new behaviors represent emergent phenomenon. Emergence occurs when multiple processes interact to produce new properties, such as the interaction of Arctic amplification with the normal range of major weather events. Examples are typhon Merbok that resulted in extensive coastal erosion in the Bering Sea, Greenland melt, and record temperatures and melt in Svalbard. The Arctic can now be considered to be in a different state to before fifteen years ago. Communities must adapt for such intermittent events to avoid worst-case scenarios. Full article

This study assesses the variability of coastal extreme sea levels globally by utilizing nearly three decades of along-track, multi-mission satellite altimetry data. An altimetry-based global coastal database of the non-tidal residual sea level component has been produced. The climate variability of extremes is modeled through a parametric, non-stationary statistical model. This model captures intra-annual, inter-annual and long-term variations in non-tidal residual return levels. Comparisons with tide gauge data demonstrate the ability of altimetry data to capture the variability of coastal extreme sea levels. Our findings reveal a greater complexity in the monthly variability patterns of non-tidal residual extremes in tropical latitudes, often exhibiting multiple storm periods, contrasting with coasts in extratropical latitudes, which are mostly controlled by a winter–summer pattern. This study also highlights the significant influence of established climate circulation patterns on sea level extremes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation pattern leads to increases of over 25% in non-tidal residual return levels in Northwestern Europe with respect to a neutral phase. Furthermore, return levels in the western coast of Central America could be 50% higher during El Niño compared to La Niña. Our results show a robust increasing trend in non-tidal residual return levels along most global coastlines. A comparative analysis shows that variations during the 1995–2020 period were primarily driven by intra-annual variations. Full article

Global warming results in increasingly widespread wildfires, mostly in Siberia, but also in North America and Europe, which are responsible for the uncontrollable emission of pollutants, also to the High Arctic region. This study examines 11 samples of rainfall collected in August in a coastal area of southern Bellsund (Svalbard, Norway). It covers detailed analysis of major ions (i.e., Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, and SO₄²⁻) and elements (i.e., Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) to Hybrid Single-Particle Langrarian Integrated Trajectory( HYSPLIT) backward air mass trajectories. The research of wildfires, volcanic activities, and dust storms in the Northern Hemisphere has permitted the assessment of their relations to the fluctuations and origins of elements. We distinguished at least 2 days (27 and 28 August) with evident influence of volcanic activity in the Aleutian and Kuril–Kamchatka trenches. Volcanic activity was also observed in the case of the Siberian wildfires, as confirmed by air mass trajectories. Based on the presence of non-sea K (nsK), non-sea sulphates (nss), and Ca (the soil factor of burned areas), the continuous influence of wildfires on rainfall chemistry was also found. Moreover, dust storms in Eurasia were mainly responsible for the transport of Zn, Pb, and Cd to Svalbard. Global warming may lead to the increased deposition of mixed-origin pollutants in the summer season in the Arctic. Full article

The shape of the coast and the processes that mold it change together as a complex system. There is constant feedback among the multiple components of the system, and when climate changes, all facets of the system change. Abrupt shifts to different states can also take place when certain tipping points are crossed. The coupling of rapid warming in the Arctic with melting sea ice is one example of positive feedback. Climate changes, particularly rising sea temperatures, are causing an increasing frequency of tropical storms and “compound events” such as storm surges combined with torrential rains. These events are superimposed on progressive rises in relative sea level and are anticipated to push many coastal morphodynamic systems to tipping points beyond which return to preexisting conditions is unlikely. Complex systems modeling results and long-term sets of observations from diverse cases help to anticipate future coastal threats. Innovative engineering solutions are needed to adapt to changes in coastal landscapes and environmental risks. New understandings of cascading climate-change-related physical, ecological, socioeconomic effects, and multi-faceted morphodynamic systems are continually contributing to the imperative search for resilience. Recent contributions, summarized here, are based on theory, observations, numerically modeled results, regional case studies, and global projections. Full article

New environmental extremes are currently underway and are much greater than those in previous records. These are mostly regional, singular events that are caused by global change/local weather combinations and are larger than the impact of linear temperature increases projected using climate models. These new states cannot easily be assigned probabilities because they often have no historical analogs. Thus, the term super climate extremes is used. Examples are the loss of sea ice and ecosystem reorganization in northern marine Alaska, heatwave extreme in western Canada, and the loss of snow in Greenland. New combined extreme occurrences, which are reported almost daily, lead to a new, higher level of climate change urgency. The loss of sea ice in 2018–2019 was a result of warmer Arctic temperatures and changes in the jet stream. They resulted in a chain of impacts from southerly winds, the northward movement of predatory fish, and the reduction of food security for coastal communities. Record temperatures were measured in southwestern British Columbia following previous drought conditions, a confluence of two storm tracks, and warming through atmospheric subsidence. Greenland’s losses had clear skies and jet stream events. Such new extremes are present indicators of climate change. Their impacts result from the interaction between physical and ecological processes, and they justify the creation of a new climate change category based on super climate extremes. Full article

Winter storms occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) every few years, but there are not many studies on oceanic responses to severe winter storms. Although usually considered less destructive than hurricanes, they can result in cumulative damages. Winter Storm Outbreak of February 2021 (WSO21), the most intense winter storm to impact Texas and the GoM in 30 years, passed over the western GoM and brought severe cold to the GoM coastal regions, which caused a sudden cooling of the ocean surface, resulting in an extensive loss of marine life. In this study, we analyze multiple datasets from both in situ and satellite observations to examine the oceanic changes due to WSO21 in order to improve our understanding of oceanic responses to winter storms. Although the pre-storm sea surface temperature (SST) was 1–2 °C warmer than normal, severe coastal cold spells caused a significant cooling of the order of −3 °C to −5 °C during WSO21 and a −1 °C average cooling in the mixed layer (ML) over the western GoM. Net surface heat loss played a primary role in the upper ocean cooling during WSO21 and explained more than 50% of the cooling that occurred. Convective mixing due to surface cooling and turbulent mixing induced by enhanced wind speeds significantly increase the surface ML in the western GoM. Apart from rapid changes in SST and heat fluxes due to air-sea interactions, persistent upwelling brings nutrients to the surface and can produce coastal “winter” blooms along the Texas and Mexico coast. Prominent salinity increases along the coastal regions during and after WSO21 were another indicator of wind-induced coastal upwelling. Our study demonstrates the utility of publicly-available datasets for studying the impact of winter storms on the ocean surface. Full article

Extreme weather events such as storms, heavy snow accumulation, rapid snowmelt, and heavy rain have been closely related to slope instability in arctic and subarctic regions. In this paper, we investigate the historical activity of slope processes such as snow avalanches and debris flows in Þistilfjörður, northeastern Iceland, and examine their possible role in the occupation and abandonment of three archaeological sites located on slopes of Mt. Flautafell. The study combines geomorphological and stratigraphical surveys with historical records, notably Jarðabók Árna Magnússonar og Páls Vídalíns and Sýslu og sóknarlýsingar Bókmenntafélagsins Svalbarðssókn. Geomorphological surveys show numerous features that are indicative of active slope movement processes in and around the investigated sites. Our results suggest that the slopes experienced periods of instability during the occupation of these sites. The burial or destruction of some parts of the homefield at the Flautafell farm reveals slope activity, which may also be related, at least indirectly, to the abandonment of the farm at Norður Hús sometime before A.D. 1300. Nearby auxiliary farm installations of Stekkur remained untouched by slope processes even though they are situated in a vulnerable area. Further study and dating of slope processes and farm occupation could allow them to be used as proxies for deteriorating environmental conditions affecting the region. Full article

Accurate soil heat transfer models are needed to predict and adapt to a warming arctic. A numerical model to accurately predict temperatures and thaw depths in soils, both with depth and with horizontal distance from features such as cliffs, was developed in Matlab using the finite element method. The model was validated against analytical solutions to simple versions of the problem and experimental temperature data from borehole thermistor strings on the north shore of Alaska. The current model is most useful for short term (on the order of days) predictions of thaw depth and near surface temperatures in homogeneous soils with existing data to allow the calibration of soil thermal parameters. These are exactly the time scales and capabilities that would integrate well with erosional models to predict the erosion during storm events and summer thaw conditions. Comparisons with analytical solutions show the model to be fairly accurate in predictions of temperatures thaw-depth and temperatures, within about 0.25 °C and 0.02 m respectively, for reasonable arctic soil parameters. Differences between predicted temperatures and thaw-depth against borehole data from Barter Island, Alaska are within about 1 °C and 0.5 m respectively. Comparison to commercial software, which does not directly track and move the phase change boundary, shows that this moving-mesh model has much better agreement. The model developed in this work is flexible and can be modified to model a wide variety of problems, but is efficiently set up to take a surface and thaw-boundary profile (not necessarily horizontal) and use soil parameters and surface boundary conditions appropriate to Arctic regions. It has been verified to appropriately model cliffs, which are particularly vulnerable to erosion. Full article

Recent years have seen an increase in the use of remote-sensing based methods to assess soil erosion, mainly due to the availability of freely accessible satellite data, with successful results on a consistent basis. There would be valuable benefits from applying these techniques to the Arctic areas, where ground local studies are typically difficult to perform due to hardly accessible roads and lands. At the same time, however, the application of remote-sensing methods comes with its own set of challenges when it comes to the peculiar features of the Arctic: short growing periods, winter storms, wind, and frequent cloud and snow cover. In this study we perform a comparative analysis of three commonly used classification algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), in combination with ground truth samples from regions all over Iceland, provided by Iceland’s Soil Conservation Service department. The process can be automated to predict soil erosion risk for larger, less accessible areas from Sentinel-2 images. The analysis performed on validation data sets supports the effectiveness of both approaches for modeling soil erosion, albeit differences are highlighted. Full article

Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale weather systems that often cause severe storm winds in the Nordic Seas but were considered as being exceedingly rare in the Pacific Arctic region before sea ice decline. Here, we explore four PLs observed on 18–22 October 2017 in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas—an area with an exceptionally sparse observation network. The study is based on the combined use of the satellite microwave measurements, as well as infrared imagery, the ERA5, MERRA-2 and NCEP-CFSv2 reanalysis data sets. An unusually strong PLs pair developed near the marginal ice zone during a marine-cold air outbreak in anomalously low sea ice extent conditions. PLs pair moved southward as a mesocyclonic system called the “merry-go-round”, under the upper-level tropospheric vortex with a cold core. Multi-sensor satellite measurements show that, in the mature stage, a PL pair had near-surface wind speeds (W) close to hurricane force—over 30 m/s. Comparison analysis of W distributions within the strongest PL showed that all reanalysis data sets reasonably reproduce the PL median wind speed but underestimate its extreme values by 15–23%. The reanalysis data sets detected only two PLs with horizontal scales of over 220 km. Tracks of identified PLs for all data sets are in good agreement with the ones obtained from satellite images capturing the main features of the mesoscale weather system propagation. For the track of the strongest PL event, ERA5 exhibited the most accordance with satellite observations with a tracking error of 50–60 km. Full article

Small Arctic coastal catchments and coastal lagoon systems are some of the most vulnerable to climate change. Glacial retreat and the development of glacial lakes and drainage systems provide opportunities for hazardous events such as GLOFs. We observe that the stability of lagoons and their associated barriers are controlled by the frequency and magnitude of storms approaching the coasts, access to sediment supplies and resilience to sea-level rise. Based on multidecadal remote sensing data, we were able to identify the rate of glacial recession, the development of glacial lakes, vegetation response to climate change and a GLOF event, and shoreline and lagoon responses to the environmental shifts within the small catchment. Here we present an example of lagoon system evolution where a glacial outburst flood exerted significant control over lagoon drainage and coastal barrier stability. Full article