Abstract
In 1918 many countries, but not Spain, were fighting World War I. Spanish press could report about the diffusion and severity of a new infection without censorship for the first-time, so that this pandemic is commonly defined as “Spanish flu”, even though Spain was not its place of origin. “Spanish flu” was one of the deadliest pandemics in history and has been frequently compared with the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. These pandemics share similarities, being both caused by highly variable and transmissible respiratory RNA viruses, and diversity, represented by diagnostics, therapies, and especially vaccines, which were made rapidly available for COVID-19, but not for “Spanish flu”. Most comparison studies have been carried out in the first period of COVID-19, when these resources were either not yet available or their use had not long started. Conversely, we wanted to analyze the role that the advanced diagnostics, anti-viral agents, including monoclonal antibodies, and innovative COVID-19 vaccines, may have had in the pandemic containment. Early diagnosis, therapies, and anti-COVID-19 vaccines have markedly reduced the pandemic severity and mortality, thus preventing the collapse of the public health services. However, their influence on the reduction of infections and re-infections, thus on the transition from pandemic to endemic condition, appears to be of minor relevance. The high viral variability of influenza and coronavirus may probably be contained by the development of universal vaccines, which are not easy to be obtained. The only effective weapon still remains the disease prevention, to be achieved with the reduction of promiscuity between the animal reservoirs of these zoonotic diseases and humans.
1. Introduction
Since the first description of the new coronavirus severe pneumonia in December 2019 and the subsequent declaration of pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020, different papers compared the 1918 “Spanish flu” and the 2019 COronaVIrus Disease (COVID-19) pandemics, in order to infer a possible prediction of any epidemiological and clinical trends of COVID-19 [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. These studies have been developed in the early phase of the new pandemic, before the description of new characteristics and complications of COVID-19. This study aims, therefore, to deepen this comparison and speculate on the role that innovations after one century of scientific and medical progress might have had in the pandemic evolution.
2. The Viruses
Two different single-stranded (ss)-RNA viruses caused the “Spanish flu” and COVID-19 pandemics: influenza virus, that pertain to the family Orthomyxoviridae [10], and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV)-2, classified in the family of Coronaviridae [9], respectively.
Four types of influenza virus are described, A, that may be responsible for epidemics and pandemics, B and C, which may be pathogen for humans, and D [11]. Coronaviruses include α, ß, γ, and δ genera, but only α, ß may infect humans.
Influenza is a negative-sense, single stranded (ss)-RNA virus and its genome is segmented (eight different gene segments in types A and B, seven in types C and D). Two of these segments in the type A code for either 18 different hemagglutinins (HA or H) and 11 different neuraminidases (NA or N); the two glycoproteins needed for attachment to and detachment from the host cells, respectively [11,12]. The natural reservoir for influenza virus is represented by the waterfowl birds (excepting HA17NA10 and HA18NA11, which have only been observed in Peruvian bats); however, even mammals, including humans and swine, may be infected [13]. Among the theoretical 198 possible subtypes, 120 have been found in nature, and only three, namely H1N1, H2N2 and H3N2, have been observed in humans in three different pandemics, thus demonstrating a stable adaptation to humans [12]. The virus enters the host cell via a cellular surface receptor of sialic acid (Sia), with a link to galactose, which is α(2,3) in avian-type and α(2,6) in human-type. In humans, the Sia α(2,6) is located in the upper airways, whereas Sia α(2,3) is present in the lower airways; a possible adaptation of an avian influenza A virus to humans, therefore, may maintain its capacity to infect the cells of the lower airways, inducing a very severe pneumonia with possible acute respiratory distress and high case-fatality rate.
Conversely, coronaviruses are positive-sense ss-RNA viruses with a compact, unsegmented genome, which enter the host cells mostly via the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)2 receptor that is bound by the Spike protein (SP), which is a characteristic molecule of coronaviruses, through its receptor binding domain (RBD) located in the S1 tract. ACE2 receptors are expressed on cells of many organs, including the respiratory tract, at the level of both higher and lower airways [14]. Recently, it has been suggested that coronaviruses may also bind Sia receptors, similarly to influenza viruses [15]. COVID-19 is a zoonosis, but the animal reservoir has not yet been precisely identified, even if the major suspects are bats [16]. Coronaviruses may be responsible for the common cold, such as the α-coronaviruses 299E and NL63, and the ß-coronaviruses HKU1, OC43, but may be involved in severe pneumonias and high mortality rate, as in the case of the ß-coronaviruses Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, with only the last one that was able to induce a pandemic [17].
Although structurally and genetically different, SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus share similar characteristics. Both viruses show high a capability to generate variants, which may be antigenically and biologically different from the viral strain originally appeared, as in the case of SARS-CoV-2, or from the viral strains circulating in previous years, as in the case of influenza virus. This characteristic makes them able to infect a higher number of individuals, and potentially cause pandemics, in comparison to viruses with a more stable genome. In fact, antigenic variability makes the specific immunologic memory less or not at all efficient, also rendering susceptible to infection those individuals that had previously been infected with the same virus. The rate of variability is quite high for both viruses, as in general for RNA viruses, whose RNA polymerase has a very low capacity to check for possible replication mistakes than the DNA polymerase, which is present in DNA viruses, that are, therefore, more stable. The genome mutation rate for human influenza A virus has been calculated as 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site/year [18], whereas in SARS-CoV-2 it has been calculated as 1.12 × 10−3 mutations/site/year [19]. Although the RNA polymerase of all coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, has proofreading exonuclease activity [20], this does not seem to markedly reduce the viral variability, considering that the genome mutation rate appears similar to that of influenza A virus. Variants generated by the influenza virus are principally a consequence of intracellular viral genetic reassortment, whereas variants of coronaviruses are nearly exclusively a consequence of recombination, with the additional possibility of point mutations in both [21]. The “antigenic shift” or reassortment variations in influenza A, may be more or less marked, involving all or some gene segments. It is a deep viral genetic modification associated with pandemics occurring with a variable periodicity. Recombination and reassortment are generated by genetic material exchange in cells infected by different viruses. In the subtype H1N1 “Spanish” pandemic, all gene segments were completely new, whereas in the subtype H2N2 Asian pandemic in 1957 and in the subtype H3N2 Hong Kong pandemic in 1968, only three and two new gene segments were involved, respectively [22]. Finally, in 2009, the A(H1N1)pdm09 flu pandemic was caused by a swine virus coming from the reassortment of six gene segments from a triple reassortant swine virus (in which five gene segments of a North American swine origin virus reassorted with gene segments from avian and human origin) and two gene segments coming from the A(H1N1) Eurasian swine virus lineage [23]. This is a clear example of the complexity of intra- and inter-species reassortment of influenza A virus. The emergence of the new subtypes in the pandemics is generally accompanied by the disappearance of the previous subtype [23]. H1N1 disappeared from humans in 1957, when it was replaced by the H2N2 Asian pandemic, which was in turn replaced by H3N2 in 1968 during the Hong Kong pandemic. However, H1N1 suddenly re-emerged in 1977, probably in consequence of accidental release from a laboratory source, causing the Russian flu pandemic in 1977, and since then is co-circulating with H3N2 [23]. The “antigenic drifts” are variations caused by limited mutations of antigenic determinants that occur frequently, almost yearly, and are associated to seasonal epidemics, but generally not to pandemics, since the viral antigens are not completely changed, and the immunologic memory makes a large part of the population less susceptible to infection. The current circulating influenza A virus subtypes in humans are H1N1 and H3N2, but some avian flu viruses, such as A(H5N1), A(H7N7), A(H7N9), and A(H9N2) have been observed in limited outbreaks, thus allowing to infer that no adaptation to humans has still been achieved by them [https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic), accessed on 10 April 2023].
Coronaviruses present a quite frequent recombination rate [21] and, in fact, many variations in SARS-CoV-2 genome were observed and the most potentially dangerous are defined as variants of concern (VOCs). The VOCs observed up to now are Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529), which is still largely present with several subvariants [24], whereas the previous VOCs have virtually disappeared (Table 1).
Table 1.
Biological characteristics of influenza viruses and coronaviruses.
The zoonotic origin of the viruses responsible for the two pandemics is unknown, but the genomic variability is certainly involved in their biologic success as pathogens. For Spanish flu, an avian strain of influenza virus adapted to mammals, human or swine, may only be hypothesized, since no data exist on previous circulation of the viral strain, making any attempt to reconstruct the viral origin impossible [25]. Various hypotheses on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 have been proposed, but no definitive answer is still available [16,26].
The capacity of the two viruses to cause severe diseases is similar, but with different immunopathogenic mechanisms. In fact, in the large majority of patients with “Spanish flu”, the viral infection favored the development of a bacterial disease that nearly constantly ended with death in that pre-antibiotic era, while an isolated viral pneumonia was more rarely observed [27]. In COVID-19, instead, a virus-induced hyper-activation of the immune system, with consequent cytokine storm and immunopathogenic effect at lung level and in the whole body, with the picture of multi-organ failure, is generally found in severe cases [7].
3. Epidemiology
“Spanish flu” occurred in three epidemic waves, the first in the spring/summer 1918, the second in the fall 1918, and the third in the winter 1918/1919. The first wave widely spread throughout the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world: its morbidity rates were generally high, but the death rate was estimated to be at 0.1% [28], not different from the usual death rates observed among influenza patients in previous years. The second wave burst between September and November 1918, with a death rate significantly higher than that observed in the first wave and estimated at 2–4% [28], because of the higher frequency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases. A third wave occurred in the first months of 1919 in many countries with different patterns: this wave had high illness rates in part of European countries, such as France, Scotland and Finland, lower rates in Sweden, Norway and Holland, while it was almost absent in Spain, Denmark and Italy. Generally, the third wave was less intense in those geographical areas where the second wave was more severe [29], and its mean death rate was 1% [28]. It was hypothesized that a different virus could be responsible for the second wave, but the observation that those who survived the infection in the first wave resulted protected during the second wave seems to limit the probability of this hypothesis [8]. However, it has recently been suggested that a second antigenically undistinguishable virus might have circulated in the second pandemic wave, in addition to the one in the pre-pandemic period [28], that could have evoked cross-protective antibodies. In line with this hypothesis, it has recently been proven that a single amino acid substitution in the sequence of H1 may increase its affinity for the Sia α(2,6) receptor [30], and increase the adaption of a flu avian viral strain to humans. In the analysis of a series of stored lung tissues from US military personnel who died for influenza in the pre-pandemic and pandemic (second wave) 1918 periods, a trend from an “avian-like” to a “human-like” pattern of H1-Sia receptor was observed, in the pre-pandemic and pandemic period, respectively [31]. The “Spanish” definition of this pandemic does not reflect the real geographic origin of the pandemic, which seems rather to be born in a military training camp in the USA, or Europe (France or England) [32]. Although reliable data are not available, it is estimated that “Spanish flu” infected approximately 500 million subjects, one third of the world’s population in 1918, with a mortality of approximately 50 million cases [33]. According to other estimates, real pandemic mortality might have fallen between 50 and 100 million deaths [34]. The reliability of these estimations is limited considering the ignorance of the etiological viral agent, thus the impossibility of confirming diagnosis, and collecting reliable epidemiological data, in a period of general social disruption in consequence of the war. In addition to the war conditions, characterized by overcrowding, poor sanitation and straining of the health services, all favoring the spreading and severity of the infection, even scientific accuracy of data collection could be limited by military and political considerations. Finally, other war-independent variables could influence mortality, with an inverse association between mortality and socio-economic status [35], and a high variability of case-fatality rates according to geographical places, age, sex, and ethnic group [36]. All these considerations also make the estimates of global case-fatality rates less reliable [33]. It is estimated that in 1918, 56,000 American soldiers died for “Spanish flu” in Europe and in the training camps in the USA, versus 53,402 killed in combat [37]. One peculiar characteristic of “Spanish flu” was the epidemiological curve of deaths, being W- instead of U-shaped, as usually observed in the seasonal epidemics and in other flu pandemics. The fact that older adults fared better than younger adults in influenza severity might be due to the presence among older adults of an immunological memory to an H1 influenza A virus that was circulating in 1889, thus causing a lower case-fatality rate among subjects aged 30–60 years than among those aged 18–30 years [38]. In fact, generally the extreme ages of life are particularly burdened by mortality, whereas the middle, productive, age of young adults is spared. Conversely, in the H1N1 “Spanish flu” pandemic, the middle-aged people were not spared and the group of persons < 65-year-old had >99% of flu-related deaths, versus 36% in the H2N2 Asian pandemic of 1957 and 48% in the H3N2 Hong Kong pandemic of 1968 [33].
After more than one century from “Spanish flu”, the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 has carefully and daily been monitored, by the Johns Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Center, up to 10 March 2023, three years from the pandemic declaration; up to this date, the total infected people were 676,609,955 and the total deaths 6,881,955, with a global case-fatality rate of 1.01% (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, accessed on 10 March 2023). Moreover, at the same date and according to the same data source, 13,338,833,193 vaccine doses have been administered to the world population and the number of waves of disease have been six, half of which occurred in 2020–2021 and the other three in 2022, in coincidence with the spreading of Omicron variant. Similar figures have also been monitored by the WHO, which declared end to the pandemic as a public health emergency on 5 May 2023. As of 3 May 2023, 765,222,932 cumulative cases and 6,921,614 deaths worldwide were registered; as of 30 April 2023, 13,344,670,055 vaccine doses have been administered, 5,106,051,703 persons fully vaccinated and 5,548,001,227 persons vaccinated with only one dose have been calculated (https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136367, accessed on 3 June 2023). The highest wave of disease was the first one of 2022, whereas the highest mortality has been observed in the second half of 2020 and in the first half of 2021, before full implementation of the vaccine campaign. These data are in line with what has been observed in several studies, showing that COVID-19 vaccines are scarcely effective in preventing infections and in interrupting virus circulation, while they are very effective in reducing mortality. However, there are many other factors, including naturally acquired immunity and the spreading of milder viral variants, that may contribute to reduce mortality. Unlike “Spanish flu”, COVID-19 generally spares children and young adults, and shows its highest mortality in the >65-year-old people, especially if they are carriers of comorbidities [7].
4. Public Health Containment Measures and Therapeutical Approaches
In both pandemics, although they were spaced apart of over one century, the hygiene measures to try to limit the spreading of the infection were the same: social distancing, protective masks for respiration, isolation and quarantine in case of symptomatic infection. The possible transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 before the onset of symptoms [39] may have reduced the effectiveness of these measures in COVID-19. However, the rapid availability of accurate and quick molecular diagnostic tools may have precisely driven the adoption of the public health measures reported above, thus increasing their effectiveness.
Empirical therapeutical approaches were adopted in both pandemics, including the administration of medicines with unproven efficacy, such as quinine during “Spanish flu” and hydroxychloroquine during the first phase of COVID-19 [40]. Another analogy is the use of passive immunotherapy, which was discovered by Emil von Behring and Shibasaburo Kitasato in 1890 as an anti-toxic treatment of tetanus and diphtheria; during the World War I hyper-immune heterologous serum prophylactic administration resulted to be significantly protective against tetanus [41]. In “Spanish flu”, the observation that the survivors of the first wave were protected during the severe second wave suggested the feasibility of immunotherapy through the plasma of convalescent patients, which was successfully used, then as the only possible specific therapy [42,43,44,45,46,47,48]. A similar approach was adopted in COVID-19 with plasma from convalescents, and showed a certain efficacy, particularly if administered in the first week from the start of symptomatology, and represented a precious therapeutical resource to reduce disease severity and mortality in the first phase of the pandemic, when other preventive or therapeutic tools were not yet available [49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57].
Conversely, the most significant difference between the two pandemics was the much more advanced technology and scientific knowledge in the year 2020 than in 1918. In addition to the availability of antibiotics and life support techniques in intensive care units of hospitals, the research and the industries made accessible rapid and precise diagnostic tools shortly after the identification of the pathogen during COVID-19 pandemic. The etiological diagnosis paved the way to develop, in rapid succession, antivirals and monoclonal antibodies, as well as different types of specific and effective anti-viral vaccines, which were made available at a large scale for global immunization in less than one year.
6. Long-Term Sequelae
Another aspect to be discussed regarding the two pandemics is the observation of the long-term sequelae of the acute infection. In fact, for SARS-CoV-2 infection the “long COVID”, a multisystemic condition following an acute COVID-19 infection, probably due to SARS-CoV-2 persistence in the host and reactivation by unrelated viruses or other stimuli [125], has been observed in 10–30% of non-hospitalized, 50–70% of hospitalized, and 10–12% of vaccinated cases [126]. In this multisystemic condition, fatigue is a very frequent, nearly constant symptom, thus evoking the chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), which may be observed as sequelae of different viral diseases [126]. For “Spanish flu”, it is difficult to find evidence documenting a clinical situation reminding the long COVID, even in consideration of the social and environmental disruption following the ongoing World War I; however, a post-influenza fatigue resembling what is today defined as CFS was observed following the ”Spanish flu” [127]. Moreover, retrospective studies showed an increase in cardiovascular diseases in cohort subjects born in 1919, thus suggesting that the in utero or post-natal exposure to “Spanish flu” virus could have determined long-term cardio-vascular sequelae [128] (Table 2).
Table 2.
Similarities and differences between “Spanish flu” and COVID-19 pandemics.
7. Conclusions
Although more than one century has passed from the “Spanish flu” to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ignorance on the origin of the viruses and the difficulties in understanding the reasons for the high severity and mortality of both pandemics are the same. A similarity can also be observed in the natural history of the two pandemics, which showed the tendency to evolve towards endemic milder diseases, with kinetics which appears similar, but slower in COVID-19, despite the availability of vaccines, MoAbs and antivirals.
Although unproven and impossible to demonstrate during the “Spanish flu”, the survivors could have developed a protective immunity, which worked as herd immunity, that contributed to the end of the pandemic after three waves, even if at extremely high cost in terms of human lives. It is only possible to hypothesize that, had antibiotics been available in 1918, the majority of secondary pneumonia-induced deaths would have been avoided. Conversely, in the COVID-19 pandemic, neither the disease nor the vaccination showed the capacity to induce herd immunity. The protective effect of the vaccines against severe diseases and mortality allowed to markedly reduce the congestion of the hospitals and the number of deaths, but the influence on the pandemic containment, thus on the transition from pandemic to endemic condition, appeared to be scarcely or no relevant.
The dynamic interaction between humankind and microorganisms is witnessed by the continuous description of new pathogens for humans [129,130]; influenza and COVID-19 pandemics are zoonotic diseases which originate from very close contact between humans and animals in every-day life in some countries. Only the adoption of more careful and responsible behaviors will facilitate the prevention of these terrible diseases.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization has been made up F.L., M.S.P., R.B., R.N., R.D.S., S.M., R.N. and R.D. Writing has been particularly carried out by M.S.P., R.N., R.D.S. and R.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest
The text contains the personal opinion of the Authors, not of their Institutions. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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