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Machine Learning Models for Flood Hazard Assessment

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "New Sensors, New Technologies and Machine Learning in Water Sciences".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 December 2025 | Viewed by 2935

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Guest Editor
Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics, Energy and Environment, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Interests: hydrology; water resources; water management; water planning; floods; droughts; climate change; ecohydrology; statistical hydrology; hydroinformatic
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Machine learning (ML) models have emerged as valuable tools for flood hazard assessment, offering improved predictive capabilities and data-driven insights. Current state-of-the-art techniques include supervised learning algorithms, such as random forests and support vector machines, as well as advanced deep learning approaches like convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). These models leverage large datasets, including meteorological, hydrological, and geographic information, to enhance flood risk predictions and enable real-time monitoring. Despite their potential, several challenges remain. Data quality and availability are significant hurdles, as comprehensive datasets may be sparse or inconsistent across different regions. Moreover, ML models often require extensive training datasets to perform accurately, which can pose difficulties in areas with limited historical flood data. Additionally, the interpretability of complex models, particularly deep learning techniques, can impede their acceptance among stakeholders who need to understand decision-making processes. Also, most scientific papers are applied to specific case studies and their methodologies are not able to be generalized. This Special Issue calls for contributions that aim to generate knowledge and applied research that contributes to the inclusion of operative ML techniques for Flood Hazard Assessment design. In addition, we are seeking manuscripts that research (but not limited to): the integration of remote sensing data and the adoption of hybrid models that combine ML with traditional hydrological models, enhancing model robustness, addressing data limitations, and fostering collaboration among interdisciplinary teams to improve flood hazard assessment and mitigation strategies.

Prof. Dr. Álvaro Sordo-Ward
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • machine learning
  • artificial intelligent
  • flood hazard
  • flood forecasting
  • flood warning
  • flood risk
  • models
  • real time
  • monitoring systems
  • climate change
  • new sensors
  • mitigation strategies

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

31 pages, 48193 KB  
Article
Combining Machine Learning Models and Satellite Data of an Extreme Flood Event for Flood Susceptibility Mapping
by Nikos Tepetidis, Ioannis Benekos, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis and Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Water 2025, 17(18), 2678; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17182678 - 10 Sep 2025
Viewed by 665
Abstract
Machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in flood management worldwide to enhance the effectiveness of traditional methods for flood susceptibility mapping. Although these models have achieved higher accuracy than traditional ones, their application has not yet reached full maturity. We focus on [...] Read more.
Machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in flood management worldwide to enhance the effectiveness of traditional methods for flood susceptibility mapping. Although these models have achieved higher accuracy than traditional ones, their application has not yet reached full maturity. We focus on applying machine learning models to create flood susceptibility maps (FSMs) for Thessaly, Greece, a flood-prone region with extreme flood events recorded in recent years. This study utilizes 13 explanatory variables derived from topographical, hydrological, hydraulic, environmental and infrastructure data to train the models, using Storm Daniel—one of the most severe recent events in the region—as the primary reference for model training. The most significant of these variables were obtained from satellite data of the affected areas. Four machine learning algorithms were employed in the analysis, i.e., Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Accuracy evaluation revealed that tree-based models (RF, XGBoost) outperformed other classifiers. Specifically, the RF model achieved Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 96.9%, followed by XGBoost, SVM and LR, with 96.8%, 94.0% and 90.7%, respectively. A flood susceptibility map corresponding to a 1000-year return period rainfall scenario at 24 h scale was developed, aiming to support long-term flood risk assessment and planning. The analysis revealed that approximately 20% of the basin is highly prone to flooding. The results demonstrate the potential of machine learning in providing accurate and practical flood risk information to enhance flood management and support decision making for disaster preparedness in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Machine Learning Models for Flood Hazard Assessment)
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32 pages, 6735 KB  
Article
Flood Hazard Assessment Through AHP, Fuzzy AHP, and Frequency Ratio Methods: A Comparative Analysis
by Nikoleta Taoukidou, Dimitrios Karpouzos and Pantazis Georgiou
Water 2025, 17(14), 2155; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142155 - 19 Jul 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1905
Abstract
Floods are the biggest hydrometeorological disaster, affecting millions annually. Thus, flood hazard assessment is crucial and plays a pivotal role in rational water management. This study was undertaken to evaluate flood hazards through the application of MCDM methods and a bivariate statistical model [...] Read more.
Floods are the biggest hydrometeorological disaster, affecting millions annually. Thus, flood hazard assessment is crucial and plays a pivotal role in rational water management. This study was undertaken to evaluate flood hazards through the application of MCDM methods and a bivariate statistical model integrated with GIS. The methodologies applied were AHP, fuzzy AHP, and the frequency ratio. Eight flood-related criteria were considered—elevation, flow accumulation, geology, slope, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from the drainage network, drainage density, and rainfall index—for the construction of a Flood Hazard Map for each methodology, with the aim to delineate the regions within the study area most prone to flooding. The results demonstrated that around 34% of the Chalkidiki regional unit presents a high and very high hazard to the occurrence of floods. The comparison of the maps generated using DSC demonstrated that all models are capable of delineating high and very high hazard areas with overlap values varying from 0.8 to 0.98. The validation results indicated that the models exhibit sufficient performance in flood hazard mapping with AUC-ROC scores of 66.6%, 65.7%, and 76.5% for the AHP, FAHP, and FR models, respectively. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Machine Learning Models for Flood Hazard Assessment)
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