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Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst

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A special issue of Economies (ISSN 2227-7099).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2025) | Viewed by 33112

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Dr. Angeliki N. Menegaki

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Department of Business Administration and Tourism, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
Interests: climate change; energy economics; valuation; renewable energy; economic growth; sustainable energy; energy policy; energy management; sustainability; tourism economics and the environment
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Economic analysis and policy can encompass a variety of topics that are of interest for the economy. The aim of this Special Issue is to collect various economic papers and applications in honor of the retirement of Prof George M. Agiomirgianakis, an economics professor currently at the Hellenic Mediterranean University in Crete and with a long and influential career in Hellenic Open University as a founder of several programmes and a mentor of various pioneering initiatives. The Special Issue welcomes papers from various fields of economics, either research papers, review papers and commentaries, in all fields adderessed in the Economies journal, namely macroeconomic economic theory and policy, economic development, growth and natural resources, health economics, labour and education economics, monetary and financial economics, international trade regional economics. If you are a colleague, co-author or a collaborator of Prof George M. Agiomirgianakis and you would like to contribute your work to this Special Issue, please send your tentative topic title and abstract to the Guest Editor Prof Angeliki N. Menegaki (amenegaki@aua.gr).

Dr. Angeliki N. Menegaki
Guest Editor

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Keywords

economic analysis
economic policy
public debt crisis
Inflationary
macroeconomic economic theory
economic development

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Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

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24 pages, 913 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Unveiling Inter-Market Reactions to Different Asset Classes/Commodities Pre- and Post-COVID-19: An Exploratory Qualitative Study

by Siddhartha S. Bannerjee, Rekha Pillai, Mosab I. Tabash and Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy

Economies 2025, 13(3), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13030066 - 4 Mar 2025

Viewed by 888

Abstract

Comprehending intermarket relationships among asset classes/commodities and the changing dynamics among the gold, bitcoin, and oil markets under high or low-volatility indexes is now imperative for investors. This paper presents a qualitative study to elicit expert views on the relationships between two major commodities (gold and oil) and bitcoin, specifically emphasizing the pre- and post-COVID-19 era. The thematic analysis of 30 finance experts revealed gold as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier; however, it has lost importance as an inflation hedge post-COVID-19 (2020–2022). Moreover, findings indicated that bitcoin was not a substitute for gold and that there was a positive correlation between gold and oil and the gold volatility index (VIX). Furthermore, there was a negative correlation between the oil VIX and the bitcoin VIX, with no correlation between the gold–bitcoin or oil–bitcoin nexus. These findings are pertinent for investors and scholars in the context of portfolio allocation/portfolio design that comprise these vital asset classes/commodities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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24 pages, 765 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Financial and Economic Determinants of Banks Financial Distress in MENA Region

by Abdelmoneim Bahyeldin Mohamed Metwally, Mai M. Yasser, Eman Adel Ahmed and Mohamed Ali Shabeeb Ali

Economies 2025, 13(2), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13020056 - 19 Feb 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1063

Abstract

This study investigates the influences of financial performance and economic determinants (inflation rate and economic growth) on financial distress (FD) in the MENA region in the context of the contagion effect theory and Minsky’s financial instability theory. This paper examines the determinants of financial distress in the MENA region from 2002 until 2020 using pooled OLS, fixed effect, and GMM panel estimation models; then the results are used to estimate the effect over the long run. The results show that the things that cause financial distress are changing a lot between countries in the MENA region. This shows how important it is to separate the effects of economic and financial factors. The results show the significance of economic growth, ROA, ROE, inflation, and stock market profitability using fixed effects. The results changed when we used GMM, concluding that economic growth, ROA, ROE, and stock market profitability were significant, while inflation was not significant. Therefore, there is a significant and negative relationship between financial distress and economic growth in GCC-MENA as well as other MENA countries. Our results can be of importance to investors and regulators. The introduction of a more stable political environment and engagement in international economic and financial markets will decrease the negative impacts of financial distress and boost economic growth and its sustainability in the MENA region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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31 pages, 4435 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Divergence Between New and Existing FDI in Times of Sustained Inflation Post the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of a Subnational Economy in the U.S.

by Roxana Wright and Chen Wu

Economies 2025, 13(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13020055 - 19 Feb 2025

Viewed by 719

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and foreign direct investment (FDI) is not clear-cut in theory. In the U.S., rising inflation coupled with increased economic recovery boosted FDI immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic but suppressed it afterwards. To shed light on the relationship between inflation and the resulting contractionary monetary policy and FDI, three key propositions were put forth for investigation. The propositions rely on relevant scientific literature showing that (1) although the connection between FDI and inflation is complex, a high and sustained inflation depresses incoming FDI due to increases in uncertainty and guarding government policies; (2) there exist significant location-based differences in how this connection manifests; and (3) high inflation and subsequent policies motivate FDI-related strategic action. Thus, we propose that new FDI is expected to be negatively affected by the rising entry cost associated with an inflationary economy that adopts anti-inflationary policies. Second, there exists heterogeneity in the effects of inflation on new FDI across subnational economies with various local characteristics. Third, existing FDI demonstrates strategic actions and expansion at the subnational location and beyond, even under inflationary pressure. We employ a positive comparative analysis based on descriptive statistics and qualitative interpretation of data to examine the status and activities of both new FDI (using subnational aggregated data) and existing foreign businesses (using firm-level data) in the state of New Hampshire during the recent inflation surge of 2022–2023. Our analysis provides empirical evidence supporting our propositions. Key implications are that, during challenging times of inflation and recovery, business leaders and economic development professionals should anticipate strategic actions to expand markets, products, operations, and partnerships. Leaders and professionals should act to take advantage of business actions outside the subnational location, as more companies look to strengthen and diversify their national and international networks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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36 pages, 2102 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Business Efficiency: Insights from Visegrad Four Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Pavol Durana, Erika Kovalova, Roman Blazek and Klaudia Bicanovska

Economies 2025, 13(2), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13020026 - 22 Jan 2025

Viewed by 943

Abstract

Efficiency is one of the tenets in assessing the financial health of an enterprise. Ultimately, the form of asset management has a major impact on growth but also on the decline of profit. It also reveals how the enterprises are positioned within the competitive market environment. For this reason, the aim of this article is to define the level of business activity in the Visegrad Four in the pre-crisis, during-crisis and post-crisis periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. The investigation included 48,650 enterprises from Slovakia, Czechia, Poland, and Hungary over the period 2017–2023. We determined the median values of eleven business efficiency indicators separately for each country and sector. The Friedman test and Kruskal–Wallis test confirmed significant differences between years and countries. Furthermore, multiple pairwise comparisons revealed analogies between the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, as well as similarities between the two pandemic years for the tested ratios. One can observe that the results serve as the foundation for regional and international benchmarks, particularly for enterprises from former Eastern Bloc countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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30 pages, 680 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Technological Innovation and Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria Amidst Oil Transition: ARDL Analysis

by Joel T. Adeyemo, Adel Ahmed, Dominic T. Abaver, Hosam Alden Riyadh, Mosab I. Tabash and Adedoyin Isola Lawal

Economies 2024, 12(9), 253; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090253 - 20 Sep 2024

Viewed by 4955

Abstract

In contemporary discourse, Nigeria’s reliance on its oil sector is proving insufficient for sustained economic growth. The volatility of oil prices, geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and environmental sustainability concerns have exposed the vulnerabilities of an oil-dependent economy, emphasizing the need for diversification and a renewed focus on agriculture. This study investigates the relationship between technological innovation and agricultural productivity in Nigeria, contrasting it with the oil sector. Using the ARDL estimation technique, our findings reveal a significant negative influence of immediate lagged agricultural productivity (AGTFP(−1)), indicating technological constraints. Technological innovation, proxied by TFP, shows a substantial impact on agricultural productivity, with a negative long-term effect (−90.71) but a positive, though insignificant, impact on agricultural output (0.0034). The comparative analysis underscores that the agricultural sector tends to benefit more from technological innovation than the oil sector. This highlights the critical need to prioritize technological advancements in agriculture to drive sustainable growth and economic resilience in Nigeria. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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18 pages, 623 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Governance and Fiscal Decentralisation in Latin America: An Empirical Approach

by Diego E. Pinilla-Rodríguez and Patricia Hernández-Medina

Economies 2024, 12(8), 207; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12080207 - 19 Aug 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1674

Abstract

The objective of this study was to establish the relationship between certain institutional variables and the effectiveness of fiscal decentralisation in Latin America. To fulfil this objective, we took a sample of 15 Latin American countries for the years 1996 to 2020 to estimate the logarithm of GDP per capita based on the level of fiscal decentralisation, as well as its interaction with six institutional variables plus three control variables. The results show that institutional variables always modulate the effects of fiscal decentralisation, in most cases significantly and negatively, the exceptions being accountability with a positive result and government effectiveness with a non-significant result. It was concluded that in the presence of weak regulations, political conflicts, and corruption, fiscal decentralisation can worsen social or economic circumstances in Latin America. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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32 pages, 393 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Crises and Contagion in Equity Portfolios

by Christos Floros, Dimitrios Vortelinos and Ioannis Chatziantoniou

Economies 2024, 12(7), 168; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12070168 - 1 Jul 2024

Viewed by 1339

Abstract

We examine the international impact of recent financial crises on contagion dynamics within international equity portfolios. First, we highlight the importance of macroeconomics for portfolio weighting for each region, and then we examine contagion via a structural regime-switching model and a contagion test. We also examine sources of contagion using regime variables, crisis events, and macroeconomic variables. In particular, we study the Argentine debt crisis, the US financial crisis, and the EU sovereign debt crisis. The macroeconomic variables include changes in market capitalization, trade integration, GDP growth, inflation rate, and interest rate. We also employ two classifications, one relating to the portfolio weighting scheme and another one that considers implied global and regional betas. The empirical findings reveal the existence of financial contagion for all the crises that we investigate. Both methods produce similar results. Stronger contagion is evident for global rather than regional betas. Europe is the region with the highest level of contagion and the one mostly affected by the crises. As far as macroeconomic variables are concerned, they are very important in two ways. They statistically significantly explain contagion, while they also reveal contagion under various portfolio weighting schemes. Both methods suggest that the Argentinian crisis mainly contributes to contagion. The research implications suggest that asset allocation and portfolio management should consider both the global and the regional aspects of contagion as differences can occur. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

19 pages, 285 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Relationship between Credit Rating and Environmental, Social, and Governance Score in Banking

by Dimitrios Vortelinos, Angeliki N. Menegaki and Spyros Alexiou

Economies 2024, 12(6), 152; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060152 - 15 Jun 2024

Viewed by 3740

Abstract

The present paper investigates the relationship between stock prices, credit ratings, and ESG scores for banks internationally. First, it describes stock prices and ESG scores at an annual frequency, as well as stock price and credit risk at a daily frequency. The relationships between (a) stock price and credit rating returns with ESG score returns and (b) among ESG scores are examined by pairwise annual correlation, and daily correlations are examined between price and credit rating returns. Furthermore, Granger causality is used to examine the relationships between the following: (a) price and ESG score annual returns; (b) price and credit rating daily returns; and (c) total and pillar annual ESG scores. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by providing a detailed temporal analysis using both annual and daily data frequencies, which is relatively rare in the field. There is evidence of statistically and empirically important relations in the form of pairwise correlations. The regressions reveal a low significance of few ESG score changes in explaining credit rating changes. A unique aspect of this paper is the comprehensive analysis of 16 granular ESG scores, including overall scores, pillar scores, and sub-scores, allowing for a multi-faceted understanding of how specific ESG factors impact financial metrics. We found evidence of the significance of COVID-19 in all research questions. Additionally, this paper highlights the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationships between ESG scores, credit ratings, and stock prices, offering timely insights into the heightened importance and volatility of ESG factors during crisis periods. Future research needs to shed more light on this relationship, however. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

17 pages, 1356 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Progression and Economic Growth: Analyzing the Impact of ICT Advancements on the GDP of European Union Countries

by Anastasios I. Magoutas, Maria Chaideftou, Dimitra Skandali and Panos T. Chountalas

Economies 2024, 12(3), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12030063 - 6 Mar 2024

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 8313

Abstract

This research thoroughly examines the dynamic relationship between the European Union’s economic growth and rapid advancements in Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Specifically, it assesses how certain ICT indicators are associated with significant economic growth. Utilizing an extensive dataset from the Digital Economy and Society Index 2022 (DESI), the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), this study encompasses data from all 27 European Union member states. Employing structural equation modelling, our analysis illustrates the positive correlation between ICT development and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) index. Our findings highlight the critical role of swiftly evolving technological landscapes, emphasizing the growing influence of new Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies in business sectors. Furthermore, this study showcases the need to enhance human capital and expedite the growth of e-government technologies. These advancements are pivotal in strengthening the infrastructure supporting citizens and public enterprises across European countries, thereby contributing to their economic vitality. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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20 pages, 1600 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Asymmetric and Nonlinear Foreign Debt–Inflation Nexus in Brazil: Evidence from NARDL and Markov Regime Switching Approaches

by Mesbah Fathy Sharaf, Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen and Badr Abdulaziz Binzaid

Economies 2024, 12(1), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010018 - 15 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2812

Abstract

This paper augments the sparse literature on the inflationary impact of foreign debt in Brazil while addressing methodological caveats in previous studies. We depart from the linearity assumption and employ two nonlinear techniques: the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and a Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to investigate the connection between foreign debt and inflation within a multivariate framework. The analyses consider the presence of structural breaks via assessing variable stationarity using the Zivot and Andrew unit root test and incorporating a residual-based cointegration test proposed by Gregory and Hansen. Additionally, we apply a multiple structural breakpoints test by Bai and Perron to determine the presence of structural breaks in the impact of foreign debt on inflation. Our findings robustly indicate that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive effect, while the nominal effective exchange rate has a negative effect on inflation in both the short and long run. The NARDL model reveals that only positive changes in foreign debt have a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run, whereas both positive and negative foreign debt changes significantly affect inflation in the long run. The results from the MSR model are generally consistent with those of the NARDL model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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Review

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40 pages, 11472 KiB

Open AccessReview

Greece’s Economic Odyssey: Persistent Challenges and Pathways Forward

by Evmorfia (Fay) Makantasi and Helias Valentis

Economies 2024, 12(6), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12060139 - 4 Jun 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 4600

Abstract

Two years after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Greek economy seems to have overcome the turmoil of the pandemic crisis as well as that of the following energy crisis. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to assume that the Greek economy has returned to a sound state, since this was not really the case even before the pandemic. Furthermore, the anemic growth rates of the pre-pandemic period were followed by an equally weak average growth rate (including the impact of the pandemic), as some of the significant fundamental weaknesses of the Greek economy, which had accumulated over time and constituted the real origin of the Greek crisis, have not been properly addressed yet. This paper attempts a complete mapping of the current state of the Greek economy, offering an insight into the external and internal determinants affecting it. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Analysis and Policy before, during and after a Public Debt Crisis, a Pandemic and an Inflationary Outburst)

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