Large-Scale Circulation Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track

A Special Issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433) belonging to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 22 March 2027 | Viewed by 1480

Editors

Department of Geosciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
Interests: tropical cyclone post-landfall decay; translation speed; storm footprint

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Applied Aviation Sciences Department, College of Aviation, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA
Interests: tropical cyclone climatology; storm-induced rainfall; hurricane hazards and risk

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and track are closely linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in which they are embedded. Environmental steering flow, background thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, and multiscale atmospheric variability contribute to variations in storm motion, translation speed, structural evolution, and intensity change. However, the understanding of how these influences vary across different timescales and during coastal approach, landfall, and post-landfall evolution remains incomplete. 

This Special Issue aims to advance the understanding of the role of large-scale circulation in influencing TC behavior across temporal and spatial scales. We invite contributions that examine large-scale circulation features, including but not limited to steering flow, vertical wind shear, environmental moisture, upper-level outflow, and modes of climate variability that shape TC intensity and track. 

We welcome interdisciplinary research employing observational analyses, reanalysis products, historical datasets, numerical simulations, climate model projections, remote sensing, and emerging data-driven approaches. Contributions on hybrid physical-statistical methods for diagnosing the influence of circulation on TC behavior are encouraged. Studies assessing how changes in large-scale circulation alter TC tracks, translation speeds, intensity changes, and storm size, and how these changes translate into differences in hazard exposure and impacts, are also relevant.

Dr. Yijie Zhu
Dr. Yao Zhou
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • tropical cyclones
  • large-scale circulations
  • storm intensification
  • storm track
  • translation speed
  • hazard, exposure and risk

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

17 pages, 6981 KB  
Article
Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential in the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model Version 3
by Bushra Al Saadi, Jing Zhang and Jian Shi
Atmosphere 2026, 17(4), 369; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040369 - 2 Apr 2026
Viewed by 1036
Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3) in reproducing tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential, utilizing two distinct genesis potential indices (GPIs): the Emanuel–Nolan GPI (ENGPI) and Dynamic GPI (DGPI). By comparing historical simulations against [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3) in reproducing tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential, utilizing two distinct genesis potential indices (GPIs): the Emanuel–Nolan GPI (ENGPI) and Dynamic GPI (DGPI). By comparing historical simulations against observational and reanalysis data, we demonstrate that AWI-CM3 is a high-fidelity model capable of replicating the essential climatological annual mean, seasonal cycle, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-modulated interannual features of TC genesis (TCG) potential. However, both indices exhibit specific limitations within the simulation. Specifically, the ENGPI in AWI-CM3 systematically overestimates the magnitude of tropical cyclone-favorable conditions, primarily due to biases in simulated sea surface conditions. Specifically, the model exhibits basin-dependent SST biases, with pronounced warm biases over the WNP, ENP, NIO, SIO, and SP, contrasting with a cold bias over the NA. In contrast, while the DGPI yields a more realistic magnitude, it displays a more complex spatial bias structure. Both indices in AWI-CM3 accurately capture the seasonal cycle of TCG potential across most basins, with the notable exception of the North Indian Ocean, which reflects both the model’s challenges in representing the seasonal retreat of regional monsoon circulations and certain inherent limitations of the GPIs themselves. Furthermore, AWI-CM3 faithfully captures the interannual modulation of TCG potential by ENSO, notwithstanding some regional discrepancies. Our evaluation provides critical insights into the necessity of a cautious application of GPIs in future climate projections using climate models. Full article
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