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Forecasting, Volume 3, Issue 1

2021 March - 15 articles

Cover Story: Economic forecasting is difficult, largely because of the many sources of non-stationarity affecting observational time series. Forecasting competitions aim to improve the practice of economic forecasting by providing very large data sets on which the efficacy of different forecasting methods can be evaluated. We propose 8 general principles that seem important for successful forecasting and show their relevance to the methods that did well in the M4 competition. We establish some general properties of the M4 data set of 100,000 time series, and use these together with the principles to improve the benchmark predictors, as well as the Card method we created and used in that competition. A data generation process that captures the salient features of the M4 annual data is proposed. View this paper
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Articles (15)

  • Article
  • Open Access
27 Citations
4,425 Views
14 Pages

20 March 2021

Energy efficiency topics have been covered by several energy management approaches in the literature, including participation in demand response programs where the consumers provide load reduction upon request or price signals. In such approaches, it...

  • Article
  • Open Access
9 Citations
3,739 Views
14 Pages

17 March 2021

The intermittent and uncontrollable power output from the ever-increasing renewable energy sources, require large amounts of operating reserves to retain the system frequency within its nominal range. Based on day-ahead load forecasts, many research...

  • Article
  • Open Access
6 Citations
5,077 Views
21 Pages

9 March 2021

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. An accurate model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and resource...

  • Feature Paper
  • Review
  • Open Access
162 Citations
18,787 Views
26 Pages

Trends in Using IoT with Machine Learning in Health Prediction System

  • Amani Aldahiri,
  • Bashair Alrashed and
  • Walayat Hussain

7 March 2021

Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool that delivers insights hidden in Internet of Things (IoT) data. These hybrid technologies work smartly to improve the decision-making process in different areas such as education, security, business, and the h...

  • Article
  • Open Access
9 Citations
5,889 Views
15 Pages

5 March 2021

In an environment such as e-commerce, characterized by the presence of numerous agents, competition based on product characteristics is a very important aspect. This paper proposes a model based on vector autoregressive processes (VAR) and Lasso pena...

  • Article
  • Open Access
19 Citations
9,039 Views
28 Pages

Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions

  • Jennifer L. Castle,
  • Jurgen A. Doornik and
  • David F. Hendry

23 February 2021

Economic forecasting is difficult, largely because of the many sources of nonstationarity influencing observational time series. Forecasting competitions aim to improve the practice of economic forecasting by providing very large data sets on which t...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3 Citations
5,440 Views
22 Pages

17 February 2021

In a context of growing uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the opinion of businesses and consumers about the expected development of the main variables that affect their activity becomes essential for economic forecasting. In this paper, we...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
9,105 Views
11 Pages

16 February 2021

The main purpose of this article was to define a model that could defeat the online bookmakers’ odds, where the betting item considered was the first five innings of major league baseball (MLB) matches. The betting odds of online bookmakers have two...

  • Article
  • Open Access
19 Citations
5,352 Views
17 Pages

Modeling of Lake Malombe Annual Fish Landings and Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE)

  • Rodgers Makwinja,
  • Seyoum Mengistou,
  • Emmanuel Kaunda,
  • Tena Alemiew,
  • Titus Bandulo Phiri,
  • Ishmael Bobby Mphangwe Kosamu and
  • Chikumbusko Chiziwa Kaonga

8 February 2021

Forecasting, using time series data, has become the most relevant and effective tool for fisheries stock assessment. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling has been commonly used to predict the general trend for fish landings with...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3 Citations
4,149 Views
35 Pages

Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data

  • Monica Defend,
  • Aleksey Min,
  • Lorenzo Portelli,
  • Franz Ramsauer,
  • Francesco Sandrini and
  • Rudi Zagst

8 February 2021

This article considers the estimation of Approximate Dynamic Factor Models with homoscedastic, cross-sectionally correlated errors for incomplete panel data. In contrast to existing estimation approaches, the presented estimation method comprises two...

  • Article
  • Open Access
30 Citations
4,840 Views
11 Pages

Electrical Load Forecast by Means of LSTM: The Impact of Data Quality

  • Alfredo Nespoli,
  • Emanuele Ogliari,
  • Silvia Pretto,
  • Michele Gavazzeni,
  • Sonia Vigani and
  • Franco Paccanelli

8 February 2021

Accurate forecast of aggregate end-users electric load profiles is becoming a hot topic in research for those main issues addressed in many fields such as the electricity services market. Hence, load forecast is an extremely important task which shou...

  • Article
  • Open Access
27 Citations
5,140 Views
20 Pages

4 January 2021

Earthquakes prediction is considered the holy grail of seismology. After almost a century of efforts without convincing results, the recent raise of machine learning (ML) methods in conjunction with the deployment of dense seismic networks has booste...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4 Citations
4,113 Views
16 Pages

28 December 2020

The question of whether the liberalization of the gas industry has led to less concentrated markets has attracted much interest among the scientific community. Classical mathematical regression tools, statistical tests, and optimization equilibrium p...

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Forecasting - ISSN 2571-9394