Abstract
Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional Coffea arabica cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation has led to the consideration of cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary. Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios, potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario with a 2 °C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, C.E.G.O., M.P. and J.K.; methodology, C.E.G.O., V.M.B. and J.K.; data curation, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; formal analysis, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., E.R., W.A.C., D.A.S.V., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; investigation, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., E.R., W.A.C., D.A.S.V., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; project administration, C.E.G.O.; supervision, C.E.G.O. and J.K.; visualization, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., M.P., G.A.A.-C. and J.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
The authors would like to thank the Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (AGROSAVIA) for providing funding under project #1002310. This research is product of the Collaboration Agreement #S397 between AGROSAVIA, CIAT, and CACS-University of Southern Queensland. We extend our gratitude to the entire research team of AGROSAVIA’s robusta project.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement
Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement
The species occurrences datasets (Data S1–S2) are directly available in the supplementary information of the article titled “Preparing Colombian coffee production for climate change: Integrated spatial modelling to identify potential Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner) growing areas”, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03717-2. Other data are available under specific requests.
Acknowledgments
We thank Scott Power, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences -CACS- University of Southern Queensland, for its institutional support. We thank Christian Bunn, CIAT-Bioversity Alliance, for its data support. Special thanks to the AGROSAVIA researchers Douglas A. Gómez-Latorre, Juliana A. Gómez Valderrama, Diana E. Correa Pinilla, Allende Pesca, Albert J. Gutiérrez Vanegas for their technical support. We also thank to all team members of the Robusta project based at Turipana, El Mira, Tibaitatá, La Libertad, Carimagua, and Taluma AGROSAVIA’s research centres that helped with the establishment, care, and maintenance of the field experiments.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests. No financial interest to disclosure.
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