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Abstract

Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia †

by
Diego Alejandro Salinas Velandia
1,*,
William Andres Cardona
1,
Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco
2,
Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo
1,
Jarrod Kath
3,4,
Eric Rahn
5,
Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
3 and
Mario Porcel
2,6
1
Centro de Investigación Tibaitatá, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía a Mosquera, Bogotá 250047, Cundinamarca, Colombia
2
Centro de Investigación La Libertad, Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (Agrosavia), Km 14 Vía Villavicencio-Puerto López, Villavicencio 500008, Meta, Colombia
3
Center for Applied Climate Sciences (CACS), School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, QLD 4350, Australia
4
School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba City, QLD 4350, Australia
5
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali 763537, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
6
Pesquera, Alimentaria y de La Producción Ecológica (IFAPA), Centro Málaga, Instituto de Investigación y Formación Agraria, Cortijo de La Cruz S/N, 29140 Málaga, Churriana, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
Presented at the International Coffee Convention 2024, Mannheim, Germany, 17–18 October 2024.
Proceedings 2024, 109(1), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168
Published: 1 August 2024
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of ICC 2024)
Versions Notes

Abstract

:
Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional Coffea arabica cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation has led to the consideration of cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary. Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios, potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario with a 2 °C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, C.E.G.O., M.P. and J.K.; methodology, C.E.G.O., V.M.B. and J.K.; data curation, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; formal analysis, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., E.R., W.A.C., D.A.S.V., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; investigation, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., E.R., W.A.C., D.A.S.V., G.A.A.-C., M.P. and J.K.; project administration, C.E.G.O.; supervision, C.E.G.O. and J.K.; visualization, C.E.G.O., V.M.B., M.P., G.A.A.-C. and J.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

The authors would like to thank the Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (AGROSAVIA) for providing funding under project #1002310. This research is product of the Collaboration Agreement #S397 between AGROSAVIA, CIAT, and CACS-University of Southern Queensland. We extend our gratitude to the entire research team of AGROSAVIA’s robusta project.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The species occurrences datasets (Data S1–S2) are directly available in the supplementary information of the article titled “Preparing Colombian coffee production for climate change: Integrated spatial modelling to identify potential Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner) growing areas”, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03717-2. Other data are available under specific requests.

Acknowledgments

We thank Scott Power, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences -CACS- University of Southern Queensland, for its institutional support. We thank Christian Bunn, CIAT-Bioversity Alliance, for its data support. Special thanks to the AGROSAVIA researchers Douglas A. Gómez-Latorre, Juliana A. Gómez Valderrama, Diana E. Correa Pinilla, Allende Pesca, Albert J. Gutiérrez Vanegas for their technical support. We also thank to all team members of the Robusta project based at Turipana, El Mira, Tibaitatá, La Libertad, Carimagua, and Taluma AGROSAVIA’s research centres that helped with the establishment, care, and maintenance of the field experiments.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests. No financial interest to disclosure.
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Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Velandia, D.A.S.; Cardona, W.A.; Orozco, C.E.G.; Araujo-Carrillo, G.A.; Kath, J.; Rahn, E.; Byrareddy, V.M.; Porcel, M. Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia. Proceedings 2024, 109, 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168

AMA Style

Velandia DAS, Cardona WA, Orozco CEG, Araujo-Carrillo GA, Kath J, Rahn E, Byrareddy VM, Porcel M. Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia. Proceedings. 2024; 109(1):42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168

Chicago/Turabian Style

Velandia, Diego Alejandro Salinas, William Andres Cardona, Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez Orozco, Gustavo Alfonso Araujo-Carrillo, Jarrod Kath, Eric Rahn, Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy, and Mario Porcel. 2024. "Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia" Proceedings 109, no. 1: 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168

APA Style

Velandia, D. A. S., Cardona, W. A., Orozco, C. E. G., Araujo-Carrillo, G. A., Kath, J., Rahn, E., Byrareddy, V. M., & Porcel, M. (2024). Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia. Proceedings, 109(1), 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168

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