Pathways to Achieving Net Zero in Coffee Agriculture: Long-Term Strategies for Emission Reductions ^†

Abstract

Often, in the discussion of reducing the climate impact of coffee, there is a short-term focus on what is needed to hit short-term (2030) targets. To deliver systemic change, it is important to also look at what is needed to deliver in the long term. Using a simplified model built from emissions reporting, and studies on the key impacts of coffee agriculture (on farm), the authors have reviewed what needs to be true for all coffee agriculture, in order for coffee to be grown in a net zero (90% footprint reduction) future. This will cover the years of 2020–2070, following a science-based reduction pathway to net zero from 2050 to 2070. Looking at what the long-term drivers of change are puts shorter term removal projects like agroforestry into perspective, and sets the stage for the need for long-term collective action. Given timescales, the beginnings of this need to start now. Between now and 2070, the coffee industry needs to eliminate 1.2 Bn metric tons of emissions from its agricultural impact. Less than 10% can come from in-farm direct tree planting. Soil-organic carbon increase from regenerative practice is also unlikely to be significant. Key drivers will be the prevention of deforestation, farmer training, biochar, and new coffee varieties. To drive change, the sector needs to understand the scale of the challenge and the likely outcomes, in order to focus its investments on protecting its long-term value chain risk, as well as managing shorter term actions.