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Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Climate Change Multi-Risk Assessment in the Mining Industry

1
School of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 157 80 Athens, Greece
2
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Lofos Nimfon, Thission, 11810 Athens, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Infrastructures 2019, 4(3), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures4030038
Received: 8 May 2019 / Revised: 9 June 2019 / Accepted: 20 June 2019 / Published: 26 June 2019
Changing climate conditions affect mining operations all over the world, but so far, the mining sector has focused primarily on mitigation actions. Nowadays, there exists increasing recognition of the need for planned adaptation actions. To this end, the development of a practical tool for the assessment of climate change-related risks to support the mining community is deemed necessary. In this study, a comprehensive framework is proposed for climate change multi-risk assessment at the local level customized for the needs of the mining industry. The framework estimates the climate change risks in economic terms by modeling the main activities that a mining company performs, in a probabilistic model, using Bayes’ theorem. The model permits incorporating inherent uncertainty via fuzzy logic and is implemented in two versatile ways: as a discrete Bayesian network or as a conditional linear Gaussian network. This innovative quantitative methodology produces probabilistic outcomes in monetary values estimated either as percentage of annual loss revenue or net loss/gains value. Finally, the proposed framework is the first multi-risk methodology in the mining context that considers all the relevant hazards caused by climate change extreme weather events, which offers a tool for selecting the most cost-effective action among various adaptation strategies. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; risk assessment; mining; adaptation; Bayesian networks climate change; risk assessment; mining; adaptation; Bayesian networks
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MDPI and ACS Style

Mavrommatis, E.; Damigos, D.; Mirasgedis, S. Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Climate Change Multi-Risk Assessment in the Mining Industry. Infrastructures 2019, 4, 38.

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