In Situ Estimation of Breach Outflow Hydrographs from Fluvial Dike Failures: A Methodology Integrating Real-Time Monitoring and Physical Modelling ^†

Embankment structures in civil engineering, such as earth dams and fluvial dikes, have a crucial role in society. These structures, often used for water storage and mining tailing containment, are cost-effective due to their reliance on locally sourced materials. While the failure of concrete structures is not so frequent but often lead to severe consequences, embankment structures, particularly fluvial dikes, are more prone to breach and the consequences vary from mild to catastrophic, depending on the proximity to human populations. Worldwide, some fluvial dike failures have resulted in catastrophic outcomes for human lives, the local economy and the environment. This paper aims to develop a methodology to calculate in situ breach outflow hydrographs, resorting to real-time, non-intrusive and friendly access technology. The goal is to provide a practical platform for developing and testing integrated systems applicable to prototype failure cases. An accurate, real-time hydrograph estimation capacity improves risk assessment. The proposed methodology deploys, in a medium-scale experimental facility, common technology and data processing techniques to characterize the evolution of a fluvial dike failure. The morphodynamic and hydrodynamic components influencing the in situ breach outflow hydrograph are assessed by characterizing, in real-time, the breach morphology at the surface and underwater, the surface velocity maps and the corresponding cartesian coordinates.