You are currently viewing a new version of our website. To view the old version click .
Mathematics
  • This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
  • Article
  • Open Access

13 December 2025

Causal Discovery from Time-Series Data with Short-Term Invariance-Based Convolutional Neural Networks

,
,
,
,
,
and
1
Faculty of Computing, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
2
School of Artificial Intelligence, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China
3
Faculty of Computing, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China
4
Department of Computer Science, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
Mathematics2025, 13(24), 3979;https://doi.org/10.3390/math13243979 
(registering DOI)
This article belongs to the Special Issue Causal Discovery and Its Applications

Abstract

Causal discovery from time-series data seeks to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causal relationships among variables, which are essential for many scientific domains. Unlike causal discovery from static data, the time-series setting requires longer sequences with a larger number of observed time steps. To address this challenge, we propose STIC, a novel gradient-based framework that leverages Short-Term Invariance with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to uncover causal structures. Specifically, STIC exploits both temporal and mechanistic invariance within short observation windows, treating them as independent units to improve sample efficiency. We further design two causal convolution kernels corresponding to these two types of invariance, enabling the estimation of window-level causal graphs. To justify the use of CNNs for causal discovery, we theoretically establish the equivalence between convolution and the generative process of time-series data under the assumption of identifiability in additive noise models. Extensive experiments on synthetic data, as well as an fMRI benchmark, demonstrate that STIC consistently outperforms existing baselines and achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly when the number of available time steps is limited.

Article Metrics

Citations

Article Access Statistics

Multiple requests from the same IP address are counted as one view.