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Climate, Volume 7, Issue 10 (October 2019)
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Cover Story (view full-size image) Anticipating seasonal climate anomalies is essential for defining short-term adaptation measures. [...] Read more. Anticipating seasonal climate anomalies is essential for defining short-term adaptation measures. For this to be actionable, many stakeholders require seasonal forecasts at a regional scale to be properly coupled to regional vulnerabilities. In this study, we present a regional-scale seasonal forecast system (SFS) over Central Italy resulting from a double dynamical downscaling performed through the climate model RegCM. An ensemble of the global-scale NCEP-CFSv2 provides driving fields. Firstly, RegCM dynamically downscales NCEP-CFSv2 predictions from a resolution of 100 to 60 km over Europe. The first downscaling drives a second downscaling over Central Italy at 12 km. To investigate the added value of downscaled forecasts, a three-step evaluation of the driving CFS and the two downscaled SFSs has been conducted. View this paper