Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

Sun, Yan; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Li, Rong; Buckley, Brendan M.; Gillies, Robert; Hansen, Kyle G.

doi:10.3390/cli6020042

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Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

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Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA

Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA

Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA

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Tree Ring Lab, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, UY 10964, USA

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Climate 2018, 6(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

Received: 24 March 2018 / Revised: 4 May 2018 / Accepted: 10 May 2018 / Published: 16 May 2018

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

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Abstract

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall (

R_{A}

) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s

R_{A}

is characterized by a pronounced decadal oscillation signal. We use the decadal mode of

R_{A}

along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as an external variable, accounts for most of the autoregressive

R_{A}

, while taking advantage of the predictability from the basin-wide Pacific climate oscillation. Using this model, the decadal prediction of

R_{A}

can be reasonably achieved with a 10-year-ahead forecasting skill score (SS) about 0.46. We therefore suggest, with this paper, that forecasting

R_{A}

for Central Vietnam for multiple years ahead is possible using a time-series model. View Full-Text

Keywords: Central Vietnam; time-series model; tree-ring; decadal prediction

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MDPI and ACS Style

Sun, Y.; Wang, S.-Y.S.; Li, R.; Buckley, B.M.; Gillies, R.; Hansen, K.G. Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability. Climate 2018, 6, 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

AMA Style

Sun Y, Wang S-YS, Li R, Buckley BM, Gillies R, Hansen KG. Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability. Climate. 2018; 6(2):42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sun, Yan, S. -Y. Simon Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert Gillies, and Kyle G. Hansen. 2018. "Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability" Climate 6, no. 2: 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

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Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

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