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Article

Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
2
Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
3
Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
4
Tree Ring Lab, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, UY 10964, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2018, 6(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042
Received: 24 March 2018 / Revised: 4 May 2018 / Accepted: 10 May 2018 / Published: 16 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall ( R A ) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s R A is characterized by a pronounced decadal oscillation signal. We use the decadal mode of R A along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as an external variable, accounts for most of the autoregressive R A , while taking advantage of the predictability from the basin-wide Pacific climate oscillation. Using this model, the decadal prediction of R A can be reasonably achieved with a 10-year-ahead forecasting skill score (SS) about 0.46. We therefore suggest, with this paper, that forecasting R A for Central Vietnam for multiple years ahead is possible using a time-series model. View Full-Text
Keywords: Central Vietnam; time-series model; tree-ring; decadal prediction Central Vietnam; time-series model; tree-ring; decadal prediction
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MDPI and ACS Style

Sun, Y.; Wang, S.-Y.S.; Li, R.; Buckley, B.M.; Gillies, R.; Hansen, K.G. Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability. Climate 2018, 6, 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

AMA Style

Sun Y, Wang S-YS, Li R, Buckley BM, Gillies R, Hansen KG. Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability. Climate. 2018; 6(2):42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sun, Yan, S. -Y. Simon Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert Gillies, and Kyle G. Hansen. 2018. "Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability" Climate 6, no. 2: 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

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