Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5
1
Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Change Research Units, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
2
School of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
3
National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, Chiang Mai 53000, Thailand
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Agriculture 2021, 11(1), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11010023
Received: 4 November 2020
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Revised: 8 December 2020
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Accepted: 14 December 2020
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Published: 1 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cropping Systems: Implications on Climate and Environment)
Climate change has an effect human living in a variety of ways, such as health and food security. This study presents a prediction of crop yields and production risks during the years 2020–2029 in northern Thailand using the coupling of a 1 km resolution regional climate model, which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method, and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared with the observations, with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.65–0.89. The results reveal the negative effects of climate change on rice and maize production in northern Thailand. We show that, in northern Thailand, rainfed rice and maize production may be reduced by 5% for rice and 4% for maize. Moreover, rice and maize production risk analysis showed that maize production is at a high risk of low production, while rice production is at a low risk. Additional irrigation, crop diversification, the selection of appropriate planting dates and methods of conservation are promising adaptation strategies in northern Thailand that may improve crop production.
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MDPI and ACS Style
Amnuaylojaroen, T.; Chanvichit, P.; Janta, R.; Surapipith, V. Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5. Agriculture 2021, 11, 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11010023
AMA Style
Amnuaylojaroen T, Chanvichit P, Janta R, Surapipith V. Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5. Agriculture. 2021; 11(1):23. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11010023
Chicago/Turabian StyleAmnuaylojaroen, Teerachai, Pavinee Chanvichit, Radshadaporn Janta, and Vanisa Surapipith. 2021. "Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5" Agriculture 11, no. 1: 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11010023
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