The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. The Model
3. Results
3.1. Vaccinations
3.2. Infections
3.3. Costs of Risky Behavior
3.4. Event Study: Political Belief Response to COVID-19 Closure
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome Term | Vac | Vac | Vac | Infections | Infections | Infections | Infections | Infections |
Pop | -- | −4 × 10−6 (8 × 10−6) | −2.6 × 10−5 (8 × 10−6) | -- | −5 × 10−6 (2 × 10−6) | −1.6 × 10−5 (3 × 10−6) | −1.6 × 10−5 (2 × 10−6) | −3 × 10−5 (6 × 10−6) |
Density | -- | −9 × 10−6 (3 × 10−6) | 8 × 10−6 (3 × 10−6) | -- | 2 × 10−6 (1 × 10−6) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 1 × 10−6 (1 × 10−6) |
SES | -- | 0.349 (0.049) | 0.407 (0.047) | -- | −0.090 (0.011) | −0.055 (0.008) | −0.066 (0.009) | −0.172 (0.021) |
ProximityTA | -- | −0.015 (0.021) | −0.022 (0.020) | -- | 0.013 (0.004) | 0.010 (0.003) | 0.009 (0.004) | 0.052 (0.009) |
Age60 | -- | 0.702 (0.460) | 0.813 (0.456) | -- | −0.124 (0.071) | −0.183 (0.073) | −0.238 (0.066) | 0.048 (0.157) |
Age15 | -- | 0.928 (0.526) | 0.981 (0.497) | -- | −0.296 (0.121) | −0.196 (0.104) | −0.299 (0.116) | −0.064 (0.253) |
PersonHH | -- | 0.049 (0.037) | 0.047 (0.035) | -- | 0.025 (0.010) | 0.016 (0.007) | 0.013 (0.008) | 0.035 (0.018) |
RoomsHH | -- | 0.129 (0.150) | 0.159 (0.146) | -- | −0.007 (0.035) | 0.014 (0.029) | 0.021 (0.028) | 0.062 (0.051) |
NonVoter | -- | −1.542 (0.305) | −1.212 (0.301) | -- | −0.705 (0.133) | −0.371 (0.101) | −0.602 (0.113) | −0.867 (0.189) |
Controls | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
N | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 27,000 | 6750 |
Number of weeks | 19 | 19 | 19 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 20 | 5 |
Prob (F) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R2-overall | 0.039 | 0.058 | 0.178 | 0.113 | 0.126 | 0.468 | 0.481 | 0.747 |
Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome Term | Vac | Vac | Vac | Infect | Infect | Infect | Infect | Infect |
Constant | −1.944 (0.073) | −2.320 (0.375) | −3.236 (0.370) | −6.876 (0.007) | −6.496 (0.113) | −6.517 (0.082) | −6.409 (0.100) | −6.216 (0.202) |
RightCont | −0.608 (0.142) | −0.148 (0.188) | 0.249 (0.218) | 0.154 (0.016) | 0.133 (0.038) | −0.023 (0.029) | 0.011 (0.031) | 0.769 (0.163) |
OrthodoxCont | −1.145 0.103 | −0.293 (0.305) | 0.393 (0.299) | 0.755 (0.021) | 0.687 (0.063) | −0.232 (0.053) | −0.142 (0.053) | 0.749 (0.205) |
ArabCont | −0.826 (0.135) | −0.090 (0.236) | 0.068 (0.316) | 0.227 (0.023) | 0.205 (0.049) | −0.056 (0.038) | −0.056 (0.037) | −0.161 (0.153) |
Infectionst−1 | 0.515 (0.041) | −0.051 (0.018) | −0.021 (0.018) | 0.077 (0.028) | ||||
RightCont Infectionst−1 | −0.422 (0.068) | 0.250 (0.029) | 0.177 (0.033) | 0.204 (0.051) | ||||
OrthodoxCont Infectionst−1 | −0.403 (0.042) | 0.480 (0.020) | 0.434 (0.021) | 0.431 (0.045) | ||||
ArabCont Infectionst−1 | −0.201 (0.081) | 0.236 (0.023) | 0.212 (0.028) | 0.155 (0.045) | ||||
t | −0.082 (0.013) | |||||||
RightCont t | −0.308 (0.027) | |||||||
OrthodoxCont t | −0.377 (0.018) | |||||||
Arab t | 0.013 (0.030) | |||||||
Controls | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
N | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 27,000 | 6750 |
Number of weeks | 19 | 19 | 19 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 20 | 5 |
Prob (F) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R2-overall | 0.043 | 0.058 | 0.181 | 0.125 | 0.132 | 0.465 | 0.482 | 0.756 |
Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome Term | Vac | Infect | Infect | Infect | Vac | Infect | Infect | Infect |
Constant | −2.506 (0.329) | −6.403 (0.090) | −6.347 (0.106) | −4.782 (0.263) | −3.047 (0.328) | −6.539 (0.081) | −6.415 (0.099) | −5.568 (0.205) |
Left | −0.156 (0.089) | −0.047 (0.016) | −0.044 (0.015) | −0.697 (0.051) | −0.309 (0.097) | 0.064 (0.014) | 0.014 (0.015) | −0.277 (0.069) |
Center | −0.014 (0.047) | −0.020 (0.008) | −0.025 (0.009) | −0.241 (0.042) | −0.060 (0.053) | 0.037 (0.008) | 0.019 (0.009) | −0.034 (0.072) |
Orthodox | 0.019 (0.121) | 0.145 (0.027) | 0.154 (0.031) | 0.677 (0.085) | 0.382 (0.130) | −0.177 (0.023) | −0.164 (0.027) | −0.113 (0.151) |
Arab | 0.001 (0.131) | −0.070 (0.020) | −0.110 (0.022) | −1.096 (0.097) | −0.172 (0.217) | −0.013 (0.018) | −0.060 (0.017) | −1.042 (0.135) |
Z | 0.037 (0.021) | 0.129 (0.014) | 0.082 (0.023) | 0.124 (0.022) | 0.195 (0.018) | 0.117 (0.007) | 0.095 (0.008) | 0.184 (0.017) |
Left × Z | 0.599 (0.139) | −0.213 (0.031) | −0.167 (0.050) | −0.041 (0.045) | 0.215 (0.047) | −0.151 (0.013) | −0.118 (0.014) | −0.161 (0.028) |
Center × Z | 0.098 (0.040) | −0.076 (0.029) | −0.075 (0.033) | 0.002 (0.051) | 0.055 (0.019) | −0.063 (0.009) | −0.066 (0.010) | −0.070 (0.029) |
Orthodox × Z | 0.011 (0.048) | 0.308 (0.028) | 0.293 (0.042) | 0.029 (0.042) | −0.110 (0.017) | 0.185 (0.028) | 0.212 (0.015) | 0.211 (0.036) |
Arab × Z | 0.255 (0.106) | 0.010 (0.036) | 0.126 (0.062) | 0.006 (0.073) | 0.147 (0.065) | −0.023 (0.016) | 0.009 (0.021) | 0.009 (0.044) |
t | −0.375 (0.006) | −0.377 (0.007) | ||||||
Left × t | 0.191 (0.010) | 0.192 (0.010) | ||||||
Center × t | 0.054 (0.010) | 0.054 (0.011) | ||||||
Orthodox × t | −0.113 (0.016) | −0.167 (0.015) | ||||||
Arab × t | 0.237 (0.026) | 0.268 (0.025) | ||||||
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
N | 25,650 | 51,300 | 27,000 | 6,750 | 25,650 | 49,950 | 27,000 | 6750 |
Number of weeks | 19 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 20 | 5 |
Prob (F) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R2-overall | 0.070 | 0.173 | 0.199 | 0.702 | 0.147 | 0.324 | 0.352 | 0.720 |
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Variable | Description | Mean | Std | Min | Max | Right | Center | Left | Arab | Orthodox |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infections | Total number of weekly infections | 4.6 | 12.2 | 0 | 544 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 16.2 |
Vaccinations | Total number of weekly vaccinations | 195.4 | 169.9 | 0 | 2334 | 185.9 | 215.7 | 226.0 | 200.6 | 114.6 |
Ln (OddsInfect) | Log odds of weekly infections | −6.17 | 1.89 | −6.90 | 6.90 | −6.12 | −6.25 | −6.42 | −6.15 | −5.73 |
Ln (OddsVac) | Log odds of weekly vaccinations | −4.79 | 3.72 | −6.90 | 6.90 | −4.94 | −4.76 | −4.55 | −5.02 | −4.74 |
Right | Dummy variable equals 1 for right-leaning cluster | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0 | 1 | |||||
Center | Dummy variable equals 1 for center cluster | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0 | 1 | |||||
Left | Dummy variable equals 1 for left-leaning cluster | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 | |||||
Orthodox | Dummy variable equals 1 for Orthodox Jewish cluster | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | |||||
Arab | Dummy variable equals 1 for Arab cluster | 0.049 | 0.217 | 0 | 1 | |||||
RightCont | Share of votes for right-leaning parties | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
OrthodoxCont | Share of votes for Orthodox Jewish parties | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.85 |
ArabCont | Share of votes for United Arab List | |||||||||
NonVoter | Share of non-voters among those eligible to vote | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.86 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.3 | 0.38 | 0.27 |
Pop | Population size | 4589 | 2465 | 1974 | 27,768 | 4279 | 4454 | 4393 | 5796 | 5917 |
Density | Population density (Pop divided by geographic area in square kilometers) | 13,177 | 10,223 | 39.3 | 66,159 | 10,827 | 13,555 | 12,107 | 6888 | 26,198 |
SES | Socio-economic index score | 0.22 | 1.01 | −3.13 | 2.53 | −0.11 | 0.63 | 1.52 | −0.75 | −1.59 |
ProximityTA | Distance to Tel Aviv (index) | 0.68 | 0.93 | −4.97 | 1.48 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.16 | −0.06 | 0.77 |
Age60 | Share of population over the age of 60 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
Age15 | Share of population under the age of 15 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.65 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.43 |
PersonHH | Average number of persons in the household | 3.18 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 7.10 | 3.13 | 2.94 | 2.74 | 3.82 | 4.66 |
RoomsHH | Average number of rooms per person | 1.52 | 0.26 | 0.58 | 2.44 | 1.51 | 1.61 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.1 |
Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome Term | Vac | Vac | Vac | Infect | Infect | Infect | Infect | Infect |
Constant | −2.523 (0.024) | −2.482 (0.333) | −2.946 (0.325) | −6.671 (0.005) | −6.394 (0.097) | −6.638 (0.071) | −6.511 (0.089) | −5.950 (0.179) |
Left | 0.520 (0.065) | −0.073 (0.091) | −0.517 (0.097) | −0.154 (0.007) | −0.065 (0.017) | 0.089 (0.014) | 0.50 (0.015) | −0.161 (0.071) |
Center | 0.250 (0.046) | 0.014 (0.046) | −0.159 (0.054) | −0.077 (0.007) | −0.031 (0.010) | 0.050 (0.008) | 0.040 (0.008) | −0.016 (0.085) |
Orthodox | −0.456 (0.075) | 0.011 (0.122) | 0.253 (0.128) | 0.462 (0.020) | 0.229 (0.028) | −0.259 (0.023) | −0.211 (0.025) | −0.318 (0.137) |
Arab | −0.152 (0.100) | 0.119 (0.108) | −0.152 (0.201) | 0.001 (0.020) | −0.056 (0.022) | −0.021 (0.016) | −0.050 (0.015) | −0.775 (0.116) |
Infectionst−1 | 0.177 (0.018) | 0.179 (0.008) | 0.165 (0.009) | 0.272 (0.016) | ||||
Left Infectionst−1 | 0.343 (0.044) | −0.168 (0.014) | −0.129 (0.014) | −0.167 (0.027) | ||||
Center Infectionst−1 | 0.106 (0.018) | −0.071 (0.010) | −0.072 (0.010) | −0.065 (0.030) | ||||
Orthodox Infectionst−1 | −0.050 (0.017) | 0.217 (0.011) | 0.216 (0.014) | 0.235 (0.030) | ||||
Arab Infectionst−1 | 0.150 (0.060) | −0.010 (0.015) | 0.011 (0.021) | −0.028 (0.039) | ||||
t | −0.301 (0.007) | |||||||
Left t | 0.149 (0.011) | |||||||
Center t | 0.043 (0.011) | |||||||
Orthodox t | −0.121 (0.015) | |||||||
Arab t | 0.227 (0.024) | |||||||
Controls | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
N | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 51,300 | 27,000 | 6750 |
Number of weeks | 19 | 19 | 19 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 20 | 5 |
Prob(F) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R2-overall | 0.039 | 0.058 | 0.178 | 0.113 | 0.126 | 0.468 | 0.481 | 0.747 |
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Ben-Shahar, D.; Gabriel, S.; Golan, R. The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response. Vaccines 2023, 11, 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11061046
Ben-Shahar D, Gabriel S, Golan R. The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response. Vaccines. 2023; 11(6):1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11061046
Chicago/Turabian StyleBen-Shahar, Danny, Stuart Gabriel, and Roni Golan. 2023. "The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response" Vaccines 11, no. 6: 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11061046
APA StyleBen-Shahar, D., Gabriel, S., & Golan, R. (2023). The Role of Political Belief in COVID-19 Vaccine Resistance, Virus Transmission, and Closure Policy Response. Vaccines, 11(6), 1046. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11061046