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27 January 2026

Integrated Multi-Scale Risk Assessment of Reservoir Bank Collapse: A Case Study of Xiluodu Reservoir, China

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1
College of Geosciences and Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
2
College of Geospatial Information, Information Engineering University of the Strategic Support Force, Zhengzhou 450001, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Abstract

Reservoir bank collapse is a critical geological hazard during the operation of large-scale water conservancy projects, controlled by unique hydrodynamic mechanisms induced by reservoir impoundment, and differs significantly from ordinary landslides. Traditional risk assessment methods, however, often struggle to achieve effective integration between macro-regional zoning and micro-mechanical analysis. Against this limitation, this study proposes a GIS-integrated multi-scale risk screening framework to achieve the preliminary integration of qualitative regional evaluation and quantitative site-specific analysis. Compared with traditional multi-scale studies, the innovations of this research are as follows: (1) a customized GIS component was developed to realize semi-automatic profile extraction from high-resolution DEMs and batch Bishop stability calculations, overcoming the bottleneck of spatializing micro-models over large areas; (2) a “bottom-up” dynamic feedback mechanism was established, utilizing the quantitative safety factor from site-specific evaluations as an explicit indicator for the conservative screening correction of the macro-regional risk map. Applied to the Xiluodu Reservoir, this framework illustrates a potential multi-scale approach for cross-scale risk screening driven by physical–mechanical mechanisms. This provides both a global perspective and a localized physical basis, offering a strategic screening tool for reservoir management. By linking failure mechanisms directly to spatial impacts, the framework provides a plausible conservative feedback rule for risk-informed decision-making in complex reservoir settings.

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