Effectiveness of Alpine Protected Areas: An Evaluation of the Three-River-Source Nature Reserve Through Human Footprint Measurements

Protected areas play a critical role in conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet their effectiveness in mitigating anthropogenic pressures, particularly in fragile alpine ecosystems like the Three-River-Source region of the Qinghai Plateau—a vital water tower for Asia—requires long-term and rigorous assessment. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Three-River-Source Nature Reserve by analyzing spatiotemporal changes in the human footprint from 2000 to 2024. Utilizing a globally consistent human footprint dataset refined with high-resolution grazing intensity data for the Qinghai Plateau, we compared human footprint dynamics inside and outside the reserve and across its three functional zones (core, buffer, experimental). To isolate the policy effect, we employed a propensity score matching (PSM) approach to control for confounding geographical and socio-economic factors. Results indicate that while human pressure increased overall, the nature reserve was partially effective. The PSM-based comparison revealed that the increase in human footprint inside the nature reserve was lower than in matched external control areas. This effect was spatially heterogeneous and positively correlated with management intensity: it was most pronounced in the core zone, moderate in the buffer zone, and negligible in the experimental zone. The conservation outcomes showed notable improvement following policy enhancements, particularly after the national park’s formal establishment. The findings confirm the value of strict internal protection and functional zoning but highlight the challenge of intensifying peripheral pressures, underscoring the need for integrated landscape-level management strategies beyond the reserve’s boundaries to ensure long-term ecological integrity.