Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change

1. Introduction

The escalation in both frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events represents one of the most significant and immediate challenges posed by climate change. Such events can overwhelm hydrological systems, compromise water resource management, and exacerbate the vulnerability of both urban and rural communities [1,2]. Understanding the complex mechanisms that drive extreme precipitation, as well as their spatiotemporal variability, is therefore critical for shaping practical mitigation and adaptation responses. Recent advances in observational networks, remote sensing technologies, and climate modeling have provided unprecedented opportunities to examine extreme precipitation at multiple scales, from local storm events to regional climate patterns [3,4]. These developments enable researchers to identify trends, assess the contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic influences, and evaluate the potential impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. In addition, integrating observational data with statistical and physically based models allows for a more comprehensive assessment of risks associated with extreme rainfall, including floods, landslides, and soil erosion, as well as the cascading effects on water supply, eco-environment, agriculture, and infrastructure resilience [5].

This Special Issue, entitled “Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Under Climate Change”, assembles a collection of studies that address these challenges through diverse methodological approaches and cover a broad range of geographical regions. By combining observational analyses, climate model downscaling, hydrological simulations, and remote sensing techniques, the included contributions provide critical insights into both the characteristics and impacts of extreme precipitation events. Collectively, these works advance our understanding of precipitation extremes under a changing climate and support the development of evidence-based strategies for sustainable water management, disaster preparedness, and climate adaptation planning [6].

2. Overview of Contributions to This Special Issue

This Special Issue brings together nine peer-reviewed papers that advance our understanding of extreme precipitation under climate change, spanning a variety of regions, methodologies, and applications. Together, they shed light on forecasting challenges, observational patterns, and future climate projections, offering a comprehensive perspective on the drivers and impacts of precipitation extremes.

A subset of studies addresses forecasting and modeling challenges. Gallus et al. (contribution 1) examined errors in high-resolution ensemble forecasts of mesoscale convective systems in the United States during warm seasons (2018–2023). Using the method for object-based diagnostic evaluation, the authors identified displacement and area errors as primary contributors to forecast inaccuracies and highlighted seasonal variability, providing guidance for improving operational rainfall predictions. Similarly, Xiang et al. (contribution 2) evaluated flood forecasting in a mountainous basin by combining ensemble precipitation forecasts with multiple hydrological models. Applying generator-based post-processing to correct biases, they demonstrated enhanced prediction skill for lead times up to seven days, highlighting the value of multi-model and post-processing approaches in hydrological forecasting.

Several studies focus on observational analyses of precipitation extremes. Song et al. (contribution 3) investigated the effects of urbanization on extreme hourly precipitation across the Yangtze River Delta (1978–2012), revealing that urbanization generally amplifies extreme events, though the magnitude varies across space and time. Fattahi et al. (contribution 4) analyzed over 30 years of precipitation indices across Iran, finding increasing trends in the north and west and decreasing trends in the east and southeast, providing critical information for water management, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. Otop and Miszuk (contribution 5) investigated seasonal changes in extreme precipitation in the Sudetes Mountains and their northern foreland over 1961–2020, focusing on the role of atmospheric circulation. Using long-term observations from Polish and Czech stations, the study shows that trends in heavy precipitation vary by season, index, and location. The results highlight the combined effects of circulation and topography on extreme precipitation in Central Europe. Gu et al. (contribution 6) examined 40 years of erosive rainfall in Henan Province, China, demonstrating that monsoon-driven rainfall dominates erosive events. Their findings have direct applications in soil and water conservation, flood prediction, and ecological planning.

High-resolution and remote sensing approaches also feature prominently. Zhu et al. (contribution 7) employed the Forward-in-Time (FiT) algorithm to identify and characterize precipitation events across China. Their analysis revealed clear spatial gradients in rainfall totals, duration, and intensity, emphasizing the importance of event-based characterization for accurate hydrological modeling and water management. Looking toward the future, Try and Qin (contribution 8) evaluated climate extremes in Southeast Asia using downscaled CMIP6 projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. They reported significant increases in extreme precipitation and temperature events, along with seasonal shifts toward wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. Their study highlights the growing vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and heatwaves, offering important guidance for regional adaptation strategies. Finally, Kalbarczyk and Kalbarczyk (contribution 9) assessed trends in extreme daily precipitation in Poland over seven decades and mapped associated hazard zones. Their results provide valuable information for early warning systems, infrastructure planning, and disaster management.

Together, these nine papers illustrate the geographic breadth, methodological diversity, and practical relevance of contemporary research on extreme precipitation. By integrating observational analyses, modeling frameworks, and climate projections, they contribute to a deeper understanding of precipitation extremes and support informed strategies for climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable water management.

3. Future Perspectives

The contributions in this Special Issue highlight the complex nature of extreme precipitation and emphasize the need for sustained research to better understand its drivers, impacts, and associated risks. Moving forward, future studies should prioritize the integration of high-resolution climate simulations with impact-oriented risk assessment frameworks, enabling more precise projections of extreme events and their potential consequences for water resources, infrastructure, and communities [7,8]. Interdisciplinary collaboration will be essential to advance predictive capabilities and resilience planning. By linking expertise across hydrology, meteorology, urban planning, engineering, and data science, researchers can develop holistic approaches that account for both physical processes and societal vulnerabilities [9,10]. In particular, the regional differences revealed across the studies indicate that localized analyses, informed by standardized data collection, rigorous quality control, and consistent model evaluation protocols, are critical for generating reliable and actionable insights. Global coordination among research institutions, government agencies, and international organizations is also necessary to ensure that scientific advancements are translated into effective climate adaptation strategies [11,12]. Continuous improvements in statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, uncertainty quantification, and socio-hydrological modeling will provide stronger scientific foundations for adaptive water management [13,14,15,16]. Ultimately, such efforts will enhance preparedness for extreme precipitation events, reduce societal and ecological risks, and support adaptive management of water resources under a changing climate.