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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Quantification of Seasonal Precipitation over the upper Chao Phraya River Basin in the Past Fifty Years Based on Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation Related Climate Indices

1
Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama 226-8503, Japan
2
Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(6), 800; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060800
Received: 29 April 2018 / Revised: 1 June 2018 / Accepted: 13 June 2018 / Published: 17 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Catchment Management and Reservoir Operation)
For better water resources management, we proposed a method to estimate basin-scale seasonal rainfall over selected areas of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, from existing climate indices that represent variations in the Asian summer monsoon, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. The basin-scale seasonal rainfall between 1965 and 2015 was calculated for the upper Ping River Basin (PRB) and the upper Nan River Basin (NRB) from a gridded rainfall dataset and rainfall data collected at several gauging stations. The corresponding climate indices, i.e., the Equatorial-Southern Oscillation Index (EQ-SOI), Indian Monsoon Index (IMI), and SST-related indices, were examined to quantify seasonal rainfall. Based on variations in the rainfall anomaly and each climate index, we found that IMI is the primary variable that can explain variations in seasonal rainfall when EQ-SOI is negative. Through a multiple regression analysis, we found that EQ-SOI and two SST-related indices, i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) and SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific (SSTNW), can quantify the seasonal rainfall for years with positive EQ-SOI. The seasonal rainfall calculated for 1975 to 2015 based on the proposed method was highly correlated with the observed rainfall, with correlation coefficients of 0.8 and 0.86 for PRB and NRB, respectively. These results suggest that the existing indices are useful for quantifying basin-scale seasonal rainfall, provided a proper classification and combination of the climate indices are introduced. The developed method could forecast seasonal rainfall over the target basins if well-forecasted climate indices are provided with sufficient leading time. View Full-Text
Keywords: seasonal rainfall; upper Chao Phraya River Basin; El Niño/Southern Oscillation; Indian Monsoon; sea surface temperatures seasonal rainfall; upper Chao Phraya River Basin; El Niño/Southern Oscillation; Indian Monsoon; sea surface temperatures
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Kinouchi, T.; Yamamoto, G.; Komsai, A.; Liengcharernsit, W. Quantification of Seasonal Precipitation over the upper Chao Phraya River Basin in the Past Fifty Years Based on Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation Related Climate Indices. Water 2018, 10, 800.

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